Latest news with #Tawfik
Express Tribune
8 hours ago
- Business
- Express Tribune
Transport, communication show mixed performance
The finance minister's Economic Survey 202425 reveals a mixed performance in Pakistan's transport and communication sectors. While Karachi Port showed growth in cargo handling and Pakistan Railways posted higher earnings, challenges persisted. Notably, cargo at Port Qasim declined by 1.6%, and National Highway Authority (NHA) projects dropped from 123 to 105, indicating a slowdown in infrastructure development. Transport and communication remain central to the government's development priorities, as reflected in the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) for FY202425. An allocation of Rs161.26 billion was made for 105 NHA projects, including Rs149.28 billion for ongoing works and Rs11.98 billion for new schemes. This marks a reduction of 18 NHA projects compared to the previous year's PSDP, which had set aside Rs156.50 billion for 123 projects. Of that, Rs99.36 billion was allocated for 68 ongoing schemes and Rs48.12 billion for 52 new ones. Three Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) schemes were also included with a budget of Rs9.02 billion. Currently, the NHA manages 48 national highways, motorways, and strategic roads spanning 14,480kms. Despite fewer projects, the overall allocation rose from Rs156.50 billion to Rs161.26 billion, indicating a shift toward fewer but potentially larger or high-impact initiatives. Pakistan Railways operates 449 locomotives over a network of 7,791kms. In JulyMarch FY2025, gross earnings reached Rs65.17 billion, up from Rs53.7 billion in the same period last yeara notable improvement in operational revenue. Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) recorded mixed results. The national carrier's operating revenue declined by 16.8% in CY2024 to Rs204.16 billion, down from Rs238.5 billion in 2023. However, PIA cut operating expenses by 20.8%, bringing them down to Rs194.8 billion. This cost control enabled PIA to report an operating profit of Rs9.3 billiona rare positive despite falling revenues. Speaking to The Express Tribune, Arif Habib Limited's Head of Research Sana Tawfik said the transport and communication sector showed moderate progress in FY2025, supported by the government's Rs268 billion development allocation. Key entities like the NHA, Pakistan Railways, and PNSC sustained operations under CPEC and regional connectivity plans, though fiscal constraints and delays limited faster growth. Tawfik noted that consistent service across road, rail, maritime, and postal networks maintained essential connectivity. Future growth, she added, hinges on quicker execution of strategic projects aimed at cutting transport costs, digitising supply chains, and adopting energy-efficient freight solutions. She stressed that targeted investments in high-speed corridors, digital infrastructure, and cross-border trade routes are essential for improving efficiency, attracting private investment, and positioning Pakistan as a regional trade and logistics hub. The Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) operates 10 vessels with a combined 724,634 DWT capacity. PNSC's profit fell to Rs8.98 billion during JulyMarch FY2025, compared to Rs14.28 billion last year. The decline is attributed to a reduced fleet sizedown from 12 ships last year. Port Qasim Authority handled 33.8 million tonnes of cargoincluding bulk, liquid bulk, and general cargoin JulyMarch FY2025, a decrease of 1.6% from 34.3 million tonnes the previous year. In contrast, Karachi Port's cargo and container handling rose to 40.4 million tonnes in JulyMarch FY2025, compared to 38.9 million tonnes last year, showing resilience in maritime operations. KTrade Securities equity trader Ahmed Sheraz said the sector showed steady progress with Rs161.26 billion allocated for highways, Pakistan Railways earning Rs65.17 billion, and PIA posting a Rs9.3 billion profit. However, lower cargo handling at some ports signals trade challenges. Growth in broadcasting, with PEMRA's Rs2.1 million revenue and the expanded reach of Pakistan Broadcasting Corporation (PBC), highlights untapped potential. PEMRA currently oversees 139 satellite TV stations and 34 channels with broadcasting rights, down slightly from 140 and 35 last year. It contributed Rs2.1 million to the national exchequer in JulyMarch FY2025, compared to Rs2.75 million last year. JS Global's Head of Research, Waqas Ghani, noted that Pakistan's Rs268 billion allocation for transport and communication supports the URAAN Pakistan initiative to enhance connectivity, trade, and digital access. Pakistan Railways' improved 21% year-on-year earnings reflect growing efficiency and confidence in rail transport. PBC manages around 80 units across 32 stations. In FY2025, it received Rs6.4 billion, with 96% of funds released by March 2025 to support operations and content production.
