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Asia News Network
3 days ago
- Politics
- Asia News Network
Thailand's political index drops to 3.86 amid border tensions, floods
August 4, 2025 BANGKOK – Thailand's political index dropped to 3.86 in July, reflecting growing public concerns over a range of issues, including tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border and flooding in the North, Suan Dusit Poll reported on Sunday. The poll, conducted by Suan Dusit University, revealed that the index — based on 25 indicators — had declined from 4.13 in June, with almost all indicators showing a decrease. The survey was conducted among 2,171 respondents between 26 and 31 July. The results showed that only one indicator — the government's disclosure of public information — had improved, rising from 4.11 in June to 4.20 in July. Two indicators remained unchanged from the previous month: Overall performance of political parties: 4.20 Overall social situation: 4.08 The top five indicators were: Opposition performance: 4.36 (down from 5.15 in June) People's rights and liberties: 4.34 (4.58 in June) Public education development: 4.33 (4.45 in June) People's inclusion: 4.31 (4.38 in June) Overall performance of political parties: 4.20 (unchanged) Asst Prof Kanyakarn Sathiensukhon of Suan Dusit Poll said several incidents in June had affected public sentiment, including reports of sex scandals involving senior Buddhist monks, the Thai-US trade negotiations, an audio clip of a conversation between Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodian Senate president Hun Sen, Thai-Cambodian border clashes, and flooding in the North. She noted that the indicator measuring the prime minister's performance fell from 3.97 in June to 3.43 in July — the lowest score so far this year — reflecting growing dissatisfaction with both the government's performance and its communication with the public. The survey found the top three government achievements were: 42.21%: Sending explanations to the United States regarding border conflicts 40.51%: Providing support to people along the Thai-Cambodian border 17.28%: Implementing the 20-baht flat fare policy for electric railways The top three performing government politicians were:
The Star
03-08-2025
- Politics
- The Star
Thailand's political index drops to 3.86 amid border tensions, floods
A soldier consoles Kimdaeng Krajangthong (L) and Tin Krajangthong (2nd L), the parents of Royal Thai Army soldier Theerayuth Krajangthong, 22, who died in clashes between Thailand and Cambodia in Sisaket province, during funeral rites at a Buddhist temple in the Thai border province of Buriram on July 30, 2025. he recent survey found that one of the top government achievements was providing support to people along the Thai-Cambodian border. - AFP BANGKOK: Thailand's political index dropped to 3.86 in July, reflecting growing public concerns over a range of issues, including tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border and flooding in the North, Suan Dusit Poll reported on Sunday (Aug 3). The poll, conducted by Suan Dusit University, revealed that the index — based on 25 indicators — had declined from 4.13 in June, with almost all indicators showing a decrease. The survey was conducted among 2,171 respondents between 26 and 31 July. The results showed that only one indicator — the government's disclosure of public information — had improved, rising from 4.11 in June to 4.20 in July. Two indicators remained unchanged from the previous month: Overall performance of political parties: 4.20 Overall social situation: 4.08 The top five indicators were: Opposition performance: 4.36 (down from 5.15 in June) People's rights and liberties: 4.34 (4.58 in June) Public education development: 4.33 (4.45 in June) People's inclusion: 4.31 (4.38 in June) Overall performance of political parties: 4.20 (unchanged) Asst Prof Kanyakarn Sathiensukhon of Suan Dusit Poll said several incidents in June had affected public sentiment, including reports of sex scandals involving senior Buddhist monks, the Thai-US trade negotiations, an audio clip of a conversation between Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodian Senate president Hun Sen, Thai-Cambodian border clashes, and flooding in the North. She noted that the indicator measuring the prime minister's performance fell from 3.97 in June to 3.43 in July — the lowest score so far this year — reflecting growing dissatisfaction with both the government's performance and its communication with the public. The survey found the top three government achievements were: 42.21%: Sending explanations to the United States regarding border conflicts 40.51%: Providing support to people along the Thai-Cambodian border 17.28%: Implementing the 20-baht flat fare policy for electric railways The top three performing government politicians were: 44.05%: Varawut Silpa-archa, Minister of Social Development and Human Security 29.85%: Phumtham Wechayachai, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Interior 26.10%: Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Prime Minister - The Nation/ANN
Bangkok Post
02-08-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
US tariff opens 'opportunity' to reorient economy
An economist is urging the government to adopt a three-phase strategy to cushion the impact of the newly-imposed 19% US tariff, warning that while the immediate effect may not be catastrophic, the move exposes deeper structural vulnerabilities. Asst Prof Kiatanantha Lounkaew, of Thammasat University's Faculty of Economics, said on Saturday the tariff, which came into effect on Friday, should not only be seen as a threat but as an opportunity to reorient the economy for long-term resilience. He proposed a phased response to mitigate shocks and drive structural reform. In the short term (0–6 months), he recommended a relief fund be set up by the Finance Ministry and Board of Investment to offer low-interest loans and liquidity support to affected exporters, particularly SMEs. Temporary tax relief and tariff cuts on essential raw materials should also be considered, along with aggressive market diversification into regions such as India, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, he said. The medium-term plan (6–18 months) should focus on restructuring supply chains, reducing foreign dependency and promoting industries aligned with sustainability goals, he said. New investment incentives must align with global standards like ESG criteria and carbon border taxes, he added. He also stressed the need for workforce upskilling and the integration of digital tools like AI and big data. In the long run (1.5–5 years), Thailand must shift from being a low-cost manufacturing base to a regional hub for high-value services and innovation, he said. This requires robust investment in R&D, patent development and upstream technologies, he added. Asst Prof Kiatanantha also proposed the formation of a Thai-US economic dialogue platform and active engagement in multilateral forums to avoid future trade frictions.
