Bulls and Bears: Where Markets Stand Post-Election

The Market Online

15-05-2025

The Market This Month – Episode 4
Title: Bulls and Bears: Where Markets Stand Post-Election
Episode 4 Intro: The Canadian Securities Exchange presents your go-to source for trends in junior and small cap markets each month. Join host Anna Seren and financial expert Bruce Campbell in partnership with Stockhouse. Welcome to episode four of the Market This month you're joining us in May of 2025 in the 2025 Canadian federal election held on April 28th.
ANNA
Mark Carney's Liberal Party secured a fourth consecutive term, forming a minority government with 169 seats, just three short of a majority. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, won 145 seats. Carney, a former central banker, also won his seat in Nepean, Ottawa. The Liberals' victory was attributed in part to public concern over U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies and annexation rhetoric, which contrasted with Carney's emphasis on Canadian sovereignty and economic stability.
Following the election, Carney met with President Trump in a tense Oval Office meeting, where he firmly rejected Trump's suggestion of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state, stating 'Canada is not for sale.' The meeting highlighted ongoing tensions over trade and national sovereignty, with both leaders acknowledging the importance of continued dialogue despite their differences.
Carney faces pressure to renegotiate a trade deal that supports jobs, especially in auto and resources—two sectors hit hard by U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, his energy platform emphasizes clean energy expansion, streamlined project approvals, and reduced reliance on the U.S., though analysts caution that meaningful impact could take years to materialize.
Turning to our markets, we now try to assess—is this a bull market, bear market, or something in between? After the pullback from February highs to April lows, we're seeing signs of consolidation. But there's a technical signal flashing that has market watchers buzzing—the Breadth Thrust Indicator. We'll also dig into the safe haven debate: gold versus Bitcoin.
Both assets are hovering near record highs. But which is better equipped for inflation, recession, or geopolitical tensions? Gold remains the traditional go-to, while Bitcoin continues to push boundaries with institutional interest and digital native adoption. As uncertainty looms, choosing your hedge wisely matters more than ever.
As we navigate this evolving landscape—post-election shifts, global policy pressures, and volatile sentiment across sectors—one thing is clear: understanding market signals, sector exposure, and long-term trends is more important than ever. Hi, my name is Anna Serin, and I'm Director of Listings Development with the Canadian Securities Exchange.
You're joining us here for episode four of The Market This Month. I'm joined by none other than Bruce Campbell with Stone Castle Investment Management. Thank you for joining me, Bruce.
BRUCE
It's awesome to be back.
ANNA
It is great to have you back here in Vancouver. We've had a fantastic spring so far—in weather, anyway.
BRUCE
Yes, absolutely.
ANNA
Okay, we have a lot to unpack today. We are speaking in May of 2025. This is episode four of The Market This Month, and we are in a post-election world—not post-apocalyptic, but post-election. So let's talk about that. We covered the election results in the intro. Hopefully all Canadian citizens know the results by now. Do you have any commentary on how the Liberal Party remaining in power might impact the market?
BRUCE
Yeah, the concern was what would happen and how that might impact investment markets, and we really didn't see much impact at all. So, the Canadian dollar was still fairly stable. Canadian markets were still fairly stable. Canadian bond rates were still fairly stable. So from that perspective, it really just came and went, and it didn't have a large impact on investing immediately. Now, this is where things are going to change going forward. What happens with productivity, what happens with unlocking resources—how will this all transpire over the next few years?
ANNA
Maybe another way of looking at it is that the rubber needs to hit the road now. There's been dialogue. I feel like we've been in this election mode for much longer than we were actually in it because we knew that Trudeau was going to be stepping down, we knew that Carney was going to be stepping in, and then we knew this election would happen. So we've been in this mode for a while. Do you think maybe the markets didn't react as much as we thought they might because there's a little bit of investor exhaustion—like reacting to it might be more than they're able to do anymore?
