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India's 21-Day Trump Trap
India's 21-Day Trump Trap

Time of India

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Time of India

India's 21-Day Trump Trap

India's 21-Day Trump Trap Syed Akbaruddin Aug 7, 2025, 21:21 IST He's left a short window before penal tariffs apply. There's no question of appeasing him. But GOI can be smartly flexible, like buying more US oil if it's priced competitively or engaging Russia on the ceasefire issue Trade disputes are not new. But when commerce is weaponised to dictate foreign policy, rules of engagement shift. In 21 days, Indian exports to US will face a 25% penalty for continued purchase of Russian oil. Combined with existing reciprocal tariffs, Indian goods will face the highest trade barrier in US alongside Brazil, at 50%. Washington has fused trade, diplomacy, and global strategy into a single ultimatum. The message is clear. The stakes are high. The window is closing fast. This is not a dispute over market access or pricing, nor is it a technical matter for trade negotiators alone. It is a geopolitical ambush with a 21-day fuse and a public countdown. Washington wants New Delhi to press Moscow towards a ceasefire. The deadline is less a timetable than a test of India's resolve, restraint, and skill.

Western Pressure On India Over Russia
Western Pressure On India Over Russia

Gulf Insider

time31-07-2025

  • Business
  • Gulf Insider

Western Pressure On India Over Russia

It's reshaping Indian policymakers' views of the West and breeding resentment of their governments among its society… India's former Permanent Representative to the UN Syed Akbaruddin recently published an informative opinion piece at NDTV titled 'Tariff Blitz: Is India Becoming Collateral Damage In Someone Else's War?'The gist is that the West, via Trump's threatened 100% sanctions on Russia's trading partners upon the expiry of his deadline to Putin for a ceasefire in Ukraine and the EU via its new sanctions barring the import of processed Russian oil products from third countries, is putting undue pressure on India. They can't defeat Russia on the battlefield by proxy, nor will they risk World War III by taking it on directly, so they're going after its foreign trade partners in the hopes of eventually bankrupting the Kremlin. This is counterproductive though since their threatened sanctions could torpedo bilateral ties, push India closer to China and Russia (thus possibly reviving the RIC core of BRICS and the SCO), and spike global oil prices, which hitherto remained manageable due to India's massive imports from Russia. Nevertheless, partial compliance is also possible due to the damage that Western sanctions could inflict on the Indian economy, so it can't be ruled out that India might curtail its aforesaid imports and no longer export processed Russian oil products to the EU. Full compliance is unlikely though since India would risk ruining its ties with Russia, with all that could entail as was touched upon here, while reducing its economic growth rate through higher energy prices and thus offsetting its envisaged Great Power rise. Even in the scenario of partial compliance, however, Western pressure on India over Russia already backfired. Their coercive threats and the very real consequences for no compliance whatsoever, presuming that exceptions can be made for partial compliance, are reshaping Indian policymakers' views of the West and breeding resentment of their governments among its society. The 'good 'ole days' of naively assuming that the West operated in good faith and was India's true friend will never return. This is for the better from the perspective of India's objective national interests since it's more useful to have finally realized the truth than to keep having illusions about the West's intentions and formulating policy based on that false perception. Conversely, this is for the worse from the perspective of the West's hegemonic interests since their policymakers can no longer take for granted that India will naively go along with whatever they request and blindly trust its intentions. This new dynamic might lead to rivalry. To be clear, India's envisaged Great Power rise doesn't pose a systemic challenge to the West like China's superpower trajectory does, nor is it 'disruptive' like the restoration of Russia's Great Power status has been. India consistently sought to facilitate the global systemic transition to multipolarity by serving as a bridge between East and West, which complements the West's objective interests, albeit while undermining its subjective hegemonic ones that are responsible for many of the Global South's troubles. Trying to subordinate India and then treating it as a rival when it doesn't submit could therefore further destabilize this already chaotic transition, thus possibly leading to unforeseeable consequences that accelerate the decline of Western hegemony more than if the West treated India as an equal. Pressuring India even more and then punishing it for lack of full compliance with their demands will only hasten this outcome. It's unlikely to succeed in getting India to submit to them so they should abandon this policy. Also read: Rupee Slides After Trump Threatens India Over Russia Trade

'Treaties are built on trust which can't flow with terror': Ex-diplomat on India's stand on Indus Waters Treaty
'Treaties are built on trust which can't flow with terror': Ex-diplomat on India's stand on Indus Waters Treaty

First Post

time14-07-2025

  • Politics
  • First Post

'Treaties are built on trust which can't flow with terror': Ex-diplomat on India's stand on Indus Waters Treaty

After India junked the Court of Arbitration's ruling on the Indus Waters Treaty, former diplomat Syed Akbaruddin said that treaties are built on trust and trust cannot flow with terrorism. He further said that India must link re-engagement to Pakistan's demonstrable action on terrorism. read more After India rejected The Hague-based Court of Arbitration's (CoA) ruling in the Indus Waters Treaty, former senior diplomat Syed Akbaruddin said that treaties are built on trust and trust cannot flow with terrorism. Last month, the CoA had ruled that it remained competent to arbitrate Pakistan's concerns over the Indus Waters Treaty despite India suspending the treaty. Pakistan had sought the CoA to arbitrate its concerns over India making two hydropower projects on the Indus River System prior to the treaty's suspension. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Days after the Pahalgam attack in which terrorists killed 26 people, India on April 23 announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. India has said that the treaty would not be restored until Pakistan addresses terrorism-related concerns. In an article for The Indian Express, Akbaruddin said that while the CoA's ruling may be procedurally valid as it reflects the logic of legal permanence, the law cannot be blind to context and India did not put the treaty in abeyance lightly. 'It placed the Treaty in abeyance after Pakistan-based terrorists killed dozens of Indians in a brazen attack in Pahalgam on April 22. When blood stains the snow of the Pir Panjal, the abstractions of international law ring hollow. India has not cut off water or violated Pakistan's share. Instead, it has frozen the instruments of cooperation as a wake-up call. The message is stark: Treaties are built on trust, and trust cannot flow when terror does,' noted Akbaruddin, a former Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations. Akbaruddin also said that India must not re-engage with Pakistan on the Indus waters and other issues until there is evidence of action against terrorism. Akbaruddin said that 'India should craft a diplomatic path that links re-engagement to Pakistan's demonstrable action on terror'. 'This is not a compromise. It is conditional justice. If Pakistan wants the benefits of the Indus water system, it must stop using terror as a tool. India must also speak to the world with clarity. It is not undermining peace. It is demanding that peace be real. It is not holding water hostage. It is refusing to be hostage to hypocrisy,' noted Akbaruddin. At the same time, India must expand infrastructure to fully utilise both its entitled share of the eastern rivers and its permissible use of the western rivers under the Indus treaty under a transparent, precise, and speedy manner, noted Akbaruddin.

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