Latest news with #Taxpayers'Union-CuriaPoll
NZ Herald
19 hours ago
- Politics
- NZ Herald
New political poll: Christopher Luxon's popularity drops to lowest in two years, Labour sees party vote rise
For the party vote, National is on 34%, only a point ahead of the opposition. Labour gained 4% in the latest poll, sitting at 33%. The Green Party is down 2% to 10% while NZ First continues its upward trajectory, gaining 1% in the party vote to 9%. No movement for Act and Te Pāti Māori who both sit on 8% and 4%, respectively. It comes after the Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll this morning showed the race between the centre-left and centre-right were neck-and-neck. On those results, Labour had the most support on 33.6% (up 2 points), National was on 31.8% (down 2.1) and the Greens were up 0.4 to 9.8%. Act dropped 0.5 to 8.6%, New Zealand First was down 2 points to 7.8% and Te Pāti Māori fell 0.3 to 3.2%. Just over 6% were undecided. Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick. Photo / Mark Mitchell Converting those results into seats in the House, Labour would have 43, National would have 40, the Greens would have 12, Act would have 11, New Zealand First would have 10 and Te Pāti Māori would get six (presuming they kept their electorate seats). This would put both the centre-left and the centre-right on 61 seats, meaning no side would have a majority to govern. Looking at the Preferred Prime Minister stakes, National's Christopher Luxon was up 0.5 to 20.2%, matched by Labour's Chris Hipkins (who was up 0.6). NZ First leader Winston Peters was down 1.1 points to 8.2%, the Greens' Chlöe Swarbrick was up 1 point to 8%, and Act leader David Seymour was up 0.5 to 6.2%. Lara Greaves, associate professor in politics at Victoria University of Wellington, told Herald Now this morning that a first-term government would be expected to be polling better, but Labour also had work to do, with it yet to release any policies. The latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll was taken between August 3-5. The poll, conducted by phone and online, had a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. Julia Gabel is a Wellington-based political reporter. She joined the Herald in 2020 and has most recently focused on data journalism.
Scoop
a day ago
- Business
- Scoop
NEW POLL: Hung Parliament As National Fall Behind Labour
Facing a sluggish economy, the Government Coalition sees another bad poll result, as they fall to neck-and-neck with the Centre-Left bloc in this month's Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll. The poll, conducted between 03 and 05 August, shows Labour overtake National as the largest party, gaining 2.0 points to 33.6 percent. National drops 2.1 points to 31.8 percent. The Greens gain 0.4 points to 9.8 percent, while ACT drops 0.5 points to 8.6 percent. New Zealand First drops 2.0 points to 7.8 percent, while Te Pāti Māori drops 0.3 points to 3.2 percent. Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at For the minor parties, TOP is on 2.6 percent (+1.4 points), Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.1 percent (+1.0 points) and Vision NZ is on 0.4 percent (+0.4 points). This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in June 2025, available at The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 61 is down 4 seats from last month. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is up 4 seats to 61. On these numbers, neither the Centre-Left nor the Centre-Right bloc would have enough seats to form a Government, and there would be a hung Parliament. Labour gains 4 seats to 43, while National drops 2 to 40. The Greens remain on 12, and ACT remain on 11. New Zealand First is down 2 to 10, while Te Pāti Māori remain unchanged on 6. Cost of Living is voters' top issue at 24.4 percent (+2.8 points), closely followed by the Economy more generally at 20.7 percent (+1.6 points). Combined, these two issues are the most important for 45.1 percent of voters. Health is the next largest issue on 10.0 percent, followed by Employment on 6.0 percent. Commenting on the results, Taxpayers' Union Spokesman James Ross said: "Why have the Government taken a beating in the polls? It's the economy, stupid. This month's results show it's not just Treasury giving the Government a dressing-down over their fiscal inaction." "As part of this month's poll, the Taxpayers' Union also commissioned Curia to ask voters about the performance of the Government across a list of economic management issues. The results will be released later this week, and appear to indicate why the Government is losing so much support to the opposition parties." "Cost of living and lack of growth are biting families in the back-pocket. Until the Government starts making the tough calls, they'll be clinging on to power by their fingertips." SUMMARY STATEMENT The full poll results can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers' Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday 03 August and Tuesday 05 August 2025. It has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%. NOTES: The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd. The Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 03 August and Tuesday 05 August 2025. The median response was collected on Monday 04 August 2025. The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. A random selection of 10,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded. The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise. This poll should be formally referred to as the ' Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll'. The New Zealand Taxpayers' Union is an independent and membership-driven activist group, dedicated to being the voice for Kiwi taxpayers in the corridors of power. Its mission, lower taxes, less waste, more accountability, is supported by 200,000 subscribed members and supporters.
