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Canada Standard
5 days ago
- Science
- Canada Standard
Major Cereal Crops Fall Behind Because of Climate Change, Study Shows
Climate change has already held back global yields of wheat, maize, and barley by as much as 13% over the past 50 years-compared to what they would have been in a world without warming-although Canada may have dodged the worst effects so far, a new Stanford University study finds. The authors revisit the question of how climate change affects agriculture, especially in major production regions. They say their research draws attention to the dramatic shifts farmers are facing, as well as the overall effectiveness of climate models in projecting these shifts. They used 50 years of data comparing actual yields to what climate models predicted. Overall, global yields of wheat, maize, and barley were found to be 10%, 4%, and 13% lower than they would have been without climate change. And while past research has indicated that some climate outcomes might increase crop production, given the higher concentrations of carbon dioxide and longer growing seasons, "losses likely exceeded those benefits," the authors write. View our latest digests That wasn't true across the board. For soybeans and rice, "carbon dioxide benefits likely exceeded climate-related losses." The researchers determined these connections using a regression model that compared yield anomalies with anomalies of weather, explained lead author David Loebell, an earth system science professor at Stanford. This approach allowed the researchers to suggest that the yield losses were caused by climate change-rather than just correlated with them-as long as it is accepted that yield anomalies do not cause weather anomalies and that no unobserved factor is driving both sets of changes. Loebell told The Energy Mix the study deliberately didn't use a trend analysis, which focuses on changes of one variable over time, because there are so many other factors correlated over time with yield and weather. "The regression models are used to isolate the effect of weather on yield," he said. "Then these models can be used to estimate what would have occurred without the trends." Yield losses were mostly in line with what models would have predicted, but with two main exceptions. For one, North American crop production in Canada and the United States was less affected than in other regions of the world, and also less than what models show. The study chalks this up to a "warming hole" that has spared the continent from more significant climate impacts, though researchers are unclear about why the phenomenon exists, or how long it will persist. Secondly, increases in regional vapour pressure deficits (VPD), the difference between the amount of moisture that's actually in the air and the amount of moisture that air could hold at saturation, have been consistently underrepresented in climate models. VPD can be a main driver of stress on plants and high deficits can reduce growth. The findings have implications for both climate research and agriculture adaptation. The revealed yield changes indicate how climate change is likely to affect food production systems. The study also sheds light on how models can be improved, and helps quantify the damage or benefits of historical emissions, supporting efforts to develop financial mechanisms for compensating affected communities. The research also informs breeding and adaptation efforts by tracking "the relative speed with which specific climate stresses are changing, or certain crops or regions are being affected." Source: The Energy Mix
Canada Standard
13-05-2025
- Business
- Canada Standard
Fossil Fuel CEOs Press Ottawa to Ease Climate Rules, Fast-Track Projects
As major fossil fuel companies push the federal government to dismantle key climate policies in the name of economic growth, environmental advocates warn the move would give industry a licence to "pollute without accountability." In late April, CEOs of 38 energy companies signed a letter pitching Prime Minister Mark Carney on policy measures they said would help him fulfill his promise to build the fastest-growing economy in the G7, The Canadian Press reported. They asked [ pdf ] Carney to scrap the emissions cap on oil and gas producers and repeal industrial carbon pricing to help bolster the industry. They also asked for an overhaul of the federal Impact Assessment Act -which sets out the process for assessing major projects-and of the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act , which bans oil tankers carrying more than 12,500 tonnes of crude from stopping along parts of British Columbia's coastline. "Your focus on fostering energy independence and enhancing Canada's energy infrastructure and clean technology requires major sector investment and globally competitive energy and carbon policies," they wrote to Carney. "Over the last decade, the layering and complexity of energy policies has resulted in a lack of investor confidence and, consequently, a barrier to investment." Emilia Belliveau, energy transition program manager at Environmental Defence Canada, told The Energy Mix the letter amounts to a "Trojan horse." "When you read between the lines of