The Diplomat
01-08-2025
- Business
- The Diplomat
Trump Cuts Tariffs on Cambodia and Thailand to 19% After Border Ceasefire
The U.S. government has nearly halved its threatened tariffs on imports from Thailand and Cambodia, just days after the two nations declared a ceasefire in a conflict over their border. According to an updated schedule of 'reciprocal tariff rates' issued by the White House late yesterday, both nations have seen their tariffs reduced to 19 percent, down from the threatened 36 percent. Beginning on July 24, the two nations fought a fierce five-day border conflict that has killed at least 43 people and displaced more than 300,000 people in both countries. After the outbreak of the conflict, President Donald Trump threatened to block trade deals with them unless they stopped fighting. By Monday, both countries had agreed to a ceasefire, which, despite mutual claims of violations, continues to hold. While many were reduced considerably from the tariffs unveiled in Trump's 'liberation day' announcement in April, Politico notes that it has lifted U.S. tariffs to 'the highest amount in more than a century.' The new rates come in on August 7. According to the text of an executive order announcing the new rates, the tariffs are intended to address 'the continued lack of reciprocity in our bilateral trade relationships and the impact of foreign trading partners' disparate tariff rates and non-tariff barriers on U.S. exports, the domestic manufacturing base, critical supply chains, and the defense industrial base.' The Thai and Cambodian tariffs were announced along with updated rates for 65 other countries, which included tariffs of 40 percent for Laos and Myanmar, 25 percent for Brunei, and 19 percent for Malaysia. It also confirmed the rates that Trump announced with Vietnam (20 percent), Indonesia (19 percent), and the Philippines (19 percent). Singapore and Timor-Leste are the only Southeast Asian nations to be hit just with the administration's baseline 10 percent tariff, a reflection of the fact that the U.S. enjoys trade surpluses with both. Thailand and Cambodia both responded positively to the tariff reduction. In a Facebook post, Deputy PM and Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said that the tariff reduction 'reflects strong Thai-US friendship and keeps Thailand globally competitive while boosting investor confidence and creating new economic opportunities.' He added that the Thai government was preparing 'budget allocations, soft loans, subsidies, tax measures, and regulatory reforms' to help those affected by the tariff. The reduction has also been praised by Cambodia's government. 'This is a good news for the citizens and economy of Cambodia to continue developing the country,' Prime Minister Hun Manet said in a Facebook post today. Phnom Penh has reasons to be satisfied with the outcome. Over the past decade, policymakers in Washington have grown alarmed with Cambodia's increasing economic and security relations with China, particularly with Beijing's refurbishment of (and likely preferential access to) the Ream Naval Base, the first phase of which was inaugurated earlier this year. These U.S. concerns might have been expected to hamper Phnom Penh's ability to negotiate its tariff down from the hefty 49 percent tariff initially announced in April, threatening to push it into the same category as Laos, another close partner of Beijing. As the Southeast Asian nation most exposed to the U.S. market, which took 37 percent of its exports in 2023, this hefty rate threatened to wreck Cambodia's manufacturing sector and potentially cast tens of thousands out of work. Cambodian policymakers will be relieved that they avoided this outcome. Indeed, the fact that such a close Chinese partner was able to obtain the same rate as Thailand, a U.S. treaty ally, speaks partly to the incoherence of the Trump administration's trade policies. It also probably reflects the canny way in which Cambodian leaders have leveraged the recent border conflict to their advantage. In the wake of Monday's ceasefire, Cambodian leaders, including former Prime Minister Hun Sen, went out of their way to praise Trump for his intercession in the border conflict with Thailand. After its announcement, Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and chief trade negotiator Sun Chanthol said that Trump should be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in facilitating the ceasefire with Thailand – a position that has since been echoed online and in regime-aligned media. U.S.-Cambodia relations, which touched a nadir during the first Trump term, are being rebuilt on a bedrock of flattery. Malaysia would also be relatively satisfied with the 19 percent tariff, which marks a reduction from the 25 percent announced in a 'tariff letter' sent to the country last month. Yesterday, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim told parliament that the tariff rate 'will ease and not burden our economy.' In fact, eight of Southeast Asia's 11 nations have now secured a tariff rate of 20 percent or lower. Of these, six, which also happen to be among the region's largest exporters, have finalized tariffs of either 19 or 20 percent. This is lower than the 25 percent imposed on India and a nominal total of 79 percent on China (although this is still under negotiation), and higher