Latest news with #TakshashilaInstitution
Gulf Insider
3 days ago
- Politics
- Gulf Insider
China's $167 Billion Tibetan Dam Alarms Scientists
China has officially begun construction on a massive hydroelectric dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, despite strong warnings from scientists about the region's fragile ecosystem and complex geological conditions. A Chinese hydrology expert has described the project as outright illegal, pointing out that it violates multiple international agreements and China's environmental estimated $167 billion project, formally known as the Motuo Hydropower Station, is situated on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. It is set to become the world's largest hydroelectric dam, with a projected annual output of 300 billion kilowatt-hours. On July 19, Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the groundbreaking ceremony, referring to it as the 'project of the century,' according to Chinese state media. The Yarlung Tsangpo River, also known as the Brahmaputra in India and the Jamuna in Bangladesh, is the highest major river on Earth, with an average elevation of approximately 4,000 meters (13,123 feet). The dam will harness energy from the river's dramatic Great Bend, where it takes a sharp U-turn and plunges nearly 2,000 meters (about 6,562 feet) before flowing into India. After decades of planning, Chinese authorities approved the project in December 2024, reigniting serious concerns over its feasibility, safety, and environmental impact. Some experts in India and Bangladesh, where millions depend on the river for irrigation, drinking water, and flood control, have expressed concerns about the dam's potential safety risks and the negative impact of disrupting the river's flow. Shortly after China's announcement last year, Y. Nithiyanandam, head of the Geospatial Research Program at the Takshashila Institution in Bengaluru, voiced strong opposition, citing both geological instability and the dam's potential transboundary effects. 'The region proposed for dam construction is highly susceptible to landslides and is located on a geological fault line that intersects the Yarlung Zangbo,' Nithiyanandam said, as quoted by digital newspaper The Pulse. 'Planning a dam of this magnitude in such complex terrain poses significant risks to downstream regions of India and Bangladesh, especially in the event of a mishap or if there is an alteration in the water flow.' He further pointed to the January 2025 earthquake in Tibet, which claimed at least 126 lives, as a stark reminder of the dangers of building mega infrastructure in seismically active zones. This region has long been known for intense seismic and geological activity. In April 2000, a massive landslide in Yigong township, Bomi county, southeastern Tibet, created a natural dam. Two months later, the lake breached, triggering flooding that affected millions of people. On Aug. 15, 1950, a magnitude 8.6 earthquake struck near the river bend, causing widespread destruction in both China and India. It remains the strongest continental earthquake ever recorded since modern seismic data became available in China. Chinese geologist Yang Yong, director of the Hengduan Mountain Research Institute, has long opposed large-scale hydropower development in the region. In 2014, he published a series of articles explaining why the region is unsuitable for large hydropower projects. Yang pointed out that the Tibetan Plateau, the source of major rivers in Asia, relies primarily on glacier meltwater for river replenishment, making the water supply unpredictable due to weak precipitation and significant seasonal variability. As a result, he said, hydropower plants would face low operational reliability, poor energy output, and serious risks from freezing and river blockages during winter. Additionally, he warned that the region's complex geological conditions make it nearly impossible to construct effective regulating reservoirs, which are crucial for adjusting output and maintaining operational stability. Beyond geological concerns, environmentalists warn that the Motuo Hydropower Station poses a severe threat to one of the planet's most unique and biodiverse ecosystems. Wang Weiluo, a hydrologist based in Germany, has been a vocal critic of the project since China first began considering it in 2020. The area is 'a unique ecological treasure that must be preserved with the utmost care,' he recently told the Chinese-language edition of The Epoch Times. The project site lies within the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon—the longest and deepest canyon in the world. Rich in endemic and endangered species, the canyon is renowned for its biodiversity and fragile ecosystem. In 2021, a team of Chinese researchers led by Lu Zhi, a professor at Peking University's School of Life Sciences, called for the canyon area to be designated as a national park. In an article published in the journal Nature, they stressed the urgent need to protect the area's ecological environment from threats posed by tourism and infrastructure projects. 'The environmental consequences of damming the Yarlung Tsangpo would far exceed those of the Three Gorges Dam,' Wang told The Epoch Times, emphasizing that the region's biodiversity is irreplaceable and must be conscientiously protected. One of the major issues with the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project, according to Wang, is that it is illegal—not just under international conventions and treaties but also under China's laws. The canyon area is currently designated as a national-level nature reserve. Under Article 32 of China's Regulations on Nature Reserves, 'no production facilities may be constructed within the core or buffer zones of a nature reserve.' Wang told The Epoch Times that the project also violates multiple international agreements, such as the 1992 Convention on Biological Diversity, the 1972 UNESCO World Heritage Convention, and the 2003 UNESCO Declaration Concerning the Intentional Destruction of Cultural Heritage. Chinese state media have touted the hydropower project as designed to divert 60 billion cubic meters of water from upstream of the dam site into underground tunnels for power generation, while maintaining a total downstream flow of 140 billion cubic meters to avoid disputes over water resources for downstream populations. However, according to Wang's calculations, this scenario would cause a stretch of the river downstream to run completely dry—'not a single drop of water,' he said. Water would only reappear where the Parlung Tsangpo River merges with the Yarlung Tsangpo north of the Great Bend, he said. This depleted section, Wang warned, would lead to the collapse of the river's aquatic ecosystem. 'This is the ecological disaster that the Motuo Hydropower Station would bring,' he said. Also read: PowerChina Wins $4BN Contract For Iraq's First Major Seawater Desalination Facility