The Sun
6 days ago
- Business
- The Sun
‘Cabinet reshuffle likely with resignation of two ministers'
PETALING JAYA: A Cabinet reshuffle now seems inevitable, whether it be a minor tweak or a major overhaul, following the recent resignations by two ministers. But one question continues to swirl – will Datuk Seri Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz remain in government? Currently on a haj pilgrimage, the Investment, Trade and Industry minister has stepped down from all his Umno positions and signalled his intent to join PKR. While some tout Tengku Zafrul as a potential replacement for Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli as the Economy minister, the looming expiry of his Senate term casts doubt over his future in Putrajaya. In Malaysian politics, little is off the table, but Tengku Zafrul's trajectory may take a different turn. According to Universiti Malaya Political Science Department senior lecturer Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub, Tengku Zafrul may be destined for a more prominent role, not at the federal level but in Selangor, the unity government's economic engine. 'I don't see him moving to the Economy Ministry. In fact, I believe he's being groomed for something bigger, the Selangor menteri besar post,' Tawfik told theSun via WhatsApp. 'The Economy Ministry is too small compared with the Investment, Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti) or leading Selangor. His track record in driving investments fits perfectly with Selangor's ambition as an industrial powerhouse. After all, the state contributes 25.9% of the nation's GDP, a microcosm of Malaysia.' Tawfik added that a by-election could pave the way for Langkah Zafrul – Zafrul's entry into state leadership. 'I expect a Cabinet reshuffle soon, and with his Senate term ending, it opens the door. Current Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Amirudin Shaari holds both the Sungai Tua state and Gombak parliamentary seats. 'If Amirudin moves to a federal role, it would make little sense for him to keep his state seat. A by-election in Sungai Tua could clear the path for Zafrul.' Amirudin retained the Sungai Tua seat in the 15th general election with a 5,185-vote majority, defeating Perikatan Nasional's Muhammad Hanif Jamaluddin and independent G. Suman. Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia professor Dr Kartini Aboo Talib believes Tengku Zafrul might stay in the Cabinet, possibly replacing Rafizi, though she doubts there would be any major shift in economic policy. 'What matters is the integrity of the Economy minister. Public interest must come first, not personal or crony agendas. 'We'll have to wait for the reshuffle. The prime minister still holds the Finance Ministry portfolio, but changes could involve Miti and the Economy Ministry. Nurul Izzah Anwar might also return, given her experience.' Political analyst Dr Lim Teck Ghee agrees that Tengku Zafrul is a strong contender for the economy portfolio but cautions that technical credentials alone are not enough. 'Tengku Zafrul has the financial expertise, he's the best fit on paper. 'But in our political landscape, leadership trumps technocratic ability. He'll have limited time to make an impact. Still, his appointment could boost PKR's image ahead of the next general election.' It was reported that Tengku Zafrul's decision to leave Umno had impacted the party's ministerial quota and bargaining power within the unity government, leading to calls from some Umno members for him to resign from his Cabinet position as Miti minister. However, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has affirmed that Tengku Zafrul would remain in his ministerial post, citing his strong performance in securing investments.
Business Recorder
24-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Pakistan budget 2025-26: expenditure likely to fall by massive Rs2 trillion, says report
Pakistan government is anticipated to unveil a budget outlay of Rs16.9 trillion for the upcoming fiscal year 2025-26, suggesting a notable reduction of 10.6% (or Rs2 trillion) compared to Rs18.9 trillion originally budgeted for FY2024-25, according to a local research house report. Arif Habib Limited's (AHL) report titled 'Pakistan Budget FY26 Preview - budget braces for balance' anticipated a notable reduction in total expenditure (budget outlay) in the wake of a significant cut in mark-up payment on the debt. IMF, govt to continue FY26 budget discussions 'over the coming days' The markup payment on the existing debt is likely to reduce to Rs8.5 trillion in FY26, compared to Rs9.8 trillion originally budgeted for FY25. 'It would be a balanced and a better budget (compared to FY25) considering a significant reducing in cost of borrowing in the wake of halving of the central bank's benchmark policy rate to 11% at present compared to 22% in the previous June,' AHL Head of Research Sana Tawfik said while talking to Business Recorder. The government is scheduled to unveil the budget for FY2025-26 on June 10. The reduction in the estimated expenditures would allow the government to shift its 'focus on fiscal discipline and reforms to stabilise the economy while offering targeted relief,' the report said. The AHL report estimated the overall budget would carry a fiscal deficit of Rs6.2 trillion, while collection of revenue (including non-tax revenue) totaling at Rs17.8 trillion in FY26. The budget deficit is calculated through subtracting provincial transfers estimated at Rs8.04 trillion and estimated provincial budget surplus at Rs950 billion from the gross revenue at Rs17.8 trillion for FY26. Tawfik added 'the other notable measures to be taken to balance the budget would be including tax relieves such as reduction in rate of super tax, rates of income tax for salaried class people, and rationalisation of tax rates on other heads'. The AHL anticipated numbers for the upcoming budget slightly differed with the ones reported in the media citing official sources in recent times. The research house said it projected numbers for the upcoming budget considering lower collection of revenue by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) at Rs11.83 trillion in the outgoing fiscal year 2024-25 compared to the one targeted (revised one) by the government at Rs12.37 trillion for the year. AHL report anticipated the markup payment on the existing debt would reduce to Rs8.5 trillion in FY26. The report said the government budgeted collection of revenue by the FBR at Rs14.3 trillion for FY26. The estimated number is based on the likely 'measures including GST [goods and services tax] on petroleum products, tax on retailers and wholesalers, and withdrawing exemptions.' 