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Newsweek
04-08-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Donald Trump Gets Good News From Most Accurate Pollster
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. President Donald Trump's net favorability rating is even among American voters, according to the latest Issues & Insights/TIPP Poll. The survey found that 45 percent of voters view Trump favorably, while another 45 percent view him unfavorably. Six percent said they were not familiar enough to say and another four percent said they were not sure. "The TIPP Poll has the much-coveted distinction as the most accurate poll of this century, being the only poll to accurately predict the winner of the last five U.S. presidential elections," TIPP Insights says. Why It Matters Trump's approval rating has been fluctuating since he returned to office in January. His administration has in recent weeks faced an outcry over its handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case, with even some of the president's supporters calling for more transparency. Voters have also expressed discontent with Trump's tariff policies and his approach to immigration. President Donald Trump speaks to the media as he departs the White House in Washington, D.C., on August 1, 2025. President Donald Trump speaks to the media as he departs the White House in Washington, D.C., on August 1, recent polls have found Trump's net approval rating remains underwater, which could spell trouble for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. What To Know The Issues & Insights/TIPP Poll, conducted among 1,362 voters between July 30 and August 1, has a margin or error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. The survey found that Trump's standing among voters was little changed from just over a month ago, when 44 percent of voters gave him a "favorable" rating and 45 percent gave him "unfavorable" ratings. The latest survey also found that Trump remains very popular with his own party. Among Republicans, 80 percent have a favorable opinion of Trump while just 13 percent view him unfavorably. However, most Democrats continue to dislike Trump. The survey found only 17 percent said they view him favorably, while 76 percent said they have an unfavorable opinion of him. What People Are Saying Terry Jones, editor of Issues & Insights, wrote in a blog post: "Amid the tumultuous events during month of July, including ongoing tough tariff negotiations by the Trump administration, mixed signs from the economy, growing violence against federal ICE agents, and stunning recent revelations about the Democrats' 'Russian hoax' scandal, Trump's standing among the voters edged up during the month by one point. By comparison, with his leadership widely questioned, President Joe Biden left office earlier this year underwater with a 38% favorable grade but 51% unfavorable, for a net favorability score of -13 points, compared to Trump's current break-even." Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek: "One cannot extract too much from a single poll, which can be an outlier or otherwise imprecise for all sorts of reasons. Still, the main point—that the country appears split in its views about Trump—is likely correct, but additional poll readings are necessary to confirm this. Any single poll is no more than a snapshot in time, as estimates can be imprecise for numerous reasons." Trump wrote on Truth Social in July: "My Poll Numbers within the Republican Party, and MAGA, have gone up, significantly, since the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax was exposed by the Radical Left Democrats and, just plain 'troublemakers.' They have hit 90%, 92%, 93%, and 95%, in various polls, and are all Republican Party records. The General Election numbers are my highest, EVER! People like Strong Borders, and all of the many other things I have done. GOD BLESS AMERICA. MAGA!" What's Next Trump's approval rating is likely to fluctuate in response to his policies. His popularity will be tested in earnest when voters head to the polls in the 2026 midterms.