their five demands, what it actually is across the board is deregulation and finding new ways to channel subsidies to the industry and to allow them to continue to pollute without accountability." View our latest digests Carney campaigned on expediting reviews of major energy infrastructure projects. He promised before the election to move forward with a "one project, one review" approach by recognizing provincial and territorial assessments. At least one of the CEOs who signed the letter, Enbridge's Greg Ebel, took Carney's comments as a sign that the feds would support a push for more conventional energy infrastructure, like pipelines, reported Yahoo Finance. But policy experts are raising concerns about what may be lost if impact assessments are fast-tracked. Companies might sidestep their obligations to Indigenous communities and to women, gender-diverse people, people with disabilities, and racialized people, they argue. Fast-tracking development could mean falling short on other priorities and legal commitments-a move that will backfire, leading to delays rather than more efficient processes, while worsening inequalities. The CEOs called for reducing regulatory timelines for new projects to a six-month window. Belliveau said that time frame is unrealistic and neglectful, operating on the assumption that projects should go through regardless of their impact. Instead, projects need to be evaluated for their viability, safety, and compliance with Canada's obligation to ensure free, prior and informed consent of Indigenous communities, Belliveau said. Essentially: "What are the environmental and climate consequences, and are they really worth it?" Still, the current process can be improved, Belliveau added, citing the application processes for Indigenous-owned renewable energy companies as an example. Current regulations require that stakeholders meet the requirements of an excessive number of government agencies-a process that is even more cumbersome because the agencies are not always aligned, she told The Mix . But regulatory reform shouldn't be used to "bulldoze through" fossil fuel infrastructure without adequate time for impact assessment, real consultation with Indigenous communities, and information gathering on long-term consequences in a climate crisis. The CEOs also pressed Carney to drop Canada's industrial carbon pricing system, asserting that it produces "uncompetitive costs" compared to other oil producers in the market. "A solution is to revert to the functioning system where provinces administer the policies and pricing to enable emissions-reduction investments, improve emissions performance, and maintain competitiveness." Carney campaigned on strengthening industrial carbon pricing after he scrapped the consumer carbon price. In a release issued Monday after Alberta froze its current industrial carbon price, Canadian Climate Institute Dale Beugin said the current system adds 30 to the price of a barrel of oil. Last November, before Carney became prime minister, the federal government unveiled its proposed emissions cap regulations. They would compel upstream oil and gas operations to reduce emissions to 35% below 2019 levels, but postponed the first compliance period to the years between 2030 and 2032. Carney said he wouldn't be scrapping the regulations-but in March he also told reporters he would prioritize "working with industry and with provinces on specific ways" to reduce emissions "as opposed to having preset caps or preset restrictions on preset timelines." CBC News wrote that Carney's comments seemed to contradict those of newly-appointed environment minister Terry Duguid, who said the emissions cap would stay in place. The CEOs' letter comes at a time when the governments of European countries, which are important trading partners for Canada, are themselves walking back climate measures to prioritize economic competitiveness. Earlier this year, the European Commission proposed legislation that would weaken reporting requirements for many companies' emissions. But Julie Segal, senior program manager of climate finance at Environmental Defence, told the Globe and Mail that Canada lags behind the European Union on climate policy. "All of Canada's closest non-U.S. trade partners are far more advanced on sustainable finance policies- some with taxonomies, almost all with disclosures, almost all with 1.5C-aligned transition plans," Segal said. "If we want to strengthen trade relationships with the European Union, United Kingdom, Australia, and countries across Asia, all of those jurisdictions have stronger sustainable finance policies." Source: The Energy Mix
Canada News.Net
04-05-2025
- Politics
- Canada News.Net
LIVE: Climate and Energy Experts React to Canada's 2025 Election
The Energy Mix 29 Apr 2025, 00:53 GMT+10 The Energy Mix presents live updates from more than 40 journalists and policy experts across the climate and energy community. Starting at 7:30 P.M. ET, join us for real-time reactions to Canada's 2025 election results-and what they mean for the country's energy future, economy, and environment. View our latest digests Source: The Energy Mix Share article: a daily newsletter full of things to discuss over the great thing is that it's on the house!