'The FBR tax to GDP ratio is projected at 11.3% in FY26 compared to 10.3% in FY25.' The government has budgeted current expenditure at Rs 16.2 trillion in FY26 considering decline in markup payments due to a significant reduction in interest rates, according to the report. It calculated the overall budget deficit at Rs6.5 trillion (or 5.1% of GDP). 'The drivers of increase the fiscal deficit would be including rise in current expenditure and decline in non-tax revenue (to Rs3.9 trillion) mainly due to projected reduction in SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) profits.' The research house estimated federal development budget (PSDP/public sector development programme) at Rs1.1 trillion, collection of revenue in petroleum development levy (PDL) at Rs1.4 trillion and SBP profit at Rs1.5 trillion in FY26. It forecasted new tax measures worth Rs869 billion in the budget for FY26 including income tax on retailers and wholesaler, imposition of GST at 3% on petroleum products, and removal of tax exemptions and duty for the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) and the Provincially Administered Tribal Areas (PATA) region, according to the report. 'Budget aligned with IMF [International Monetary Fund] rules, no tax amnesties, resolution of circular debt, and a National Fiscal Pact devolving spending to provinces among other measures.' Construction sector: builders, developers call for 15-year tax policy The report said the government projected economic growth at 3.6% in FY26 compared to estimated 2.68% in FY25. It anticipated average inflation reading would rise to 6.29% in FY26 from 4.63% in FY25, while current account deficit (CAD) to be recorded at $1.5 billion in the next fiscal year starting July 1, 2025 compared to a projected surplus of $1.6 billion in the outgoing fiscal year 2024-25. 'Govt is expected to broaden the tax base through the introduction of new regimes, adjustments in tax rates, and enhanced collection mechanisms. At the same time, the government will try to provide targeted relief to vulnerable segments of society.' 'The budget is likely neutral to positive for the stock market (Pakistan Stock Exchange) and overall economy,' the report said.
New Straits Times
27-04-2025
- Politics
- New Straits Times
Analysts: PN's old playbook cost them Ayer Kuning
KUALA LUMPUR: Perikatan Nasional's (PN) insistence on outdated strategies and its continued focus on sensitive 3R (race, religion, royalty) issues cost the coalition dearly in Ayer Kuning — a seat long regarded as a Barisan Nasional (BN) stronghold. Universiti Malaya senior lecturer in Political Science, Public Administration and Development Studies, Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub, said PN's failure to move beyond old political tactics would continue to erode its support, particularly in the run-up to the next general election. "PN lost this time because it continues to rely on outdated political strategies and approaches, such as racial party politics, rehashing old issues like the pig farming controversy, and depending on physical political rallies that failed to draw crowds. "If this approach persists in future by-elections or the 16th general election, PN's performance will only deteriorate further," he told the New Straits Times. Tawfik said the by-election, which saw BN emerge victorious in a three-cornered fight against PN and Parti Sosialis Malaysia, sent a clear signal to Malaysians that the country is moving towards a more mature and harmonious, value-based political culture. He said the election was largely peaceful, with no serious incidents of racial tension or unrest sparked by any party in an attempt to gain sympathy votes through provocative sentiments. "In fact, I observed that political parties, particularly PN, which attempted to inject such issues into their campaign, ultimately failed to influence the voters and the people of the Ayer Kuning state constituency," he said. Meanwhile, International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst and ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute fellow, Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri, said PN must urgently rethink its strategy if it hopes to remain relevant. She said the coalition, led by former prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, needed to focus on voters' needs, particularly in rural areas, rather than stoking sensitive issues that risked creating further division. "PN urgently needs to restrategise if it wants to move forward. Voters, particularly in rural and semi-urban constituencies, are looking for development and tangible improvements, not endless provocations. "While it is the opposition's role to highlight the government's shortcomings, they must also provide alternatives or solutions," she said. BN's resurgence through strategic alliance with PH Tawfik said that although voter turnout in Ayer Kuning was only 58.07 per cent — a figure that could be considered low — it was not the main factor behind Umno's Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir securing a majority of 5,016 votes. Instead, he attributed BN's victory to the strong collaboration between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and