Latest news with #SwaminathanAiyar
Economic Times
a day ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Market consolidating now, poised for upswing in H2: Sachin Shah
Live Events You Might Also Like: India-UK trade deal not historic but should help Indian workers in UK: Swaminathan Aiyar You Might Also Like: Are current market valuations hiding opportunities or risks? Christy Mathai explains (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel , Fund Manager,, says the Indian economy is poised for a significant upswing in the latter half of the fiscal year, coinciding with an earlier festival season starting in September. Stimulus from regulators and supportive global inflation, particularly in oil and metal prices, are expected to boost demand. Domestic businesses are performing well, with leaders excelling and selective capital expenditure showing positive are right. We are seeing a good amount of consolidation but within the markets, within the sectors we are seeing that there is a decent amount of divergence and more importantly since we are in the midst of an earning season, we are seeing decent kind of results, from the likes of HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank or for that matter even companies like Eternal , Paytm, Laurus Labs.I am giving names across sectors, across largecaps and midcaps. So, wherever the results have been very decent, markets have rewarded, markets seem to be giving a vote of confidence over there. Wherever there have been some challenges with the results, we are seeing some disappointment; but again over there, we are not seeing a very sharp knee-jerk reaction. We are seeing that investors are probably going to put in more on hold rather than a selloff and basically, we will probably wait out for another couple of quarters because a lot of actions that we have seen at the ground level in terms of whether it was the RBI rate cuts, whether it is the tax breaks, whether it is the liquidity push, lower inflation, should probably start playing out in the next two-three quarters and maybe during the festival probably that is the hope. Overall, wherever good results are seen, we are seeing decent traction. Wherever, the results are not so good, probably markets are putting them on hold.A lot of factors, as far as macros are concerned, seem to be in favour of the Indian economy to start doing much better, particularly in the second half of this financial year which is during the festival season. In fact, this time, the festival season is going to be a little earlier. So, maybe sometime in September, October, November, we should see a decent amount of demand coming back and clearly it is getting a lot of stimulus from the regulator side, plus the global inflation is also very supportive – be it oil prices or a lot of other ferrous and non-ferrous metal of that should really help as far as the demand pickup is concerned. Even when you see some of the earning season at this point in time, most of the domestic businesses seem to be doing reasonably okay and within that, the leaders are doing even very big thing is in terms of selective capex also, when we hear some of the management commentaries in this earning season, that also seems to be under a good trajectory. Overall, we believe that the current earning season is panning out fairly decent and probably the second and third quarters should do even are right. Basically, all the macros being very positive for the Indian economy, there is just one big overhang, the tariffs. Again, the tariffs relative to the other countries, is something that we need to watch out for. As far as the pharma sector is concerned, we have been fairly constructive on this sector for almost the last two, three, four years or maybe even longer and within that, we have been very strongly positioned as far as the CDMO, the CRAMs (the contract research and manufacturing space) is whether it is Divi's Lab, or Laurus Lab, we have been owners of these businesses for a while now and we believe that these are businesses which are like have a secular theme for the next three to five years, not only China plus one but even Europe plus one in terms of the outsourcing as a theme and companies, all the companies in these sectors, particularly the leaders have actually established with their customers their right to win in terms of their domain expertise, in terms of the setting up very large capacities. Even currently, the kind of the capex announcements that we are hearing from these companies is really large. Something we have not seen cumulatively for the last five-seven years is what we are going to see in the next two-three years, so that is another very important third very important thing is the kind of comfort that they give to their customers in terms of respecting their intellectual property rights because a lot of these companies work on patented products or some of these NCPs, and that comfort as far as their confidentiality on their IPRs is also very that is one space that has long legs, at least for the next three-seven years. We continue to be very positive on that. Tariff on that, I understand, is also a function of the value proposition that these companies bring to their customers. If they have a strong value proposition compared to the other countries or the companies in the other countries, they will find their way out.: No, we definitely believe that as far as exports are concerned, and auto components are concerned, we have a very large opportunity, very similar to pharma. Our companies have established the right to win. They have relationships with a lot of these customers as they have been supplying them components. They are also supplying large OEs globally. In fact, not only globally, but even in India, there is a very long gestation period as far as the product approvals are concerned and our companies have already surpassed those hurdles. They have the confidence of their global customers in terms of their quality checks, so that is very another very important thing is in terms of the domestic side because today domestic is still a very large market for our OEs and there we are not seeing very great numbers in the last at least three-four months in this financial year or maybe even the last six months. But there the hope is that with all the measures that both the government and the RBI has taken in the last few months, at the ground level, we should see demand coming back very strongly.