Mint
5 days ago
- Business
- Mint
‘India can withstand US hiring curbs through digital self-reliance!' says policy expert
US President Donald Trump has once again stirred debate in global tech circles by calling on American technology firms to stop hiring from abroad, particularly from India and China and focus on creating jobs for Americans at home. Speaking at a high-level Artificial Intelligence (AI) Summit in Washington on Wednesday, Trump denounced the 'globalist mindset' of tech companies such as Google and Microsoft, accusing them of exploiting American freedoms while building factories overseas and employing foreign workers. 'Under President Trump, those days are over,' he declared, pushing for a renewed sense of 'patriotism and national loyalty' in AI innovation. The speech has drawn sharp reactions across the world, including in India, where a significant portion of the tech workforce is engaged with US companies either directly or through offshore delivery models. To assess the implications, we spoke with Vishwas Dass, a graduate of the Takshashila Institution's Public Policy programme and an expert on technology and international policy. According to Dass, Trump's 'Winning the Race' strategy, which proposes complete localisation of America's AI development pipeline, presents a double-edged sword for global innovation, especially for countries like India. 'If enacted, US companies would face operational and staffing disruptions. Many already rely on skilled workers from India, a country which has built a massive IT export ecosystem,' Dass said. He pointed out that Indian IT firms are responding proactively, by ramping up local hiring in the US, establishing nearshore centres in Canada and Mexico, and expanding into higher-margin, AI-based services within India. While Trump's push could temporarily dent remittance inflows, 36 per cent of India's $111 billion remittance income in 2022 came from countries like the US, UK and Singapore, Dass believes India's strategic moves such as Startup India and Digital India can soften the blow over time. He further noted: 'India's IT sector generated $194 billion in revenue during 2022–23, contributing eight per cent to the GDP and employing over 4.5 million professionals. About 70–75 per cent of this revenue is export-driven. The industry is resilient and increasingly future-ready.' In response to this question,Vishwas Dass explained that Trump's "America First" approach could deepen tech decoupling trends and alter the global AI landscape significantly. 'The Biden-era export restrictions already limit India's access to advanced AI chips like Nvidia's H100. Trump could double down on such policies, further delaying India's AI infrastructure goals, including the IndiaAI mission, which plans to deploy 10,000 GPUs,' Dass said. Citing a report from the India Electronics and Semiconductor Association (IESA), Dass warned that chip restrictions could derail crucial data centre projects. He also referenced AI expert Andrew Ng's concerns that over-restriction may backfire by pushing countries like India to build independent compute ecosystems, diluting US dominance in global AI. Yet, Dass highlighted India's countermeasures, including its ₹ 76,000 crore Semicon India Programme and strategic partnerships under the iCET and TRUST frameworks with the US and EU. 'India is laying down the infrastructure for AI and semiconductor self-reliance while hedging against geopolitical risk through diversified alliances,' he added. He further pointed to Google'sAI Opportunity Agenda for India, which estimates that AI adoption could add INR 33.8 lakh crore in economic value by 2030 and help achieve a $1 trillion digital economy by 2028. Commenting on the feasibility of completely cutting ties with Indian and Chinese talent, said such a move would be 'extremely difficult, if not self-defeating,' for US tech firms. He drew insights from The Technopolitik survey by the Takshashila Institution, which found that 21.7 per cent of respondents ranked talent as more critical than infrastructure in driving national power, while 53.4 per cent preferred open migration due to its role in attracting investment. 'India is not just a low-cost service hub anymore, it is a core node in the global AI and digital services value chain,' Dass asserted. 'A sudden decoupling would disrupt global R&D pipelines and severely affect tech diplomacy, especially given that 45.4 per cent of surveyed stakeholders see the US as India's most important technology partner.' That said, Dass acknowledged that 95 per cent of respondents supported India's domestic semiconductor development, indicating a strong desire for self-reliance without completely cutting off international cooperation. Trump's renewed nationalist rhetoric on AI may bolster domestic sentiment, but experts like Dass caution against overlooking the complex interdependence of global tech ecosystems. 'What we are seeing is not just a political speech, it is a flashpoint in an ongoing global realignment of technological power,' Dass concluded. India, with its digital ambitions, demographic dividend, and expanding R&D base, stands at a critical juncture. Whether it chooses to respond with defensive posturing or proactive leadership in AI governance will shape its position in the global tech order for years to come.
