Latest news with #Swissblock
Business Mayor
12-05-2025
- Business
- Business Mayor
Is altcoin season making a comeback? – THESE signals suggest…
Altcoin season flashed upside momentum build-up as BTC dominance dipped. It was still BTC season per altcoin season index reading, but this could change. The risk-on sentiment in May has significantly boosted the altcoin market, especially after Bitcoin [BTC] surged above $100K last week. Looking ahead, the building momentum may be a signal of an incoming first phase of the altcoin season, noted analytics firm Swissblock. 'First leg of Altseason incoming. Last time we got this confirmation was February and November of 2024.' Source: Swissblock The attached chart shows an uptick in positive altcoin impulse (blue), a trend flashed in both February and November 2024 altcoin run-ups. Altcoin momentum improves Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen echoed Swissblock's outlook. Cowen noted that, from a price chart perspective, there was an increasing number of altcoins above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Source: X AMBCrypto checked key altcoin season indicators to gauge the budding traction. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) hit a cycle high of 65.3% in early May, slowing the broader altcoin sector's April recovery. However, last week's BTC jump above $100K was also marked by a sharp 4% drop in BTC dominance to 62%. Source: TradingView (Altcoin market performance vs. BTC, USDT dominance) Besides, Tether's USDT dominance (USDT, orange) has declined from 6% to 4.5% in the past three weeks. This meant that the altcoin sector saw some capital rotation from BTC. This was confirmed by a rebound in altcoin market cap (purple), excluding BTC and Ethereum [ETH ] , from over $600 billion to over $900 billion. For context, last November's altcoin pump was marked by similar signals – a sharp drop in BTC and USDT dominance. Simply put, the Swissblock outlook may be validated if the trend repeats. Read More Lido [LDO] falters at $1.7 — Can buyers still benefit? That said, it was still a firm BTC season as of the time of writing, per the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) reading of 27. Notably, the ASI is a lagging indicator. It tracks BTC's performance against altcoins over the past 90 days. Despite this, Monero [XMR], Sui [SUI], Bittensor [TAO], and Tron [TRX] have outperformed BTC in the same period.
Business Mayor
08-05-2025
- Business
- Business Mayor
Bitcoin traders brace for FOMC meeting as volatility looms
FOMC expected to hold rates at 4.25%–4.50%, CME tool shows 95.6% odds. Swissblock flags $97K–$98.5K as key resistance zone. Powell's comments could tilt Bitcoin towards breakout or correction. Bitcoin is trading just below $94,000 as investors prepare for Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference. Source: CoinMarketCap The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, with CME FedWatch Tool data showing a 95.6% probability of a rate hold. Despite this consensus, traders are bracing for volatility triggered by Powell's comments on the economic outlook, inflation, and rate trajectory, which could sway risk sentiment across digital assets. Market participants are especially focused on forward guidance, as recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have clouded expectations for rate cuts later this year. Trading volume dips, ETF inflows slow ahead of Fed event Bitcoin's recent sideways movement reflects a cautious market mood. ETF inflows have cooled, and leverage appears to be winding down as traders await clarity. Analysts at Swissblock describe the environment as a 'battle of resistance' and note that high open interest and negative funding rates point to intensified bearish bets. They flag the $97,000–$98,500 range as a critical resistance zone. A break above could trigger short liquidations, but a failed rally might trap bullish traders if momentum fades. Liquidation data also supports this tension. As price hovers within a tight range, derivatives traders appear to be betting on a volatile move in either direction. Risk appetite has cooled, but significant positioning remains open, suggesting market participants are preparing for a breakout or breakdown, depending on Powell's tone. Read More Is $10,000 Possible For XRP Price? Crypto Analysts Weigh In Powell's guidance could determine market direction While no change in rates is expected this week, traders are looking for hints on the Fed's stance for June and beyond. In previous meetings, Powell's words have caused major swings in crypto markets. December 2023 saw a hawkish turn that led to a broad sell-off in risk assets, and some fear that a repeat could materialise if Powell signals further tightening or ignores recent signs of economic slowdown. Market sentiment has been dampened by soft GDP data and renewed trade tensions with China. The impact of President Donald Trump's recent tariff rhetoric has raised concerns that rate cuts previously expected in June may now be delayed. Veteran trader Mathew Dixon noted that expectations for a June cut have already flipped to a hold, further pressuring sentiment. Gold's recent rally is also seen as a sign of risk-off positioning. According to analysts, this suggests investors are hedging against potential shocks from the Fed's announcement. Bitcoin price action hinges on macro signals Bitcoin is currently consolidating near local support as traders weigh macroeconomic uncertainty. Degens, or high-risk crypto traders, are reportedly building long positions, anticipating a price move. However, some analysts warn that market makers may push prices lower to trigger stop losses before a potential upside. Swissblock's analysis supports this view, suggesting that any breakout could be preceded by a final liquidity sweep. Historical data offers mixed signals. Three of the last five FOMC announcements have coincided with Bitcoin rallies, but this week's event is clouded by more complex macro conditions. The unresolved US-China tensions, weaker consumer demand, and political pressure around inflation all weigh heavily on market sentiment. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has previously argued that a shift back to quantitative easing could ignite a parabolic Bitcoin rally. But in the absence of dovish signals, Bitcoin could retest recent lows in a sharp pullback. With no clear catalyst either way, the market remains delicately balanced, awaiting Powell's next move.