Newsweek
17-06-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Donald Trump's Approval Rating Plunges With Republican Pollster
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. President Donald Trump is facing a sharp decline in support from voters, according to new data from a top Republican pollster. According to the latest TIPP Insights/League of American Workers poll, conducted between June 9-11 among 1,584 registered voters, Trump's approval rating currently stands at 43 percent, with 50 percent disapproving, giving him a net rating of -7 points. That is down from a net approval of -2 points in May, when 43 percent said they approved of Trump's job performance and 45 percent disapproved. The polls had a margin of error of between +/- 2.5 and 2.7 points. The League of American Workers is not officially affiliated with the Republican Party, but it has a conservative, pro-Trump orientation. Why It Matters Recent surveys had shown Trump's approval rating creeping back up after a period of decline following the introduction of his "Liberation Day" tariffs in April, which led to a decline in the stock market. However, the latest polls tell a different story. President Donald Trump speaks with reporters while onboard Air Force One en route from Calgary, Canada, to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on June 16, 2025. President Donald Trump speaks with reporters while onboard Air Force One en route from Calgary, Canada, to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on June 16, 2025. Mark Schiefelbein/AP What To Know The result comes as other polls have shown a downward trend in Trump's approval rating, following a short-lived recovery that came in the wake of his "Liberation Day" tariffs. According to Newsweek's latest tracker, Trump's approval now stands at 46 percent, with 51 percent disapproving—down from 48 percent pro and 50 percent against just one week earlier. A YouGov/Economist poll conducted between June 6–9 among 1,533 adults found a similar shift: Trump's approval rating fell to 43 percent, down from 45 percent the previous week, while disapproval climbed to 52 percent, up from 49 percent. Other pollsters reported the same trend. Navigator Research recorded a 1-point dip in approval and a 1-point rise in disapproval between June 5–9. A Quantus Insights poll, conducted June 9–11, also showed movement in the same direction. In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll (June 11–16), Trump's approval held steady at 42 percent, but his disapproval rose by 2 points to 54 percent. AHarrisX/Harvard survey, fielded June 11–12, registered a more noticeable shift: approval slipped to 46 percent, down from 47 percent in May, while disapproval rose to 50 percent, up from 48 percent. Still, a handful of polls recorded slight gains for Trump—though largely within the margin of error. A Verasight/Strength in Numbers poll (June 6–12) found his approval at 42 percent, up from 40 percent in May, while disapproval held steady at 56 percent. Poll Date Approve Disapprove Rasmussen 16-Jun 52 46 Ipsos/Reuters June 11-16 42 54 Verasight June 6-12 42 56 Harris X June 11-12 46 50 RMG Research June 2-12 52 46 J.L. Partners June 10-11 48 52 TIPP Insights June 9-11 43 50 Quantus Insights June 9-11 48 49 NBC News May 30-June 10 45 55 YouGov/Economist June 6-9 43 52 An RMG Research poll (June 2–12) showed a modest 1-point rise in approval to 52 percent, with disapproval unchanged at 46 percent. Similarly, a J.L. Partners/Daily Mail poll (June 10–11) of 1,807 registered voters showed Trump at 48 percent approval, up 1 point from the previous week, and 52 percent disapproval, down a point. The poll has a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points. Meanwhile, an NBC News/Survey Monkey poll (May 30–June 10) showed no change in Trump's net approval from the previous month, remaining at -10 points, with 45 percent approving and 55 percent disapproving. What Happens Next Trump's approval rating could fluctuate in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of key events.
Newsweek
03-06-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Donald Trump's Approval Rating Shifts in Multiple Polls
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. President Donald Trump's approval ratings are trending upward, according to multiple national polls. Why It Matters In recent months, Trump has seen his approval ratings fluctuate as he has pursued an aggressive policy agenda, including the introduction of tariffs, which led to volatile economic markets, moved forward with an immigration plan featuring deportations and cut thousands of federal jobs. An uptick in the polls shows the president's base could be stabilizing as he attempts to control political narratives. If the president's approval rating continues to rise, it could bolster Republican momentum and complicate Democratic strategy heading into midterms. President Donald Trump speaks at U.S. Steel Corporation's Mon Valley Works-Irvin plant on May 30, 2025, in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania. President Donald Trump speaks at U.S. Steel Corporation's Mon Valley Works-Irvin plant on May 30, 2025, in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania. Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP What To Know A number of recent polls show an uptick in Trump's approval rating—though most fall within the margin of error. That includes the most recent ActiVote poll, conducted between May 1 and May 31 among 488 adults, which showed that Trump's approval rating stands at 46 percent, while 50 percent disapprove. That is up from last month, when 45 percent approved and 51 percent disapproved, and breaks a trend since January, which had seen Trump's approval ratings in the poll decline each month. The numbers from May are also significantly better than Trump's average over the 48 months of his first presidency (41 percent), better than Biden's average approval rating for his full term (41 percent), and tops Biden's final year's approval rating (40 percent). The ActiVote poll carries a plus or minus 4.4 percentage point margin of error. In the latest TIPP Insights poll, conducted between May 28 and May 30 among 1,395 adults, Trump's approval rating came in at 43 percent, up one tick from 42 percent a month ago, while his disapproval dipped to 45 percent from 47 percent. The TIPP Insights poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. Before this poll, TIPP Insights polls had mostly shown the president's approval rating trending downward. Newsweek's poll tracker also shows Trump's approval rating trending upward, currently showing that an average of 47 percent approve of Trump's job performance, while 50 percent disapprove. A month ago, in the tracker, the president's approval rating stood at 44 percent, while his disapproval rate was firmly in the 50s. As some polls have shown an upward shift, there are still others that have shown Trump's approval ratings trending downward. The latest AtlasIntel survey, conducted between May 21 and May 27 among 3,469 adults, shows that Trump's approval rating has fallen to 45 percent, while 54 percent disapprove. That is the lowest rating in that poll of his second term. In previous AtlasIntel polls, his approval ranged between 46 percent and 50 percent, while his disapproval ranged between 49 and 52 percent. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Despite that dip, the overall trend in the polls is one of basic stability, with the majority of polls mirroring ActiVote and TIPP Insights, showing that Trump's ratings have not substantially changed beyond a 1- or 2-point dip—within the margin of error—or have not changed at all. This includes the most recent Quantus Insights poll, conducted May 18 to May 20, which showed Trump's approval rating at 48 percent, while 48 percent disapproved. That is unchanged from a poll conducted earlier in May, and only a slight change from the April poll that also showed his approval rating stood at 48 percent, while his disapproval rating at 50 percent. Poll Date Approve Disapprove Rasmussen June 2 53 46 ActiVote May 1-31 46 50 TIPP May 28-30 43 45 John Zogby May 28-29 48 49 YouGov/Economist May 23-26 44 52 Morning Consult May 23-25 48 50 YouGov/Yahoo May 22-27 41 54 McLaughlin May 21-26 51 44 Atlas Intel May 21-21 45 54 RMG Research May 20-29 49 50 The latest Civiqs poll, conducted May 17 to May 20 among 1,018 registered voters, put Trump's approval up by 1 point, and his disapproval down by 1 point. The same trend occurred in the latest YouGov/Economist poll, conducted May 23 to May 26 among 1,660 adults, which put his approval at 44 percent and disapproval at 52 percent. The latest YouGov/Yahoo poll, conducted May 22 to May 27 among 1,560 adults, saw Trump's approval dip 1 point to 41 percent and his disapproval tick up 1 point to 54 percent. In Morning Consult's latest survey, conducted May 23 to May 25 among 2,237 registered voters, Trump's approval rating was unchanged at 48 percent while his disapproval was up 1 point to 51 percent. And in the latest RMG Research/Napolitan News survey, conducted May 20 to May 29 among 3,000 registered voters, Trump's approval was up 1 point to 49 percent, while his disapproval was unchanged at 50 percent. In the latest John Zogby Strategies poll, conducted between May 28 and May 29 among 1,000 likely voters, showed that Trump's approval rating was unchanged from last month at 58 percent, while his disapproval was down one point to 49 percent. How Trump's Approval Rating Compares to First Term The RealClearPolitics tracker shows that on June 3, 2017, Trump's approval rating was 40 percent, while his disapproval rating was 54 percent. This gave him a net approval rating of -14 points. Trump is more popular now than at the same point in his first stint in the Oval Office. How Trump's Approval Rating Compares to Biden's Trump's 47 percent approval rating is lower than that of former President Joe Biden at the same point in his presidency. On June 3, 2021, Biden stood at 53 percent, with a disapproval rating of 42 percent, according to RealClearPolitics. While Trump began his second term with his highest approval rating, according to Gallup's first poll of Trump's second term, conducted between January 21 and January 27, he was still less popular than any president since 1953 at the start of a term and the only one to begin with a sub-50 percent approval rating. Gallup said Biden started his first term with a 57 percent approval rating. According to data compiled from Gallup by The American Presidency Project, Trump ranks far below other modern-day presidents after 100 days, dating to President Dwight Eisenhower, who had an approval rating of 73 percent. Others with higher approval ratings at the 100-day mark include John F. Kennedy, 83 percent; Richard Nixon, 62 percent; Jimmy Carter, 63 percent; Ronald Reagan, 68 percent; George H.W. Bush, 56 percent; Bill Clinton, 55 percent; George W. Bush, 62 percent; and Barack Obama, 65 percent. What Happens Next Trump's approval rating is likely to continue to fluctuate in the coming weeks, as key negotiations take place surround the Russia-Ukraine war, the tariff situation evolves and his administration continues to battle to the courts on a number of moves he has made since retaking office.
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump Voters - Who Are They? What Do They Want?