Canada Standard
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Canada Standard
Climate and Energy Experts React to Canada's 2025 Election
The Energy Mix presents live updates from more than 30 journalists and policy experts across the climate and energy community. Join us for real-time reactions to Canada's 2025 election results-and what they mean for the country's energy future, economy, and environment. 1:22 AM After a seven-year run, Jagmeet Singh said he'll be stepping down as leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP), and conceded his own riding in British Columbia, CBC News reported. At the time Singh conceded, Liberal Wade Chang was leading the vote, with Conservative James Yan close behind-Singh a distant third. This election, the decimation of the NDP is "a sad outcome" for Singh's leadership, Senator Rosa Galvez told The Mix panel, adding that the general impression was that Singh pressured former prime minister Justin Trudeau on health and dental care, but not so much on environment issues. At this hour, the Liberals are projected to form government, though it's still unclear whether they'll secure a majority or remain in minority territory. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre congratulated Mark Carney on his victory-but has yet to win his own seat in the Ontario riding of Carleton. Good night-and check back tomorrow at for the latest news and updates. 12:05 AM The conversation has shifted to the dynamics of a possible minority Liberal government. Lyn Adamson, a longtime advocate for climate and peace said the strong Conservative vote tonight could create a challenge for the Liberals who need to stand up to the oil and gas lobby. Adamson added she would like to know whether young men are driving that Conservative vote: "what messages are they responding to? Are they resisting both energy transition/green economy and 'woke' culture?" Economic development, cities, and climate action leader George Benson said, that if Conservative Party is polling above 40% with Pollievre's leadership, then progressives need to step back and ask how to back those who are flocking to them. Josephine Grey, a veteran community organizer, said that "many people want to believe climate issues are false because they are already so economically insecure that they can't see how they could survive the shift from the fossil fuel economy." "These are the same people who think equity is a threat to their security," she said. "The fear/rage algorithms have made a lot of people very confused and irrational." Advocating for a Basic Income Guarantee (BIG), Grey said it might help people let go of their fears to "be able to think again." The climate community needs to include BIG as a key support for climate resilience and adaptation, she suggested. "There are many people in my community who would like to invest more time in our healthy food co-op but can't because multiple low wage jobs devour all their time and energy," she said. "A basic income would allow people stuck in fossil fuels and other polluting jobs to move towards a greener economy." Editor's note: Even with the razor-close results, we aren't sure this counts as multi-solving, Caroline. The sense that Canada is in crisis, fuelled by threats from Trump, brings Canadians to a "singular moment of opportunity," said sustainability advocate and community builder, Rebecca Aird. She called for "a grounded but big picture vision of what is possible regionally and nationally to create more sustainable economies and a more satisfying and rich future." "It would take a lot of discipline over the coming years and decades-and very possibly more social consensus than can be mustered-to set ourselves up for success," she said. Focusing only on climate mitigation may not be enough to win public support for needed solutions, she added. Aird called on leaders to "multi-solve," even if that means investing substantially in longer-term climate solutions. "Canadians are seeing themselves differently right now," she said. "The sense of crisis that has been brewing due to a growing affordability crisis, fraying safety nets, growing regional impacts of climate change, has now been exponentially fuelled by actions taken and threatened by Trump." Veteran community organizer Josephine Grey said "pushing for a human-rights-based Basic Income Guarantee to provide stability will help get us through the trade wars, housing and food crises, and help families and communities adapt to eco-chaos." The MAGA madness is giving us this opportunity as a country to choose human rights and climate action over corporate rule and extraction to extinction," Grey said, adding "we should welcome escaping USians and States that want to join Canada." 10:51 PM As CBC News projected a Liberal government, Senator Rosa Galvez noted it is not yet clear if they will reach majority. The stakes are high if Carney heads Canada, she added. "With Trump taking United States again out of the Paris Accord, there is such a climate-energy leadership void." "Carney's Canada hopefully will fill some if not a lot of this space." An important United Nations climate summit, COP30, is coming up later this year, and Latin American parliamentarians wanting to make sure that this COP is different than the last 3 ones, Galvez added. "I'm sharing with you that we are more that 100 parliamentarians of the Americas including four from the United States asking the Amazon countries to stop the expansion of fossil fuels." View our latest digests "There are several liberal, BQ and NDPs MPs for whom the climate and energy agenda is top of their priorities, so we all-for whom preserving a livable planet is priority-must start strategizing to implement and report on progress so Canada does not remain as the only G7 country that can't decouple emissions from economy." 