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The Market Online
15-05-2025
- Business
- The Market Online
Bulls and Bears: Where Markets Stand Post-Election
The Market This Month – Episode 4 Title: Bulls and Bears: Where Markets Stand Post-Election Episode 4 Intro: The Canadian Securities Exchange presents your go-to source for trends in junior and small cap markets each month. Join host Anna Seren and financial expert Bruce Campbell in partnership with Stockhouse. Welcome to episode four of the Market This month you're joining us in May of 2025 in the 2025 Canadian federal election held on April 28th. ANNA Mark Carney's Liberal Party secured a fourth consecutive term, forming a minority government with 169 seats, just three short of a majority. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, won 145 seats. Carney, a former central banker, also won his seat in Nepean, Ottawa. The Liberals' victory was attributed in part to public concern over U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies and annexation rhetoric, which contrasted with Carney's emphasis on Canadian sovereignty and economic stability. Following the election, Carney met with President Trump in a tense Oval Office meeting, where he firmly rejected Trump's suggestion of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state, stating 'Canada is not for sale.' The meeting highlighted ongoing tensions over trade and national sovereignty, with both leaders acknowledging the importance of continued dialogue despite their differences. Carney faces pressure to renegotiate a trade deal that supports jobs, especially in auto and resources—two sectors hit hard by U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, his energy platform emphasizes clean energy expansion, streamlined project approvals, and reduced reliance on the U.S., though analysts caution that meaningful impact could take years to materialize. Turning to our markets, we now try to assess—is this a bull market, bear market, or something in between? After the pullback from February highs to April lows, we're seeing signs of consolidation. But there's a technical signal flashing that has market watchers buzzing—the Breadth Thrust Indicator. We'll also dig into the safe haven debate: gold versus Bitcoin. Both assets are hovering near record highs. But which is better equipped for inflation, recession, or geopolitical tensions? Gold remains the traditional go-to, while Bitcoin continues to push boundaries with institutional interest and digital native adoption. As uncertainty looms, choosing your hedge wisely matters more than ever. As we navigate this evolving landscape—post-election shifts, global policy pressures, and volatile sentiment across sectors—one thing is clear: understanding market signals, sector exposure, and long-term trends is more important than ever. Hi, my name is Anna Serin, and I'm Director of Listings Development with the Canadian Securities Exchange. You're joining us here for episode four of The Market This Month. I'm joined by none other than Bruce Campbell with Stone Castle Investment Management. Thank you for joining me, Bruce. BRUCE It's awesome to be back. ANNA It is great to have you back here in Vancouver. We've had a fantastic spring so far—in weather, anyway. BRUCE Yes, absolutely. ANNA Okay, we have a lot to unpack today. We are speaking in May of 2025. This is episode four of The Market This Month, and we are in a post-election world—not post-apocalyptic, but post-election. So let's talk about that. We covered the election results in the intro. Hopefully all Canadian citizens know the results by now. Do you have any commentary on how the Liberal Party remaining in power might impact the market? BRUCE Yeah, the concern was what would happen and how that might impact investment markets, and we really didn't see much impact at all. So, the Canadian dollar was still fairly stable. Canadian markets were still fairly stable. Canadian bond rates were still fairly stable. So from that perspective, it really just came and went, and it didn't have a large impact on investing immediately. Now, this is where things are going to change going forward. What happens with productivity, what happens with unlocking resources—how will this all transpire over the next few years? ANNA Maybe another way of looking at it is that the rubber needs to hit the road now. There's been dialogue. I feel like we've been in this election mode for much longer than we were actually in it because we knew that Trudeau was going to be stepping down, we knew that Carney was going to be stepping in, and then we knew this election would happen. So we've been in this mode for a while. Do you think maybe the markets didn't react as much as we thought they might because there's a little bit of investor exhaustion—like reacting to it might be more than they're able to do anymore? BRUCE It could be exhaustion—not from the election itself, but just overall market exhaustion. There's