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Daily Maverick
10-06-2025
- Politics
- Daily Maverick
Deepening ties between Houthis and Somali terror groups raise alarm over lethal drone threat
The sharing of lethal drone technology with al-Shabaab and Islamic State in Somalia could recast the conflict in the Horn and beyond. Yemen's Ansar Allah – commonly known as the Houthis – and Somalia's two proscribed terrorist organisations, al-Shabaab and Islamic State in Somalia (IS Somalia), are reportedly deepening ties. How could this impact the tools of war, especially lethal drone technology, which is increasingly a hallmark of Ansar Allah's operations backed by its powerful ally, Iran? Will the relationship with the United Nations (UN)-sanctioned group influence how Somalia's violent extremist groups fight or are perceived regionally? Technology transfer between armed groups is better understood since the proliferation of improvised explosive devices following conflicts in Iraq (2002) and Afghanistan (2001-2021). Migration of foreign fighters and access to 3D printing have ramped up these groups' ability to exploit arms trafficking channels, share knowledge, access components or inspire others. The proliferation of military-grade drones in Africa makes this an even more crowded space. Al-Shabaab has to date used drones largely for propaganda, intelligence and surveillance rather than attacks. UN monitors describe its relationship with Ansar Allah as 'transactional or opportunistic' – the pair having shared interests in smuggling routes and access to revenue streams. However, there is evidence that al-Shabaab may seek a more lethal use of drones. The UN monitors note that in meetings between the two groups in 2024, al-Shabaab's leadership requested 'advanced weapons and training' from Ansar Allah. Ansar Allah has demonstrated a penchant for using drones, seen during attacks on commercial ships during the Red Sea crisis that began in 2023. Some of the group's equipment and components were traced directly to Iran, 'and were likely mostly domestically assembled Sammad-series [unmanned aerial vehicles]', Conflict Armament Research's head of Gulf operations, Taimur Khan, told ISS Today. 'The Houthis procure the internal dual-use components themselves and make the airframes domestically.' They also used commercial, off-the-shelf drones. Al-Shabaab, IS Somalia and Ansar Allah mutually benefit from working together. A Carnegie Endowment for International Peace report, which includes interviews with coastguards, claims that 'Somalia's porous coastlines have become critical to ensuring that the group has access to Iranian supplies of Chinese equipment necessary for the growth of its Iranian-supported drone and missile programme'. And Somalia's armed groups allegedly benefit from training and more sophisticated drones. IS Somalia is also experimenting with drones. In Puntland, where it has a foothold, the group's first recorded drone strikes – on the Puntland Security Force – were in January. In the six months before, security officials seized five suicide drones 'dispatched by Ansar Allah… and arrested seven individuals' linked to Somalia's two main extremist groups. Furthermore, the UN monitors said that in May 2024 '[IS Somalia] employed unmanned aerial vehicles for reconnaissance and limited explosive deployment… It is assessed that the programme was aimed at building suicide unmanned aerial vehicles.' This either suggests cooperation between Yemen and Somalia's armed groups or that they draw inspiration from each other. Owning drones is important for armed groups' power projection. Media focus on suicide or first-person-view drones used for short-range missions. These enable operators to receive real-time information, and are 'one of the deadliest threats to civilians in frontline areas', say UN human rights monitors in Ukraine. They are regarded as a game-changer in asymmetric warfare and seem highly coveted by armed groups, including Ansar Allah. But how likely are these weapons to be routinely used in Somalia? 'There have been… seizures of FPV [drone] components being smuggled into Yemen, but Conflict Armament Research has not seen FPV drones being used by [al-Shabaab], although it does not mean it has never happened,' Khan says. Assault rifles are still the main weapon smuggled into the region, but experts say greater drone proliferation seems almost inevitable. 'Once this technology is adopted [by] a particular terrorist group, the ideas will proliferate in the region and be picked up by other armed groups, even if there are no direct links between those groups,' Khan says. Existing supply routes for other forms of contraband can easily be repurposed. The relationship between Ansar Allah and al-Shabaab provides greater access for al-Shabaab to more sophisticated arms, and smuggling routes and financial opportunities for Ansar Allah. Closer ties with extremist groups in Somalia also mean that Ansar Allah – and more so Iran, which provides it with military, financial and logistical support – gains 'strategic depth', the Carnegie Endowment says. Via its Yemeni proxy, Iran can help 'shape the maritime security architecture of the Gulf of Aden and Bab-al-Mandab Strait', the site of many commercial shipping attacks. It also potentially increases threat perceptions in the region, especially in Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti and Kenya. This will force militaries to allocate more resources to air defences, says Institute for Security Studies (ISS) maritime senior researcher Timothy Walker. There is also a psychological and diplomatic effect of more lethal technology transfer, says ISS senior researcher Moses Okello. He suggests that the mere threat of owning lethal drones or having access to components and supply routes, may impact diplomacy such that 'insurgents may be less willing to take part in political discussions'. For the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, the prospect of lethal drones in the hands of al-Shabaab is alarming, Okello adds. 'Offensive drones have not yet taken root, but al-Shabaab is said to be adapting commercial drones, adding payloads to them.' Insurgents need only one successful drone strike to impact the conflict's direction. Peacekeepers know that for now, assault rifles are still the weapon of choice in Somalia. But sharing technology and expertise with a key player in Yemen's complex proxy war could recast the conflict in the Horn of Africa and beyond. DM
