Analysts: PN's old playbook cost them Ayer Kuning

New Straits Times

27-04-2025

KUALA LUMPUR: Perikatan Nasional's (PN) insistence on outdated strategies and its continued focus on sensitive 3R (race, religion, royalty) issues cost the coalition dearly in Ayer Kuning — a seat long regarded as a Barisan Nasional (BN) stronghold.
Universiti Malaya senior lecturer in Political Science, Public Administration and Development Studies, Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub, said PN's failure to move beyond old political tactics would continue to erode its support, particularly in the run-up to the next general election.
"PN lost this time because it continues to rely on outdated political strategies and approaches, such as racial party politics, rehashing old issues like the pig farming controversy, and depending on physical political rallies that failed to draw crowds.
"If this approach persists in future by-elections or the 16th general election, PN's performance will only deteriorate further," he told the New Straits Times.
Tawfik said the by-election, which saw BN emerge victorious in a three-cornered fight against PN and Parti Sosialis Malaysia, sent a clear signal to Malaysians that the country is moving towards a more mature and harmonious, value-based political culture.
He said the election was largely peaceful, with no serious incidents of racial tension or unrest sparked by any party in an attempt to gain sympathy votes through provocative sentiments.
"In fact, I observed that political parties, particularly PN, which attempted to inject such issues into their campaign, ultimately failed to influence the voters and the people of the Ayer Kuning state constituency," he said.
Meanwhile, International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst and ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute fellow, Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri, said PN must urgently rethink its strategy if it hopes to remain relevant.
She said the coalition, led by former prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, needed to focus on voters' needs, particularly in rural areas, rather than stoking sensitive issues that risked creating further division.
"PN urgently needs to restrategise if it wants to move forward. Voters, particularly in rural and semi-urban constituencies, are looking for development and tangible improvements, not endless provocations.
"While it is the opposition's role to highlight the government's shortcomings, they must also provide alternatives or solutions," she said.
BN's resurgence through strategic alliance with PH
Tawfik said that although voter turnout in Ayer Kuning was only 58.07 per cent — a figure that could be considered low — it was not the main factor behind Umno's Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir securing a majority of 5,016 votes.
Instead, he attributed BN's victory to the strong collaboration between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and BN, strengthened by BN's adoption of a more targeted "man-to-man marking" strategy, which proved far more effective than PN's outdated campaigning methods.
He said the by-election result was further proof of the growing momentum and consolidation of support under the unity government.
"We cannot deny that this collaboration has been effective, as evidenced by the shift in support from PH voters to the BN candidate, and the significant increase in majority — more than double compared to the 15th General Election.
"Furthermore, the opposition's attempts to discredit the cooperation through labels such as 'UMDAP' failed to gain traction.
"Instead, the opposition became trapped in its own outdated political approach, which ultimately derailed their efforts to capture the Ayer Kuning seat," he said.
Syaza also commended the cooperation, noting that the by-election result showed BN was beginning to regain trust, with PH voters now swinging their support to the Unity Government.
"BN has shown, especially since last year, a growing support base. Being part of the government helps convince voters that they can help develop their areas.
"But BN on its own is also regaining the trust of Malay voters who no longer see what PN has to offer," she said.
BN, through Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir, retained the Ayer Kuning state seat in Perak with a majority of 5,016 votes.
The Tapah Umno division secretary garnered 11,083 votes, surpassing PN's Abdul Muhaimin Malek, who received 6,067 votes, and Parti Sosialis Malaysia's K.S. Bawani, who obtained 1,105 votes.
The by-election was triggered by the death of Umno's Ishsam Shahruddin, who died of a heart attack on 22 Feb.
In the last election, Ishsam won the state seat during the 15th General Election in November 2022, securing a majority of 2,213 votes in a five-cornered contest. Nasional, Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional, Old tactics