been so much dynamic around the news flow and how that impacts markets. The other thing that could have played into this is that, while there were lots of polls flipping back and forth, from when Trudeau originally stepped down and the Conservatives had a big lead, it became apparent closer to election day that the Liberals were leading. So it wasn't a surprise. I think markets usually can price in an outcome, but when they're surprised, that's when you tend to see moves. ANNA That makes sense. Some of the things Carney has talked about implementing will take a little time to see how they play out and impact the market. So we'll pay attention to that. Okay—are we in a bull market or a bear market, Bruce? BRUCE We're unfortunately in kind of a no-man's land. There are lots of traditional metrics that are simple and people like to use—like the 200-day moving average. If the market is above the 200-day moving average or below it. In Canada, we are above that. By no means does that define a bull or bear market, but it's certainly positive—or at least not negative. In the U.S., we dropped way down and came back up to that level, and we've been gravitating around it for the last few weeks. What's concerning is the leadership. We saw technology leading before the correction. Now that's rotated to consumer staples, utilities, and financials. Financials are a good sign, but typically when staples and utilities lead, investors are concerned. So we have a bit of a barbell situation, and we're in this no-man's land—market purgatory, maybe. ANNA Or perhaps we've come through earnings? By the time this is broadcast, we'll be finished with most earnings. BRUCE And they've been fairly good for the most part. Obviously, one concern is tariffs and what impact those will have. We still won't know that for a while. So it's hard to say if we're in a new bull market, if we've just seen a correction, or if we're going to consolidate and go sideways. Only time will tell. ANNA Right. So we're not exactly sure where we're at. Hopefully it's a bull market. That's my hope for all of us. Okay, let's talk about a technical signal you follow—the Breadth Thrust Indicator. BRUCE Yes. ANNA I'm going to give a little background. The Breadth Thrust Indicator is a rarely triggered technical measure of market momentum. It was developed by fund manager Martin Zweig. It occurs when the 10-day moving average of advancing stocks versus total stocks on an exchange moves from below 40% to above 61.5% within 10 trading days. It's considered an extremely bullish sign. Since the inception of the S&P 500 in 1957, this signal has occurred only 16 times and has been 100% accurate in identifying the start of a new bull market. So what are we seeing now? BRUCE We've seen it trigger—it met the criteria. And every time this happens, people throw cold water on it—saying why it won't work this time, why this time is different. Those are the most dangerous words in investing: 'This time it's different.' But we know it has triggered. Some interesting stats have come out—Zweig looked at the data from 1957 onward, but others have gone further back, to the 1920s and '30s, and found that it didn't work 100% of the time. When it didn't, it was because we were heading into a recession or a depression—particularly during the 1929–1940 period. That's the one unknown: are we heading into something like that? Most people say we might see a recession but not a depression. So right now, we've got this positive signal. It doesn't guarantee anything, but when we combine it with other indicators, it's good to keep in mind. If things continue to improve, we're likely on the launchpad for something really strong. ANNA There do seem to be a few indicators right now suggesting the possibility of a market rally. BRUCE Yeah. The market has bottomed so far and hasn't retested those lows. It's regained about 50% of the drop from high to low, though it hasn't quite hit the 200-day moving average. What we want to see is investor appetite shift toward higher-growth companies rather than the defensive names like staples and utilities. We've seen this barbell effect before—2019 was an example, where both tech and utilities led. That was an interesting year. Maybe we see that again, but we need leadership. Financials are starting to come through—it'd be great to also see leadership from industrials, mining, or even technology. ANNA On that note—the one elephant in the room we haven't talked about yet in episode four is tariffs. It feels like the yo-yo effect is slowing. Tariffs are still here, but the back and forth seems to be easing. Is that helping the market settle? BRUCE Yes. Like those marbles on a string, the energy is wearing down. The swings are getting smaller. I don't think tariffs will be removed entirely, but they'll probably get scaled back. The market has started to recognize that and is pricing it in. The surprises are what cause the big market movements, and it seems like that's starting