Latest news with #TheBearTrapsReport
CNBC
2 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Stocks are celebrating inflation's demise prematurely and the big money isn't buying, says Larry McDonald
(PRO Views are exclusive to PRO subscribers, giving them insight on the news of the day direct from a real investing pro.) The stock market and retail investors are celebrating an end to inflation worries prematurely on Tuesday, and the big money is not playing along, according to Larry McDonald of "The Bear Traps Report" — whose clients are some of the biggest hedge funds on the planet. There already was something off with the way financial markets were reacting to the July CPI report with the 10-year Treasury yield going higher after the numbers, while the Dow Jones Industrial average is rallying . Big institutional money on Wall Street is siding with the bond market and believes that inside of the CPI report were the signs of a growing comeback in inflation. They are looking at what's called "supercore" inflation, which removes food and energy, but also shelter and rent costs from the headline number. When that's taken out, inflation was running at a 3.21% rate last month, much higher than the 2.7% headline annual rate that was slightly less that economists expected and sparked the equity rally. "This could be like a nice relief rally today, but under the surface, inflation is just not coming down fast enough and that's not great for bonds," said McDonald, author of " How To Listen When Markets Speak. " Supercore "is one of the most important number's the Fed looks at. ... The bond market is really focused on supercore and you can't fake that," he said. This hidden inflation that's about to rear its head is "good for hard assets, good for gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper," said McDonald. Big hedge funds are buying anything that comes out of the ground Tuesday, along with natural gas, he said. "The cheapest part of the market right now is natural gas," McDonald added, noting its key part in powering AI data centers. The investor and strategist pointed to the First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) along with Antero Resources as ways to play along with the big money. (Watch the video above for the full conversation.)
Business Insider
11-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Markets guru Larry McDonald warns of 'off the charts' complacency — and says Warren Buffett's stock sales are a red flag
Investors are too relaxed about falling inflation and booming stocks, while Warren Buffett may be sending a distress signal about the banks. That's according to former trader and author Larry McDonald, who told Business Insider in an interview that investor "complacency is off the charts." The author of "The Bear Traps Report" newsletter and the former head of US macro strategy at Société Générale said he expected surging microchip stocks to experience a "sharp snapback in the next two to three weeks." Nvidia rocketed nearly 70% in under three months to an unprecedented $4 trillion valuation, while rival Taiwan Semiconductor has soared around 60% to fresh highs over the same period, helping to lift the wider stock market to record levels. Banking and Buffett McDonald said banks were threatened by having on their books commercial real estate loans and multifamily mortgages that were issued at far lower interest rates than such loans would be now and are now worth much less on paper. These have left key lenders such as superregional banks " dramatically wounded," McDonald said. He suggested that some investors were turning a blind eye and focusing instead on the Trump administration's promises of deregulation. This has left bank stocks trading at valuations that are "extremely unusual historically," McDonald said. McDonald, who wrote "A Colossal Failure of Common Sense" about the collapse of Lehman Brothers, pointed to Buffett slashing his stake in Bank of America, which for years had been the legendary investor's second-largest holding after Apple. The Berkshire Hathaway CEO pared his position by almost 40% from over 1 billion shares to around 630 million in the nine months ended March 31. "He sees something," McDonald said. He speculated that Buffett, who's soured on lenders and exited several bank bets since 2020, is "probably selling a lot more now" and may have already cut the position to 500 million shares. Berkshire did not respond to a request for comment from BI, and investors will have to wait until Berkshire files its next portfolio update in mid-August to find out its latest BoA position. Buffett was lauded online earlier this year for selling more than $130 billion in stocks in 2024 and building a record cash pile before the market entered a correction. Prices and pressures Headline inflation was 2.4% in May, only slightly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but McDonald disputed the idea it's under control. 'The Trump team wants to advertise low inflation because they see a window to cut," he said, referring to the president's campaign to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell to reduce interest rates. McDonald said rising prices for copper and other commodities could reignite inflation, and 'either tariffs or oil will start leaking' into it too, driving up bond yields in anticipation of the Fed raising rates and worsening banks' paper losses. He said that resurgent inflation could disproportionately harm the bottom 60% of Americans by income, pinching their pocketbooks like in the 1970s when consumers were "so wounded." McDonald also said credit-card companies charging interest rates as high as 29% are further squeezing households' finances, raising the risk of wider economic pain. McDonald has repeatedly warned of market crashes, recessions, and inflation in recent years, but stocks have marched to record highs and the economy has remained strong. Investors may be shrugging off genuine threats, but that bullishness has paid off so far.
CNBC
21-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
How the stablecoin bill gives Treasury Secretary Bessent a new tool to fund the U.S. deficit
The crypto industry is on the verge of a major regulatory milestone, and it could lead to digital assets being a significant source of funding for the U.S. government. On Tuesday, the Senate passed the GENIUS Act , which lays out a regulatory framework for stablecoins, sending it on to the House of Representatives with bipartisan support. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent praised the bill in a post on X , saying that a regulated and growing stablecoin market could create new buyers for U.S. government debt. "A thriving stablecoin ecosystem will drive demand from the private sector for US Treasuries, which back stablecoins. This newfound demand could lower government borrowing costs and help rein in the national debt. It could also onramp millions of new users — across the globe — to the dollar-based digital asset economy," Bessent said. "It's a win-win-win for everyone involved" The exact size the stablecoin market can reach in the future is unclear, but it does appear that the U.S. government will have plenty of debt to sell to it. The Congressional Budget Office's dynamic score — which takes into account the legislation's potential changes to factors like economic growth — said the tax and spending bill that recently passed the House would increase the total deficit by $3.4 trillion from 2025 to 2034, including interest costs. The current size of the U.S. dollar-denominated stablecoin market is around $230 billion to $250 billion, according to Robbert van Batenburg, strategist at The Bear Traps Report, and there is a theory that a clearer regulatory framework can help lead to wider adoption. Several major tech and consumer companies are reportedly exploring issuing their own stablecoins or using existing coins more frequently. Bessent previously told the House Financial Services Committee in May that there is "speculation" the stablecoin market could be "up to $2 trillion of demand over the next few years for U.S. government securities from digital assets." The market could in theory surpass that $2 trillion figure if stablecoins start to take market share from traditional credit card payment networks, van Batenburg said. The stablecoin bill also comes at a time when Wall Street has started to fret about foreign investors and governments turning away from U.S. assets. Katie Haun, founder and CEO of Haun Ventures and former Coinbase board member, said Friday on " Squawk Box " that the stablecoin industry is already 14th largest holder in the world of U.S. Treasurys, ahead of nations like Germany and Norway, and that the new legislation should help it continue to grow. "I've been asking for regulatory clarity and more rules of the road, and I think the GENIUS Act is exactly that," Haun said. How stablecoins work Stablecoins are a type of digital currency that is often used to facilitate crypto trading but can also work for other types of transactions. They are designed to be "stable" at a set value. Some stablecoins have drawn scrutiny in the past over concerns that their reserves were insufficient or relied on mechanisms that would unreliable in times of market stress. The Senate bill calls for stablecoins to be backed on at least a 1-to-1 basis by highly liquid assets, including U.S. currency, U.S. Treasury bills, repurchase agreements — or "repos" — backed by Treasury securities, government money market funds and central bank reserve deposits. An example of a stablecoin's reserves can be found in the disclosures from Circle , which went public earlier this month and has seen its stock soar . CRCL 1M mountain Shares of Circle have soared since the IPO. Circle's IPO prospectus shows that the vast majority of its stablecoin reserves are held in a BlackRock vehicle called the Circle Reserve Fund . That fund's holdings are split roughly 50-50 between short-term U.S. Treasury Debt and Treasury repurchase agreements. If the GENIUS Act is enacted as currently written, stablecoin companies will be required to certify they have these holdings on a monthly basis, with the oversight of registered public accounting companies. Risks A growing stablecoin industry in the U.S. is not likely to completely fix the government's debt funding problem, and it could introduce additional risks. Nonprofit group Better Markets opposes the GENIUS Act, and its policy director Amanda Fischer said in a statement that the bill ignores "the susceptibility of stablecoin companies to runs, bankruptcies, and taxpayer-funded bailouts." Counting on the industry as a funding source for the Treasury market could also be tricky. Lawrence McDonald, founder of the Bear Traps Report, cautioned that additional demand from stablecoins will take time to develop while the U.S. Treasury will likely need to issue significant amounts of debt securities over the next year. McDonald also said that, while interest costs of short-term debt are cheaper than that of 30-year Treasurys, relying so heavily on the short-end of the bond market can be a problem for countries. "If something ever went wrong, in terms of say oil, and that prevented the [Federal Reserve] from cutting, then you're going to have a high bill rate for a long-time and the deficit is going to spiral out of control," McDonald said.
CNBC
10-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Buy hard assets like gold ahead of a potential bond market panic, says Bear Traps' Larry McDonald
The potential issuance of more than $1 trillion in new government debt could make commodities a smarter defensive plays than bonds, according to "The Bear Traps Report" founder Larry McDonald. McDonald estimated that in the six months from September 1 through about February the U.S. is looking at about $1.5 trillion of new debt issuance from government. That would amount to about $600 billion more than last year, McDonald said, and the issue could be exacerbated by any delay in the tax-and-spending bill that recently passed the House of Representatives. The idea is that the large new issuances of bonds, and the forecasts for a continuing annual deficit of the federal government, would put more pressure on a bond market that has already seen volatile moves in yields so far this year. "We think $4 to $6 trillion is going to move from financial assets — which are just paper certificates, right, stock certificates, bonds — over to hard assets," McDonald said on " Squawk Box ." Those hard assets could be precious metals, like gold, silver and platinum, which have already performed well in 2025. McDonald also said that agricultural commodities could be an area to watch. "The old 60/40 portfolio should maybe be 30/30/30/10, in other words a much larger component of commodities," where the 30% slices are bonds, stocks and the commodities and the 10% piece is cash, he added. @GC.1 YTD mountain Gold futures YTD It can be difficult for individual investors to gain large exposure to hard assets directly, but there are many ETFs on the market that buy and hold commodities or commodity futures. For example, the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) has about $860 million in assets under management, and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has about $100 billion in assets. To be sure, McDonald did not predict that a bond market panic will necessarily happen within the next 12 months. He said that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been making moves to help the bond market. One of those is a potential change the supplementary leverage ratio, expected this summer, which would allow banks to hold more government debt on their balance sheets. McDonald is also the author of the new book "How to Listen When Markets Speak."
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The bond market is headed for a crisis
You can catch Opening Bid on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. While a lot of attention has been focused on the volatile stock market, investing pros say it's time to shift more focus to the bond market. Indeed the market is undergoing its own major convulsions amid Trump tariff concerns, which is rattling many investors around the world. Of note is that as stock prices have sold off, bond prices have sold off too. That despite Treasurys often being viewed as a place of safety during stock market turbulence. The moves in the bond market are sending signals that the US may have trouble paying its future debts and could fall into a recession soon. Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi sits down with bond market expert and founder of The Bear Traps Report Lawrence McDonald to get his thoughts on the high-stakes situation. McDonald says a Lehman Brothers-like moment may be coming to markets. He adds there are other ways to invest in Nvidia (NVDA) besides investing in Nvidia, suggesting metals stocks or the hard assets themselves. For full episodes of Opening Bid, listen on your favorite podcast platform or watch on our website. Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid is produced by Langston Sessoms Welcome to a new episode of Opening bid. I'm Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sai. Like I always say, this is the podcast that will make you a smarter investor, period. Let's put up one minute on the clock, our shot clock, uh, stock of the day going Best Buy on this news that President Trump or the Trump administration will exempt smartphones, computers, and certain electronics from those China there was just this massive relief. Suddenly companies like Apple are going to do amazingly in terms of financials, but when you dig beneath the results, the 20% tariff is still in place here. So I want to lock in on Best Buy because when I originally heard this news, I'm like, right, Best Buy is years gonna be saved. This is great, rah rah. Best Buy, no, that's not the case. And here are some numbers here from the folks at the 20% China tariff is still in place. That means a lot of products that Best Buy sells smartphones, electronics, computers will still be hit by that tariff. City estimating Best Buy could see a 15% product cost inflation hit, almost 1000 basis point hit to gross profit margins this year because of that 20% tariff, assuming there's no mitigating factors. To me that spells not a good season for a company like Best Buy and I'm out of time. That's all I got on Best Buy. All right, let's, uh, continue to drill, drill into markets here. Special guest Larry McDonald, author, the bear traps report founder, good to see you in person. I know you're you're traveling the world, so good to see you in Times Square at the NASDAQ. Yeah, it's been a good run. I mean, the book, our book came out and the main thesis of the book How to Listen to Market Speak. Great book this, world that drives a colossal migration of capital and that's what kind of played out last week. You were the, you were thebond guy and holy cow, we have seen some major moves in the bond market. The 10 year up to 4.5%. I thought when stocks sold off you go into treasuries, but that's not working. Why? OK, for the last 40 years, you're right, whenever we go risk off, so down in stocks, bonds have gone it has a lot to do with the flight equality, United States of America and trust, and there's two elements of trust that are broken. Let's Congress broke the back of the trust around the debt, so $37 trillion of debt, but that's up 11 trillion in the last 4 years, right? So and global investors were already a little sick to their stomach of, you know, with the United States and that amount of debt, but then Trump came along with a sledgehammer and said we're gonna change the world order on trade, right?So if you're a European investor for the last like 30 years you've just loved the United States, love the United States most of the time. Now when I spoke last week to European investors, they're losing money on their stocks, they're losing money on their bonds and the foreign exchange. So if you own US stocks uh, in any kind of euro or any kind of currency in Europe, uh, you're losing money on the currency as well, so they're not happy clients now, and so what that's doing is it takes imagine a whitewater river of incoming cash coming into the United States just violently reversing and going the other way. That's what's happening. What'sthe, what's the signal that the bond market is sending you? Uh, just signaling, uh, a lack of trust in the sense that that world order that we've had is, is changing first of all, and what we make the point in the book how to listen to market speak is this great migration of capital. If there's that much uncertainty in bonds, which for the bedrock, then we should see capital move from financial assets which are financial assets all it means is paper certificates, bonds and stocks. It's we should move over toward hard assets which we just kind of see over the last year. Silver is outperforming the NASDAQ. Gold's outperforming the Nasdaq by like 30, 30%, and that's not the normhere. I mean, investors have been trained the past 10 years. Stocks like Nvidia and Apple go up in a straight line and maybe on like 2% of your portfolio ingold or maybe 1%. Newmont Mining up $15 last week, and this is the stock that Buffett bought years ago, Buffett's uh, yeah, it's not like we're, that's all that's not the only place to be, but companies that own assets in the ground, whether it be natural gas, whether it be, uh, platinum palladium, I mean there's so many, there's so many metals that are strategic for just this whole AI revolution.I mean, I think we're gonna have a copper crisis in 2026-2027 where the amount of copper needed for the Ukraine rebuild, right, for the Gaza rebuild for artificial intelligence, for robotics, supposedly all these robots are gonna replace human all need metal. They all need copper and and strategic metals, and that's where the real moneys can be made. The old portfolio was your 60/40 stock bonds belong a lot of growth stocks. That was like 2010 to 2020 portfolio. That's new portfolio that we line up in the book is a portfolio of kind of harder harder harder hard asset companies. Ifis the bond market suggesting that the bond market losing trust in the US credit worthiness and how big a deal isthat? It's enormous now it's, it can be won back um through deficit reduction and through it's people, people forget all tariffs are is taxes, so a tariff is just a tax on global investors. I just got hit with145%tax. Yeah. Now Americans do pay if you wanna if you wanna buy, buy an iPhone, you're gonna pay a higher tax, right? But a the, the thing about tariffs is global companies and global countries are also sharing that tax so we can to get out of this debt hole we can raise taxes on global companies, global investors, US, US citizens, or we can default. I mean, interest on the debt is $1 trillion a year, right? That's 25% of tax receipts, 20% of tax receipts, and the rest, the rest of the developed world is only the rest of the developed world in terms of interest, annual interest cost versus their tax receipts, the rest of the developed worlds like in the 234 to 6% group. I caught a post from you on X. I don't know where you were, but you were breaking down the stress we're seeing in the bond market and you dropped Lehman and you lived and managed. That's the first time I came in contact with your work, uh, during the, the great