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Time Magazine
09-08-2025
- Business
- Time Magazine
Trump Has the Upper Hand Going into His Meeting with Putin
Amidst President Donald Trump' dance with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he has threatened to impose heavy tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and announced that he and Putin will meet in Alaska to discuss a potential Ukraine peace deal. Ahead of their meeting on Aug. 15, Trump needs to remember that he holds all the cards—while Putin holds none. It would be a mistake if this turned into merely another instance when Trump threatens Putin with tough talk, only to back down prematurely. For all Putin's tough guy bluster, the reality is that Putin is staring down bankruptcy. For years now, Putin has been obfuscating how weak the Russian economy really is, by hiding and fudging the numbers. Putin refuses to disclose major economic indicators as required by The International Monetary Fund (IMF). This ranges from foreign trade data, monthly output data on oil and gas, and central bank monetary base data. Even Rosaviatsiya, Russia's federal air transport agency, has stopped publishing data on air passenger volumes. Read More: How Trump's Decision to Fire BLS Commissioner Echoes Putin's Strategies Due to Putin's obfuscation, few appreciate how close Putin is to running out of cash—even though all the evidence has been hiding in plain sight. The value of Putin's sovereign wealth fund and foreign exchange reserves have dwindled by half since Putin's invasion of Ukraine, as he draws down his windfall oil revenues faster than he can replenish his coffers. That is because Putin is running unsustainable record budget deficits to fund his war machine in the tens of billions. And with over 1,000 multinational businesses having exited from Russia, Putin is running out of new cookie jars to raid to keep the lights on. In addition to the massive flight of capital from the country, the exodus of Russia's tech professionals, and the disappearance of foreign direct investment, puts Putin in a bind. This difficult position might explain why Putin's grip over even his own loyal underlings is slipping as more economic officials speak out with warnings over the dire state of the economy—a rarity in Putin's command and control system. The Russian Central Bank itself is forecasting no GDP growth by the end of 2025, with Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina warning last month that the economy had reached 'the edge of capacity.' Meanwhile, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said the country was 'on the verge of a transition to recession'. Putin is trying to put a band-aid on cancer, by encouraging the Agriculture and Trade ministries to put in price caps on dairy, vegetables, and poultry. Price caps might temporarily alleviate the pain but in the long run, all it accomplishes is exacerbate supply shortages and public discontent. Unless Putin ends his war, he threatens to strangle his own nation with inflation. As Trump pointed out, Russian inflation has gone through the roof with annual inflation near 10%. Basic food items are becoming prohibitively expensive, with milk and dairy inflation near 20%; bread and bakery inflation near 15%; and fruit and vegetable inflation near 30%. Inflation across gasoline, housing, and utilities is similarly in the double digits. No wonder that even Russian pollsters themselves acknowledge that 58% of Russians named rising prices as their top concern, while only 33% mentioned the war in Ukraine. Read More: What Trump Can't Achieve in Ukraine Given this deteriorating economic backdrop for Putin, Trump holds all the cards while Putin holds none. If Trump chooses to escalate economic sanctions and economic pressure on Russia, through cutting off Putin's exports of oil, and other natural resources, Putin could run out of money very soon—perhaps even by the end of the year. Putin's bluff is ready to be called—if Trump plays his hand correctly and doesn't back down prematurely. But this game of cards isn't the only one afoot. If Trump moves forward with his Putin meeting, he has to know that going in unprepared is also akin to playing Russian Roulette; and he needs to know which chambers have the bullets.