NZ Herald
a day ago
- Business
- NZ Herald
New political poll predicts hung Parliament for NZ Election 2026
The race for Election 2026 appears to be on a knife-edge, with a new political poll predicting a hung Parliament. The latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll – taken between August 3-5 – comes after a string of negative headlines about the economy.
Otago Daily Times
a day ago
- Business
- Otago Daily Times
Hung Parliament projected in new political poll
By Anneke Smith of RNZ The race for Election 2026 appears to be on a knife edge, with a new political poll predicting a hung Parliament. The latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll - taken between 3 and 5 August - comes after a string of negative headlines about the economy. Labour has overtaken National as the largest party, gaining 2 points to 33.6 percent, while National drops 2.1 points to 31.8 percent. The Greens are up 0.4 points to 9.8 percent, ACT is down 0.5 points to 8.6 percent, New Zealand First is down 2 points to 7.8 percent and Te Pāti Māori down 0.3 points to 3.2 percent. If an election were held today, the centre-right bloc would lose four MPs for a total 61 seats, while the centre-left bloc would gain four MP and also reach a total 61 seats. With neither bloc having the upper hand, it would be a hung Parliament. The last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll showed the coalition parties reasserting their lead with enough support for 65 seats, driven by a surge in support for New Zealand First. Party vote Labour 33.6 percent, up 2 percentage points (43 seats) National 31.8 percent, down 2.1 (40 seats) Greens: 9.8 percent, up 0.5 (12 seats) ACT: 8.6 percent, down 0.5 (11 seats) NZ First: 7.8 percent, down 2 (10 seats) Te Pāti Māori: 3.2 percent, down 0.3 points (6 seats) For the minor parties, TOP is up 1.4 points to 2.6 percent, Outdoors and Freedom is up 1 point to 1.1 percent and Vision NZ is up 0.4 points on 0.4 percent. Cost of living remains voters' most important issue at 24.4 percent (+2.8 points), closely followed by the economy more generally at 20.7 percent (+1.6 points). Health is the next largest issue on 10.0 percent, followed by employment on 6.0 percent. Preferred prime minister Christopher Luxon: 20.2 per cent, up 0.5 Chris Hipkins: 20.2 per cent, up 0.6 Winston Peters: 8.2 per cent, down 1.1 Chlöe Swarbrick: 8 per cent, up 1 David Seymour: 6.2 per cent, up 0.5 In preferred Prime Minister ratings, Christopher Luxon is up 0.5 points to 20.2 percent while Chris Hipkins is up 0.6 points to also sit at 20.2 percent. Winston Peters is down 1.1 points to 8.2 percent, Chlöe Swarbrick is up 1.0 point to 8 percent, and David Seymour is up 0.5 points to 6.2 percent. The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers' Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent and 6.2 percent were undecided on the party vote question. Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand, which has resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body. Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.
NZ Herald
a day ago
- Politics
- NZ Herald
Christopher Luxon speaks to media as new poll predicts hung parliament in Election 2026
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon following annual talks with Anthony Albanese, and a helicopter ride to surrounding peaks including the Humboldt glacier. Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech. Christopher Luxon speaks to media as new poll predicts hung parliament in Election 2026 Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is due to speak to the media this morning on the back of a weekend spent with his Australian counterpart, Anthony Albanese, as a new pollpredicts a hung parliament for Election 2026. Luxon will be speaking with Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking at 7.37am. You can watch the livestream when the interview begins or listen live below. The latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll released this morning shows Labour as having overtaken National as the largest party, gaining 2 points to 33.6%, while National drops 2.1 points to 31.8%. RNZ reported that the Greens are up 0.4 points to 9.8%, Act is down 0.5 points to 8.6%, New Zealand First is down 2 points to 7.8% and Te Pāti Māori is down 0.3 points to 3.2%.