financial crisis. Are we headed towards another, another, are we headed towards a crisis in the bond market? Yes, uh, they, they're gonna put some fire hoses into this, right? Um, but in terms of the bond markets, real sustainability as a safe days are are starting to just slowly go away and that means that you're gonna own different types of bonds. You're gonna own bonds of other countries, not just the not, it's just everybody was overdosing on the US, right? And all it means is that your global investors are gonna have more diversified portfolio that they they've been burnt by this lack of trust. It's like there's certain things that we've all been through these horrible experiences when you can't unsee something, right? The global investors have just over the head with this huge amount of debt that the United States has, uh, this kind of lack of trust and spending in Congress and then Trump with the sledgehammer on tariffs trying to raise taxes and they're just like, OK.I'm gonna have a basket of bonds and that's what's gonna break that's what's breaking down the bond market. They're just gonna try to own other things besides just being overdosed on growth stocks and and US Treasury. Right, let me see if I can make this through lines. So China, what the second largest holder of treasuries, uh, and they're getting hit with these large the Trump administration, do you envision them dumping treasuries? If so, do they do so aggressively and what are the ramifications of China doing that to theUS economy? See that that's part of the, the, the scare out there is that China doesn't even have to dump, but if they, if they leak that they might dump, uh, then other people try to get in front of that. um, there's also a lot of banks are in this this whole basis trade that's a big problem that's unwinding a lot of hedge funds really that are in this trade and that that's unwinding so it's like a combination of China and people worrying about China and Japan, um, you know what we're in a trade war with them maybe they're not gonna be there to buy our bonds and so there's that worry and then we have this very complicated basis trade that's blowing up and so those those things are happening the exact same at the end of the day what I talked about on on my video is the last 30 years when whenever there was a crash in the stock market when Lehman went down you made $8 trillion investors made they lost $8 trillion of stock value but they made $3.5 trillion back on bonds and when COVID hit, investors lost $9 trillion but they made $4 trillion back on their bonds. Imagine we've lost $9 trillion the last since February 19th $9 trillion and you basically haven't made anything back on the bond side. If you were sitting with the Treasury secretary instead of Brian Sai this morning, what would you want to know from him? Well, first I would want, I would want to have someone like a Scott Pascent that's running the show instead of one day Lutnick the other day Hawks, these real and they're, they're, they're really, uh, they mean well, but they are crushing on world order they're they're basically what we talked about in the book we're in a multi-polar world versus a unipolar world a unipolar world with the United States is like the strong empire and it's kind of leadership and globalization is very stable. A multipolar world is something like where we have Navarro and Lutnick out there really threatening our our allies and our trading partners and that kind of driving money out of the United States. So if I was the, I'd want to have him. I'd, I'd want to be taking that wheel away from Navarro and Lutnick, yeah, especially, yeah, they, they really say some, uh, shocking things. Hang with us, uh, Larry. We're gonna go off for a quick break. We're gonna be right back on opening bid talking more on bonds, stock market, and of course the economic outlook. We'll be right right, welcome back to Opening bid here. We're having a great chat here with Larry McDonald, the bear traps, uh, the bear traps report founder, also, uh, author of How to Listen when Markets Speak, encourage everyone to give this one a read, really, really good book. So we were talking about the Treasury Secretary, uh, Scott Besson. He's.I feel like his focus on tariffs is distracting him from some of the bigger things he wants to do, cut the deficit. Is that just not gonna get done in this? So let's go really quick. When Lehman failed, right, the fiscal and monetary response, the fiscal and monetary was $4 trillion when COVID went down in 2020 and then you had the regional bank crisis after that and then the elections or fiscal spending in Washington was crazy into the response was not $4 trillion it was $16 trillion. So think of Lehman 4 versus 16. Now Becent is Treasury secretary. He's gonna sell bonds to the world to finance this huge building bond salesman, chief bond salesman, exactly, and um it's harder to sell bonds and um fortunately what they've tried to they tried to Yellen in the last year and a half, 2 years, former Treasury, yeah, former, former Tre she she issued tons and tons of T- bills so mentioned like borrowing money for like 6 months, 1 year, and she brilliantly placed bond in the election year. She'd actually by doing all because T- Bills mature in 3 months, right? 6 months, so those bonds can't move in price, right? So she pushed all that that bond issuance out into 2025, 2026. So she placed bond volatility brilliantly in the hands of the Republicans. So what happens though? What, what, what's the response? What does he, what's going to happen to the bond market laterthis year? He has to go sell these bonds and, and to a more with Navarro and Lutnick trying to like, you know, they, he's in the worst possible spot. And so, yeah, so he's gonna try to calm things down. And you know, at the end of the day, they're trying to repair 40 years of dysfunction in a very, very short period of time in 4 years, and they're trying to take as much pain away from the mid they wanna take the pain as far away from the midterms as possible, right? I, you have a real global view. I mean, you're constantly on the road and and traveling. What is the, how did your international clients view what is happening in the US, but then by extension how they view what's happening to them. So, so we run a, uh, we run a Bloomberg chat and a private discord room with institutional investors in 30 countries. The bear trap support is the company, but most of our revenue is from a lot, at least 50% is from hedge funds, mutual funds, and pension funds around the world. And yeah, the, the trust that's been broken the last, you know, imagine you're a bond investor and you just watch the US jack up the borrow a lot of money in the front part of the curve which is makes us look a little bit like an emerging market country and then come out with a way to fund it through pounding taxation around the world to other countries. It's, it just creates this like lack of trust. I talked to a guy in Zurich yesterday and he's like runs billions of dollars and he's like Larry, all we had to do the last 30 years is just sit back over allocate to the United States. So you mentioned all these allocators, that's all they've done is over allocate, over allocate into US stocks and bonds and so they're up to here in terms of the allocation and now they just have to take it down back to where we were maybe 10 years ago, but that' at least 1 trillion bucks. What arethey waiting for to put money back into into the US stock market? What do they need to see? And do they have trust? Anything that they want to see might actually happen with this administration. Like he said, he said to me, you know, there's certain things you can't unsee and with these trends around currencies and bonds and stocks, especially currencies and bonds, when those trends go this way, they, they would need to see Congress take total taxation away from the White House and have that guaranteed for at least a year and so the White House means well they're trying to undo 40 years of dysfunction where we've lost we've lost 5 million jobs. Let's not kid ourselves. The reason why Trump was elected twice pretty much is the manufacturing base of the United States has been absolutely hollowed out trying to fix that, but the way they're going about it and the rate of change that they're trying to go about it is very fast and very shocking. And so to your point is what's gonna, what's where's the fire hose that's gonna put this out? I guess if Congress were to take taxation and tariff authority away from the White House and stabilize it and give, give the global investment community a 1 or 2 year certainty of where we would be on would, that would do that would go a long way, but that's just not gonna happen and you mentioned manufacturing and a lot of CEOs that I talked to, they tell me a couple of things. First, I can't build a plant overnight, right? And then two, if I do build that plant opens 5 years from now, it's gonna cost me more to make stuff in the US. And then I look back that Apple CEO Tim Cook has said, he says in 2015, I think he did an interview on CBS calling out uh a lack of skills in the US to do this. Are we just, do we want a $33,500 iPhone? Is that what we're lookingfor here? That's the problem. It's when you, when you, when you decimate the United States working class for 30, 40 years, you're Republicans, Democrats trying to fix that, it's gonna take a long time, and Trump, they wanna sell us that it's that they can fix this. But yeah, if you're Apple or any company that thing that one thing that makes the most sense is just giving golden visas to the most talented technicians and semiconductors because that's the one area where I think the Trump team is 100% right, national security, artificial intelligence, right? You can't have all theseships made by Taiwan it's absolute insanity. It's literally a recipe for.A massive shock. I mean, bigger than Lehman, right, if, if Taiwan were to be invaded, so what we should be doing is giving golden vis visas immediate access for, you know, thousands of