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New Indian Express
01-08-2025
- Business
- New Indian Express
Markets extend losses to fifth week, longest slump since August 2023
India's equity benchmarks extended their losses for the fifth straight week, marking their longest losing streak since August 2023, as concerns over Trump-era tariffs, subdued Q1 earnings, and persistent foreign institutional investor (FIl) outflows dampened hopes of a recovery. Over the past five weeks, the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 have declined 3.60% and 3.73%, respectively. The sell-off has been even more pronounced in the broader market, with the Nifty Midcap 100 dropping over 5% and the Smallcap index plunging more than 7% during the same period. 'Several factors have contributed to the shift in tone — from renewed concerns around the progress of India–U.S. trade negotiations, to persistent FII outflows, and a string of underwhelming corporate earnings that failed to meet market expectations,' said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research, SBI Securities. He added that the Nifty is now trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and even 100-day EMA — a sign of mounting weakness. FIIs offloaded equities worth over 42,000 crore (net) in July, more than double their net purchases over the past four months combined. The selling spree gained momentum as India Inc's subdued Q1 earnings dampened sentiment, while delays in the India-US trade deal further accelerated the outflow. Following a 25% tariff slapped by US President Donald Trump on India earlier this week which led to a steep decline in shares of companies that earn a big chunk of their revenue from the US market, brokerage firm Nuvama said that the higher tariffs on India (versus expectations) could potentially weigh on capital flows.
Time of India
01-08-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Explained: Why Nifty50, BSE Sensex have closed in red for 5th week in row; top 5 reasons
FIIs have consistently sold Indian stocks during the past 9 trading sessions. (AI image) Indian stock markets indices, Nifty50 and BSE Sensex , ended the week down over 1%. In fact, the benchmark indices have seen their fifth consecutive week of closing in red. Nifty50 has dropped over 270 points this week, while BSE Sensex plunged over 860 points. ' The benchmark index Nifty wrapped up its fifth consecutive week in the red — its longest losing streak since August 2023, raising eyebrows across the street. What adds to the concern is the back-to-back formation of bearish candles with long upper shadows on the weekly chart. This pattern is a classic sign of rejection at higher levels,' says Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research, SBI Securities. "Despite making multiple attempts to scale up, the index has struggled to hold ground, only to be met with selling pressure each time. The long upper wicks are a telling story — bulls tried, but bears had the final say. It reflects a market that's finding it hard to build on gains, weighed down by renewed supply pressure and a cautious sentiment hovering overhead," he added. Nifty50 sees longest weekly losing streak in 2 years The broader markets weren't spared either. Both the Nifty Midcap and Nifty Small Cap 100 indices came under notable selling pressure and have now underperformed the frontline index for the second consecutive week. The Nifty Pharma index recorded a 3.3% decline on Friday, marking its third consecutive negative session and registering a weekly loss of 2.9%. Global pharmaceutical companies saw pressure following the White House's directive to 17 international drug manufacturers asking for reduced prescription drug prices in the US to align with global standards. Why is the Indian stock market falling? What's driving the bearish sentiment? According to SBI Securities, several factors have contributed to this shift in tone — from renewed concerns around the progress of India–US trade negotiations, to persistent FII outflows, and a string of underwhelming corporate earnings that failed to meet market expectations. 1) Unrelenting FII selloff Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue their selling trend, with a substantial Rs 5,588.91 crore worth of shares sold on Thursday. FIIs have consistently sold Indian stocks during the past 9 trading sessions, with the selloff reaching Rs 27,000 crore. FIIs have established record bearish positions, with short positions in index futures reaching 90%, the highest level since March 2023. The long-to-short ratio declined to 0.11 at the August series commencement, whilst the Nifty rollover rate decreased to 75.71% in July from June's 79.53%. "Investor sentiment weakened further as FIIs now hold the second-highest net short position in derivatives, reflecting elevated caution," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments. The significant increase in the dollar index to 100 has further accelerated the FII selloff. "FIIs had been selling right through the month. So, they probably had an inkling that the BTA is not really going India's way, and there were other factors around the FIIs selling, which was China looking very good from a valuation and a growth upgrade perspective. I think China's growth is now projected to shoot up to 4.8," market expert Sunil Subramaniam was quoted as saying in an ET report. 2) Donald Trump's 25% Tariff on India Market confidence deteriorated after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order that imposed a higher-than-anticipated 25% tariff on India. The prospect of additional penalty for India's purchase of Russian oil and arms has also weighed on sentiment. "The Indian equity market extended its decline for a second day, pressured by renewed tariff threats and punitive duties that could undermine India's global trade competitiveness," said Nair of Geojit Investments. 3) Underwhelming Q1 results India Inc's first quarter earnings have seen muted and underwhelming results. Over the last 30 days, the IIT index has declined by 10%, whilst the Nifty Bank is flat. The combined performance of India's leading nine private sector banks showed modest growth of 2.7%, indicating cautious economic expansion and subdued lending activity. 4) Global Markets Hit Asian markets saw big losses on Friday as traders evaluated new US tariff implications whilst awaiting US employment statistics. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) declined by 1.5%, seeing a weekly dip of approximately 2.7%. European shares displayed weakness, with the Stoxx 600 declining 1%, moving towards its poorest weekly performance since April. "Global equity markets were mostly weak over the past week, as the US tariff saga continued. The Indian equity market continued to underperform global equity markets in the past week," Shrikant Chouhan, Head – Equity Research said. 5) Strong US Dollar The US dollar index has seen a big 2.5% increase over the week, going beyond 100 and achieving its highest level in two months. This has been the dollar's best week in approximately three years. The strengthening dollar has led to increased capital outflows from emerging economies, India included. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . Discover stories of India's leading eco-innovators at Ecopreneur Honours 2025
Time of India
28-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Stock market at near two-month lows: Why are FIIs selling Indian stocks? Explained
The stock market downturn is being attributed to the persistent FII selloff. (AI image) Indian stock markets are at near two month lows - Nifty50 and BSE Sensex have dropped over 2% in the last few trading sessions. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are on a selling spree! On Monday, Nifty50 and BSE Sensex declined for the third consecutive day. Equity benchmark indices have been dropping for four straight weeks. The stock market downturn is being attributed to the persistent FII selloff and the rising uncertainty of whether India will be able to seal a trade deal with the US before Donald Trump's August 1 deadline. Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited says, 'FII selling of Rs 13552 crores in the cash market last week has added to the weakness in the market. Yet another concern is the Q1 results, which are not yet indicating any major positive surprises.' Why are FIIs Selling Indian Stocks ? Over the past four months, FIIs remained net buyers in the Indian cash market, investing a total of ₹24,011 crore — averaging over ₹6,000 crore per month. However, this trend has sharply reversed in July, with FIIs pulling out ₹28,528 crore so far till Friday, signaling a significant shift in sentiment. This selling has been far more aggressive than the pockets of mild buying seen on select days, says Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research, SBI Securities. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Cote D'ivoire: Unsold Sofas at Bargain Prices (Prices May Surprise You) Sofas | Search Ads Search Now Undo 'Alongside, the FII long-short ratio in index futures has dropped steeply from 36.4 on June 30 to just 14.83 by July 24, driven by a sharp rise in short positions — net contracts worsening from -38,123 to -1.45 lakh,' Sudeep Shah tells TOI. He is of the view that multiple factors seem to be at play. 'The US dollar has strengthened by 0.88% since the start of July, making Indian assets relatively less attractive. Additionally, expectations of a Fed rate cut, lack of any major trade deal announcement involving India, and the impact of the Jane Street ban have also weighed on FII sentiment,' Sudeep Shah says. 'This combination of heavy outflows, rising shorts, and low confidence has contributed to a 3.24% decline in the Nifty from its July highs, reflecting the nervousness in the broader market,' he adds. According to Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, FII activity picked up in July 2025, driven by a mix of global macro developments, short-term policy uncertainty, and cautious positioning. 'One of the main reasons behind this cautiousness is the delay in finalising the India–US trade agreement. Conversations around tariffs and digital trade rules have added some ambiguity, prompting foreign investors to hold back a bit and watch how things unfold. On top of that, Q1 FY26 earnings have been slightly slow in some FII-heavy sectors like IT and financials,' Rajani told TOI. She attributes the FII positions to global factors and headwinds as well. 'The US 10-year Treasury yield has been climbing and the dollar is gaining strength, leading some global investors to rebalance their portfolios with more exposure to the US. In the derivatives segment, we're also seeing over 80% short positions by FIIs in index futures, which looks more like a tactical response to the current uncertainty than a directional call. Whenever FII positioning has reached around 80% on either the long or short side, markets have often seen a reversal in direction,' she said. Indian Stock Markets Resilient Shweta Rajani is confident that India's macro fundamentals continue to offer support. 'GDP growth remains strong at 6.5% for FY25 and is projected at 6.6% for FY26, maintaining India's status as the fastest-growing major economy. Inflation is well under control, with CPI at 2.1% in June and expected to stay below the RBI's 3.7% target,' she explains. 'Fiscal strength is also evident, the FY25 deficit narrowed to 4.8% of GDP, aided by disciplined spending and a record ₹2.7 lakh crore RBI dividend. Tax collections have been robust, growing 13.7% in FY25, reflecting strong economic activity. Also, DII inflows of ₹37,687 crore this month, have helped cushion the impact of foreign outflows and provided a layer of stability,' she adds. 'Overall, these phases are a normal part of market cycles. With strong domestic fundamentals and active DII support, Indian markets remain in a neutral zone where FII selling alone is unlikely to cause a sharp correction. Investors should stay focused on long-term goals and avoid reacting to short-term fluctuations,' she concludes. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Mint
27-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Market watch: Global economic events, US trade talks outcome to drive market sentiment
Mumbai [India], : The upcoming week is set to be crucial for stock markets, with a flurry of key economic events scheduled across the United States, India, and China. Market experts suggest that investor sentiment could be significantly influenced by economic indicators, particularly the outcome of ongoing trade deal discussions between India and the US, which are being closely monitored for signs of progress. "The week from 28 July to 01 August 2025 is packed with key economic events across the United States, India, and China, which could significantly influence global market sentiment," the Bajaj Broking Research team said in its weekly market note. Meanwhile, experts say that positive surprises from the first-quarter financial season could positively shape sentiment. "At this stage, any positive development on the global front, particularly around trade negotiations involving the US, could act as a much-needed catalyst for the market. A constructive outcome or even signs of progress in trade talks would help ease investor concerns. Also, from the remainder of Quarterly Results, any positive surprise could also lead to providing support at lower levels," said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research, SBI Securities. In India, the economic week begins with the release of the Industrial Production YoY data on 28 July, which will help assess the strength of the country's industrial sector. This will be followed by the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI on August 1, which will offer insights into factory output and business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, China will release its Manufacturing PMI data on 31 July, an important indicator of industrial activity and business confidence in the region. In the United States, attention will be firmly on the Federal Reserve's FOMC rate decision, scheduled for July 30, a critical event that could shape expectations around interest rate policy amid persistent inflation concerns. Alongside this, the GDP Annualised QoQ and ADP Employment Change data will also be released on the same day, offering a glimpse into the economic growth trajectory and private sector hiring trends. On 31 July, the Initial Jobless Claims report will provide further clarity on the health of the labour market. The benchmark Nifty index has continued its downward trajectory, extending its losing streak for the fourth consecutive week. The analysts stated that the persistent weakness in the market can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the absence of strong positive triggers, Q1 earnings from key corporates coming in below expectations, and lingering uncertainty on the global trade deal front, all of which have dampened investor sentiment. During the week, the index made a feeble attempt to rebound from the crucial support zone; however, the recovery lacked conviction and fizzled out quickly. On Wednesday, Nifty managed to close above its 20-day EMA, briefly reviving hopes of a turnaround. But the optimism was short-lived, as renewed selling pressure dragged the index back into negative territory. The earnings season so far has largely fallen short of expectations, with several major companies reporting weaker-than-anticipated results. This underperformance has dampened investor sentiment, particularly at a time when markets were expecting strong earnings to serve as a key catalyst for upward momentum. Beyond earnings, the absence of any significant positive domestic triggers and the continued uncertainty surrounding global trade negotiations have added to the cautious mood. These combined factors are contributing to the downward pressure on the market, according to the market analysts. While weak earnings alone may not be the sole reason for the market correction, when coupled with global headwinds and a lack of fresh buying triggers, they certainly add weight to the bearish undertone prevailing in the current environment. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