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Hovers at $85K as Fed's Waller Suggests 'Bad News' Rate Cuts if Tariffs Resume
Bitcoin (BTC) drifted ever so gently upwards Monday as the broader market adjusts favorably to trade-related news. The largest cryptocurrency was up 1.6% in the last 24 hours and is now trading just shy of $85,000. Ether (ETH), meanwhile, rose 2.7% in the same period of time to $1,630. The broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index — consisted of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization except for stablecoins, memecoins and exchange coins — advanced 1.2%, led by gains in SOL and AVAX. After a couple of wild weeks, the stock market also edged higher today, the Nasdaq closing with a 0.6% gain and the S&P 500 rising 0.8%. Strategy (MSTR) and MARA Holdings (MARA), led among crypto stocks with roughly 3% gains. The modest rally came as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signalling that a return of the original punitive Trump tariffs would trigger the need for sizable "bad news" rate cuts. "[Tariff] effects on output and employment could be longer-lasting and an important factor in determining the appropriate stance of monetary policy," said Waller in a speech. "If the slowdown is significant and even threatens a recession, then I would expect to favor cutting the FOMC's policy rate sooner, and to a greater extent than I had previously thought." Further easing concerns was the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, confirming to hold off on retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth €21 billion until July 14 to "allow space for negotiations." Odds that the U.S. and EU will reach a trade agreement to avoid tariffs rose to 65% on blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket after U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly stated that a deal was in the works. Bitcoin's relief rally from last week's tariff turmoil stalled out around the $85,000 resistance level, but the network's improving fundamentals spur hopes for a breakout, crypto analytics firm SwissBlock Technologies noted. "Since March, we've seen a consistent inflow of new participants," Swissblock analysts wrote in a Telegram broadcast. "Liquidity is stabilizing, no more erratic swings from early 2025." "Once the liquidity gauge holds above the 50 line, short-term price action tends to follow with strength," Swissblock analysts said. "With network growth aligning, key levels aren't just being revisited, they're being accumulated." "This is the kind of structural support that underpins sustainable rallies," they concluded.
Yahoo
06-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Crosses $90K as Trump Delays Canada, Mexico Auto Tariffs
In the latest whipsaw of headlines this week, Donald Trump's tariff delay Wednesday eased investor worries with bitcoin (BTC) leading the crypto market higher. The U.S. government confirmed to delay tariffs on auto parts coming from Canada and Mexico by one month just one day after enacting them. Germany's plan to ease debt limits for infrastructure spending and China hiking its target deficit also contributed to rebounding risk markets. BTC climbed just above $90,000 on the news, up 3.7% over the past 24 hours. Almost all assets in the broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index advanced, with bitcoin cash (BCH), Chainlink's LINK and Aptos' (APT) booking double-digit gains. Read more: Bitwise Files to Launch Aptos ETF The tech-focused Nasdaq and the broad-market S&P 500 were also up 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively, in the afternoon hours of the session. Crypto-related stocks also climbed higher from the early week lows. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) was up 3.5%, while the largest corporate bitcoin holder Strategy gained nearly 10%. Trade tensions and geopolitical risk have taken center stage lately, weighing on investor sentiment, pressuring risk assets like U.S. stocks and digital assets lower. Similar risk off episodes have usually led investors to flee to the U.S. dollar, translating to downside pressure on crypto assets, said Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group. However, this time the U.S. dollar index (DXY) cratered to its weakest level since early November and is down more than 5% lower from its mid-January peak. "With Fed rate expectations shifting back to pricing more rate cuts than less in 2025 and with bitcoin capable of shining as a store of value asset, we believe there are plenty of reasons to expect bitcoin to be well supported on dips," Kruger said. Crypto analytics firm Swissblock noted that despite the wild price swings over the past few days, the firm's Bitcoin Fundamental Index, which measures the overall health of the network, held up relatively well. "Bitcoin's fundamentals are on the verge of shifting into the bullish quadrant, with sustained improvements in liquidity and network growth," Swissblock analysts said in a Telegram broadcast. "This strength suggests that BTC is unlikely to be driven into a bear market."