Business Recorder
03-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Negotiated agreement with AGL: DG Audit (Power) seeks complete record
ISLAMABAD: The Director General Audit (Power) has sought complete record of negotiated agreement between Attock Gen Limited (AGL) and Government of Pakistan, well informed sources told Business Recorder. Attock Gen Limited and Central Power Purchasing Agency -Guaranteed (CPPA-G) have signed a Negotiated Agreement after negotiations with the Task Force on Energy which was also approved by the Federal Cabinet. In a communication with the Power Division, Taimur Khan, Inspecting Officer (IP-MoE), Islamabad has asked Power Division to provide the following documents: (i) Cabinet decision regarding Attock Gen limited;(ii) Negotiated Agreement summary of AGL; and (iii) implementation status of AGL's revised pact. As per terms agreed with task force: CPPA-G, Attock Gen file tariff revision plea Recently, National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) had held a public hearing on the joint application of AGL during which none of the parties raised any specific questions as the deal was struck at the highest forum. The CPPA-G and 156MW Attock Gen Limited had filed a joint application for revision in existing tariff of the project as per terms and conditions agreed with the Task Force on Power subject to withdrawal of proceedings for abnormal profits. Both the CPPA-G and Attock Gen have agreed on a 'hybrid take and pay' mechanism like other Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Both parties, in their tariff revision petition had prayed NEPRA to: (i) accept the application; (ii) revise indexation mechanism of the Operation and Maintenance Component of the tariff as agreed between the applicants in clause 2.2 of the Application of Acceptance (AA); (iii) revise indexation of insurance component of the tariff as agreed clause 2.2( b) of the AA; (iv) adjust the Foreign Component of RoE and RoEDC of the tariff as agreed between the Applicants in clause 2.2@) of the AA; and (v) revise the existing mechanism of 'Take or Pay' to Hybrid Take and Pay' model, whereby the Company is entitled for 35% of RoE and RoEDC as part of CPP and remaining RoE and RoEDC component is subject to generation beyond 35% of contract capacity as agreed between the Applicants in clause 2.2b) of the AA. The power company requested NEPRA to implement the clause 3.2 of the AA which provides that 'the revised tariff shall be effective from: (a) the date of notification and (b) withdrawal of respective letters and/ or claims and /or proceedings of NEPRA against the Company for abnormal profits and appropriate notice that the same stands fully and finally withdrawn and resolved, failing which the past excess adjustments (fuel and O&M) will be set aside. The Regulator has also been requested to approve the tariff adjustment to become effective as provided in clause 3.2 of the AA. The Regulator is likely to issue determination of AGL within current month so that savings from the revised deal be made part of the QTAs' adjustment. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Khaleej Times
18-03-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Strong demand and strategic investments continue to drive UAE real estate market
Limited levels of available supply, infrastructure development delivery and alternative assets including last-mile logistics and data centres is driving the UAE's real estate performance in 2025, according to JLL's Middle East and Africa Market Review and Outlook 2025. 2024 ended on a strong note for Dubai's residential sector as sales transactions grew by 32 per cent compared to the previous year, totalling Dh367 billion. Investor appetite remained strong for off-plan properties, which accounted for the majority of transactions valued at approximately Dh223 billion, representing 60.7 per cent of the total. On the back of strong demand, developers launched around 157,000 units in 2024, the most in a single year, according to data from REIDIN. The rental market, on the other hand, recorded a 15.7 per cent y-o-y growth in lease rates at a slower pace of increase, indicating rents may be stabilising over the short-medium term. In Dubai, following a strong January with more than 13,500 transactions, activity levels have remained robust with an additional 15,300 units transacted in February, data from Emirates NBD Research. About eight per cent of the total units sold in February were concentrated in Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) as the sub-market led demand for both ready and under-construction properties. Transactions for apartment units saw a 14 per cent month-on-month increase, while demand for villa/townhouses grew by 10 per cent month on month. fter more than 6,500 new unit launches in January, an additional 7,190 units were launched in February 2025. Capital values have increased by an average two per cent month-on-month across both apartments and villas/townhouses. As key global macroeconomic headwinds began to ease over the course of 2024, the UAE was the only GCC country to record growth in oil-GDP despite ongoing oil production cuts. Non-oil GDP growth has been particularly strong in the UAE, which recorded growth rates of 4.7 per cent in 2024, and is expected to accelerate to 4.8 per cent in 2025. Taimur Khan, Head of Research MEA at JLL, said: 'With inflation rates stabilising and a robust labour market, the real estate sector is witnessing robust demand across key sectors in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi. GDP growth has been amongst the strongest in the UAE as compared to other GCC countries, which is a testament to the government's continued strategic efforts to attract investment. In 2025, enabling the conversion of qualified non-freehold properties will drive demand across submarkets while new infrastructure projects and alternative assets is expected to propel real estate development in the UAE.' Although the MEA region's construction project market slowed in 2024, the UAE dominated construction project awards during the year, securing the largest share with 47 per cent, equivalent to $34 billion. In terms of sectors, the UAE excelled in residential and mixed-use projects, awarding $28.3 billion and $ 4.6 billion, respectively. In the region's pipeline, UAE accounts for 20 per cent of upcoming construction projects. Gary