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- Politics
- Scroll.in
Why India's plans to counter China's mega dam in Tibet may falter
The Yarlung Tsangpo river originates in the mountains of western Tibet, and flows eastwards through the Tibet Autonomous Region. It then enters Arunachal Pradesh, where it is known as the Siang. Then, it flows further downstream to Assam, from when it is widely known as the Brahmaputra. This river is currently the site of an intensifying conflict between India and China over the control, ownership and use of its waters. While the threat of competition for this water has always loomed large, it began to take firmer shape in July, when China began construction of a 60-gigawatt hydropower project in Medog, just 30 km north of Arunachal Pradesh. The dam is set to be the world's largest in terms of hydropower capacity – the current largest one, the Three Gorges Dam, also in China, has a capacity of 22.5 gigawatts. These plans have alarmed India. Ministers have described the dam as a 'water bomb' that China can weaponise – either by withholding water to India, or suddenly releasing it in large volumes, which can wreak destruction downstream. In response, India has been pushing forward with plans to build the 11-gigawatt Siang upper multipurpose project in Arunachal Pradesh's Siang district. The dam at Siang could help mitigate some of these probable risks of the Chinese dam, Indian authorities have argued. The government had been considering the project since 2017, when the Niti Ayog proposed it. In February 2022, the Ministry of Jal Shakti formed a technical group to finalise the dam's height. A month later, they recorded their findings in a report, asserting that the Siang Upper dam 'will act as a flood cushion in case of sudden release of flood due to breach in natural and man made storages' in China's proposed dam at Medog. The document noted that the dam would also help regulate glacial floods on the river, and thus minimise losses to local livelihoods. But experts warn that the Indian dam will be of limited use in these respects. Rather than offer any protection from China, India's dam will only serve as a marker of its claims over the river, experts argued. As India sees it, 'if they do not construct a dam on the Brahmaputra, then we will not have water rights over the river', said Sumit Vij, assistant professor at Netherlands-based Wageningen University, who has worked extensively on the Brahmaputra basin. The dam has also raised fears of damage to the local environment and destruction of livelihoods. Thirteen villages in Arunachal Pradesh are to be completely submerged, including agricultural fields where the Adi community grows ginger, cardamom, and paddy. Locals are also concerned that the dam will restrict sediment flow in the river. Communities in the region have been protesting against the project since 2024, noting that the government was pushing it through without adequately consulting them, and by deploying armed forces and police to quell objections. Such conflict is regrettable, particularly since, to achieve the tangible results of the kind the government seeks, 'there has to be a diplomatic solution, a dialogue solution, and not a dam solution', Vij noted. He added, 'If they get into this dam race, India will harm its own environment much more than what is expected to be harmed by China.' Scroll emailed the Ministry of Jal Shakti, seeking responses to questions about the rationale behind the construction of the dam and its planned functions. This story will be updated if it responds. Flood moderation or hydropower generation? The government intends for the Upper Siang dam to perform more than one function. Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu said the dam 'is not just about generating power, but also about maintaining the natural flow of the Siang river and mitigating potential flood risks from water releases by China'. But experts argue that such a goal is unrealistic. If the Siang dam's main function is to mitigate against the risk of floods, they said, other functions, such as hydropower generation, would have to take a back seat. A key reason for this is that since the Siang dam is a hydropower project, water levels of its reservoir would typically be kept high. Soumya Dutta, a visiting senior fellow at Impact and Policy Research Institute who works on energy and climate, noted that 'for creating electricity, dam officials keep the reservoir levels at full capacity to maximise the energy potential'. If China withheld water or released excess water, the Siang dam would allow India to 'moderate these daily cycles of peaks and troughs of water for a few days'. But because it would have a limited buffer capacity, 'beyond that, if there is a heavy rainfall or a sudden release, the dam will not be able to hold it back', Dutta explained. This risk is exacerbated by the geographical limitations the Siang dam will face. Dutta noted that a crucial feature of a dam designed for flood control is a large reservoir. The government is proposing to build a reservoir in Siang – but the geography of the region will only allow for a narrow and deep reservoir, as opposed to the wide ones found in some dams elsewhere in India, like the Nagarjuna Sagar dam, jointly operated by Andhra Pradesh and Telangana to control floods. In such broad reservoirs, flood control can be carried out even by keeping water levels 'just a little low', Dutta said. In deep reservoirs, however, maintaining a buffer capacity to guard against floods would mean necessarily keeping water levels much lower, which would impinge on hydropower generation capacity. Dams that prioritise hydropower generation are, in fact, generally prone to causing flooding when there is a sudden inflow of water into their reservoirs – Dutta noted that many independent experts argued that is what happened in the 2018 floods in Kerala. Indeed, concerns about the construction of the Siang dam do not only revolve around its efficacy – but also about the effects that it might have downstream in Assam, if the dam releases large volumes of water to prevent flooding around it. 