10:50 PM Rather than fitting climate change into the economic frame, could the focus shift to climate as an essential health issue suggested environmental, climate and democracy advocate Sabrina Bowman. And will any parties/politicians lean into this? Climate communicator Conor Curtis responded that people respond to both frames, and that he sees them as complementary. "I think in general we get a bit caught up as a movement about choosing the right frame when often different frames can be layered on one another." "Health is huge for people and so is the economy so connecting those frames to climate is where we could make some big impacts on public opinion. And health impacts have economic costs and vice versa, he added. "The story should have layers" Courtney Howard, an emergency physician and climate-health advocacy leader suggested a third alternative: "I think we maybe need to accept that "safety" is the frame and slot health into that. It's doable." Safety is the most directly relevant and tangible frame, agreed communications advisor Jessie Sitnick. "Floods, fires, storms. It's about keeping families safe, keeping your home safe. And health does live in here but it's also bigger than health. It's a sense of control and security." 10:35 PM The discussion has turned to how or whether Carney changes his tune beginning tomorrow, whichever way things end tonight. Veteran climate activist and author Bill McKibben said his hope is that we "may be pushing on an increasingly open door." "When Trudeau took office, fossil fuel was considerably cheaper than renewables, and that still defines his worldview," said McKibben. "Carney will take office with renewables considerably cheaper-and the rest of the world is figuring that out." McKibben pointed to this week's energy negotiations in the European Union, where the Trump administration's pitch for more fossil fuel development was met with a shrug. "The markets for endless hydrocarbons just aren't going to be there, and Carney is smart enough to get ahead of that trend," said McKibben. "But how you convince Alberta, I have no idea." George Benson, a leader on economic development, cities, and climate action said he's watching larger African and SE Asian markets to see whether oil and gas markets aren't there. "I think Carney's most effective message is to say 'I can navigate these global shifts for you, not force them on you.'" The Mix publisher Mitchell Beer said "the persona Carney tried to build during the election was pragmatic, sweating the details, and if something isn't working, we'll fix it." "I think Carney's going to always hew towards being a 'navigator' for the country, rather than someone who governs by dictate," added Benson." The perception could be really helpful if (1) he does good 'navigating,' and (2) it feels like he still has a clear North Star on the horizon," Benson said, "everyone wants more-both narratively and practically-than just a crisis manager." 10:20 PM Could climate change have faded as a concern in Canada because the government failed to deliver a clear, compelling vision of a better future Sustainability advocate and community builder Rebecca Aird says that the Liberals, from the start of the Justin Trudeau era in 2015, "missed the opportunity to establish a concise, compelling narrative of the future-positive economy they were aiming to create." "Their climate actions looked (and often were) disconnected and scatter-shot," Aird said. Aird added she thinks Carney is capable of doing better, but that she hasn't heard enough in the run up to this election that gives her confidence he will. Will Carney live into his strengths on climate and the economy if elected tonight? asked campaigner Cat Abreu. "So far he's missed the opportunity to change the conversation." "Instead, he's accepted the Conservative framing of climate action being expensive, missed the chance to trumpet the economic and jobs benefits of a real transition, and promised to build more pipelines." "Carney certainly knows better," said moderator Mitchell Beer, adding: "If the Liberal brain trust saw climate as a third rail issue during the campaign, rightly or wrongly, how does that play out tomorrow morning if they've formed a government?" Climate communicator Conor Curtis, said climate needs to be recognized as "the practical way forward" a message that needs to reach audiences "we might not normally get to know." 9:58 PM Veteran energy modeller Ralph Torrie told the panel that while public transit investment is vital for social and public health, it's a slow and limited tool for cutting emissions quickly. "It takes ten years to plan and build a light rail or subway line," Torrie said, adding that electrifying cars and trucks is the fastest way to drive down transportation emissions. Transit advocate Denis Agar pointed out that new buses can be added in months, not years. Torrie agreed, but cautioned that the climate impact would still be small unless the added buses are electric and powered by renewable energy. "If you add enough buses that you attract people from cars to buses, emissions go down-provided the cars they come from are ICEs, and the transit riders you attract weren't carpooling," he said. "Not every measure that reduces emissions qualifies as a priority for the urgent reduction of emissions. Those are the choices we need to make now." Dave Sawyer, a leading environmental economist, asked Torrie whether co-benefits should be considered when setting priorities. "The priorities in an emergency are the measures that can be mobilized quickly and scaled relatively easily," Torrie replied. "For environmentalists, some of our priorities will not score well on those criteria: public transit, deep retrofits, redesigned urban form." But could everyone be right? panel moderator Mitchell Beer, publisher of The Energy Mix, asked. "We need the high-impact, high-priority quick wins," Beer said, "but I agree there's no solution without transit." 