to fade. ANNA That's good for now. I guess we'll find out in the coming quarters how that's affecting company performance. BRUCE One big thing we've seen impacted is consumer sentiment. That's because of the uneasiness around tariffs. But interestingly, many studies show that when consumer sentiment is high, markets don't tend to do well over the following 12 to 24 months. BRUCE Right. And when consumer sentiment is low, markets do tend to perform very well because it's all washed out. Every time is unique, but human emotion tends to be fairly consistent. We've just seen a very low reading for consumer sentiment, so it'll be interesting to see what happens going forward. ANNA And it's just one more piece to add to all the others when we look at the feedback and the data together. When you talk about investor sentiment—even for me personally—when the markets are good, I don't examine my portfolio as closely as when they're bad. BRUCE Yeah. ANNA So maybe just the human nature component is that when there's a lot of uncertainty in the markets, we might pay more attention. Maybe we become more active investors, and maybe that leads to better markets. Perhaps. ANNA Okay, let's talk about gold and the U.S. dollar. The two are having a moment—tell us what's happening. BRUCE We've talked a lot about gold, and it's bumping up against new highs right now. What's interesting is the correlation. The U.S. dollar and gold have been moving in almost perfect opposite directions. If the U.S. dollar goes up, gold goes down—and vice versa. Historically, that relationship has been fairly steady, but over the last 90 days it's become really tight—around a -0.95 correlation. We didn't see that as much when gold was moving up over the last 18 months. During that time, there were periods when both gold and the dollar moved up—maybe not daily, but on a weekly or monthly basis. So it's something to watch because the two are currently trading inversely with a high level of correlation. ANNA Interesting. I guess my next question is: how does Bitcoin relate to all of this? BRUCE Lots of people refer to Bitcoin as the 'new gold' or a different kind of store of value. I don't think it's quite the same. I see gold as a currency, and it's clearly acting like one right now, given how it's behaving relative to the U.S. dollar. Bitcoin is also hitting new highs. When you look at the weight of evidence—like the Breadth Thrust indicator, the bull market signals—and now you see a risk asset like Bitcoin pushing toward all-time highs, it's something you need to pay attention to. ANNA Bitcoin's been around long enough now that you've got to imagine it will start getting treated as a fiat currency. There's a generation that might only know it as a normal currency. Do you think that will continue to add value and weight to it? BRUCE Potentially. What we have seen is it's becoming more institutionalized. Ten years ago, if a portfolio manager wanted to hold Bitcoin, it was extremely difficult. They had to set up a wallet, and custody was uncertain because traditional custodians wouldn't support it. Now, there are multiple ETFs across various cryptocurrencies. You can buy it, and five minutes later, if you want to sell it, you can. That's a big change. Institutions will likely continue to include Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies in their portfolios. Capital likes to flow where there's the least resistance, and now it's easier than ever to access crypto. ANNA Let's talk on a sector level. Some industries that were leading are no longer leading, and new sectors are emerging. What are you seeing? BRUCE Any time we go through a correction, the sector that led going in usually doesn't lead coming out—and that's what we're seeing now. Technology has been the strong leader for the last 18 months. There was a lot of interest in AI, and that hasn't gone away, but now valuations are starting to come into perspective. We've seen a bit of a growth-to-value shift. Now we're seeing other sectors leading. Financials, for example, are starting to accelerate, which is a good sign. We haven't seen a lot from energy, likely because oil prices haven't been that high. But it's a sector to watch. Historically, as global economic activity picks up, energy demand increases, which pushes prices higher. Before the tariffs, many economies were accelerating. Whether that continues is what the market is nervous about. ANNA Okay, we'll watch that for sure. Now it's time for my favourite part of the show—CSC-listed issuer news. We have some exciting developments from the past month. A newly listed company joined us in early May—McFarlane Lake Mining Limited. They came over to the CSE from Cboe Canada. The company is advancing a portfolio of gold exploration projects, including the past-producing McMillan and Mongowin properties near Sudbury; West Hawk Lake and High Lake near the Ontario-Manitoba border; and the Michaud-Monroe property along the Golden Highway east of