Time of India
13-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold heads for weekly gain as Middle East tensions spur safe-haven demand
Gold prices climbed on Friday and were poised for a weekly gain, as Middle East tensions boosted demand for safe-haven assets , while a weaker dollar and expectations of imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve also supported bullion. FUNDAMENTALS * Spot gold was up 0.8% at $3,412.29 an ounce, as of 0028 GMT. Bullion has gained 3.1% so far this week. * U.S. gold futures gained 1.2% to $3,384.40. * Gold prices rose as investors turned to safe-haven assets following reports that Israel has begun carrying out strikes on Iran. Two U.S. officials said on Thursday that the United States had no involvement in the operation. * U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that U.S. personnel were being moved out of the region as it could be a "dangerous place" and that the United States would not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. Live Events * The U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level in more than three years, making dollar-priced gold more affordable for overseas buyers. * Signaling a cooling labor market and subdued inflation pressures, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits held at an eight-month high last week, while slowing domestic demand helped to restrain producer prices in May. * The data was released a day after the Labor Department reported a moderate rise in consumer prices in May. * Traders are now expecting a 55-basis-point rate cut by the year-end, starting in September rather than October as previously anticipated. * Meanwhile, The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that its next global growth forecast in July will take into account both positive and negative trade developments but declined to predict a tariff-driven GDP downgrade similar to that released by the World Bank this week. * Elsewhere, spot silver was up 0.3% at $36.25 per ounce, platinum rose 0.2% to $1,297.72, while palladium gained 0.6% to $1,062.35. All three metals were headed for weekly gain. DATA/EVENTS (GMT) 0600 Germany HICP Final YY May 0645 France CPI YY NSA May 0645 France CPI MM NSA May 0900 EU Total Trade Balance SA April. ETMarkets WhatsApp channel )
Forbes
12-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
The Unofficial #1 On Forbes' 2025 World's Most Influential CMOs List
Wondering if and when the other shoes will drop getty The Unofficial #1 designation is given to a person, force, or condition with outsized influence over CMOs and their ability to influence growth. — Stepping back 125 years to early 20th-century New York City, and you find the origins of an almost apt metaphor for the current state of global affairs and global marketing alike. Returning to your tenement apartment after a day in the factory, you'd sit on your bed and begin getting out of your work clothes. As you took off your first shoe and it dropped to the floor, your downstairs neighbor couldn't help but hear its thud through the tenement's thin ceiling. Then they'd wait for the thud of your other shoe dropping. While these are certainly 'other shoe' times, the metaphor is only almost apt because then, there was a certainty the other shoe would ultimately drop. Today however, nothing is certain, little is inevitable or predictable, most everyone is on edge, and seemingly any crazy thing could happen (or not) in any given moment. In fact, in April and across 142 countries, The International Monetary Fund's World Uncertainty Index, recorded the single highest level of global uncertainty—higher than during the Pandemic or the 2008 economic crisis—since tracking began 17 years ago. While much is uncertain, regardless of your politics or nationality, what's not is that no one and nothing has greater influence over the ripple effects of what happens next from shoes that do or don't fall than the current American president. And so—and not because by any objective measure he is a marketing savant—for his outsized influence on global uncertainty, its near and long-term consequences, and thus on what CMOs and the brands and companies they help steward do and don't next, I've named Donald Trump The Unofficial #1 on the 2025 Forbes World's Most Influential CMOs list. No one and nothing thrive on uncertainty, and the discomfort, wariness, volatility and the should-we-or-shouldn't-we vacillation it creates is good for neither one's best laid marketing plans nor buying behavior. Whether by design or disposition, from Wall Street to Main Streets, China to Chicago, the chaos and radical uncertainty sown by the President's words and deeds finds consumer and corporate sentiment jumpier than Elon at a Trump rally before their break-up. Any semblance of predictability around tariffs, interest rates, taxes, retaliatory taxes, prices, jobs, inflation, recession, geo-political alliances, trade wars and military ones, is confounding capital markets, forecasts, budgets, supply chains, human brains and emotions in real-time. Willingness to spend by consumers and companies alike whose expectations are tossed-about by contradictory signals and volatile moods is throttled. So, corporate guidance and forecasts are being cut, as costs and prices remain in limbo. No small part of why Global GDP is expected to grow at its slowest rate in almost 20 years, and why The World Bank anticipates this being the weakest decade of economic growth in almost 60. Admonishing anyone getty As quick to publicly admonish and/or punish stalwarts of the global economy from Apple to Walmart to Los Angeles as he is to threaten Presidents Zelensky, Ramaphosa and Xi, Greenland and NATO, his all-caps proclamations can have as much near-term impact on global markets—and thus marketing—as any actual policy that may or may not follow. CEOs and CFOs want growth without risk and savings without sales impacts, as if that were a thing. Legal wants safety. Boards want clarity. And no one wants to be wrong. All of which delays corporate actions and decisions, and equally, makes the creative and bold-ideas so essential to value creation and capture feel riskier than they'd otherwise be. While self-help books are replete with counsel about not obsessing over that which you can't control, that's not advice CMOs can heed (at least professionally) at a time when distracted audiences are harder to predict, reach and influence; when longer-term strategies seem disposable, and most everyone is doomscrolling their feeds on the regular to see what was or wasn't said and how this might affect what they do or don't next. Over the past five years, CMOs have learned that this year's plan could become this week's fire drill or act of triage in any given moment. But, thanks to the President, this has never been more so. And so, chief marketers are pushed to 'do more with less,' (not unreasonable in and of itself) and to just 'wait and see.' Yet so it goes during this second Trump presidency, and so it goes for CMOs wondering when another all-caps tweet will drop. Or not. As Tom Petty sang, 'the waiting is the hardest part,' which is why this year, for his outsized influence on markets, marketers and marketing (to say nothing of humanity), Donald Trump is The Unofficial #1 on the 2025 Forbes World's Most Influential CMOs list. Thank you for your attention to this matter. ... Note. I'd finished writing this when reminded that Mr. Trump was also named Time's Person of the Year, in December. Reminded, I considered going in another direction but, despite the redundancy, decided no one/nothing is a more appropriate choice. Under no illusion about the difference in attention the two designations get; I also hope to offer a reminder to the CEOs, CFOs and Board Directors reading this that anyone or anything influencing global conversations and sentiment influences what CMOs do and don't in turn. ... For those interested, in 2022, I named 'Anyone' the Unofficial #1 because 'Anyone' with a keyboard can change the trajectory of a brand and business in an instant. In 2023, Sam Altman was recognized as proxy for the then (and still) TBD implications of GAI on marketing. Last year, 'The CEO' was the Unofficial #1 for their oft unwitting and unintentionally but ultimately marketing-ignorant influence over the expertise and actions of CMOs.