BRUCE
It could be exhaustion—not from the election itself, but just overall market exhaustion. There's been so much dynamic around the news flow and how that impacts markets. The other thing that could have played into this is that, while there were lots of polls flipping back and forth, from when Trudeau originally stepped down and the Conservatives had a big lead, it became apparent closer to election day that the Liberals were leading. So it wasn't a surprise. I think markets usually can price in an outcome, but when they're surprised, that's when you tend to see moves.
ANNA
That makes sense. Some of the things Carney has talked about implementing will take a little time to see how they play out and impact the market. So we'll pay attention to that. Okay—are we in a bull market or a bear market, Bruce?
BRUCE
We're unfortunately in kind of a no-man's land. There are lots of traditional metrics that are simple and people like to use—like the 200-day moving average. If the market is above the 200-day moving average or below it. In Canada, we are above that. By no means does that define a bull or bear market, but it's certainly positive—or at least not negative. In the U.S., we dropped way down and came back up to that level, and we've been gravitating around it for the last few weeks.
What's concerning is the leadership. We saw technology leading before the correction. Now that's rotated to consumer staples, utilities, and financials. Financials are a good sign, but typically when staples and utilities lead, investors are concerned. So we have a bit of a barbell situation, and we're in this no-man's land—market purgatory, maybe.
ANNA
Or perhaps we've come through earnings? By the time this is broadcast, we'll be finished with most earnings.
BRUCE
And they've been fairly good for the most part. Obviously, one concern is tariffs and what impact those will have. We still won't know that for a while. So it's hard to say if we're in a new bull market, if we've just seen a correction, or if we're going to consolidate and go sideways. Only time will tell.
ANNA
Right. So we're not exactly sure where we're at. Hopefully it's a bull market. That's my hope for all of us. Okay, let's talk about a technical signal you follow—the Breadth Thrust Indicator.
BRUCE
Yes.
ANNA
I'm going to give a little background. The Breadth Thrust Indicator is a rarely triggered technical measure of market momentum. It was developed by fund manager Martin Zweig. It occurs when the 10-day moving average of advancing stocks versus total stocks on an exchange moves from below 40% to above 61.5% within 10 trading days. It's considered an extremely bullish sign. Since the inception of the S&P 500 in 1957, this signal has occurred only 16 times and has been 100% accurate in identifying the start of a new bull market. So what are we seeing now?
BRUCE
We've seen it trigger—it met the criteria. And every time this happens, people throw cold water on it—saying why it won't work this time, why this time is different. Those are the most dangerous words in investing: 'This time it's different.' But we know it has triggered.
Some interesting stats have come out—Zweig looked at the data from 1957 onward, but others have gone further back, to the 1920s and '30s, and found that it didn't work 100% of the time. When it didn't, it was because we were heading into a recession or a depression—particularly during the 1929–1940 period. That's the one unknown: are we heading into something like that?
Most people say we might see a recession but not a depression. So right now, we've got this positive signal. It doesn't guarantee anything, but when we combine it with other indicators, it's good to keep in mind. If things continue to improve, we're likely on the launchpad for something really strong.
ANNA
There do seem to be a few indicators right now suggesting the possibility of a market rally.
BRUCE
Yeah. The market has bottomed so far and hasn't retested those lows. It's regained about 50% of the drop from high to low, though it hasn't quite hit the 200-day moving average. What we want to see is investor appetite shift toward higher-growth companies rather than the defensive names like staples and utilities.
We've seen this barbell effect before—2019 was an example, where both tech and utilities led. That was an interesting year. Maybe we see that again, but we need leadership. Financials are starting to come through—it'd be great to also see leadership from industrials, mining, or even technology.
ANNA
On that note—the one elephant in the room we haven't talked about yet in episode four is tariffs. It feels like the yo-yo effect is slowing. Tariffs are still here, but the back and forth seems to be easing. Is that helping the market settle?
BRUCE
Yes. Like those marbles on a string, the energy is wearing down. The swings are getting smaller. I don't think tariffs will be removed entirely, but they'll probably get scaled back. The market has started to recognize that and is pricing it in. The surprises are what cause the big market movements, and it seems like that's starting to fade.
