Latest news with #ThePersonalView
The South African
3 days ago
- Business
- The South African
Warren Hammond's Personal View: Ancient frameworks, modern truths
We are not just witnessing volatility; we are living through a rare inflexion point. Beneath the swirl of macro chaos and geopolitical fragmentation lies something deeper. This reflection draws from the Ramayana not as mythology, but as symbolic architecture, offering clarity and perspective for those navigating today's disorientating world. This article from The Personal View is a rare diversion, not just for investors, but for anyone who feels fortunate to be alive in this era of structural overhaul, which vanquishes the status quo. It's written for all who appreciate and understand the modern world through the lens of ancient wisdom, and who sense that beneath today's upheaval, something profound is unfolding. ' May you live in interesting times .' Often called a Chinese proverb, whether it's a curse or a blessing depends on your vantage point. We are living through extraordinary dislocation, frequently discussed and forecast within The Personal View since 2016. A time of global, political, economic, ideological, environmental, and technological forces converging at once. Yet beneath this disruption lies something deeper. This marks a rare, reflective moment. While The Personal View focuses on politically informed investment and alpha-generating insights, this article reveals a personal fascination: how ancient wisdom frames modern reality. The Ramayana offers an enduring archetype: the battle between Rama and Ravana. But this is more than mythology, it's a symbolic clash: Rama, the embodiment of Dharma, order, discipline, right action. Ravana, the force of Adharma, ego, distortion, intoxicated power. Their war plays out not just in ancient texts, but in markets, governments, and within us all. Dharma isn't just virtue, it's timing, alignment, inner truth. Adharma isn't just evil; it's imbalance, fragmentation, and violation of law. Unchecked Adharma brings a crisis. The maelstrom becomes the correction. Power is unmoored from principle. Truth is sacrificed for expediency. Markets mirror deeper disorder. Yet in chaos, clarity returns, if we know how to look. Dharma demands action. Power without ethics collapses. The outer war mirrors the inner one. The storm is a threshold, not an end. The ancients didn't just tell stories. They encoded truths about collapse, leadership, rebalancing, and the return of principle. These truths are timeless, but they feel urgent now. ' Where there is Dharma, there is victory .' – Yato Dharma Tato Jayah (Mahabharata) How do you see ancient wisdom shaping today's world challenges? Share your thoughts and join the discussion below! Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1 Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
The South African
5 days ago
- Business
- The South African
The Personal View: The Ceasefire That Isn't - August's Rising Risk
In my July article, 'Fragile Highs – July Is Vulnerable', I explicitly warned that what was being publicly described as a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was, in reality, a fragile pause, not a sustainable peace. Lifting the illusory curtain of calm revealed, as warned, that while direct conflict has been avoided, indirect hostilities have intensified. Military operations resumed across Gaza and Syria, reflecting a regional strategy of containment and escalation. Both flashpoints highlight ongoing efforts to counter regional influence through indirect conflict dynamics, without triggering confrontation. Since April, The Personal View has issued multiple warnings, forecasting geopolitical instability through June and July: Tension between Iran and Israel The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war Renewed US-China friction Cyber and energy vulnerabilities That outlook is now materialising. Such periods don't just bring volatility; they cause gridlock. Delays, diplomatic bottlenecks, and miscommunication dominate. For governments and institutions, this is dangerous: decision fatigue and rising escalation risk. Frustration will define August. For geopolitical actors, from Washington and Tehran to Moscow, Brussels, and Beijing, this is a month of diminishing patience and rising constraints. Tactical frustration risks strategic overreach. While history never repeats perfectly, past moments of institutional strain offer sobering lessons: The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, brinkmanship and communication breakdown The 1951 Korean War escalation, regional conflict turned Cold War flashpoint WWII's turning points, miscalculations that irreversibly shifted the global order Not inevitable, each triggered by distrust, delay, and frustration. Today carries similar hallmarks. What we are witnessing is not resolution, it is redirection. The Iran–Israel conflict hasn't ended; it has simply shifted form. Beneath the surface, tensions remain elevated. August brings rising risk. Investors should position accordingly: Hedge exposures Reduce fragility Prepare for volatility spikes Frustration fuels miscalculation. And August is built for both. What are your thoughts on August's rising geopolitical risks and the fragile ceasefire? Share your views below! Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1 Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us