BN, strengthened by BN's adoption of a more targeted "man-to-man marking" strategy, which proved far more effective than PN's outdated campaigning methods. He said the by-election result was further proof of the growing momentum and consolidation of support under the unity government. "We cannot deny that this collaboration has been effective, as evidenced by the shift in support from PH voters to the BN candidate, and the significant increase in majority — more than double compared to the 15th General Election. "Furthermore, the opposition's attempts to discredit the cooperation through labels such as 'UMDAP' failed to gain traction. "Instead, the opposition became trapped in its own outdated political approach, which ultimately derailed their efforts to capture the Ayer Kuning seat," he said. Syaza also commended the cooperation, noting that the by-election result showed BN was beginning to regain trust, with PH voters now swinging their support to the Unity Government. "BN has shown, especially since last year, a growing support base. Being part of the government helps convince voters that they can help develop their areas. "But BN on its own is also regaining the trust of Malay voters who no longer see what PN has to offer," she said. BN, through Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir, retained the Ayer Kuning state seat in Perak with a majority of 5,016 votes. The Tapah Umno division secretary garnered 11,083 votes, surpassing PN's Abdul Muhaimin Malek, who received 6,067 votes, and Parti Sosialis Malaysia's K.S. Bawani, who obtained 1,105 votes. The by-election was triggered by the death of Umno's Ishsam Shahruddin, who died of a heart attack on 22 Feb. In the last election, Ishsam won the state seat during the 15th General Election in November 2022, securing a majority of 2,213 votes in a five-cornered contest. Nasional, Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional, Old tactics
Arab News
17-03-2025
- Business
- Arab News
IMF review talks keep stock investors jittery in Pakistan
KARACHI: Stock investors have been trading cautiously since last week when an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission arrived in Pakistan to review the country's economic performance under its reforms-oriented, $7 billion loan program, analysts said on Thursday. Pakistan's stocks turned green on Thursday after losing more than 300 points in the last three sessions, with the benchmark KSE-100 index gaining 0.9 percent to close at 115,094.23 points. The stocks, which have gained about 3 percent since March 3 when the IMF experts landed in the country, have been fluctuating and witnessed four bull-runs and as many bearish sessions. While the IMF and the government remain tightlipped about what they are discussing behind the closed doors, local media reports claim that the two sides are not on the same page over issues relating to Pakistan's revenue shortfall, debt sustainability, and the resolution of the country's power sector debt. The central bank unexpectedly maintaining the interest rate at 12 percent this week is being seen as another negative for stocks investors. 'The stock market is jittery because of the IMF review along with other factors,' Sana Tawfik, head of research at Karachi-based Arif Habib Ltd., told Arab News. She said the market was mainly reacting to news reports about the IMF expressing concern over Pakistan's tax shortfall of around Rs600 billion ($2.1 billion) and rejecting the government's plans to resolve the lingering circular debt that was expected to increase to as much as Rs1 trillion by June. The IMF wants Pakistan to increase its tax-to-GDP ratio, which is the lowest in the region, to 13 percent by taxing incomes from agriculture, real estate and retail sectors. Pakistan, however, fell short of the IMF-backed tax collection target this year. 'There is a concern in the market that this tax shortfall may upset the review,' Tawfik said, adding that the selling pressure and a lack of a proper trigger were other drags on the stock index. Ahsan Mehanti, chief executive officer at Arif Habib Commodities Ltd., said the issues being discussed with the IMF would have a 'direct impact' on stocks, including energy, cement and even the cost of borrowing that is directly related to economic growth. 'Generally higher interest rates are negative for the stocks and we believe the IMF certainly does play a role in the central bank's decisions,' Mehanti told Arab News. Pakistan's policymakers avoid squeezing the interest rate much at a time when the IMF is reviewing the release of its first tranche under the $7 billion program. 'The market expects IMF's proposal may be growth negative owing to higher interest rates to check inflation risks, thin LSM (large-scale manufacturing) growth in case of a cut in the PSDP (public sector development program) or refusals of circular debt plans,' the commodity analyst said. But Amjad Waheed, chief executive officer at the NBP Fund Management Ltd., held a different view and said the recent fluctuation looked more like a case of profit-taking as investors booked handsome profits during the last couple of years, when the stock market rose as much as 84 percent. 'The IMF talks are ongoing stable and as per routine. I haven't heard of any tough conditions that the IMF is going to set,' said Waheed, who manages billions of rupees of investor savings. 'People have earned enough and some people now booking profit is normal. The market corrects a bit because of profit-taking.' The fund manager said some investors might be selling their stocks as their expectation for a rate cut of as much as 1,500 basis points could not materialize because of Monday's decision by the central bank. 'As an investor I am very conscious at the moment. I am holding on to my stocks. I am holding on to my investments. I am very careful with that,' Isra Ghous Rasool, a 22-year-old stock investor from Karachi, told Arab News in a recent interview.
