01-04-2025
Are We The People Doomed?
The Saurian Age. (Photo by The)
Is humanity headed for extinction? Is mankind doomed to share the fate of the dodo bird and dinosaurs?
What may ultimately do us in isn't a meteor, a nuclear holocaust or a superpandemic—and understand, the end won't be coming anytime soon. Nonetheless, man might actually become the first species on earth to extinguish itself. Birth rates around the world are falling and have been for decades. Poor, developing and rich nations are all experiencing this phenomenon.
What demographers call the 'total fertility rate' is the average number of births per woman. To keep a population stable, the so-called replacement rate is 2.1 babies per woman. Anything above that means the population ex- pands, as it has done for all of our history, despite occasional catastrophes such as the bubonic plague in the mid-1300s. If the replacement rate falls below 2.1, however, the population will eventually contract, which is where the world is now headed. In fact, we may have already crossed that line.
The number of people worldwide today is over 8.2 billion and still growing. However, the U.N. estimates that the global population will peak at 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s and then start to decline. But the shrinkage may start sooner, as in recent years demographers have repeatedly had to revise their estimates downward.
The birth dearth is most pronounced in advanced economies, where the total fertility rate is under 1.5. In South Korea it's down to an ugly 0.7. In Japan last year the number of babies born fell to a record low: Two people died for every baby born. Italy's population could disappear early in the next century. The U.S. long defied this trend, but not anymore. We're at a record low of 1.6. Among the richer countries, only Israel is experiencing a robust number of births.
Governments are noticing the fall in birth rates and are alarmed. What a change!
Until recently, the conventional worry was that there were too many people. In 1798, when there were barely 1 billion people on the planet, Thomas Malthus wrote a book that became a sensation. He warned that population growth always ends up outpacing the food supply; therefore, humanity could never experience a sustained rise in its standard of living.
The world's population has grown more than eightfold since Malthus' tract—and general living standards even more so. A little more than two centuries ago, 90% of humanity lived in dire poverty, which is defined in today's money as $2.15 a day. Now the population living in dire poverty is less than 10%. In 1800 almost half of children didn't make it to their fifth birthday. Today, globally, 96 out of 100 children live past age 5.
Despite this, the Malthusian mentality has predominated. In 1968 a Stanford professor, Paul Ehrlich, wrote a bestseller predicting that a horrific global famine would soon be upon us. So much for that dire prophecy. Today, numerous countries want their populations to grow. But government efforts to increase birth rates through tax incentives, direct payments or advertising campaigns have largely failed.
Why this slow-motion baby bust? Experts cite the costs in time and living expenses as inhibitors. Others posit that another factor at work may be a spiritual crisis—that is, pessimism about the future. Whatever the reasons, it looks like for the first time, the number of us inhabiting the planet will be going down.