Timmins. CEO Mark Reavisal said the move to the CSE—home to over 350 mining and exploration issuers—aligns with their growth strategy and increases investor visibility. We're very excited to have them. We love seeing local Canadian projects backed by strong teams. Welcome, McFarlane, and thank you for joining the CSE family. Beyond Oil—another company I wanted to mention—has been with us for a while. They're a food-tech innovator focused on reducing health risks from fried foods and improving sustainability in commercial kitchens. They recently exercised $4.5 million in warrants. They joined us two years ago at our inaugural Responsible Investment Summit. It's great to see what they've accomplished. What stood out to me in these market conditions is that not only did they exercise warrants, but they raised a significant amount of capital. What are your thoughts? BRUCE That stock has been performing really well. The company is executing and landing more deals. Those warrants were deep in the money, so investors chose to exercise them—which brings cash back to the company. It's also a return for the investors. This is exactly how warrants are supposed to work. They're intended to reward early-stage investors who took additional risk. When warrants are exercised, not only does the money go directly to the company rather than just trading in the secondary market, but it also means those shareholders are increasing their stake—coming back in for a second round, essentially. ANNA So, good for them. They've obviously done a really great job to have that much support in the markets. I also wanted to mention Dragonfly. They're a drone technology firm. They just raised $3.6 million USD under their NASDAQ listing. I thought this was interesting because we're starting to see more and more drone companies coming to market. That technology is really starting to be implemented in many different ways. We have some other companies coming to us with neat drone technology as well. But I also wanted to ask you—they're raising money in the U.S., and I was curious, with what's been going on in our current political framework, I know some of our issuers wonder: how do U.S. investors feel about investing in Canadian securities right now? What are your thoughts? BRUCE It's definitely a vote of confidence. The fact that these U.S. investors stepped in and invested—and did so in U.S. dollars—is great to see. ANNA Absolutely. Well, congratulations to Dragonfly. And finally, I just wanted to mention King Global Ventures. They closed an oversubscribed private placement of $5.51 million. The proceeds will fund ongoing exploration and drilling at their Black Canyon Project in Arizona, which includes 213 contiguous concessions and 15 former operating mines—including the past-producing Howard Copper Mine. The company is focused on precious and base metals exploration across North America. We continue to see these nice little exploration capital raises month by month. I know the markets have been tough in the junior and growth side, but we are seeing these nice little chunks getting raised. What are your thoughts on that? Is this specialized money? Where is this coming from? BRUCE Well, the taps haven't been fully turned on. But in a case like this—where they have old past-producing mines that became uneconomic at some point due to costs and metal prices—you're now seeing metal prices rise, and those projects become economic again. You can turn those lights back on. This has been the story of the last couple of years—not so much pure exploration, where you're digging to try and find something—but rather, 'Hey, we know there's something there. We just want to restart it and get it producing cash flow. We just need a bit of money to get there, and then we'll have the cash.' ANNA That's amazing. Well, congratulations to all of those CSE issuers on doing so well. Okay, Bruce, before we talk again next month, what should we be thinking about in the markets? BRUCE Lots to watch. We've talked about the bigger picture—whether we're in a bull or bear market. Hopefully, we get some clarity on that direction. Along with that comes clarity on which sectors will be leading and where the opportunities lie over the next 6, 12, or 24 months. ANNA Alright, well, I look forward to chatting with you again in a month. Thank you all for joining us for episode four of The Market This Month . We'll be back in June for episode five. We've got the Summit on Responsible Investment coming up—we'll be in your hometown of Kelowna. For anyone local, please come and join us. All the information can be found on our website. We'll also be releasing content all summer long, highlighting our issuers in the space, so stay tuned. If you go to our YouTube page, feel free to hit subscribe —and we'll let you know when new content goes live on CSE TV. Thank you again for joining us, Bruce. I look forward to chatting next month. This is third-party provided content please see full disclaimer here.