9:45 PM Public transit advocate, Denis Agar said he's disappointed candidates haven't seized upon public transit as a policy in this election, since "support for transit polls around the 80% pretty much everywhere." "Here in Metro Vancouver, there's wall to wall support, from the business community to the social justice community," he said. "No federal party has noticed yet how transit is the silver bullet climate measure, but we'll keep raising it." Conor Curtis, climate communicator and friend of The Mix said he sees our election discussions "ignoring some issues where there is clear polling consensus on making climate progress." "We're sometimes too caught up in the 'debate mode' election issues," he said. Agar said there is crushing overcrowding on transit across Canada, from Halifax to Kelowna to even smaller areas. "This is easily fixed (more buses), creates good local jobs, and most crucially, attracts more riders. We've seen massive growth in transit ridership basically as soon as more buses are added." Mitchell Beer, publisher of The Mix wondered "how much of this is about operating vs. capital spending in transit, and is congestion pricing the kind of 'moment' that can help people mobilize for the things we know we need to get done?" Curtis replied that "it's really down to creative solutions that integrate well with existing transit systems and adding capacity (through provincial or federal governments) to help communities discover and implement those solutions." Agar replied that he's "absolutely paying attention to the runaway success in New York" with what he called "de-congestion pricing.""The biggest problem we're up against is that the centre-left party that runs this province, the British Columbia NDP, has staked their reputation on having removed the tolls from two bridges eight years ago," he said. "Last year, they put up a huge billboard essentially saying 'don't forget, we're the ones that removed the toll from this bridge,' so that makes things complicated." 9:10 PM "For an election commonly framed as 'not about the climate' I'm seeing nature emerge as Canadians' top source of national identity (far above even hockey)," said Conor Curtis, climate communicator and good friend of The Mix. "This election is very much about our identity." "Polling from March showed 65% of Canadians favour renewables over oil and gas development, majority support for an end to oil and gas subsidies from more recent polling, as well as majority support for making sure oil and gas corporations are held accountable for pollution." "People are really concerned about the threat the U.S. administration poses to key water bodies like the Great Lakes. And while it's often framed in terms of 'water as a resource' I think people are also honestly just concerned about the water bodies themselves," said Curtis. He had this prediction: "Water is going to emerge as a key sovereignty issue going forward and from my own experience it is something people are very engaged with as an issue already." 7:50 PM From just south of the border in Vermont, watching through their fingers and still "forever scarred" by their own recent election, veteran climate activist and author Bill McKibben said he hopes the U.S. results serve as a wake-up call for Canadians. "I am extremely hopeful that our dismal experience down here will at least have had the saving grace of serving as a warning beacon for y'all!" said McKibben, a onetime proud resident of Leaside-one grade behind Stephen Harper at Northlea Public School in Toronto. Award-winning campaigner Cat Abreu added that while there has been a bit of a "rebound effect"-with voters rejecting the chaos they see unfolding in the U.S. and conservative leaders suffering by comparison-climate policy has still taken a hit. "To a large extent, climate was treated as a third rail issue in this election, with most leaders letting one party set the frame for the climate conversation, and no party presenting a climate platform that actually modelled a plan to meet our targets." Canadians Reject the Trump Vibe Commenting on the idea that this election in particular is a "vibe" election, communications advisor Jessie Sitnick said the "anti-Trump vibe" shaping this vote is about more than just tariffs and takeover. "I think there it is a full package that includes anti-science, anti-evidence, anti-compassion, anti-equity," Sitnick said. "I think that is what Canadians are rejecting." "And while that is not a statement about climate policy per se, I don't think you can have climate progress if you don't reject those attitudes and embrace their opposites." Another question to the panel, this time from leading environmental economist Dave Sawyer: What are your top three climate or energy priorities for a new government? For Caroline Brouillette, there is one important policy that doesn't get enough attention: Canada committing to international climate finance beyond 2026. "That's key to us being a constructive and credible player in climate diplomacy," she said, "especially as many-most drastically the U.S.