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2026 Oscars: Contenders, analysis, and way-too-early predictions

It's never too early to start thinking about the Oscars. Summer blockbuster season is just about over, paving the way for fall festival season. Many of the projected contenders at the 2026 Oscars will screen at one of the major festivals in the coming months. Places like Telluride, Venice, Toronto, and New York will serve as the springboard for many awards season campaigns. Admittedly, the 2026 Oscars are seven months away, and a lot can change from now until March 26. However, some movies have already begun their campaigns. Others have generated considerable buzz and will launch to the top of the race once they hit theaters. For now, let's break down the contenders and make our predictions. Sinners dominated the first half of the year The first half of the 2025 movie calendar will be remembered for one thing (besides chicken jockey): Sinners. Ryan Coogler's vampiric horror became a phenomenon. A $100 million budget for an original story presents a significant risk in today's Hollywood. Recommended Videos However, Sinners became an event, thanks to its savvy marketing campaign, sensational music, and IMAX format. Coogler's 10-minute video about aspect ratios was a stroke of genius, as it persuaded audiences to see it on the biggest screen possible. In the lead-up to the release, the trades began reporting what Sinners needed to make to be profitable. Puck's Matt Belloni set the Sinners' profitability line at $300 million. Released in April 2025, Sinners overperformed in its first weekend with an opening of $48 million in the United States and Canada. Sinners benefited from a strong word-of-mouth reception, resulting in a $45.7 million haul in its second weekend. With a 4.9% drop, Sinners had the third-best second-weekend performance for a film that made over $40 million. Critics also positively responded to Coogler's epic horror. 'Sinners is a fantastic and frightening masterpiece from one of cinema's best, most ambitious directors,' Digital Trends' Anthony Orlando wrote in his five-star review. Its box office success and critical acclaim make Sinners a serious awards contender, with a legitimate claim to be the frontrunner as of August 3. Sinners feels a lot like Get Out — a first-half-of-the-year release that will only gain more momentum in awards season. A Best Picture nomination should be a lock, along with screenplay and several below-the-line categories. Coogler should be in the running for Best Director. Can Michael B. Jordan get a spot in Best Actor? As of now, he's in, but we'll see how the rest of the year pans out. The 'It's Time' nominee One of the actors or directors this season will run an 'it's time' campaign. What does that mean? Every year, voters decide to reward one actor, actress, or director with a nomination to celebrate their respective career. 'It's time for their person to be recognized for their achievements.' Perhaps this person has not won a major award, or they've never been nominated. Last year, look at Demi Moore, who was fantastic in The Substance. The entire film community rallied around Moore, an actor for over 40 years, and propelled her to her first Oscar nomination. I look at three candidates this year who can run on the 'it's time' campaign. The first is Adam Sandler, and no, it's not for Happy Gilmore 2. The Sandman has never been nominated for an Oscar, with many citing Uncut Gems as the movie that should have resulted in a nomination. Sandler is one of the stars of Jay Kelly, Noah Baumbach's new movie for Netflix. George Clooney stars as Jay Kelly, a famous actor, while Sandler plays his manager. Early speculation is that Netflix will campaign hard for Sandler in the supporting actor category. Perhaps Sandler will become the next Laura Dern, who won the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress in Baumbach's Marriage Story. In that same supporting category, Stellan Skarsgård might be the favorite to win for his performance in Sentimental Value. Shockingly, Skarsgård has never been nominated for an Academy Award. Winning an Oscar for your first nomination would be a nice way to acknowledge Skarsgård for a fantastic career. The next candidate is Paul Thomas Anderson. PTA is back in the Oscars mix with his new film, One Battle After Another, which stars Leonardo DiCaprio. The action comedy carries the biggest budget — $140 million — of PTA's career. Someone who attended a test screening called the film 'bats— crazy,' which excites me even more. Anderson has 11 Oscar nominations and zero wins. It's time for PTA to get his little gold man. The Marty Supreme conundrum I said most, not all, of the contenders will be heading to the fall festivals. One of the noteworthy movies skipping the major festivals is Marty Supreme, Josh Safdie's A24 sports dramedy starring Timothée Chalamet. The movie is about Marty Mauser, a ping-pong hustler who becomes an integral figure in the world of table tennis. Marty Supreme is Safdie's first movie since the split with his brother Benny. Why would a potential contender skip the fall festival circuit? For starters, I don't think it's finished. A24 also has a lot riding on Marty Supreme financially. It has a $70 million budget, the most expensive film in A24's history. If A24 had to choose between profit and Oscars, my guess is they want Marty Supreme to be profitable. A24 wishes to make more movies with bigger budgets, and if Marty Supreme is a success, this will only support that decision to make bigger movies. However, A24 wants to have its cake and eat it, too. If Marty Supreme can turn a profit and win Oscars, they'll take it. Let's see if Chalamet can go on another generational press run like he did for A Complete Unknown. 2026 Oscars: Predictions Best Picture Avatar: Fire and Ash Bugonia Hamnet Jay Kelly Marty Supreme One Battle After Another Sinners* Sentimental Value Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere Wicked: For Good Best Director Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelley Ryan Coogler, Sinners* Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value Chloé Zhao, Hamnet Best Actor Michael B. Jordan, Sinners Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere* Best Actress Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You Jessie Buckley, Hamnet Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value* Best Supporting Actor Delroy Lindo, Sinners Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly Andrew Scott, Blue Moon Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere Best Supporting Actress Laura Dern, Jay Kelly Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value* Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners *= predicted winner