The Market Online
24-04-2025
- Business
- The Market Online
Global Markets, Canadian Politics, and the New Gold Rush
Transcript The Canadian Securities Exchange presents your go-to source for trends in junior and small cap markets each month. Join host Anna Seren and financial expert Bruce Campbell in partnership with Stockhouse. ANNA Hi, my name's Anna Seren. I'm director of Listings Development with the Canadian Securities Exchange. You're joining us for episode three of The Market This Month . The markets have been on edge as the world continues to wake up to daily updates surrounding looming trade wars. What we've witnessed is nothing short of historic: a $10 trillion global market swing over just 10 days. In April of 2025, investors are being reminded of the darkest chapters in market history—Black Tuesday in 1929, the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, the pandemic shock of 2020. And now to that list, we add a new entry: Liberation Day. This latest market meltdown was triggered by President Donald Trump following a series of sweeping tariff announcements over the past two weeks. The fallout has been dramatic. Between April 2nd and April 9th, $10 trillion was wiped from the global markets as investors fled U.S. equities, and most notably, U.S. treasuries. Perhaps the most shocking signal was a mass sell-off of U.S. Treasury bills, long considered the ultimate safe haven. The sudden plunge in both treasuries and the U.S. dollar has raised serious questions about investor confidence and global economic stability. In true Trump fashion, late on Friday, April 11th, he made a surprise announcement: a temporary suspension on tariffs on smartphones and laptop imports—80% of which are sourced from China. This was seen as a partial lifeline to tech giants like Apple, whose supply chains have been deeply rooted in East Asia for decades. While Apple has pledged to move some of its operations back to the U.S., including a $500 billion investment in a massive AI server facility in Texas, most of its international production remains vital to its global strategy. Thank you again for joining us for episode three of The Market This Month . I'm, of course, joined by my wonderful co-host, Bruce Campbell with Stone Castle Investment Management. Thank you for joining me, Bruce. BRUCE Yeah, great to be live again, right? Well, we said we weren't going to talk about tariffs this month, but guess what we're going to do? We're going to talk about tariffs, aren't we? ANNA We pretty much have to. We have to talk about tariffs. Alright, well, let's get into it. Obviously, it's been a crazy month. We just talked about what's happened over the past month. Tell us your thoughts on how this is going to affect the market. I mean, obviously it's a lot of volatility, right? BRUCE We saw the tariffs announced and the market went down by 14% immediately, and then the pause came and the markets rallied back 12% as of the time of this recording. But there's still so much uncertainty as far as what's going to happen. It's a 90-day pause. In the meantime, what can happen? Can there be different tariffs? Can there be more tariffs? That uncertainty is not what most investors like, and so there's going to be more volatility, unfortunately. ANNA And I think when we look at things that have happened in history that have caused these types of fluctuations in the market, usually there's some event that it's surrounding. But this is an event that feels like it keeps happening, and we never know when it's going to change. BRUCE Yeah, and I think Trump is obviously that event. I don't even know if Trump knows what he's doing next, or maybe he does have some master plan. But as an investor, I feel the same fear—what's going to happen next? So I feel like I'm just bracing and trying to hold on. ANNA Is that, do you think, what most investors are feeling? BRUCE Yeah, the fear of the unknown is a big one. How much bluffing and how much art of the deal is involved here, and how much of it is just kind of out of his control? I think most people feel there's a degree of both happening. ANNA And that out-of-control feeling is like, well, what happens if they make a policy error and we hit a recession? What does that mean for the markets? BRUCE If they are able to keep everything in control and all the pieces in place, then we could have had a downturn and perhaps they'll have their great economic policy that they roll out in tax savings, and markets will go higher. But if they happen to misstep and they send the economy into recession—woo, that's a whole other thing. ANNA Okay, so I want to ask you this about the tariffs. Because we hear about it on the news and all the media is talking about tariffs, but I want to ask you from an investment standpoint: how do the tariffs affect our investments? BRUCE