19-05-2025
Algeria Between Deepening Isolation and Escalation without Prospects
Algeria is going through a sensitive diplomatic phase, one marked by escalating tensions with numerous regional and global actors. At times, this diplomatic escalation appears aimed at deflecting attention from mounting domestic crises, reflecting the Algerian regime's attempts to shift focus toward external issues, away from the economic and social challenges facing the Algerian population. In this context, Algeria's role in regional crises is becoming increasingly prominent, with tensions involving countries such as the UAE, France, the Sahel states, and Morocco standing out as key indicators of the challenges confronting Algerian foreign policy.
The Algeria–UAE Escalation threatens the unity of the Arab Summit
The Algerian diplomatic campaign against the UAE constitutes a serious and unconventional escalation in relations between the two countries, particularly after the attack on the UAE was launched in the opening editorial of Algeria's state television, following a statement by an Algerian historian regarding the relationship between the Amazigh and France.
This escalation was not a direct response to the UAE but rather to a cultural and historical comment that was not directly related to Algerian politics. The matter could have been addressed through a traditional approach, such as an official statement or governmental clarification, but the Algerian regime chose to escalate the issue through official media channels.
This move may reflect an attempt by the Algerian regime to divert attention away from the economic and social crises it is facing, particularly amid mounting public pressure and growing domestic demands for genuine reforms. Moreover, this escalation reflects a diplomatic tension occurring at a time when other regional players, such as Morocco, are strengthening their influence in the region, highlighting a clear decline in Algeria's regional sway.
Notably, Algeria's escalation against the United Arab Emirates coincided with Iraq's preparations to host the Arab Summit on May 17. The Algerian diplomatic campaign was preceded by an online campaign led by activists on social media under the hashtag #Teboune_DoN't_Travel_to_Iraq. Some interpreted this as a signal that the Algerian president may excuse himself from attending the summit and instead send a representative in his place.
They argued that the escalating crisis between Algeria and the UAE was likely to have negative repercussions on the then upcoming Baghdad Summit. Amid sharp diplomatic rhetoric and public exchanges of accusations, they suggested, Algeria may choose to reduce its level of representation at the summit or even abstain from participating altogether.
Similarly, the UAE may take comparable steps or downgrade its representation in protest against Algeria's campaign. Even if both parties chose to attend the summit at some level, the overall atmosphere of the summit stood to be fraught with tension, making it difficult to envision constructive discussions on shared regional issues. Some actors could have even exploited the summit to fuel divisions or attempt mediation efforts, potentially diverting the agenda from key issues — particularly in light of the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza.
Algeria and the conspiracy narrative after the Hirak
Since the popular Hirak movement, in which the masses demanded the departure of the ruling elite viewed as an extension of the former regime led by the late Abdelaziz Bouteflika, Algeria has adhered to a conspiracy narrative. This strategy has largely been deployed as a way of explaining away the internal and external crises the current regime faces, consistently placing blame on foreign and domestic actors allegedly seeking to destabilize the country.
As a result, Algerian-French relations have recently experienced sharp fluctuations due to the accumulation of disagreements over historical memory issues, the migration file, and security cooperation. The crisis between the two countries has reached a stage of mutual expulsion of diplomats, reflecting the failure of coordination and weakened mutual trust. This diplomatic tension is merely an attempt by Algeria to divert the local public's attention to external issues, away from its escalating internal problems. Instead of addressing the economic challenges Algeria faces, the Algerian regime has chosen to escalate tensions with a country that was, until recently, considered a friend. This further isolates Algeria on the international stage and puts its interests at risk at a time when it needs more economic and diplomatic cooperation.
The Algerian regime did not stop at escalating its crisis with France but also created another crisis with the Sahel countries such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, which represents another turning point in Algeria's foreign policy. This escalation began after these countries decided to recall their ambassadors from Algeria, accusing it of downing a drone belonging to the Malian military. Such developments put Algeria in a defensive position, where it tried to justify its actions by claiming a 'violation of airspace,' but this did not prevent the rising accusations against it. Algeria also closed its airspace to these countries, further complicating relations between Algeria and the Sahel countries.
Morocco expands its influence, while Algeria loses its luster
These tensions come at a time when regional and international interventions in the area are increasing, with the Sahel countries beginning to view Morocco as a regional partner capable of playing an active role in enhancing cooperation and joint development. In this context, Algeria appears to be in a less influential position compared to Morocco, which is building new relationships that strengthen its development and diplomatic strategies in the region.
As for the crisis between Algeria and its neighbor Morocco, it is no less complicated, as the issue of Western Sahara remains the main cause of the ongoing tensions between the two countries. Algeria continues to adopt hostile stances through diplomatic tools aimed at hindering Morocco's progress in its regional and international efforts. Algeria exploits this lingering Sahara dispute to promote its positions on the international stage, despite the regional and international developments showing a shift in the balance of power in favor of Morocco. In particular, despite Algeria's relentless efforts to undermine or slow down the increasingly pro-Moroccan momentum on the Sahara question, the past few months and years have seen a steep increase in the number of countries that have either opened a consulate in the region, endorsed Morocco's Autonomy Plan, or spoken emphatically in support for Morocco's sovereignty over the Sahara.
When a country stumbles in the race for influence, the game doesn't stop; instead, others rise to the forefront. In this way, Morocco has continued to strengthen its role in the region through quiet diplomacy, balancing its political messages and actively participating in new regional alliances. It not only manages the Sahara issue but also works on developing development projects that benefit the Sahel countries and North Africa as a whole. This contrasts with Algeria, which finds itself trapped in positions that fail to reflect the changing regional realities.
Overall, Algeria is undergoing a sensitive phase of diplomatic tensions that intersect with both its internal and external crises. The escalation with the UAE, France, the Sahel countries, and Morocco is not only a reflection of regional issues but also ongoing attempts to divert attention from the internal challenges faced by the Algerian regime. This policy could further isolate Algeria on the international stage at a time when economic and social challenges within the country are intensifying. It is crucial for Algeria to reconsider its foreign and domestic policies in an effort to restore balance and seek ways to cooperate and integrate with its neighbors and international partners, ensuring the restoration of its long lost prestige and faltering regional and international standing. Tags: AlgeriaAlgerian regime