Tracey, Head of Project & Development Services UAE at JLL, said: 'Despite rising construction costs, the UAE's real estate market is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025, as evidenced by robust order books and strong performance across the residential and mixed-use project sectors. This demonstrates the market's resilience and underlying strength but also underscores the need for diligent cost control and innovative solutions to ensure sustainable growth.' The UAE's tender price inflation (TPI) for 2024 averaged 3 per cent annually, closely mirroring the trajectory observed in 2023. This outcome was grounded in consistently high rates reflected in tender return data for 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, JLL anticipates a TPI of 2.5 per cent, with a possible variance of +/- 2 per cent. The outlook for 2025 suggests improved market conditions, driven by expected lower interest rates, stabilising commodity prices, and a more normalised supply chain. However, these positive factors are likely to be counterbalanced by market capacity constraints and prevailing sentiment within the contracting industry. In Abu Dhabi, the office market continued to record strong levels of demand in 2024 – the majority of which stemmed from government-related entities – with 47,615 office rental registrations, an increase of 30.8 per cent y-o-y. With demand expected to remain steadfast and new supply expected to be limited at 172,940 square metres, JLL expects the growth in rental rates will likely continue to strengthen in 2025, particularly in Prime and Grade A stock in core and central locations of the city. In Dubai, which has remained firmly landlord favoured, around 122,000 square metres of new office space is expected to come online in 2025, the majority of which is of Grade A specification, spread across areas such as DIFC, Dubai Internet City, Dubai Silicon Oasis and Sheikh Zayed Road.
New York Times
13-03-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
Houthi Drones Could Become Stealthier and Fly Farther
For more than a year, Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked merchant vessels and warships in the Red Sea with missiles, drones and speedboats loaded with explosives, disrupting global trade through one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. Claiming solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, the Houthis have hit vessels as far as 100 miles off the Yemeni coast, prompting retaliatory airstrikes by U.S. and Israeli warplanes. The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, largely discontinued their attacks when Israel and Hamas reached a cease-fire in January. But evidence examined by weapons researchers shows that the rebels may have acquired new technology that makes drones more difficult to detect and helps them fly even farther. 'It could potentially give the Houthis an element of surprise against U.S. or Israeli military forces if they were to restart any of these conflicts,' said Taimur Khan, an investigator with Conflict Armament Research, a British group that identifies and tracks weapons and ammunition used in wars around the world. Mr. Khan traveled to southwestern Yemen in November to document parts of a hydrogen fuel cell system that government forces found in a small boat offshore, alongside other weapons known to be used by Houthi fighters. Hydrogen fuel cells produce electricity through a reaction of oxygen in the air and compressed hydrogen across a series of charged metal plates. They release water vapor but little heat or noise. Houthi drones powered by traditional methods like gas-burning engines or lithium batteries can fly about 750 miles. But hydrogen fuel cells would enable them to fly three times that distance and make it far more difficult for acoustic and infrared sensors to detect them. Conflict Armament Research detailed its findings in a report released on Thursday. The group examined shipping documents showing that the fuel cell components were made by companies in China that advertise their use for drones, and compressed hydrogen tanks mislabeled as oxygen cylinders. It is not yet possible to know if the items came directly from China, Mr. Khan said. But a new source for weapons components could give the Houthis a strategic boost. Houthi weapons shipments intercepted at sea have typically been made in, or sent from, Iran, Mr. Khan said. 'If the Houthis acquired these items on their own, the cargo we saw would suggest a new supply chain from commercial markets that increases their self-sufficiency, instead of just relying on their backers in the region,' he added. The boat that Mr. Khan inspected was intercepted at sea in August by Yemeni forces aligned with the country's internationally recognized government. The items found aboard included guided artillery rockets, small engines manufactured in Europe that can power cruise missiles, radars and ship-tracking devices, as well as hundreds of commercial drones in addition to the hydrogen fuel cell parts. Hydrogen-based electrical power with fuel cells is decades old, and was used by NASA during the Apollo missions. Its use to power military drones emerged in the late 2000s during the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In the years since, hydrogen power became more common for military drones. Its ability to extend their range made it attractive for commercial uses, like inspecting pipelines, power lines and offshore wind farms, according to Andy Kelly of Intelligent Energy, a British company that makes hydrogen fuel cells used in drones that several U.S. companies now sell to the Defense Department. 'The longer they can stay in the air, the more data they can collect,' Mr. Kelly said. 'They are key for long-range reconnaissance.' The hydrogen systems can store three times more energy than lithium batteries of an equal weight, he said, allowing the drone operator to carry more weight over a longer distance. Fuel cells also produce few vibrations to jostle surveillance cameras and other sensors on a surveillance drone, Mr. Kelly said, adding that they can be reused many more times than the rechargeable batteries commonly used to propel drones. Conflict Armament Research declined to name the Chinese companies that made the components recovered near Yemen, a policy that ensures its researchers can work privately with firms to determine how their products ended up in the hands of various entities.