The South African
16-07-2025
- Business
- The South African
Warren Hammond's Personal View: India 2035 - global tech leader, emerging superpower
Since 2016, The Personal View has consistently championed India's rise, not as a short-term trade but as a long-term thesis rooted in demographics, digitisation, and institutional transformation. Now, in 2025, that thesis enters its most consequential phase. Tech dominance ahead. India is evolving from a technology support hub to a global tech architect designing, manufacturing, and exporting digital systems, while asserting itself more confidently in regional geopolitics. Lead global tech manufacturing, including semiconductors, smart devices, and advanced electronics Export digital infrastructure at scale, including payments, ID systems, and public data layers Expand in AI, defense, and space technologies Pivot to economic leadership across Asia and beyond Assert itself militarily, especially around border tensions with China and Pakistan Face internal pressure around food prices, inflation, and economic inclusion India's path to becoming the world's third-largest economy by around 2028 is increasingly visible. But the first half of this transition will be defined by economic unevenness, rising prices and public pressure on affordability and quality of life. Nationalist rhetoric may start to give way to demands for broader prosperity. At the same time, healthcare is improving, and water security is emerging as a key structural risk, especially as climate volatility intensifies. These aren't just policy issues; they're investment signals. Mid-cap tech & semis, core manufacturing and design names Defense & dual-use tech: satellites, drones, cyber systems Digital banks & rural fintech, scalable financial inclusion Export-oriented SaaS & IP-rich small caps Water security, infrastructure & healthcare innovators Passive exposure through $INDA or $SMIN offers a starting point, but the real alpha lies in structural thematics and bottom-up allocation. To gain pure-play exposure to India's technology sector, still underrepresented in global ETF offerings, investors can construct a targeted mini-basket of leading Indian IT firms. Key names include Infosys (INFY) and Wipro (WIT), both of which trade as ADRs on U.S. exchanges, while Tata Consultancy Services ( Tech Mahindra ( and HCL Technologies ( are accessible via Indian markets. Together, these firms represent the core of India's globally competitive digital and software services industry, offering a passive yet precise entry point into the country's tech ascent. Look to the next 7–10 years to validate this forecast. India will lead global tech, and its equity market will reflect this innovation and technological dominance. Do you believe India is on track to become a global tech superpower by 2035? Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1 Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
The South African
14-07-2025
- Business
- The South African
Warren Hammond's Personal View: Fragile highs
On 17 March 2025, The Personal View published: 'Positioning for the Market Turmoil Ahead, 2025-2028.' That article opened with this warning: 'The March-June 2025 period will bring extreme market volatility, driven by geopolitical conflicts, economic instability, and shifting power dynamics. Immediate shocks are severe, while long-term consequences shape financial markets, trade flows, and capital allocation into 2028.' That foresight was swiftly validated. By April, global markets were reeling: the VIX surged, geopolitics flared, and equities sold off aggressively as investor confidence faltered. A rearmament cycle is driving global defence spending higher Middle East instability, energy insecurity, and oil supply disruption; warning of Iran-Israel and Ukraine-Russia conflict The rise of cyberattacks and surveillance infrastructure as dominant investment themes A reiteration to accumulate gold, first recommended on 8 March 2021 Now, markets are near record highs, but complacency is visible, momentum is fading, and liquidity is thinning. July is fragile. The next wave of volatility is nearing. Headline-driven shocks from geopolitical, regulatory, or domestic unrest Potential for flash crashes or algorithmic dislocations