New Indian Express
19-07-2025
- Business
- New Indian Express
China's renewable energy push in Tibet Autonomous Region a worry for India, warns new study
A new worry may be brewing for India along its borders. According to a new study, China is systematically harnessing the renewable energy potential of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) for both civilian and military purposes. Professor and Head of the Geospatial Research Programme, Takshashila Institution, Bengaluru, Dr Y Nithiyanandam, the study's author, has made some significant observations on the strategic importance of TAR for the People's Republic of China (PRC). He says these factors also help explain why China resists any claim of autonomy by the Tibetan government in exile in India. "Over the past 12 years, TAR has made significant advancements in its renewable energy development, particularly for projects with a capacity of 20 MW or greater. "In 2023, Tibet made a substantial leap forward, adding 700 MW through the initiation of 11 projects, which underscored its ongoing commitment to scaling up renewable energy capacity. The momentum continued into 2024, with an additional 860 MW installed across 15 projects, demonstrating a sustained commitment to clean energy initiatives,' states Nithiyanandam. He went on to observe how 2025 has seen a pivotal shift with 2,600 MW being generated from just two large-scale projects. "This dramatic increase not only reflects TAR's commitment to expanding its clean energy resources but also underscores the region's potential to become a significant player in the renewable energy landscape,' states the geospatialist in his study. Nithyanandam argues that "China's sustained investments in TAR's renewable energy sector reflect its commitment to achieving its net neutrality goal and its intention to drive economic development in one of its most remote regions. This energy push has added strategic depth to the region's importance, especially given its proximity to India." He then goes on flag the concerns highlighting how many of these installations could also help China's military. "Though officially positioned within China's 2060 carbon neutrality roadmap, the dual-use character of many renewable, especially solar installations is evident. Large-scale and tactical systems alike serve civilian demands while also meeting the logistical requirements of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), revealing a deeper strategic calculus," he observes in his study, which is based on open-source information and image processing of remotely sensed data. Nithyanandam's research has also brought several previously undocumented installations to light, contributing fresh insights to our understanding of renewable developments in the remote Himalayan region, which has been under Chinese occupation since 1951. "A closer look at individual projects reveals a wide-ranging portfolio—from vast solar farms to modest but locally significant units, some of which are fully subsidised. The developments surrounding Shigatse, particularly near airport infrastructure and urban edges, demonstrate clear technological progression. In Gar County, the proximity of solar plants to military facilities suggests an emerging energy-security nexus, with solar power supporting off-grid operations through battery-backed systems,' says Nithiyanandam. Averaging over 4,500 metres above sea level, Tibet features everything; from towering mountains and deep river gorges in the southeast to expansive high-altitude plains in the northwest. "This dramatic terrain is accompanied by unique climatic and hydrological systems, shaping the region's renewable energy potential in distinct ways," the paper states. One of Tibet's greatest renewable assets is solar energy. The region receives solar radiation ranging between 5,852 and 8,400 MJ/m² per year, placing western Tibet in the top-tier (Class I) solar resource category and the southeast in Class II. Interestingly, Tibet ranks among the sunniest regions globally, with more than 3,000 hours of annual sunshine across many western areas and an average of 8,160 MJ/m² annually in Lhasa alone. This has enabled the development of large-scale photovoltaic (PV) infrastructure, such as the 1.1 GW Yangbajing solar farm, building on long-standing traditions of passive solar design in Tibetan architecture. The expansion of solar energy in Tibet is more than a story of renewable transition. "It is a case study in the convergence of energy, environment, and security at high altitudes. The pace, scale, and sophistication of these developments reflect a deliberate and multi-layered policy agenda," states the researcher. Besides solar, TAR's hydropower potential is equally significant. The region is the origin of several of Asia's major river systems, including the Brahmaputra, Indus, and Mekong. While solar and hydro dominate the renewable landscape, wind and geothermal energy also play a role, albeit a limited one. "Considering these developments, a spatially detailed mapping of renewable resources—solar, wind, and hydro—is essential. Such mapping is crucial for understanding Tibet's energy landscape and examining dual-use infrastructure, where energy assets may serve both civilian and military purposes," states Nithiyanandam.