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Automotive
- Economic Times
There is more scope for Indian investment in the UK than the other way around: Swaminathan Aiyar
Swaminathan Aiyar, Consulting Editor, ET Now, says India stands as a prominent investor in the UK, with the Tata Group leading as the largest private sector employer. Enhanced by relaxed social security deductions for IT workers, increased Indian investment in the UK's IT sector appears promising. Opportunities also exist for Indian professionals in finance, media, and sports, potentially fostering a beneficial two-way exchange of skills and remittances. ADVERTISEMENT But the list is long when it comes to some labour intensive sectors, be it from auto ancillary to leather to processed food. Which can be the biggest beneficiary according to you? Swaminathan Aiyar: The government is anxious to emphasise that there will be job creation in artisanal, labour-intensive sectors like leather or textiles or auto ancillaries. I would just say that in the long run, we need to look away from the labour-intensive field. Our comparative advantage is in skills. We are very competitive in skills. We are not competitive on labour costs for there are a large number of issues on the labour side. It includes the very large number of holidays we have in India compared with anybody else, and relatively short hours of work. Because of all this, I do not think India has a great advantage in the labour-intensive sector which the government claims it wants to promote as our labour laws do not really promote that. So that is the real problem, our own labour laws, not the trade barriers in Europe, not the trade barriers in the UK. And we would have to do something about that. In auto ancillaries, we can certainly have a move up. The British car industry has disappeared in terms of British names, but the multinationals of the world are there, certainly the Japanese and Korean companies and we can export there and hopefully at some point of time, we will even be able to export to Jaguar which is very high-end in terms of the auto parts, but Tata owns it. We are not competitive in large cars, but we are definitely competitive in small cars. For countries in Europe, and in England, small cars are preferable, whereas in the USA, it is large cars. Small cars are preferable because of very high prices of petrol and because of a lack of parking spaces. Americans have huge parking spaces for their large cars. Britain and Europe are much more constrained by space. So, our small car exports should have a chance of rising significantly. It will also depend of course on what happens to the tariffs of various rivals. Malaysia, Thailand, China, all of these are competitors in small car areas. So, I am not sure what will happen out there, but if we have a good deal, if we have a very low tariff regime and they do not, that will clearly give us a benefit in the UK. Does the FTA lay groundwork for wider cooperation in technology, green energy, and mobility? Will it also help boost investments in a meaningful way according to you? Swaminathan Aiyar: There are a number of issues. As far as investment is concerned, will this help mutual investment? Will this help Indian investment in the UK? Will it help British investment in India? I am not sure to what extent it will boost British investment in India. The reason is that Britain hardly produces many goods anymore. It used to be a large exporter of goods, but it has substantially deindustrialised and become a services sector. So, it will want to do something more on the services sector which we should allow because we are competitive in services, we should allow them to come in. But again, if somebody comes into the services with a GCC, it will not involve very much investment. It will certainly generate revenue. It will help generate skills. It will be skilling of the Indian workforce. There will be exports involved, but do not expect very heavy investment. It does not take a lot of heavy investment to start an R&D centre into artificial intelligence. So that is the kind of thing the British may be investing in India. ADVERTISEMENT India is one of the biggest investors in the UK. The Tata Group is the largest single employer in the private sector in the entire United Kingdom. I mean, it has TCS, it has Jaguar, and it has its steel plant out there and those together are a massive amount of investment, a massive amount of jobs. Will that trend increase? Yes, it could increase. But as I said, that is now fundamentally a services economy. It is no longer a large-scale producer of merchandise. So, can Indian companies like TCS which are already well established increase their footprint? Yes, I should think so, especially now that there is this freedom in terms of social security deductions. Earlier, if an IT worker went there, a significant part of his salary was cut saying this is a social security contribution although he would never get it back as a pension in his old age. Now that that is being waived for three years, we will be able to send lots more people for up to three years and this should induce much more Indian investment in the IT sector there. I hope that happens. It looks promising. Of course, the other thing is that will there be more Indian writers for Financial Times and The Economist or more Indian footballers going into the Premier League, some of these areas and of course, there is the stock market. I mean, Britain is a highly financialised market with a huge stock market. It already has a significant number of Indian names that are already well known. I imagine that number could go up. How many of them would retain a close connection with India? I am not sure. But you could hope that a significant number of people go there and they improve their skills, send home remittances, and later on perhaps come back and open businesses here, so that is what we look forward to, something happening two-way and on this frankly I see more scope for Indian investment in the UK than the other way around. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