Obviously it's going to hurt margin for certain companies on their ability to have bigger revenues and be able to grow. ANNA Is there a downside to this? Is there a potential upside once the tariffs are settled? Is there some kind of benefit or downfall, and how does this actually affect the companies that we're choosing to invest in? BRUCE Most economists that you talk to don't feel that there's really any upside to tariffs unless you're specifically looking at it from the U.S. tax or revenue perspective—it's really a form of tax. Now, looking at it from a company perspective, it's kind of interesting because the companies hit hardest by all this are U.S. companies. Some are affected by tariffs because they have products produced in tariffed regions. Say you're a Canadian company selling into the U.S. and a tariff is put on your product—that's going to impact your margins and potentially your sales. Suddenly your product is 10% higher due to the tariff, so now you have to compete with similar U.S. products. Do you drop your price and lower your margins? Or do you maintain the higher price because your product is better? What's interesting is that some global companies—not U.S. based—have actually outperformed. The market is looking at this from a different angle: that the U.S. may suffer the most. The purchasing power of the consumer is essentially being taken away again. We saw it with inflation, and the same principle applies here. Consumer purchasing power—70% of the U.S. economy—is now impacted because they'll be paying more for goods. ANNA As we discussed in the intro, companies like Apple have operated in East Asia for decades, manufacturing a lot of their products there. Apple has committed to spending $500 billion to establish U.S.-based manufacturing. Is this good for the stock? BRUCE They spent years moving away from China, and now they're being tariffed elsewhere. I suspect they'll get some breaks or find ways around these tariffs eventually. In the meantime, there's going to be a lot of volatility. Apple has come a long way off its high. Consumers want iPhones, and they want them cheap. Apple already said if they moved all production to the U.S., the price of an iPhone would double. Most people don't want to pay that. It's almost a necessity now—everyone has a phone, and everyone upgrades. We're all paying for it. There's got to be a way around that, and they've already announced reduced or no tariffs on electronics. From an investor's perspective, I'd prefer Apple keep the status quo. They've optimized their supply chain for price and efficiency. ANNA Speaking of all this volatility, let's talk about volatility itself. The VIX index is something you look at regularly. As we discussed last time, it's updated throughout the day, right? BRUCE Correct. ANNA The VIX is referred to as the 'Fear Gauge' or 'Panic Index' on Wall Street. On April 7th, it spiked to 60.13. For perspective, during the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis, it reached 59.89, and during the COVID market panic in March 2020, it hit around 53–54. So this spike topped those major events. What are your thoughts? BRUCE It's the uncertainty—and how dramatically it happened. Portfolios needed to be readjusted to reduce risk, and when they do that, they use options. The volatility of those options spiked. We talked last month about 30 being a high level. We came into the April 2nd tariff announcement at 22. It jumped over 30 and then hit 60. ANNA Unreal. And when that goes up, typically the market goes down, right? BRUCE For the most part. You don't usually have high volatility and a calm, steadily rising market. ANNA We also mentioned the $10 trillion swing in the market over just 10 days. Even if it corrects, someone still sold in that dip—and someone else bought. So there's a change in ownership, and people are getting hurt. That's real, right? BRUCE Absolutely. If you held your stock, it dropped, and you sold—someone else now owns it. If it goes back up, they gain, and you don't. You sold and you lost. ANNA As a fund manager, these must be interesting times. Do you adapt your strategy? BRUCE We don't completely change our strategy, but we become more cautious. We reduce position sizing. If we normally hold 2.5% in a company, we might cut it to 1.5% or even 1.25%. During that first volatile week, we weren't adding anything new. Once the volatility dropped after the pause was announced, we saw some opportunities and started picking away at them. ANNA That's impressive. One thing we also saw—and we'll talk about gold and the U.S. dollar next—was the fear surrounding U.S. Treasury bills. We haven't seen that in a very long time. It's one of the safest havens globally, and this exodus shows a lot about investor sentiment. BRUCE Historically, when stock markets—especially the U.S.