-are cutting aid that makes it not only fairer for poorer countries to contribute to climate action, but possible." Liberal Leader Mark Carney "would know more about climate change than any elected official in the world, and roughly ten times as much about climate finance as any elected official in the world," responded activist and author Bill McKibben, watching the election from across the border in Vermont. Campaigner Cat Abreu hopes for real action from Carney: "Finally pass a single climate friendly fiscal policy in Canada? Finally introduce like one regulation on the finance sector? Actually implement this languishing green taxonomy that's been done forever?" Veteran environment and climate policy analyst Diane Beckett noted that several Canadian municipalities already have their priorities in order. Local leaders have urged federal parties to build a clean power grid and a high-speed rail network to boost self-reliance. "We could do worse than to use that as our roadmap," Beckett said. With big words like sovereignty-and loud figures like Trump-dominating the conversation this election, there's been growing concern that climate and the energy transition took a backseat. Climate communicator and organizer Caroline Brouillette argues that whether or not politicians mentioned "climate" directly, this election focused on issues that have "everything to do with the climate crisis." "Accelerating unnatural disasters are behind the rising cost of groceries and food, global oil price spikes are leading to higher costs for heating, cooling and transportation, Arctic and water sovereignty are being threatened by a belligerent United States leader, and there were debates about cuts to financial assistance to poor countries in the Global South." Communications advisor Jessie Sitnick pointed out that it's odd to talk about climate as if it's just an "issue" when it's actually a "context." Put another way, it's not an issue but an era, said energy transition expert and advocate Dan Woynillowicz. So what does an election look like in an era of climate change? Veteran policy analyst Aaron Freeman looks at it in terms of the takeaways political actors will draw after the votes are counted: what mandates they'll claim, and what priorities they'll pursue. "Leadership on this issue will depend more on the personalities that are elected and appointed to key positions rather than how climate played out during the campaign." On that front, Freeman notes, there are some excellent champions positioned to win seats. Hello all, this is Farida, The Mix's managing editor. I'll be updating this file through the night as results come in-and as our panel of experts, advocates, and friends across Canada tell us what's on their mind: the wins, losses, surprises, and key moments. Kicking things off earlier today, veteran Canadian energy modeller Ralph Torrie asked the panel a big question-especially as Canada faces economic threats and tensions with the United States-and rethinks its role on the world stage: Do we want Canada to be an energy superpower? It's an idea both main party leaders would probably love to claim, especially with Canada focused on strength and independence. But Torrie pointed out that while past leaders like Stephen Harper talked up the idea-and it has now been adopted by Prime Minister Mark Carney, "presumably with a different technology mix"-the term itself is rooted in Cold War thinking. It suggests dominance and concentrated power, he said, at odds with the diversity, resilience, and equitability needed in a secure, sustainable world order. Please check back in for updates as the evening progresses. Source: The Energy Mix
Canada Standard
26-04-2025
- Business
- Canada Standard
Q&A: What Canada's Election Means for Climate Action and Ties With Europe-Amid Trump-Era Tensions
Canadians across six time zones go to the polls April 28 in a high-stakes federal election that will shape the country's climate and energy policy and its response to economic warfare and annexation threats issued by U.S. president Donald Trump. With just days to go, the Liberal Party under Mark Carney holds a solid lead. Carney has pledged to develop both clean and low-carbon conventional energy and advance carbon border policies. His main opponent, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, has promised to roll back several climate policies introduced by previous Liberal governments and expand fossil fuel exports. The election outcome will determine whether Canada doubles down on pitching new oil and gas projects to Europe and Asia or becomes a partner in a new clean energy trading bloc. This Q&A is part of a cooperation between The Energy Mix and Clean Energy Wire , Europe's leading platform for collaborative and solution-oriented climate and energy journalism, to better connect the climate and energy stories from Europe and Canada. Led by the Conservatives, Canada would prioritize fossil fuel expansion and ease regulations to support oil and gas. Under the Liberals, it would lean toward stronger clean energy partnerships and trade alignment with global allies-including through emissions abatement in the oil and gas sector, without production cuts. Carney has backed Canada's climate commitments and is expected to carry forward most of former prime minister Justin Trudeau's clean energy and climate policies. From 2015 to 2025, Trudeau's Liberal government introduced dozens of climate, energy efficiency, and renewable energy measures and set out to strengthen environmental impact assessment. At the same time, the government spent billions of dollars to nationalize, then subsidize the controversial Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion, supported expanded exports of Canadian fossil fuels, and joined some provincial governments in encouraging and subsidizing new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals. While Canada's natural gas exports currently flow almost entirely to the U.S. via pipeline, its first LNG shipments to Asia are expected by mid-2025. Trudeau's flagship consumer carbon tax introduced in 2019 was designed to put a price on pollution while rebating more money to most Canadians than they paid out through higher prices. But the policy was complicated and its rollout was a major communications failure. As a result, the Conservative Party and its allies in some provincial governments were able to turn the carbon tax into a lightning rod for controversy. While the consumer carbon tax was withdrawn April 1 2025, a separate industrial carbon tax is still in place and widely seen as a cornerstone of any future effort to align Canada's trade strategy and climate policies with partners outside North America. Through it all, Canada is only barely on track to meet its 2030 emission reduction targets, and remains a leading fossil fuel exporter amid growing global pressure to phase out fossil fuels. Public opinion supports nature conservation and new fossil fuel pipelines side by side, although climate has receded as a top polling issue in the face of the affordability crisis and now Trump's explicit threats to Canada's status as an independent nation. The election will determine the ground on which these policy battles are fought. Carney would expand incentives for electric vehicles and home retrofits. He backs a carbon border adjustment aligning Canada with trade partners like the European Union and would keep the Trudeau government's long-delayed emissions cap on oil and gas, while working with industry to meet climate targets-including by supporting carbon capture and storage (CCS) development. His proposed trade and energy corridor includes ports, rail, airports, highways, and critical mineral mining, but no new oil pipelines-though he has previously supported them. In a televised leaders' debate April 17, he specifically expressed support for CCS and small modular nuclear reactors as elements of a low-carbon future. Liberal leader Mark Carney promises a "Canada Strong" program to grow the economy while tackling climate change, earning support from green advocates. But his pragmatic stance has led some to question where he stands on key issues. He once praised Trudeau's consumer carbon tax, then cancelled it when it became politically divisive. His focus is now on tightening carbon markets for industrial polluters and giving companies more price certainty to drive investments in emissions abatement. View our latest digests Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre vowed to axe Trudeau's widely unpopular consumer carbon tax, but that central campaign promise was blunted when Trudeau resigned and incoming PM Mark Carney eliminated the tax himself. Poilievre now promises to go further by ending carbon pricing for industrial polluters and cancelling the oil and gas emissions cap. His plan to "unleash" Canadian resources involves repealing the federal Impact Assessment Act -a Trudeau-era law that mandates environmental, health, social, and economic assessments, including consideration of Indigenous rights-before approving major resource projects. Instead, Poilievre backs faster approvals along pre-approved corridors for pipelines and power lines. RELATED STORY: 'Kind of Shocking': Election Result Could Make Canada the Only G7 Country with Rising Emissions Indigenous leader Savanna McGregor, Grand Chief of the Algonquin Anishinabeg Nation Tribal Council, warned that plan would "nearly paralyze" project development if it failed to uphold the constitutional requirement to consult Indigenous communities before approving major infrastructure-a right rooted in Canada's recognition of Indigenous peoples as distinct nations with title to their lands. Some coastal Indigenous groups are preparing to fight Poilievre's plan to scrap a law that bans oil tankers from environmentally sensitive parts of Canada's west coast, legislation that the oil industry argues is restricting export opportunities. Based on polling throughout the campaign, none of the three other parties in the House of Commons-the Bloc Quebecois, the New Democratic Party of Canada (NDP), or the Green Party of Canada-will have any chance of forming Canada's next government. Any or all of them could have significant influence in a minority Parliament, but at the moment all signs point to a majority Liberal government. Among the three, the Bloc has been the most consistent voice against new oil and gas pipelines, tapping into public opinion in Quebec that favours decisive climate action more than in any other province. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh was the only one to discuss climate impacts and climate despair in the leaders' televised debate. The Green Party is very small in Canada; it currently holds two seats in Parliament, and is at risk of losing one of them. Trump's threats have completely transformed the dynamic in this election. In early January, Trudeau had been in office for nearly a decade, his popularity across the country had cratered, and the opposition Conservative Party was running 25 points ahead of the Liberals in pre-election polling. Trudeau announced his resignation January 6, and Mark Carney-the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, credited with guiding Canada through the 2008 economic crash and the UK through Brexit-was sworn in March 14 after winning the Liberal leadership at a party convention. The federal election campaign began days later. For years, Poilievre had been campaigning on his promise to "axe the tax" (which Carney did almost immediately) and