'Unfortunately, there is no bioregional understanding of rivers,' in India, said Mirza Zulfiqur Rahman, visiting associate fellow at Delhi-based Institute of Chinese Studies. Such an approach takes into account the fact that 'if you create something upstream of the river basin, it will have an impact downstream, and also vice-versa', he added. More deliberation needed The canyon where the Medog dam will be built is one of the deepest in the world, and plunges to depths of more than 5,000 metres. The river's fall over this canyon generates massive amounts of energy, making it an ideal site for a large hydropower plant. China has spent decades studying the site and drawing up plans for the dam's construction. Experts fear that if India now rushes to catch up with its neighbour, its own dam will not be built in the most optimal way. 'China has spent years studying the geomorphology and understanding the advantage of gradient that it has to build the dam there,' said Rahman. In this regard, India is '15-20 years behind China', Rahman said. At the moment, the government is attempting to conduct a survey, based on which it would draw up a 'pre-feasibility report' of the dam in Siang. This is only one of the first steps of the process, Rahman explained. 'You need to have a long-term research analysis in order to back up your structural interventions,' he said. This work would have helped India understand the area's hydrology more precisely, and identify potential sites for the dam. He further explained that such research could have helped minimise the likelihood of protests among local communities, since information about the project could have been communicated to people on the ground in a timely way. At present, he argued, sufficient hard data about the project has not been shared with local communities, which is leading to increased speculation among them. 'If India would have invested time and money in understanding the river basin in the last 20 years, India could have been in a much better position to design a dam that could perhaps counter the Medog dam,' Rahman said. No treaty India and China both feel a strong need to demonstrate ownership over the river in this region, experts noted, because there is no international law, transboundary institution, or treaty for the Brahmaputra basin that inscribes how its water should be shared. All the four countries that use the basin – China, Bhutan, India, and Bangladesh – have diverse interests, ranging from hydropower generation to flood management and economic development. But so far, discussions between them on cooperating over the river have been limited. In 1997, more than one hundred countries came together to adopt the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, which sets out a framework for countries that have to share waters. It mandates that signatories have to share hydrological, meteorological, hydrogeological and ecological data with each other, and that conflicts be resolved 'with special regard being given to the requirements of vital human needs'. But other than Bangladesh, none of the other countries in the Brahmaputra basin signed to be party to it. 'That made it very clear that India and China did not want to engage in a multilateral diplomatic negotiation where there could be a third-party mediation,' said Vij. 'It could have allowed for a more just, equal playing field for all actors, but the downside is that it would take longer time to negotiate between the countries.' Instead, India and China signed a memorandum of understanding in 2002 aimed at helping India take steps towards flood control and mitigate the risks of disasters. Under this memorandum, China would provide hydrological information of the river to India in both the flood and non-flood season. This memorandum was renewed in 2008 and 2013 – China temporarily paused it in 2017 after the two countries clashed in Doklam, and renewed it again in 2018. But the memorandum expired in June 2023 and has not been renewed since. In any case, Vij noted that as a mechanism, a memorandum of understanding 'can be a weak institutional mechanism for water-sharing'. Rahman added that while agreements act as 'bricks of confidence building', they are not as strongly backed by international law, and can be withdrawn more easily. In contrast, under international law, treaties are typically far more comprehensive, and carry more weight. Thus, they usually 'lead to cooperation and better understanding between the riparian states', said Vij. Indeed, though India and China signed the memorandum, the process of sharing data has been fraught, Vij wrote in a 2017 paper. Such sharing is typically a means of building trust between countries, but 'in the specific case of the Brahmaputra the lack of a data sharing procedure at the basin level has fostered mistrust between the riparian countries and hindered regional cooperation', he wrote. Further, he noted, 'The power asymmetry between the countries and the broader political context, which currently considers all hydrological data relating to international borders as classified, make the process of sharing data complex.' That has left the two countries in a race to create large infrastructure in the Himalaya, which can be disastrous not just to the topography, but also to local indigenous populations. 'In the way the dam construction is going on, it probably will not have an impact on what the Chinese are doing as much as it will have on their own population, people, nature and ecology,' said Vij.