the best technicians in the semiconductor space. Get them over to the United States. But like you said, cost of living here is higher. That's all part of our book. What we talk about is when you you're just gonna raise the cost of everything and we're gonna go into a higher interest rate, um, higher bond yield, higher inflation regime that's gonna last very similar we went from like 1968 to 1981 after the Vietnam War and all of a sudden if, if you're in that higher interest rate, higher inflation regime because of reshoring and because of wars and global conflicts, then you need a whole new portfolio that's why I reach out to us at the bear trap support because that's what we're all about. It's like, OK, we're looking like what is the portfolio for, you know, the next 10 years, not the last 10 years. I think if you look at American investors, there's still, there's still like table max, the 2010, 2020 portfolio. Maybe you seeit, but I, I'm listening to everything you're saying. Uh, I stack it up against the things that I see and hear. I don't see the catalyst to get into markets here. I'm not picking stocks. It's not what I, I the appetite to jump in here and buy Nvidia offize? OK, so within the last week, Nvidia, both Exxon and Chevron were combined. Exxon and Chevron were only 29% of Nvidia's market the entire copper industry, copper, like your free ports and all these just look at the CLPX ETF. If you add up the value of all those companies, it's a fraction of Nvidia. But if you really, really, really listen to Jensen and the Nvidia gods, um, the only way they get to their growth trajectory that's needed to justify that close to a $3 trillion dollar evaluation, the only way you get there is with a lot more copper, you look at the copper names or the oil names, they're down 30%, sometimes 25-30% off the highs and the future looks great for them because the valuation set up is so skewed just Nvidia is up here and the entire copper industry here. Nvidia is here, the entire uranium industry for all the nuclear power they're gonna need to fund to find enough finance to power all this, all these new AI data centers, right? So it's so skewed so you can make a lot of money by investing in the power infrastructure plays, uh, your SMRs, your, there's a lot of ETFs that that are in the space you are and M right where you're investing in a basket of are going to power AI for the next 30years. Uh, I wanna get your hot take. It's what we do, uh, towards the end of the podcast. You mentioned, uh, the portfolio for the next 10 years. What is that portfolio because I imagine the next 210 years are gonna look a lot different because of these tariffs and how unsettling things have been. OK, so let's go back to basics. Last 30 years was 60/40 stocks bonds, and out of that 60, there was a lot of growth stocks in there, right? Your fangs and just big, big growth stocks. We're probably moving to a 30, 30, 40 world, so 30% commodities, 30% bonds, uh, it depends on the age of the investor and say 40% stocks, um, in that world, on the, you wanna have less growth and more why the COW, uh, I think it's COWZ ETF, those types of stocks are outperforming global value, the EWU ETF. Just look at, just look at the holdings of the EWU. It's a group of global companies, your Glencores, you know, your, your BHPs, I'm your Rios, your Rio Tintos, and so your companies that own assets in the ground, your companies that own lots of copper reserves, right? FCX's of the world, you wanna look at the, the COPX, that's the portfolio. So it's you're going from 6040 stocks bonds to 30, 30, 40 and out of that stock port should have more more value and more companies that own hard assets like the COPX like the GDX like the SIL like the URNM, these are all ETFs that own baskets of companies that are in the AI infrastructure that are also in the robotic space in in terms of, um, supporting the, the robotics industry through copper and then the United States rebuild of Los Angeles, the rebuild of the Ukraine, the rebuild of our of our power grid in the United States, that's all copper, right? How much copper are we gonna need to rebuild Los Angeles, the Ukraine, and the US support all that artificial intelligence, it's a ton of copper, and so you wanna belong those copper names and that's where you're gonna get, you're gonna get far better portfolio construction and returns by owning the copper names than owning Nvidia lookingforward. Great insights as always. That's why we always have you on here, Larry McDonald, the bear traps report founder and of course the author of How to Listen when Mark at Speed, give this, uh, book a read. Really good stuff. Larry puts all his you see on camera here right into this book. Good to see you. Thanks, Brian. All right, good to see you, man. Good to see you. All right, that's it for the latest episode of Opening Bid. Continue to hit us with all those stars on all the podcast platforms and thumbs up on YouTube. Love your feedback. Always try to answer your questions. Keep it coming. We'll talk to you soon.