Gulf Business
21-02-2025
- Business
- Gulf Business
Missed the latest Gulf Business real estate panel? Watch it all here
The Gulf Business Business Breakfast Briefing: Real Estate Edition, held on 20 February 2025 at The Westin Mina Seyahi in Dubai, brought together top industry leaders, investors, and stakeholders to discuss the evolving UAE real estate market. Under the theme 'Breaking Ground: The UAE Real Estate Outlook,' the event provided valuable insights into the future of the property sector across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah, and Ras Al Khaimah. The briefing featured three dynamic panel discussions, keynotes from industry leaders, and the prestigious Game Changers Awards. Attendees explored critical market trends, policy shifts, and emerging opportunities shaping the UAE's property landscape. Attendees of Gulf Business' February 20 panel gathering before proceedings kicked off. Gulf Business would like to thank its partners who made this special event possible: Alef Group, IRTH Group, ANAX Developments, Century Financial, GROHE, and Samana Developers. You can view all the photos of the event by clicking to view this If you missed the event, you can catch up on all the action by watching the videos posted below. Panel 1: Will Dubai's Property Boom Continue? Dubai's real estate sector has experienced an unprecedented boom, driven by strong foreign investment, regulatory reforms, and luxury developments. But with global economic uncertainties, fluctuating interest rates, and increasing supply, is the growth sustainable? This panel, moderated by Taimur Khan, Head of Research MEA at JLL , examined key factors influencing Dubai's real estate trajectory over the next five to ten years. Discussions covered the sustainability of the boom, the impact of golden visas on demand, and whether the surge in off-plan sales signals healthy growth or an overheating market. Speakers: Fibha Ahmed, Vice President of Property Sales, Bayut Ravi Bhirani, MD, Anax Developments Stefan Schmied, Leader IMEA, LIXIL International Dounia Fadi, Managing Director, eXP Dubai Panel 2: The New Growth Hubs – Ras Al Khaimah, Abu Dhabi & Sharjah While Dubai remains the UAE's real estate leader, other emirates are stepping up as investment destinations. Ras Al Khaimah's Al Marjan Island, Abu Dhabi's government-backed mega-projects, and Sharjah's focus on sustainable luxury housing are reshaping the landscape. Moderated by Gareth van Zyl, Group Editor, Gulf Business , the discussion compared these emerging hubs, exploring investment potential, ROI, and government incentives. Speakers: Issa Ataya, CEO, Alef Group Andrew Thomson, Partner, Head of Real Estate, Hotels & Leisure, Al Tamimi & Company Fouad Bekkar, CEO, Coralytics Panel 3: UAE's Property Market 2025 – The Next Big Moves As the UAE real estate sector matures, increased transparency, homeownership trends, and regulatory shifts are shaping its next phase of growth. The expansion of freehold areas, the evolution of RERA's regulatory role, and improved data access are transforming the market. Moderated by Anand Menon, CEO, LION EDGE Consultancy , this panel explored the future of homeownership, investment hotspots, and the balance between supply and demand. Speakers: Daniel Hadi, CEO Middle East, Engel & Völkers Louis Harding, CEO, Better Homes UAE Osman Celiker, Managing Director, IRTH Group Imran Farooq, CEO of Samana Developers Game Changers Awards & Full Event Recap The event concluded with the Game Changers Awards , recognising individuals and organisations shaping the future of UAE real estate. Winners were honoured for their contributions to innovation, sustainability, and market growth. For those who missed the live event, you can also watch the full event recording here: Stay tuned for more Gulf Business industry briefings, offering unparalleled access to expert insights and networking opportunities.