—go down, the U.S. dollar and treasuries are bid up. They're considered safe, and the U.S. dollar is the reserve currency. Treasuries are even safer than cash in some cases and currently offer higher yields. But now we're seeing the opposite: stock market down, dollar down, and treasury prices down (which means yields up). That tells me foreigners are selling. They're selling stocks, converting dollars, and buying foreign currencies. They're also selling treasuries and repatriating capital. ANNA And once they pull that capital, they're not jumping back in overnight. BRUCE Exactly. It could have a long-term impact. A lot will depend on future policy. If the U.S. introduces stimulus—tariff resolutions, tax cuts, regulatory changes—the economy might take off, and investors could return. But these capital cycles tend to last. There's a lack of trust now in the U.S. due to the rapid policy shifts. Investors are saying, 'Let me take my capital back and wait.' ANNA I've heard people close to the administration say Trump genuinely believes tariffs are a great way to fund the government. So this may not be a tactic—it could be a long-term strategy. We'll see. I'm sure we'll be talking about it again in episode four. BRUCE Probably. Stay tuned to see what happens next month. ANNA Let's talk about gold prices—something we've followed since the start of the year. Tell us where that's at. BRUCE Gold has been one of the best-performing investments over the last year—up close to 40% in 12 months and about 25% year-to-date. People view it as a safe store of value. Some central banks are also buying. It's been a consistent bright spot during all the tariff-driven market volatility. ANNA And historically, gold has a negative correlation to the U.S. dollar. That's held up recently? BRUCE Yes. Gold performed even when the dollar was strong, but now the dollar has dropped 10% from its high, and gold is accelerating again. If you're a gold investor, this is a great time. ANNA Here's what excites me—maybe I'm jumping ahead—but if gold stays at these levels, gold projects could become profitable. That might spark M&A activity. Can you expand on that? BRUCE Absolutely. Gold is around $3,200 an ounce. The best mines might have operating costs as low as $600–$700 per ounce. Average producers tend to be in the $1,200–$1,800 range. At current prices, they're making solid margins. That means projects that weren't viable at $1,000–$1,500 are now economic, even those approaching $2,000 per ounce in cost. These projects will start to move forward. But building a mine takes time due to regulation and permitting. So for majors, it's often cheaper to buy than build. That's why we could see a wave of acquisitions instead of new development. BRUCE I suspect that if gold stays up here like it is, you'll start to see some of those companies get picked off—especially given that gold's had a fairly strong move, but you haven't seen the producers rise the same amount you would've expected. A lot of the mining stocks aren't back to their highs, even those we saw in 2020 or 2021. ANNA Even though gold is hitting record highs. BRUCE Right. Hopefully that's what we start to see. Hopefully it becomes reflective, and hopefully there's a trickle-down that moves into the exploration world—giving those companies the ability to raise more capital and advance their projects. Usually it eventually gets there. That's my hope for all of them. ANNA Let's talk about something you've brought up a lot over the years we've been doing this—something people don't always think about. You watch investor sentiment closely, but you also wanted to talk about business sentiment. What's going on there? BRUCE With what's happened in the market sell-off, sentiment has really swung from one extreme to the other. We track a few different sentiment indicators. For investor sentiment, we look at the American Association of Individual Investors. They do a weekly review and interview 1,000 people to ask whether they're bullish or bearish on the market. We've actually seen net bears in that survey for the last several weeks, which is interesting. That typically only shows up in very negative markets. Another key indicator we follow is the National Association of Active Investment Managers in the U.S. They report weekly on how fully invested their members are. In normal markets, they usually sit around 80–90%. Under conditions of high volatility, that number drops. Right now, it's around 50%. If you go back to the 2022 lows or COVID lows, that range was between 30–50%, and we're back there again now. Sentiment has really pulled back into negative territory quickly. While there's going to be volatility around policy, historically when sentiment hits these levels, it presents longer-term opportunities. If you're a 3–5 year investor, you'll probably