a deeply personal vilification of Trudeau and some of his top cabinet ministers. But now, the top ballot question is who can best defend Canada's economy and sovereignty from Trump-who imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, pledged to crush car manufacturing in Canada, issued shifting trade threats that triggered recession fears, and repeatedly joked (or not) that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state. As of April 19, polling aggregator 338Canada showed the Liberals leading the Conservatives 43% to 38%, a five-point margin that-if reflected in the election results-would likely provide the Liberals with enough seats to form a government. Canada's fossil fuel industry received Poilievre's enthusiastic backing after it launched a massive public relations push framing new pipelines and looser regulations as key to protecting the economy and sovereignty from Trump. Some opinion polls show support for new pipelines. While Carney is being vague about pipelines, senior Liberal cabinet ministers have pointed out that there is no private sector proponent to build one, and the coming decline in global fossil fuel demand would ultimately turn any new fossil infrastructure into an expensive stranded asset. In 2015, shortly after he was first elected, Trudeau travelled to the Paris climate conference to declare, "Canada is back, my friends. We're here to help." The policy decisions that followed, along with Trudeau's appointment of an environment and climate change minister who had attended every United Nations climate summit since COP 1 in various roles, helped solidify Canada's standing as a constructive voice in international climate diplomacy. Although the election will determine the "direction of travel", as COP negotiators like to say, for Canada's international climate policies, those issues haven't been addressed in any depth in the course of the election. But a Liberal government under Mark Carney would be far more likely to stay the course than a Conservative government under Pierre Poilievre. During the Liberal Party leadership campaign, Carney talked about building new alliances with like-minded countries and hinted at a carbon border adjustment tax (CBAM) that would essentially serve as a tariff against high-carbon imports. While the election campaign has largely focused on domestic issues, the Liberals staged a windy photo op April 18 in the iconic border city of Niagara Falls, where Carney accused Trump of "rupturing-literally rupturing-the global economy". Of all the party leaders, Carney has been most vocal about moving beyond Canada's economic dependence on the United States and building wider, more diversified trading relationships. In the course of the campaign, there has been a good deal of public debate about what a new, low-carbon trading bloc might look like, with the EU, the United Kingdom, and Canada joined in various scenarios by Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, or Australia. There have been no public indications that any of Canada's party leaders have been actively involved in those discussions, although Carney travelled to Europe during his first week as Prime Minister for high-level meetings with "reliable allies" like France and the UK. There has been some expectation that Carney's past international profile as governor of the Bank of England and UN special envoy for climate finance will raise the potential and the expectation for Canada to step up more concretely if the Liberals win the election. Poilievre has struggled to differentiate his policies and public persona from Trump's and to coherently critique the U.S. administration's economic warfare and annexation threats. That's partly because the small proportion of Canadians who support Trump, including the 10% or less who are prepared to consider annexation, are at the heart of the Conservatives' political base. During the leaders' debate, Poilievre said he would address climate change by exporting more liquefied natural gas, presumably as a replacement for coal, to countries like India. The emissions footprint of gas is not widely understood in Canada, but its primary component is methane-a climate super-pollutant with 84 times more global warming potential than carbon dioxide over the crucial 20-year span when humanity will be scrambling to get climate change under control. These differences in policy and approach will also come into play when Canada hosts the next G7 leaders' summit in Kananaskis, Alberta June 15-17. "This year will be an opportunity for Canada to demonstrate our leadership and advance meaningful dialogue, collective action, and innovative solutions, for the benefit of all peoples," Canada's G7 website currently states. Canada is a federation made up of a national government, 10 provinces, and three territories. On April 28, Canadians will vote for the 343 members of the House of Commons, each of whom will represent a geographic constituency. The 105 seats in Canada's appointed Senate are not affected by this month's vote. The Prime Minister, who serves as the head of government, is the leader of the party that holds the majority of seats in the House of Commons. If no party wins at least 172 seats in the April 28 election, the party with the most seats has the first opportunity to form a functioning government by negotiating for support from smaller parties. This can be through a formal but time-limited coalition. While the federal government has jurisdiction to regulate pollution and interprovincial or international trade, the provinces hold-and often loudly assert-their authority over natural resources, including oil, gas, and coal. Source: The Energy Mix