2 days ago
- Automotive
- Time of India
There is more scope for Indian investment in the UK than the other way around: Swaminathan Aiyar
Live Events You Might Also Like: India-UK trade deal not historic but should help Indian workers in UK: Swaminathan Aiyar You Might Also Like: Be Ready to Export: India-UK FTA is a transformational leap (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel , Consulting Editor, ET Now, says India stands as a prominent investor in the UK, with the Tata Group leading as the largest private sector employer. Enhanced by relaxed social security deductions for IT workers, increased Indian investment in the UK's IT sector appears promising. Opportunities also exist for Indian professionals in finance, media, and sports, potentially fostering a beneficial two-way exchange of skills and government is anxious to emphasise that there will be job creation in artisanal, labour-intensive sectors like leather or textiles or auto ancillaries. I would just say that in the long run, we need to look away from the labour-intensive field. Our comparative advantage is in skills. We are very competitive in skills. We are not competitive on labour costs for there are a large number of issues on the labour side. It includes the very large number of holidays we have in India compared with anybody else, and relatively short hours of work. Because of all this, I do not think India has a great advantage in the labour-intensive sector which the government claims it wants to promote as our labour laws do not really promote that. So that is the real problem, our own labour laws, not the trade barriers in Europe, not the trade barriers in the UK. And we would have to do something about auto ancillaries, we can certainly have a move up. The British car industry has disappeared in terms of British names, but the multinationals of the world are there, certainly the Japanese and Korean companies and we can export there and hopefully at some point of time, we will even be able to export to Jaguar which is very high-end in terms of the auto parts, but Tata owns it. We are not competitive in large cars, but we are definitely competitive in small countries in Europe, and in England, small cars are preferable, whereas in the USA, it is large cars. Small cars are preferable because of very high prices of petrol and because of a lack of parking spaces. Americans have huge parking spaces for their large cars. Britain and Europe are much more constrained by space. So, our small car exports should have a chance of rising significantly. It will also depend of course on what happens to the tariffs of various rivals. Malaysia, Thailand, China, all of these are competitors in small car areas. So, I am not sure what will happen out there, but if we have a good deal, if we have a very low tariff regime and they do not, that will clearly give us a benefit in the are a number of issues. As far as investment is concerned, will this help mutual investment? Will this help Indian investment in the UK? Will it help British investment in India? I am not sure to what extent it will boost British investment in India. The reason is that Britain hardly produces many goods anymore. It used to be a large exporter of goods, but it has substantially deindustrialised and become a services sector. So, it will want to do something more on the services sector which we should allow because we are competitive in services, we should allow them to come again, if somebody comes into the services with a GCC, it will not involve very much investment. It will certainly generate revenue. It will help generate skills. It will be skilling of the Indian workforce. There will be exports involved, but do not expect very heavy investment. It does not take a lot of heavy investment to start an R&D centre into artificial intelligence. So that is the kind of thing the British may be investing in is one of the biggest investors in the UK. The Tata Group is the largest single employer in the private sector in the entire United Kingdom. I mean, it has TCS, it has Jaguar, and it has its steel plant out there and those together are a massive amount of investment, a massive amount of jobs. Will that trend increase? Yes, it could increase. But as I said, that is now fundamentally a services economy. It is no longer a large-scale producer of can Indian companies like TCS which are already well established increase their footprint? Yes, I should think so, especially now that there is this freedom in terms of social security deductions. Earlier, if an IT worker went there, a significant part of his salary was cut saying this is a social security contribution although he would never get it back as a pension in his old age. Now that that is being waived for three years, we will be able to send lots more people for up to three years and this should induce much more Indian investment in the IT sector there.I hope that happens. It looks promising. Of course, the other thing is that will there be more Indian writers for Financial Times and The Economist or more Indian footballers going into the Premier League, some of these areas and of course, there is the stock market. I mean, Britain is a highly financialised market with a huge stock market. It already has a significant number of Indian names that are already well known. I imagine that number could go up. How many of them would retain a close connection with India? I am not sure. But you could hope that a significant number of people go there and they improve their skills, send home remittances , and later on perhaps come back and open businesses here, so that is what we look forward to, something happening two-way and on this frankly I see more scope for Indian investment in the UK than the other way around.