than the 15 percent imposed on Japan and South Korea. Assuming all of these rates hold, this allows the region to remain relatively competitive in terms of access to the U.S. market, while more or less preserving the current competitive balance between its major exporters. The situation is much worse for Laos and Myanmar, each of which has been slugged with one of the highest tariff rates in the world, despite seeing slight reductions on the 48 percent and 46 percent initially announced by Trump in April. Neither nation trades especially much with the U.S., whose trade with Myanmar totaled $734 million in 2024, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Total trade with Laos came to $844 million. (This compares to the $81 billion in trade that the U.S. conducted with Thailand last year and the $13 billion with Cambodia.) The U.S. was Myanmar's fifth-largest export market in 2022, and Laos' 12th-largest in 2021. Nonetheless, these punitive 40 percent tariffs are set to deepen the economic turmoil in both nations' floundering export-oriented manufacturing sectors, and deepen their already considerable economic connections to China. Exactly why Laos and Myanmar have been subject to such higher duties remains unclear, given the lack of clarity in the Trump administration's trade policy. It could be that neither nation showed what the Trump team considered to be sufficient eagerness to conclude a trade deal prior to the deadline; most of the Southeast Asian nations that successfully negotiated down their tariffs pledged to make large purchases of U.S. goods, including energy, agricultural products, and Boeing aircraft. It could also reflect the extent of their relations with China, or a combination of both. In any event, there is no guarantee that any of the current rates will be stable long enough for investors to begin making significant financial decisions on that basis. The tariffs also supposedly include a tariff of 40 percent for goods that the Trump administration deems to have been transshipped from other nations (i.e. China), although the criteria by which these decisions will be made remain unclear. While Trump has successfully used Washington's economic power to extract economic concessions from its main trade partners, the longer-term impact of the tariff war will likely be detrimental to U.S. economic influence. As my colleague James Guild wrote earlier this week, of the U.S. deals with Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, Trump's use of American leverage 'will almost certainly drive countries in the region away from America and toward other trade and development partners in Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere.'
Bangkok Post
21-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Recalibrating Thai-US ties (once again)
It is about time for Thailand to discard the two-century-old euphemism about enduring Thai-US ties and be brutally realistic. It is about time for a blunt question -- what can Thailand offer to reduce its soaring trade surplus of US$43 billion with the US? If Thai negotiators don't come up with any interesting offers, then the tariff for exported goods from Thailand to the US will be 36% across the board after Aug 1. Currently, negotiations between Washington and the government are progressing. The outcome, expected next month, will have far-reaching impacts beyond trade and the economy. The deal will directly affect the stability of this weak government. From a broader perspective, the tariff figure will serve as a barometer of future Thai-US relations in this era of geopolitical turbulence. It is worth noting that Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira has instructed related ministries to prepare the Thai agricultural and industrial sectors for the impact of US tariffs, but he has yet to explain why and how. Mr Pichai was quoted as saying that local industry has to upgrade and realign itself with global trends and become more competitive. Mr Pichai revealed that the US plans to require a local content requirement in products sold in the US of as much as 80% to prevent transhipped goods from entering its market under false rules of origin. He reiterated that Thailand must proactively negotiate to protect mutual and sustainable interests, while urgently addressing three key issues. First, Thailand must present concrete and enforceable measures to reduce the trade surplus. Secondly, the country needs to provide broader market access to US goods. Third, Thailand needs to remove non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Among Asean members, Thailand has the toughest sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and other regulatory frameworks intended to protect consumers, agriculture and the environment. Under the Trump administration, the US is pursuing a unilateral approach under what it calls "US preferential treatment". If countries refuse the terms, they may face steep tariffs and other retaliatory measures. Mr Pichai also admitted that a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) is already in place, limiting the release of some information pertaining to the deals. Amid the secrecy, the finance minister assured the public that negotiations are guided by long-term shared benefits and regional balance. He did not elaborate how. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs are indeed perceived as a plan to rein in the ripple effect of the China Plus One supply chain model. China Plus One is a supply chain diversification strategy that emerged in 2014 and 2015 due to the escalating cost of labour in China, leading multinational companies to seek alternative manufacturing and sourcing options in other Asian countries. Throughout the Biden administration, the so-called China plus one formula has been beneficial to key Asean members such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia, where investors opened their factories after pulling out from China. With Mr Trump's team in charge, Mr Pichai admitted that transhipment, where products are rerouted through third countries to evade tariffs, is the most difficult as it is closely linked to local content rules. Previously, the transhipment threshold was only 40 per cent, but this could rise to 60-80%, forcing countries to redefine what counts as actually Made-in-Thailand materials. According to Mr Pichai, countries with low levels of local manufacturing, such as those with production bases just starting up, will be hardest hit regardless of the tariff rate. For instance, Vietnam, which has low local content, is facing high transhipment tariffs. In the case of Thailand, the country could also suffer due to the downturn in authentic local manufacturers and the influx of investment and transhipments from China. In short, despite Thailand's export volume surging, the share of local manufacturing production in exports remains unchanged. The real challenge for Thai industry is to boost its local capacity and improve the level of local content. If not, Thai exporters will face higher tariffs on transhipped goods. Mr Pichai admitted that the US wants Thailand to open its market and remove NTBs on agricultural products and meat, especially pork and offal. One new feature in the negotiations is in the energy sector. Thailand has offered to purchase natural gas and shale oil from the US, which have a lower price than on the global market. In this respect, Thailand is also considering more energy-related investments in the US. Mr Pichai defended Thailand's offer of zero tariffs for certain US products, as other countries, including China, have already been given the same privileges under existing FTAs. Many Thai exports under existing FTAs are not competitive or undersupplied domestically. "This offer is not being made to just any country-- it is unique to the US," he said, adding the deal could empower farmers and boost Thailand's competitiveness, serving as a platform for national reform. Once the tariff debacle has been concluded, it should be Thailand's turn to renegotiate its strategic relationship with the US. In the post-Cold War era, the US has benefited tremendously from Thailand's strategic values and locations. As an ally, Thailand has hosted the Cobra Gold military exercises nonstop for 44 consecutive years. It remains one of the largest multinational training operations in the world, especially for the American armed forces. More than the US Indo-Pacific Command would like to admit, this annual exercise provides the opportunity for the US to simulate "command and control" operations involving over 30 participating nations. It also promotes interoperability of foreign troops, whose countries procured American weapons. On paper, Cobra Gold positions Thailand as a central node in regional security. But in reality, Thailand has only benefited marginally. It is time to push for a new arrangement that aligns with the country's security needs. At the very least, there should be more Thai-led planning and command roles. Thailand has been a non-Nato treaty ally since 2003, without consequential benefits. The country does not enjoy defence guarantees, robust arms transfers or significant technology sharing. The US side often complains that Thailand is too close to China, which it has denied. Deep down, Washington does not trust Bangkok's alliance. Some glaring evidence is the Royal Thai Air Force's need to purchase Swedish Gripen jets, after the US refused to sell F-35 jet fighters, citing concerns about Thailand's ability to handle such advanced aircraft and its relationship with China. President Trump's new term is a different game. In engaging with Mr Trump, Thailand must be more assertive in demanding greater technological sharing, joint capability building, and access to US strategic platforms. For instance, Thailand should have been a recipient of US space technology and cyber surveillance, which are not forthcoming. The US halted its international military education and training program for Thailand a decade ago. The programme used to be a primer for the person-to-person network among the Thai-US top brass. Now, this bilateral link is waning. In future Thai-US strategic meetings, Thailand must not be shy or submissive. The US has been pressing the rest of the world for its own economic stability at the peril of allies and friends, and Thailand has a track record of yielding to US demands on defence and even made economic concessions. Now it is time for a new red line and a new game for Thailand to redefine its security cooperation with the US, aligning the ties with Thailand's strategic autonomy. Perhaps, the next question is what the Trump administration wants from security engagement with Thailand.