Indian Express
23-06-2025
- Science
- Indian Express
The dangers of what we don't know: China's dam project and its effect on Brahmaputra needs more attention
Written by Anamika Barua, Sumit Vij and Ashim Sattar On December 25, 2024, China approved the construction of the Medog Dam, set to be the world's largest, on the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra in India). This decision has ignited widespread concern, particularly regarding its ecological and downstream impacts on India and Bangladesh. While some experts contend that the Brahmaputra's perennial flow and abundant water supply mean the dam will not significantly alter its course, others suggest it could even help regulate floods. However, these arguments coexist with an acknowledgement: The Brahmaputra River Basin remains one of the most under-researched river systems in the world. This supports the uncomfortable truth that the scientific understanding of the basin remains woefully inadequate. In the face of such uncertainties, is it reasonable to assert that the dam will have 'no impact' or dismiss biophysical and human concerns as media sensationalism? Despite its robust models and extensive research, even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) avoids making absolute claims. Science thrives on probabilistic reasoning, preparing policymakers for various possible outcomes. Shouldn't we, as scientists, exercise similar caution and rigour before drawing definitive conclusions such as 'no impacts'? The challenges of climate variability The lack of scientific understanding of the Brahmaputra raises a pressing question: If there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that upstream dams will cause the river to dry up, is there sufficient data to claim it will remain unaffected? This uncertainty is particularly critical given the erratic impacts of climate change. Although the Brahmaputra benefits from abundant annual precipitation, shifting precipitation patterns introduce complexities that require deeper research. A recent study published in Water Conservation Science and Engineering (2024), which examined precipitation extremes in the Brahmaputra River Basin using NEX-GDDP datasets, reveals notable shifts in precipitation patterns across the region. In the upper Brahmaputra region (Tibet), consecutive wet days are projected to increase, leading to intense rainfall and heightened flood risks. Conversely, the lower basin (Assam) is likely to face more consecutive dry days, resulting in prolonged dry spells. These projections challenge the assumption that precipitation patterns will remain stable. In this context, India's dependence on upstream China is set to grow. During the wet season, uncoordinated water releases from Chinese dams could exacerbate flooding in downstream regions like Assam and Bangladesh, particularly during the monsoon. For China, such releases would enhance power generation, but for downstream communities, they would mean heightened flood risks. During the dry season, extended dry spells downstream would increase reliance on upstream water releases, complicating water management efforts. Research conducted under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios underscores these challenges and highlights the urgent need for collaborative water governance and robust scientific investigation. Geopolitical and ecological implications The Medog Dam is touted as a run-of-the-river project with minimal downstream impact. Yet, China's lack of transparency and halted data sharing prevent India and Bangladesh from verifying these claims. The 2023 expiry of the India-China hydrological data-sharing agreement — crucial for flood preparedness in downstream states like Assam — adds to the uncertainty, with little public discussion on its renewal or improvement. Assam, already hit by pre-monsoon floods affecting nearly 7 lakh people, faces heightened vulnerability without timely data. The 2017 Doklam crisis showed the consequences of China's discontinuation of sharing hydrological information, coinciding with severe Assam floods. Without reliable data, flood forecasting and preparedness is difficult, leaving millions exposed. Robust data-sharing and transparency are essential for managing this fragile river system. Beyond flow concerns, the dam's location in Medog County — a seismically active zone and epicentre of the 1950 Assam-Tibet earthquake that altered the Brahmaputra's course — raises serious safety questions. Situated on a major tectonic fault, the dam faces high structural risks. Building without thorough geomorphological, seismic, and hydrological studies would be reckless, threatening not only the dam but also millions downstream. China must be held accountable to ensure that downstream nations know how dam safety will be guaranteed through joint research for the entire basin. International cooperation and transparency are critical to prevent potentially catastrophic impacts on this vital and vulnerable region. The overlooked role of glaciers Another critical yet under-discussed aspect is the role of glacier meltwater in sustaining the Brahmaputra's flows, especially during the dry seasons. Originating from glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau, these glaciers act as natural reservoirs, supporting irrigation, hydropower, and ecosystems. However, the contribution of glacier meltwater to the river system remains poorly quantified. Without precise data on the volume of water stored in these glaciers and their seasonal melt contributions, it is challenging to plan effectively for future water availability. Further, the long-term impacts of climate change on these glaciers will not remain static, further complicating the dynamics of glacier melt runoff to the Brahmaputra River. The health of these glaciers depends largely on their mass balance, which is influenced by precipitation in the form of snowfall at high altitudes. Understanding the variability of future solid precipitation in the basin requires robust scientific expertise to assess the glaciers' health and their evolving role in sustaining the river's flow. Addressing these knowledge gaps is vital to developing adaptive water management strategies for the Brahmaputra basin in the face of a changing climate. Current debates often emphasise monsoon-fed systems, overlooking the critical role of dry-season flows sustained by glacier melt. This omission leaves significant gaps in understanding the river's year-round dynamics. To claim that the Tibetan glaciers have no role whatsoever in sustaining the Brahmaputra's flows is, at best, an understatement, given the limited knowledge and data available on this aspect. The way forward The Medog Dam underscores the urgent need for transparency, cooperation, and comprehensive research. Downstream nations must push for multilateral negotiations on data-sharing and joint research to explain the basin-wide impacts of water infrastructure. Instead of dismissing concerns about China's dam projects, India and Bangladesh should seek alliances to advocate for collaborative management of the Brahmaputra River Basin. The stakes are too high to ignore. Without robust science and cooperative frameworks, the Medog Dam may become not just a marvel of engineering but a flashpoint for environmental, geopolitical, and social disasters. The scientific community needs to refrain from creating lop-sided narratives of 'no impact' as this could undermine India's negotiating position with China. Instead, we must promote an evidence-based narrative that water infrastructure on the Brahmaputra will be the point of conflict in the near future. We must accept the future challenges and start working towards science to develop a negotiated solution portfolio for the next generation of South Asia. Anamika Barua is Professor, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati; Sumit Vij is Assistant Professor, Wageningen University, the Netherlands; Ashim Sattar, Assistant Professor, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneshwar