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
India-UK trade deal not historic but should help Indian workers in UK: Swaminathan Aiyar
Swaminathan Aiyar , Consulting Editor, ET Now, suggests that while the UK trade agreement may not drastically alter the overall scenario due to existing low trade levels, any increase is beneficial. A significant achievement is the improved conditions for Indian workers in the UK, including exemptions from social security contributions and the ability to work remotely in 35 sectors, enhancing their earnings. India-UK Bilateral trade currently stands at $21 to $24 billion, with targets to hit $120 billion by 2030. Is that leap realistic? What must happen to bridge the gap there? Swaminathan Aiyar: Well, to say it is historic is a clear exaggeration. It is a useful thing. We live in a world right now where trade barriers are going up and it is happening all over the place, not just in the USA. Others in retaliation are putting theirs up. We ourselves have retaliated. On some occasions we have put ours up. So, when you get any agreement where there is a significant amount of liberalisation of trade, I would say it is welcome. 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The old colonial connection is completely severed and Britain itself has suffered a substantial amount of deindustrialisation. And if you ask what are the main exports of England's, somebody will say Premier League football or The Economist. It does export scotch whiskey of course and that is where the duty is going to come down from 150% to 75%, subsequently maybe to 40%. That still gives plenty of protection for Indian industry. For anybody who is worried, I need to emphasise that we now have two or three artisanal whiskey companies in India which in blind tasting have beaten everybody else. Now, of course, we are not mass-producing these things. Indri will have a small batch run. It is not like the continuous mass production of some famous scotch names, but we are competent and we are high class even in something like whiskey. So, I welcome the increased competition out there too. India itself will benefit significantly in various ways. My next question is which sector is poised to benefit the most after this deal? Swaminathan Aiyar: At the end of it all, this freeing of trade will change things. But if already the UK is not among your top 10 trading partners, you cannot expect this to really change the whole scenario. If already the trade is low, it means the complimentarity between the two countries is not that high. It is much higher with China and the USA and much less with the UK. So, the overall scope for trade is limited, but we are increasing it and every increase is a good thing. Live Events You Might Also Like: India-UK FTA: Scotch whisky, gin tariff cuts unlikely to impact retail prices We have often talked about improving the conditions for Indians to move to the UK for work. This used to be one of the things that was holding up an agreement. There, we have a good deal. Indians can work in 35 sectors for two years without any office and that means you can land up there and just work from your residence with zoom and you can be functioning without going through all the difficulties of setting up a formal sector and there is an exemption for social security. This is important. A significant part of your salary, anything you earn when your people go to the UK, is cut and goes towards your long-term pension. Our fellows are going there to do IT or other work for one year, for two years, for three years, so there is no point in them paying into social security when they will get nothing out of it once they retire. You have to work a very large number of years before you can get those benefits. Earlier they resisted it and said they were not going to do it. The United States still has not allowed this, but Britain has given what the United States has not given and this is very useful. I do not know the exact rates of the deduction for different categories, but 10-15% or sometimes 20% of your salaries went in these various deductions. If that gets reduced, there is that much more these Indian professionals will be able to send home. So that is a positive thing.