Nikkei Asia
26-06-2025
- Business
- Nikkei Asia
Why TSMC was never going to build a fab in India
Commuters drive past TSMC's fabrication plant in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, on June 7. © Reuters Anushka Saxena is a staff research analyst in the Indo-Pacific studies program of the Takshashila Institution, a policy think tank based in Bengaluru. A few weeks ago, India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology announced that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) had declined India's invitation to set up a plant in the country, while expressing confidence that India still has the Tata Electronics-Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (PSMC) plant in Dholera to rely on.
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First Post
25-06-2025
- Politics
- First Post
‘Severe damage but not irreversible': Decoding satellite images of US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites
Despite President Donald Trump's claim that US airstrikes 'obliterated' Iran's nuclear facilities, satellite imagery shows limited damage to underground facilities that means only a temporary blow to the nuclear programme. But that may not mean that the Israeli-American war on Iran failed in its objectives. read more President Donald Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrive for a news conference in the East Room of the White House, Tuesday, Feb. 4, 2025, in Washington. AP Contrary to President Donald Trump's claim that US airstrikes 'obliterated' Iran's nuclear sites, satellite images have shown limited damage and not complete destruction. The United States struck Iran's nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan with 30,000 pound 'bunker buster' bombs and submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles. The primary targets were underground enrichment facilities, stored enriched uranium, and centrifuges. The satellite imagery from three sites struck by the United States indicates severe disturbance, but not irreversible damage, says Y Nithiyanandam, the Head of the Geospatial Research Programme at the Takshashila Institution. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Even as both Israel and the United States have claimed removing Iran's nuclear capabilities, independent analysis of available evidence suggests the setback is only short-term. High-resolution satellite imagery available so far shows clear above-ground damage, but there is no evidence yet of their impact on underground facilities, says Nithiyanandam. Such an analysis is in line with the US Defense Intelligence Agency's (DIA) assessment reported by CNN that said that US strikes did not destroy the core components of the Iranian nuclear programme located deep underground. The assessment further said that the stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed and centrifuges were also intact. Despite such limited damage, Iran is unlikely to pivot to developing a nuclear weapon as a desperate attempt to restore deterrence as such capabilities are compromised by the Israeli air superiority and Israeli ability to strike at will anywhere inside Iran, according to Kabir Taneja, a scholar of West Asia and Deputy Director of Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation (ORF). 'Severe but not irreversible damage': Evidence contradicts Trump on US strikes Of the three nuclear sites, Fordow was the one deemed most fortified. Estimates about its depth have ranged from 60-100 metres to half a mile underground. The site is not located under dozens or hundreds of metres of soil, but solid concrete, which may only be penetrated by American 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs, Daphne Richemond Barak, an Israeli specialist of underground warfare, previously told Firstpost. The United States hit Fordow and Natanz sites with 14 such bombs. The evidence so far shows the results were moderate at best and underwhelming at worst. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'At Fordow, satellite imagery shows at least six crater-like holes in rugged mountain terrain near what is presumed to be the facility's entrance. Additionally, Nasa's Fire Information for Resource Management System (Firms) detected a significant heat signature approximately 3 kilometres north from potentially a detonation point that could have triggered a shock deep into the site,' says Nithiyanandam, the geospatial intelligence analyst at Takshashila. A satellite image shows new airstrike craters on the perimeter of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Facility, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, near Qom, Iran, June 24, 2025. (Maxar Technologies/Handout via Reuters) If that explosion reached core structures, the operational disruption could be serious, though this remains speculative without internal visuals, says Nithiyanandam. Similarly, above-ground damage is visible in satellite images in Isfahan, which is a continuation from previous Israeli strikes, and above-ground damage is also visible at the Natanz facility, but underground damage is not certain. The combination picture on the left shows satellite views of tunnel entrances to the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Research Center before (below) and after (above) being hit by US airstrikes. The satellite image on the right shows the damaged tunnel entrances in a wider view. (Maxar Technologies/Handout via Reuters) INSERT PHOTO A combination picture shows satellite views of tunnel entrances to the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Research Center before and after being hit by U.S. airstrikes amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Isfahan, Iran, June 20, 2025 (above), and June 22, 2025. Maxar Technologies/Handout via Reuters - A satellite image shows damage to the tunnel entrances of the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Research Center, following U.S. airstrikes amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Isfahan, Iran, June 22, 2025. Maxar Technologies/Handout via Reuters STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD As for the Natanz site, Nithiyanandam says that two clear impacts are seen on open ground. Nithiyanandam tells Firstpost, 'One lies above the suspected location of the underground facility, suggesting a possible direct attempt to impair underground operations. However, without subsurface verification, it's uncertain whether the internal systems were hit.' Before and after satellite images captured on 15 and 22 June by Maxar Technologies show a 5.5-metre diameter crater directly over Iran's Natanz enrichment facility after US strikes. The site had been attacked twice before by Israel before a third strike by the US. 📷@Maxar — Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) June 22, 2025 Overall, Nithiyanandam says that considering the depth and design of these Iranian facilities, which were built to withstand attacks, it cannot be concluded from the evidence at hand that they have been permanently disabled. Nithiyanandam further says, 'The strikes likely caused operational pauses and forced emergency procedures, but whether the infrastructure is functionally neutralised requires ground-based inspections. As a geospatial analyst, I would say that the imagery indicates severe disturbance but not irreversible damage.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Does non-irreversible damage mean US & Israel failed? As the primary purpose of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel with the war on Iran was the decapitation of the country's nuclear programme, the failure to neutralise nuclear capabilities would imply the war's failure, but the reality is complicated. There had long been fears —since before Israel went to war with Iran— that Iran could decide to develop a nuclear weapon to restore deterrence if its conventional capabilities would be eroded greatly. Now that Iran has its back completely pushed to the wall as its military has been hammered, air defences virtually destroyed, and leadership largely eliminated, concerns have risen that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may finally give the go-ahead for the development of a nuclear weapon. It would not be so simple, says Taneja, the West Asia scholar and Deputy Director of the Strategic Studies Programme at the think tank ORF. Taneja tells Firstpost, 'Iran is not going to continue with political or nuclear brinkmanship. Dialogue will be limited. They will rush to make the bomb if they can, but they have a very big problem in the form of Israeli air dominance across the country that will likely not allow such a development. If Israel is able to sustain the air dominance for a prolonged period of time and continue bombing Iran, it will be very difficult for Iran to develop the bomb — at least in the short term. As of now, Iran has no answer to Israeli airstrikes.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In any case, the Iranian nuclear programme has been set back by at least two or two and a half years, says Taneja. Such an outcome may be a good enough outcome for Israel, Barak, the Israeli underground warfare specialist, previously told Firstpost. 'In such a case, it might appear that Israel would have lost, but that would not be the case. Even without destroying Fordow, Israel has degraded Iran's capabilities and set the Iranian nuclear programme back by many years. That is a good enough outcome for Israel short of complete destruction of nuclear capabilities,' said Barak, a professor of international relations at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy at Israel's Reichman University. Instead of satellite imagery, the answer to whether the US strikes succeeded or how much they succeeded, may lie in the radiation detection around the sites struck, suggests Nithiyanandam. Since the US strikes at the sites in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, no substantial radiation has been detected. Nithiyanandam says that could mean three things. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'It could mean one of three things. Firstly, the stockpiles were not at the targeted locations. Secondly, the stockpiles were not breached due to their secure underground positioning. Thirdly, the stockpiles were relocated in advance,' says Nithiyanandam. The DIA assessment as reported by the CNN said that the stockpile of near-weapons grade uranium was moved out of the targeted sites and was not destroyed. If the assessment is correct, it would mean that the US and Israel war efforts indeed faltered in the main objective. But that might only be a tactical setback as Netanyahu and Trump have eyes on the bigger prize of the fall of Khamenei's regime. 'Both Israel and the USA are serious about regime change or would like to be serious, but they cannot publicly and explicitly say it. If regime change happens, I think neither would have a problem. But President Trump is not going to purchase equity into that process. That would be a domestic disaster for him. I think the Israelis are more directly involved. Once again, he would rather have the Israelis do the dirty work while supporting them from behind than be in the forefront of any such adventure,' says Taneja. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