ANNA
That's good for now. I guess we'll find out in the coming quarters how that's affecting company performance.
BRUCE
One big thing we've seen impacted is consumer sentiment. That's because of the uneasiness around tariffs. But interestingly, many studies show that when consumer sentiment is high, markets don't tend to do well over the following 12 to 24 months.
BRUCE
Right. And when consumer sentiment is low, markets do tend to perform very well because it's all washed out. Every time is unique, but human emotion tends to be fairly consistent. We've just seen a very low reading for consumer sentiment, so it'll be interesting to see what happens going forward.
ANNA
And it's just one more piece to add to all the others when we look at the feedback and the data together. When you talk about investor sentiment—even for me personally—when the markets are good, I don't examine my portfolio as closely as when they're bad.
BRUCE
Yeah.
ANNA
So maybe just the human nature component is that when there's a lot of uncertainty in the markets, we might pay more attention. Maybe we become more active investors, and maybe that leads to better markets. Perhaps.
ANNA
Okay, let's talk about gold and the U.S. dollar. The two are having a moment—tell us what's happening.
BRUCE
We've talked a lot about gold, and it's bumping up against new highs right now. What's interesting is the correlation. The U.S. dollar and gold have been moving in almost perfect opposite directions. If the U.S. dollar goes up, gold goes down—and vice versa. Historically, that relationship has been fairly steady, but over the last 90 days it's become really tight—around a -0.95 correlation.
We didn't see that as much when gold was moving up over the last 18 months. During that time, there were periods when both gold and the dollar moved up—maybe not daily, but on a weekly or monthly basis. So it's something to watch because the two are currently trading inversely with a high level of correlation.
ANNA
Interesting. I guess my next question is: how does Bitcoin relate to all of this?
BRUCE
Lots of people refer to Bitcoin as the 'new gold' or a different kind of store of value. I don't think it's quite the same. I see gold as a currency, and it's clearly acting like one right now, given how it's behaving relative to the U.S. dollar. Bitcoin is also hitting new highs. When you look at the weight of evidence—like the Breadth Thrust indicator, the bull market signals—and now you see a risk asset like Bitcoin pushing toward all-time highs, it's something you need to pay attention to.
ANNA
Bitcoin's been around long enough now that you've got to imagine it will start getting treated as a fiat currency. There's a generation that might only know it as a normal currency. Do you think that will continue to add value and weight to it?
BRUCE
Potentially. What we have seen is it's becoming more institutionalized. Ten years ago, if a portfolio manager wanted to hold Bitcoin, it was extremely difficult. They had to set up a wallet, and custody was uncertain because traditional custodians wouldn't support it. Now, there are multiple ETFs across various cryptocurrencies. You can buy it, and five minutes later, if you want to sell it, you can. That's a big change.
Institutions will likely continue to include Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies in their portfolios. Capital likes to flow where there's the least resistance, and now it's easier than ever to access crypto.
ANNA
Let's talk on a sector level. Some industries that were leading are no longer leading, and new sectors are emerging. What are you seeing?
BRUCE
Any time we go through a correction, the sector that led going in usually doesn't lead coming out—and that's what we're seeing now. Technology has been the strong leader for the last 18 months. There was a lot of interest in AI, and that hasn't gone away, but now valuations are starting to come into perspective. We've seen a bit of a growth-to-value shift.
Now we're seeing other sectors leading. Financials, for example, are starting to accelerate, which is a good sign. We haven't seen a lot from energy, likely because oil prices haven't been that high. But it's a sector to watch. Historically, as global economic activity picks up, energy demand increases, which pushes prices higher. Before the tariffs, many economies were accelerating. Whether that continues is what the market is nervous about.
ANNA
Okay, we'll watch that for sure. Now it's time for my favourite part of the show—CSC-listed issuer news. We have some exciting developments from the past month. A newly listed company joined us in early May—McFarlane Lake Mining Limited. They came over to the CSE from Cboe Canada.