Economic Times
03-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Trump dying to announce victory in trade talks; India should not cave in: Swaminathan Aiyar
Swaminathan Aiyar, Consulting Editor, ET Now, argues that India's decision to forgo the Google tax was a flawed strategy, citing examples from Japan and Europe. He believes India should leverage its need for oil and gas to reduce its trade deficit with the USA, a unique position compared to countries like Vietnam. ADVERTISEMENT Your initial thoughts on this trade deal that the United States has signed with Vietnam? There were some differences with Vietnam. There were differences with Japan as well. The Japanese deal that has not been signed, that has not been announced, but this one coming through with Vietnam. Swaminathan Aiyar: It is not just Vietnam, he is anxious to come and announce a number of deals before July 9th. In fact, at one point of time, he said, he was going to announce 90 deals, which I very much doubt given the very few days left and the way Japan and the European Union have dug their heels in and said they are not ready. But he is desperately keen to announce a victory. Just like in the Indo-Pak conflict that we had recently. He is dying to announce that I have brought about peace and I want a Nobel Prize. So, he is dying to announce a number of victories. He has done it with Vietnam. He is close to having an interim deal if not a full deal with India. He wants to be able to announce a number of victories on trade by July 9th. Let us see on what terms those are being made. What is clear at this point is that neither Japan nor the European Union says that they are so afraid of the US and are going to give in. They are saying that they are going to continue and have very serious problems with US proposals, we are not going to keel under. Analysis shows Trump's tariffs would cost US employers USD 82.3 billion So, those two biggest trading partners are not going to cave under. And if they continue, then in some sense it is a sign to India and others not to cave in. I have long said that one thing I could not understand is that we gave up the Google tax getting nothing in return, even before all this started. People said it is like putting sugar inside the other guy's mouth so that they will be in a more happy mood. I am sorry that is a stupid strategy as the Japanese have shown, as the Europeans have shown. I really think we should be tough and hold out. Our strength is that because we are short of oil and gas, we can be among the very few countries that are going to shrink their trade deficit with the USA. For most other countries including Vietnam, it is very difficult for the trade deficit to come down. But India can offer that because of our need for oil and gas. Once you put that in, even in the interim, he can claim partial victory. It is very interesting that you talk about the fact that countries need to perhaps stand up to Donald Trump's tariff tactics and of course, this strategy of pressurizing countries into bowing down to the United States and agreeing to the terms and conditions that the United States set. But from the messaging that Donald Trump has put out on his social media platform, he says that Vietnam will pay the United States a 20% tariff on all goods and a 40% tariff on trans shipping. Vietnam will be doing something that they have never done before, give the United States of America total access to their markets for trade. In other words, he says that they will open their market to the United States. Does it indicate that Vietnam has caved in? Swaminathan Aiyar: Vietnam was certainly open to saying there will be zero duty on US goods. The plain and simple fact is that they import very little from the USA. And if that comes in on zero duty, I mean they are perfectly happy to import a little more from the USA. Trump's problem is that the USA is uncompetitive on most items. So, if they say that import duty on cars comes down to zero, how many American companies are going to be competitive compared with the Japanese, the Koreans, and even with the Europeans. Vietnam was willing even earlier to say okay we are willing to do a zero tariff. ADVERTISEMENT One of the big things is Trump says that all the Chinese goods are coming through you and also the Chinese companies are investing in you and they claim that this is a Vietnamese product and it is not because the value added is so little. That is some of the most difficult part. Apple and various other people have investments in Vietnam and if you say that I will put a very high duty on you because you are shipping parts from China, then it would make things very difficult. There is a Chinese company called Jinko Solar which made a huge investment in putting up solar panels and suddenly Americans are saying the value added is not enough and are threatening with a very high tariff. So, let us see how that works out. The Vietnamese recognise that the United States is an important market. They have no problem opening their market and they will do what they can. I would simply say that in the history of all this, cheating always succeeds. ADVERTISEMENT In all likelihood, you are suggesting that Vietnam might have opened up its economy to the United States, but the bigger question is since it is in our neighbourhood, what is the likely impact on India because we are competing with countries like China and Vietnam so far as manufacturing is concerned and Vietnam happens to be a big manufacturing for electronics and components and related industries. Swaminathan Aiyar: India has not allowed Chinese companies to invest in India. So, the problem that the Chinese will be shifted to India is not an issue. What has been brought up as an issue is Apple because Apple is importing components massively from China and in India all that we are doing is assembling. There is no serious manufacturing of components. So, he is saying that India just adds 6% in value and moves it on. Why should I treat this as an Indian product, why should I not treat this as a Chinese product? So, I think that is the difficult area we have. But as I said, India's advantage is that we can import oil and gas from the US and lower the trade deficit. China could also do that if it gives up Russia, but China will not give up Russia. So, I would say, India can massively increase its imports of oil and gas and therefore be in a better negotiating position. Other countries will find it very difficult because I do not think they are in a position to massively increase imports of energy. They will not be able to have a massive increase in exports of almonds, pistachio, and cashew which the USA wants them to do. They all have sensitive agricultural sectors. Nobody wants to open up their agricultural sectors. There is also the problem that America has genetically modified crops in the case of soybean and in the case of maize and in the case of wheat. If we allow this in, then we will not be allowed to export to Europe because Europe won't take genetically modified crops. ADVERTISEMENT We were given to understand from sources that when the United States announced these reciprocal tariffs on April the 2nd, Apple actually shipped iPads Max from countries like not just India but also China and Vietnam and Vietnam has more zero duty tariff lines as compared to India. So, the impact of that on the electronics industry in India remains to be seen as to whether there will be any supply chain shifts so far as these two countries are concerned. But coming back to the India-US negotiations, do you think that the deal is imminent and should come in perhaps the next two-three days? Swaminathan Aiyar: No, there is going to be action because Mr Trump wants to announce victories. If he has said, I am going to do 90 deals, imagine how many deals he will attempt to do in the next week, a very large number. And he will want to use the numbers to create an impression of a major victory. Without doubt, he is a stage actor who will attempt to show a very large number of victories. Even where there are partial agreements, as may be the case with India, he will play that up. If with Vietnam, there is zero import duty, he will play that up, even though Vietnam's imports are so small that it will not make a significant difference. He is an excellent actor. He is a performer on TV. He is a performer on the stage. But Trump is not going to find it easy to get everybody to agree to his terms, even though he is trying. Above all, he is treating the current account deficit of the United States of America as being a consequence of unfair trading by others. In terms of economics, that is dead wrong. A current account deficit represents a shortage of money to finance your own investment. Therefore, you have to get the money from outside. And the mirror image of that is a current account deficit. So, the plain and simple fact is that the Americans are spending too much compared with their own savings and because of that they run a trade deficit. It is not going to be put right by these so-called deals. In a year or two from now, of course, you may say that the MAGA crowd, Trump supporters, do not understand why a current account deficit should be equal to a savings investment gap. Right? He may get away with fooling a large number of them. But the fact is it is not going to change. In fact, with this new budget package, the debt is going to increase even more, which means that the trade deficit overall may get bigger and not smaller. Let us see how Mr Trump explains that to his supporters in the next two years. ADVERTISEMENT When it comes to negotiations that the United States is holding with India, some tensions and some challenges are coming in the talks on agri and dairy sectors. The Trump administration is using agriculture as a prop to gain elsewhere because we have seen statements from the Donald Trump administration whether it is related to having more deals with India on defence or procuring more oil from the United States and reducing supplies from Russia. Swaminathan Aiyar: On oil he is keen and ,Modi says absolutely. So, the fact that the two of them agree on such a large area has made the negotiation relatively easy. As far as agriculture is concerned, Mr Trump knows a very large number of agricultural states in the United States. They are with him, they are his backers and they are all saying what is going to happen to us? If you start putting up tariff barriers and there are retaliations, the retaliations will come on agriculture. So, what you are doing is you are cutting our throat. So, Mr Trump is very keen on showing victories on agriculture to mollify the farm belt in the United States which constitutes a solid backing for him. He is going to push that. Others will push back, as Japan has pushed back so conclusively. In India, the Jagaran Manch is dead against agricultural imports. You saw the impact of the farmers' protest against the reforms that were proposed a couple of years ago. In these circumstances, it is very difficult to see India giving way in agriculture. Maybe we can import some more pistachios and cashews. more apples and pineapples. do. On the serious areas of importing more genetically modified corn, maize and wheat, I just do not see India giving way at this stage and that may hold up a final agreement. Finally, we are not close to any kind of deal. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