Cyberattacks or infrastructure disruptions that unsettle sentiment A breakdown in leadership or sentiment sparking fear-based trading Overstretched valuations lacking support It's time to rebuild protection, reduce fragility, and prepare for downside risk. Downside Protection: Portfolio Insurance on the S&P 500 For global investors with equity exposure, especially those fully allocated, now is the time to consider derivative trades to hedge a sharp S&P 500 drawdown. Put Spread Collar Buy a near-the-money put, sell a deeper one, and finance with an OTM call. A low-cost way to insure downside while capping upside. Zero-Cost Put Spread Buy a 3-5% OTM put and sell a 7-10% OTM put for limited-cost protection against moderate declines. VIX Call Options Purchasing near-term VIX calls (2-4 weeks out) helps hedge tail risk, as volatility typically spikes during equity stress. SPX Ratio Put Spread Buy one ATM put and sell two or more deeper OTM puts. Lower cost, but introduces risk below a second threshold, is useful in deep sell-offs. These can be tailored to other global indices (Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, Nikkei, JSE Top 40, etc.) correlated with U.S. equity direction. Conclusion: The market may look strong on the surface, but it's skating on thin ice. July is tactically vulnerable. Volatility returns when least expected. Now is the time to position defensively, protect gains, and prepare for a sharp risk repricing. Have you started adjusting your investment strategy in anticipation of renewed volatility? Share your thoughts, questions, or alternative strategies in the comments below. Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1 Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
The South African
19-06-2025
- Business
- The South African
Warren Hammond's Personal View: Geopolitical risk surges as April and June warnings unfold
Acts of Violence – The World Is on Edge This Summer. Image: LinkedIn/warren-hammond Home » Warren Hammond's Personal View: Geopolitical risk surges as April and June warnings unfold Acts of Violence – The World Is on Edge This Summer. Image: LinkedIn/warren-hammond On 2nd June, I published a note entitled 'The Personal View: Acts of Violence – The World Is On Edge This Summer.' In it, I warned: 'June and July 2025 will shape up to be two of the most geopolitically intense, heated, combustible months in recent memory… not defined by a single headline, but by a drumbeat of destabilising, violent, and politically consequential events.' This warning is reiterated. All June and all July will see persistent and intense acts of violence, terror, war, and conflict. Since the warning was issued on 2nd June, we've witnessed: – Israeli airstrikes on Iran's Natanz nuclear site– Iranian missile retaliation centred on Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Jerusalem– Waves of rocket fire in Gaza and southern Lebanon– A mass shooting in Graz, Austria– Riots in Ballymena, Northern Ireland– India–India-Pakistan tensions reignited with border clashes and terror threats– A firebomb attack in Colorado– Casualties in Kherson, Ukraine, from Russian drone strikes– Rising tensions on the Kyrgyz–Tajik border – The UN confirming 118+ attacks on schools, hospitals, and civilian infrastructure globally Back in mid-April, I published 'The Personal View: The Thucydides Trap, War Cometh.' I stated: 'A rising tide of systemic confrontation is unfolding… This is the Thucydidean Trap, when a rising power threatens an established one, and miscalculation often leads to escalation.' In both notes, I flagged the geopolitical risk escalation and identified the market implications: – Exposure to energy security risk and oil-sensitive names – Tactical positioning away from travel, tourism, shipping, and logistics These weren't just warnings. They were calls to act. Markets are still mispricing the persistent asymmetric volatility ahead. Entering March 2025, my note, 'The Personal View: How to Position Your Portfolio for the Market Turmoil Ahead (2025–2028),' explicitly forecasted a wave of market volatility tied to tariff wars, leadership failure, military escalation, oil shocks, and cyber threats, including the unfolding Iran conflict. This was not a reaction; it was anticipation. The note forecast persistent, structural volatility through 2028. This same framework guided my early February 2020 short call ahead of the COVID crash, and my April 6, 2020, pivot to go long the S&P 500 with a multi-year target of $8,500, a call made amid panic, volatility, and disbelief. The fuse has been lit. June and July 2025 will continue to see the world on fire.. Share your thoughts in the comments below. How are you preparing for this volatile period? Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1 Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