look back and say, 'That was a fantastic time to pick something up.' ANNA And on the business sentiment side? BRUCE That's really interesting too. The National Federation of Independent Business in the U.S. surveys its members. After President Trump was elected, we saw one of the fastest spikes in sentiment in history—only a few other times have we seen a similar rate of ascent. Now, that has reversed. It's dropping off. Consumer sentiment has also dropped significantly. The last reading before this show was 50.8. In 2022, it dropped to 50. In 2008 and during COVID, it wasn't even that low. That tells us consumers are scared. ANNA And for all the talk about this benefiting consumers, people are looking at their everyday goods and realizing those prices may go up 10–20%. That's not comforting after an extended period of inflation. BRUCE Right, and there's also a lot of confusion for consumers. If someone needs to buy a car or a new computer right now, they don't know how tariffs are going to affect their purchasing power. It's changing constantly. ANNA And I don't think many consumers even realize they're the ones paying. The way it's positioned by the U.S. government makes it sound like the producer pays, but it's actually the country slapping a tax on the product. Unless the manufacturer or a middleman absorbs that cost, the consumer pays it. BRUCE Exactly. I saw an article recently about government-subsidized relief being introduced in the UK to help offset those costs. If we start seeing that elsewhere, it could become just as painful in different ways. ANNA Let's shift gears. By the time this airs—and before we speak again—we could have a new Prime Minister. Or we might have the same one. BRUCE Right. We're going back to the polls on April 28th. ANNA So it'll be interesting to see what happens. Whatever the outcome, make sure to get out there and vote. It's really important. BRUCE Absolutely—no matter who you're voting for, just vote. ANNA Let's talk about some CSE news. It's been an interesting month in the markets, but a fantastic one at the CSE. One of the big developments is access to Interactive Brokers. This platform has become a global powerhouse—used by firms like CommSec in Australia, which represents 74% of retail trading there. Now, all CSE-listed securities will be available globally through Interactive Brokers. This is a huge leap forward in access for CSE issuers and international investors. Thank you to our senior management team for pushing this across the finish line, and thank you to Interactive Brokers. We're very excited about this. We also had some exciting new listings. On Friday, April 11th, SNDL Inc. joined the CSE. They're one of the largest vertically integrated cannabis companies in Canada and the largest private-sector liquor and cannabis retailer in the country. Their retail presence includes major banners like Wine and Beyond, Liquor Depot, Value Buds, and Spiritleaf. Their cannabis brands include Top Leaf, Contraband, Palmetto, Bond, Jack Lab, and No Future, among others. They're also active in strategic investing across the North American cannabis space. BRUCE It gives them access to capital. They've been acquisitive in the past and made lots of strategic moves. ANNA Exactly. The companies that have survived in this space are impressive—strong fundamentals, experienced teams, and aggressive but smart growth strategies. Congratulations to them. We're excited to have them with us. Another new listing is Lithos Group. They're active in clean tech and mining, with patented aqua technology for lithium extraction—sustainable and chemical-free. We haven't talked about lithium in a while, and it's still a well-loved space in the junior markets. Finally, I want to mention Yukon Metals. They closed a $10 million financing and now have over $17 million in the bank to fuel their drill campaigns across the Star River, Arizona, and Birch properties. This was co-led by CoreMark Securities and Canaccord Genuity—big, impactful names. What are your thoughts? BRUCE We're already starting to see money flow into the sector. That's a great example. As returns grow in large-cap stocks, it filters down. People start looking for the next opportunity. ANNA Congratulations to their team—it's a great milestone. As we move into next month, Bruce, what should we be keeping an eye on? BRUCE Unfortunately, it's going to be all about U.S. policy. That'll be the big one. Once we get clarity, we'll start to see leadership shifts—when there's a correction like this, new sector leaders often emerge. ANNA Absolutely. Always a pleasure, Bruce. I have a feeling our agenda may not change much next month—but we'll see. Thank you again. Looking forward to our next chat. BRUCE Thanks. Always great to be here. This is third-party provided content, please see full disclaimer here.