The company is advancing a portfolio of gold exploration projects, including the past-producing McMillan and Mongowin properties near Sudbury; West Hawk Lake and High Lake near the Ontario-Manitoba border; and the Michaud-Monroe property along the Golden Highway east of Timmins. CEO Mark Reavisal said the move to the CSE—home to over 350 mining and exploration issuers—aligns with their growth strategy and increases investor visibility.
We're very excited to have them. We love seeing local Canadian projects backed by strong teams. Welcome, McFarlane, and thank you for joining the CSE family.
Beyond Oil—another company I wanted to mention—has been with us for a while. They're a food-tech innovator focused on reducing health risks from fried foods and improving sustainability in commercial kitchens. They recently exercised $4.5 million in warrants.
They joined us two years ago at our inaugural Responsible Investment Summit. It's great to see what they've accomplished. What stood out to me in these market conditions is that not only did they exercise warrants, but they raised a significant amount of capital. What are your thoughts?
BRUCE
That stock has been performing really well. The company is executing and landing more deals. Those warrants were deep in the money, so investors chose to exercise them—which brings cash back to the company. It's also a return for the investors.
This is exactly how warrants are supposed to work. They're intended to reward early-stage investors who took additional risk. When warrants are exercised, not only does the money go directly to the company rather than just trading in the secondary market, but it also means those shareholders are increasing their stake—coming back in for a second round, essentially.
ANNA
So, good for them. They've obviously done a really great job to have that much support in the markets. I also wanted to mention Dragonfly. They're a drone technology firm. They just raised $3.6 million USD under their NASDAQ listing. I thought this was interesting because we're starting to see more and more drone companies coming to market. That technology is really starting to be implemented in many different ways.
We have some other companies coming to us with neat drone technology as well. But I also wanted to ask you—they're raising money in the U.S., and I was curious, with what's been going on in our current political framework, I know some of our issuers wonder: how do U.S. investors feel about investing in Canadian securities right now? What are your thoughts?
BRUCE
It's definitely a vote of confidence. The fact that these U.S. investors stepped in and invested—and did so in U.S. dollars—is great to see.
ANNA
Absolutely. Well, congratulations to Dragonfly. And finally, I just wanted to mention King Global Ventures. They closed an oversubscribed private placement of $5.51 million. The proceeds will fund ongoing exploration and drilling at their Black Canyon Project in Arizona, which includes 213 contiguous concessions and 15 former operating mines—including the past-producing Howard Copper Mine. The company is focused on precious and base metals exploration across North America.
We continue to see these nice little exploration capital raises month by month. I know the markets have been tough in the junior and growth side, but we are seeing these nice little chunks getting raised. What are your thoughts on that? Is this specialized money? Where is this coming from?
BRUCE
Well, the taps haven't been fully turned on. But in a case like this—where they have old past-producing mines that became uneconomic at some point due to costs and metal prices—you're now seeing metal prices rise, and those projects become economic again. You can turn those lights back on.
This has been the story of the last couple of years—not so much pure exploration, where you're digging to try and find something—but rather, 'Hey, we know there's something there. We just want to restart it and get it producing cash flow. We just need a bit of money to get there, and then we'll have the cash.'
ANNA
That's amazing. Well, congratulations to all of those CSE issuers on doing so well.
Okay, Bruce, before we talk again next month, what should we be thinking about in the markets?
BRUCE
Lots to watch. We've talked about the bigger picture—whether we're in a bull or bear market. Hopefully, we get some clarity on that direction. Along with that comes clarity on which sectors will be leading and where the opportunities lie over the next 6, 12, or 24 months.
ANNA
Alright, well, I look forward to chatting with you again in a month. Thank you all for joining us for episode four of The Market This Month . We'll be back in June for episode five. We've got the Summit on Responsible Investment coming up—we'll be in your hometown of Kelowna. For anyone local, please come and join us. All the information can be found on our website.
We'll also be releasing content all summer long, highlighting our issuers in the space, so stay tuned. If you go to our YouTube page, feel free to hit subscribe —and we'll let you know when new content goes live on CSE TV.
Thank you again for joining us, Bruce. I look forward to chatting next month.
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