Trump won Wisconsin last November, albeit narrowly by 29,000 votes out of over 3.3 million cast. As the consummate swing state, his Wisconsin win exemplifies his surprise triumph in the national popular vote as well. For context, recall that Republicans lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections before Trump/Vance 2024. But in Wisconsin, Trump improved his margin materially among the states large Catholic population, did much better with women vs. prior runs, and soared among young men. Those same trends held true nationwide. But just months later, in the Wisconsin state supreme court race on April 1 of this year, the liberal candidate Susan Crawford easily prevailed against former conservative candidate Brad Schimel. Despite a radical record as an activist and judge, Crawford sailed to a +10% margin victory, beating Schimel by nearly a quarter million votes. Trump endorsed Schimel, who seemed to run a competent campaign that was well financed, with record millions in donations pouring into the race on both sides. So, what explains this divergence between last fall and this spring in the Badger State? Some issues are peculiar to Wisconsin, to be sure. For instance, in a heavily unionized state, Democrat get-out-the-vote operations matter massively in an off-year election without a marquee name to motivate right-leaning voters. But two larger issues loom, ones that we in the America First movement must acknowledge and manage going forward, especially into the key 2026 the GOP transforms into the party of patriotic populist nationalism, a coalition of working-class voters, across racial and ethnic lines. This coalition is a winning one when properly activated, and even attracts legions of young people. For instance, Trump won 18-year-olds nationally. Among young men 18-29 years old, Trump went from 41% of that vote in 2020 to 56% in 2024. Among Hispanic young men, Trump moved an astounding +38% on margin. These incredible gains point to the potential for a populist Right political domination for decades to … there is a problem. These voters are generally not politically obsessed, and they are difficult to turn out, especially without Donald John Trump on the ballot. So, given these circumstances, how do we motivate these voters and win elections? To find answers, my League of American Workers advocacy organization commissioned an extensive poll of over 3,300 Wisconsin voters. Respected pollster TIPP Insights conducted the survey and asked penetrating questions of the Trump voters in the heartland. Among the key findings are these three characteristics of Trump voters: Its Not a Personality Cult. Yes, Trump has indeed earned a committed ride-or-die base. But, the overwhelming majority of Trump voters approach politics pragmatically. In spite of media narrative, these voters do not worship Trump, but instead make a sensible choice to determine which politician will benefit their own lives, and the success of our nation. For instance, among Trump voters, only a fractional 7% responded "I only care about Trump." In contrast, over 70% of those voters who switch down ballot reported that they either "do not trust" other Republicans, or that those candidates are "part of the establishment." The GOP Brand Is Tarnished. Trump voters convey material disdain for the party. These voters totally dismiss the Democratic Party as awful, to be sure. But neither do they trust Republicans broadly. In this survey, 43% of Trump voters admit they do not vote for other Republicans. Nationalism and Authenticity Matter Most. Unlike non-Trump voters, this electorate does not place economic issues at the top of their priority list. Instead, they emphasize "America First" policies combined with a genuineness they can trust. For instance, when queried in a "max diff" exercise, where the respondent must pick between two competing goals, twice as many select "puts America first" vs. "trust his economic policies." The top three priorities in the max diff analysis are: "America First," followed by "strong on immigration," and then "delivers on promises." So, given these traits, how does the GOP convert on this opportunity and activate this coalition? In turn, how does our movement leverage the party? The primary consideration in this new age with little partisan attachment: Candidate selection becomes paramount. More than the right ideas, more than funding - this broad, energetic, restless coalition simply demands very different nominees compared to Republican norms. To get specific, on policies, the candidates must be aligned on America First. Meaning, they believe in sovereignty to their core - and will fight like rabid dogs to secure Americas borders and get dangerous illegals out of our country. Other policies are negotiable. Aside from that strong stance, they must be believable. Trump voters are understandably ticked off, because they recognize that the ruling class of this country has disparaged and disregarded them for decades. These deplorables know that a crooked system has cheated them, and they have almost zero automatic trust for a candidate, even with an "R" after their name. Admittedly, pre-judging candidate authenticity can be tough. But, as a rule, defer to outsiders. Find impressive people who have not held office, or at least not for long. Search for achievers outside of politics to have some measure of name recognition. Authenticity + patriotic populism is the winning formula. Only then will we capture this volatile but promising moment in American politics. Lets get to work. Steve Cortes is president of the League of American Workers, a populist right pro-laborer advocacy group, and senior political advisor to Catholic Vote. He is a former senior advisor to President Trump and JD Vance, and a former commentator for Fox News and CNN.