Bloomberg
25-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
IMF Warns Europe Not to Block ‘Inevitable Structural Change'
By , Jana Randow, and Jorge Valero Save The International Monetary Fund warned Europe not to obstruct change as it attempts to alleviate the fallout from US President Donald Trump's tariff torrent. 'When dealing with trade shocks, any support to viable businesses aimed at mitigating tariff impacts should be temporary and targeted,' Alfred Kammer, director of the institution's European department, said Friday in Washington. 'Europe should protect people, but we have to be cautious not to stand in the way of inevitable structural change.'
Asharq Al-Awsat
09-04-2025
- Business
- Asharq Al-Awsat
IMF Reaches Deal with Troubled Argentina on $20 Billion Bailout
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said it has reached a preliminary agreement with Argentina on a $20 billion bailout, providing a welcome reprieve to President Javier Milei as he seeks to overturn the country's old economic order. As a staff-level agreement, the rescue package still requires final approval from the IMF's executive board. The board will convene in the coming days, the IMF statement said. The fund's long-awaited announcement offered a lifeline to President Milei, who has cut inflation and stabilized Argentina's troubled economy with a free-market austerity agenda. His policies have reversed the reckless borrowing of left-wing populist governments that had brought Argentina infamy for defaulting on its debts. The country has received more IMF bailouts than any other. It came at a critical moment for South America's second-biggest economy. Pressure had been mounting on Argentina's rapidly depleting foreign exchange reserves as the government tightened rules on money-printing and burned through its scarce dollars to prop up the wobbly Argentine peso. Fears grew that if the government failed to secure an IMF loan, hard-won austerity measures would veer off-track and leave Argentina, once again, unable to service its huge debts or pay its import bills. The fresh cash gives Milei a serious shot at easing Argentina's strict foreign exchange controls, which could help convince markets of his program's sustainability. For the past six years, the capital restrictions have dissuaded investment, preventing companies from sending profits abroad and ensuring the central bank's careful management the peso, which is pegged to the dollar. Racking up 22 IMF loans since 1958, Argentina owes the IMF more than $40 billion. Most IMF funds have been used to repay the IMF itself, giving the organization a fraught reputation among Argentines. Many blame the lender for the country's historic economic implosion and debt default in 2001. The IMF was wary of striking yet another deal with its largest debtor. But over the past 16 months, fund officials have praised Milei's austerity — a diet harsher than even the fund's typical prescription. A former TV personality and self-proclaimed ' anarcho-capitalist,' Milei came to power on a vow to shrink Argentina's bloated bureaucracy, kill spiraling inflation, open the economy to international markets and woo foreign investors after years of isolation. Unlike Argentine politicians in years past who sought to avoid enraging the masses with brutal austerity, Milei has taken his chainsaw to the state, firing tens of thousands of state employees, dissolving or downgrading a dozen ministries, gutting the education sector, cutting inflation adjustments for pensions, freezing public works projects, lifting price controls and slashing subsidies. Critics note that the poor have paid the highest price for Argentina's rosy macroeconomic indicators. Retirees have been protesting weekly against low pensions, with the decrease in payments accounting for the largest share of Milei's budget cuts. Major labor unions announced a 36-hour general strike starting Wednesday in solidarity. Still, Milei has maintained solid approval ratings, a surprise that analysts attribute to his success in driving down inflation, which dropped to 118% from 211% annually during his first year in office. Flipping budget deficits to surpluses has sent the local stock market booming and its country-risk rating, a pivotal barometer of investor confidence, tumbling. 'The agreement builds on the authorities' impressive early progress in stabilizing the economy, underpinned by a strong fiscal anchor, that is delivering rapid disinflation,' The Associated Press quoted the IMF as saying in announcing the agreement under a 48-month arrangement. 'The program supports the next phase of Argentina's homegrown stabilization and reform agenda." It remained unclear how much money Argentina would receive up-front — a key sticking point in the most recent negotiations over the deal's details. Argentina is seeking a hefty payment upfront to replenish its reserves, even as IMF loans are usually disbursed over several years. Milei shared the IMF statement on social media platform X, attaching a photo that showed him hugging Economy Minister Luis Caputo. 'Vavos!' he wrote — apparently misspelling 'Vamos!' or 'Let's go!' in his excitement.
