Latest news with #TheBuffaloArchitect
Yahoo
05-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
‘So Bad It's Good': Buying Window Opens for Battered Small Caps
(Bloomberg) -- The smallest US stocks have entered a historically favorable time of year, boosting hopes that the beleaguered group can rebound after a dismal start to 2025. ICE Moves to DNA-Test Families Targeted for Deportation with New Contract The Global Struggle to Build Safer Cars NYC Residents Want Safer Streets, Cheaper Housing, Survey Says The Buffalo Architect Fighting for Women in Design Small-cap stocks have outpaced their bigger counterparts 60% of the time in June since 1990, according to an analysis from Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel. That seasonality has been even more pronounced when larger stocks are trouncing smaller ones, as they are this year: In those instances, the returns of smaller stocks have bested the larger peers in June every single time. Such a period would be a long-awaited bright spot for small-cap investors, should history repeat. The Russell 2000 Index, a small-cap benchmark, hasn't made a fresh record high since 2021 and has fallen 5.9% year-to-date as uncertainty sparked by President Donald Trump's trade war shocked markets. The S&P 500 has also seen its share of dizzying swings, but is up 1.5% for the year and stands within a few percentage points of February's all-time high. 'It is truly a case of small caps being 'so bad, it's good,' right now,' Emanuel said. 'Buy these stocks for a possible performance-reversion trade in June, and perhaps for longer if macro catalysts such as trade deals materialize.' Small-cap stocks initially benefited from the enthusiasm that gripped markets following Trump's election late last year, as investors bet that the lower taxes and reduced regulation he had promised would help smaller companies. But the administration's focus on tariffs — another key part of Trump's platform — sparked worries that small-cap firms would be more vulnerable to the economic disruptions that a trade war could bring, souring investors on the category in the early months of 2025. Bearish Bets While a rally in some of the market's riskier names has boosted small-cap stocks, positioning data shows that traders remain largely negative on the group. Open interest in bullish call options on the biggest fund tracking the Russell 2000 was hovering near the lowest level since February relative to put options earlier this week, suggesting market participants are bracing for more declines. The measure has become slightly more bullish over the last trading session. Meanwhile, bearish bets against small-caps have been growing. Short interest in dollar terms in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF — which shows how much bearish investors have at risk on their wagers — has risen to the highest level since 2022, according to data from S3 Partners. Still, the buildup of bearish positions also creates the conditions for a squeeze higher, if rising prices or favorable news causes those investors to unwind their bets on small-cap stocks, said Jeff Jacobson, derivatives specialist at 22V Research. 'We have seen these 'consensus' ideas flip very quickly on short notice,' Jacobson said. Signs that the US is reaching constructive agreements with its trading partners and strong economic data could heighten the group's appeal, strategists said. While its still early days, small-cap stocks are so far enjoying a tailwind this month. The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 by over half a percentage point in the first three trading days of June. Technical strategists, who analyze chart patterns to predict where stocks may be headed next, are also seeing constructive signals. The Russell 2000 is near an 'inflection point' at its current level of around 2,100, according to analysts at Piper Sandler. A break could see it rise 19% to 2,500 by mid-August, they wrote on Wednesday. Jacobson, of 22V, also expects a 'decent-sized move higher' in the small-cap index in the short term. 'It is a window of opportunity,' he said. Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert Wants to Donate His Billions—and Walk Again YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Is Elon Musk's Political Capital Spent? Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
05-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
‘So Bad It's Good': Buying Window Opens for Battered Small Caps
(Bloomberg) -- The smallest US stocks have entered a historically favorable time of year, boosting hopes that the beleaguered group can rebound after a dismal start to 2025. ICE Moves to DNA-Test Families Targeted for Deportation with New Contract The Global Struggle to Build Safer Cars NYC Residents Want Safer Streets, Cheaper Housing, Survey Says The Buffalo Architect Fighting for Women in Design Small-cap stocks have outpaced their bigger counterparts 60% of the time in June since 1990, according to an analysis from Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel. That seasonality has been even more pronounced when larger stocks are trouncing smaller ones, as they are this year: In those instances, the returns of smaller stocks have bested the larger peers in June every single time. Such a period would be a long-awaited bright spot for small-cap investors, should history repeat. The Russell 2000 Index, a small-cap benchmark, hasn't made a fresh record high since 2021 and has fallen 5.9% year-to-date as uncertainty sparked by President Donald Trump's trade war shocked markets. The S&P 500 has also seen its share of dizzying swings, but is up 1.5% for the year and stands within a few percentage points of February's all-time high. 'It is truly a case of small caps being 'so bad, it's good,' right now,' Emanuel said. 'Buy these stocks for a possible performance-reversion trade in June, and perhaps for longer if macro catalysts such as trade deals materialize.' Small-cap stocks initially benefited from the enthusiasm that gripped markets following Trump's election late last year, as investors bet that the lower taxes and reduced regulation he had promised would help smaller companies. But the administration's focus on tariffs — another key part of Trump's platform — sparked worries that small-cap firms would be more vulnerable to the economic disruptions that a trade war could bring, souring investors on the category in the early months of 2025. Bearish Bets While a rally in some of the market's riskier names has boosted small-cap stocks, positioning data shows that traders remain largely negative on the group. Open interest in bullish call options on the biggest fund tracking the Russell 2000 was hovering near the lowest level since February relative to put options earlier this week, suggesting market participants are bracing for more declines. The measure has become slightly more bullish over the last trading session. Meanwhile, bearish bets against small-caps have been growing. Short interest in dollar terms in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF — which shows how much bearish investors have at risk on their wagers — has risen to the highest level since 2022, according to data from S3 Partners. Still, the buildup of bearish positions also creates the conditions for a squeeze higher, if rising prices or favorable news causes those investors to unwind their bets on small-cap stocks, said Jeff Jacobson, derivatives specialist at 22V Research. 'We have seen these 'consensus' ideas flip very quickly on short notice,' Jacobson said. Signs that the US is reaching constructive agreements with its trading partners and strong economic data could heighten the group's appeal, strategists said. While its still early days, small-cap stocks are so far enjoying a tailwind this month. The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 by over half a percentage point in the first three trading days of June. Technical strategists, who analyze chart patterns to predict where stocks may be headed next, are also seeing constructive signals. The Russell 2000 is near an 'inflection point' at its current level of around 2,100, according to analysts at Piper Sandler. A break could see it rise 19% to 2,500 by mid-August, they wrote on Wednesday. Jacobson, of 22V, also expects a 'decent-sized move higher' in the small-cap index in the short term. 'It is a window of opportunity,' he said. Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert Wants to Donate His Billions—and Walk Again YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Is Elon Musk's Political Capital Spent? Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
