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CBC
13-04-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Poll of Sask. voters has Conservatives maintaining strong support, but Liberals gaining ground
Social Sharing A new poll of Saskatchewan voters shows growing support for federal Liberals in Saskatoon and Regina — enough to make some races competitive — but Conservative support remains high across the province. "That the Liberals are really neck and neck with the Conservatives in the two big cities is a bit of a surprise," said Éric Grenier, who runs CBC's election poll tracker and writes about elections at "If it holds until election day, if we see numbers similar to this, it's very possible the map of southern Saskatchewan won't be painted entirely blue." The poll was commissioned by the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association (SUMA) and conducted by Rubicon Strategy via an online survey of 747 Saskatchewan residents from April 5 to April 10. The data was weighted to reflect the age and gender distribution of the province. The margin of error for a random sample of this size is plus or minus four per cent. When asked who they would vote for if an election was held today, 38 per cent of people polled said they'd vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 25 per cent said they'd vote for the Liberal Party of Canada, according to results of the poll. Twenty per cent of voters were undecided when polled and 11 per cent of voters said they'd vote for the federal NDP. But in Saskatoon and Regina, Conservatives support is dropping among decided voters as Liberal support rises, with the parties within five points of each other among the poll's respondents. In Regina, 42 per cent of decided voters supported the Conservatives, compared to 37 per cent supporting the Liberals. Saskatoon's split was 43 per cent for the Conservatives and 38 per cent for the Liberals. Liberal Leader Mark Carney and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh both made campaign stops in Saskatoon on April 9, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has yet to stop in Saskatchewan this election. The swing in support, and the decline in NDP support, makes the Liberals more competitive in some ridings, but likely not enough to actually flip more than one seat, Grenier said. "The margin between the Conservatives and the Liberals [in previous polls] was so big that even with this kind of swing, the Liberals aren't necessarily the favourites to win anything other than Regina Wascana," he said. NDP support is at 11 per cent and 13 per cent in Regina and Saskatoon, respectively. The poll also asked voters about leader likeability, their top policy issues and Canada's trade war with the U.S. Rubicon Straregy partner David Herle said the numbers show the Liberals approaching the Conservatives in several Saskatchewan ridings. "I think that the Liberals would have a fighting chance on these numbers in Saskatoon West and Saskatoon-University, and then in Regina-Wascana and Regina-Lewvan," Herle said in an interview. The Canada-U.S. trade war and President Donald Trump's annexation threats are causing voters to switch support based on their view of party leaders, Herle said. When asked if it's more important to protect Canada from Trump or to ensure Liberals aren't elected, 54 per cent chose protecting Canada over defeating the Liberals (36 per cent), according to the SUMA poll. Herle said he isn't surprised to see Saskatchewan voters assess leaders on how they will handle Trump, because the provincial economy depends it. "It's not just how much Canada sells, it's what Saskatchewan sells," Herle said. "In addition to the energy, there's obviously uranium and potash, two extraordinarily critical products for the American marketplace. As much as any province in Canada, Saskatchewan holds the whip hand over Donald Trump." This is one of the rare federal election polls that specifically surveyed voters in the province. Usually, Saskatchewan is lumped together with Manitoba and sometimes Alberta, which is why SUMA commissioned the poll, SUMA president Randy Goulden said. "That may work for a national lens, but SUMA really wanted to identify Saskatchewan specific opinions and concerns," Goulden said. "We are hearing from the residents, and now confirmed in the survey, that the actions taken by President Trump and the realities that are coming forward with tariffs are concerning. "They're very concerned about the cost of living.… What that concern around affordability points out to SUMA is that we need to continue calling for economic growth." Goulden said eliminating inter-provincial trade barriers and finding new export markets for Saskatchewan goods are among SUMA's top policy issues. CBC's Poll Tracker, which compiles publicly available polls, has the Liberals taking 43.9 per cent of the vote country-wide compared to the Conservative's 37.5 per cent, with the NDP and Bloc Québécois facing significant seat losses. The Poll Tracker puts the odds of a Liberal majority at 85 per cent. Federal Liberals and NDP made a stop in Saskatoon. Will it help either party? 3 days ago Duration 2:31 Liberal Leader Mark Carney and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh made stops in Saskatoon on April 9. What was their messaging? Did it have any effect? Will Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre stop in Saskatchewan? University of Saskatchewan assistant professor of political studies Daniel Westlake joined the Morning Edition to discuss.
Yahoo
24-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
U.S. relationship likely top of mind for voters this federal election, poll analyst says
Liberals and Conservatives are running neck-in-neck to win the federal election April 28, says a poll analyst, who has identified three potentially close races in New Brunswick. Éric Grenier, who covers Canadian elections, politics and polls on pointed to Miramichi-Grand Lake, Fredericton-Oromocto and Saint John-Kennebecasis as ridings where the campaign could be tight. And while housing and health care are still important to voters, Grenier believes those issues could be overshadowed by the likely major issue of the campaign — the tariff threats and threats on Canadian sovereignty by U.S. President Donald Trump. With New Brunswick bordering the state of Maine, Grenier said he thinks that will put this issue top of mind for the province's voters. The parties led by Conservative Pierre Poilievre, left, and Liberal Mark Carney nationally. Grenier says voter perceptions of parties and party leaders are the most important factors in federal election outcomes. (Ethan Cairns/The Canadian Press) According to the CBC Poll Tracker, the polls suggest a significant lead in Atlantic Canada for the Liberals, at around 50 per cent. As of Sunday, when the election was called, the CBC Poll Tracker suggested a narrow lead nationally for the Liberals, with support from 37.5 per cent of those polled, over the Conservatives, with about 37.1 per cent. "As we've seen in past elections, the two most recent ones for example, the votes and the seats don't always line up," Grenier said in an interview with CBC News on Monday. "So despite the fact that we are looking at this pretty much tied race across the country, the Liberals are still the favourites to win the most seats." The CBC Poll Tracker includes every poll that is being published right now, Grenier said. The tracker is an accumulation of all polls, including those from pollsters, such as Abacus, Leger and Ipsos, among others. The shift in the polls since Justin Trudeau's resignatio as prime minister has been remarkable, Grenier said, and probably one of the biggest shifts in Canadian history. "We're looking at this enormous swing that has transformed the landscape from an inevitable Pierre Poilievre Conservative big majority government to now, what is essentially a toss-up race, where it's really either Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre's election to lose," he said. "It's just an incredible amount of change that we just normally do not see in Canadian politics." Local candidates may matter in close N.B. ridings Grenier said it's hard to predict where things will stand in the next five weeks, but if the election were held today, his personal projection would award the Liberals six seats in New Brunswick and the Conservatives four — the same outcome as the last election. Nationally, Grenier said, voter perceptions of the parties and party leaders are the most important factors in the outcome of elections, and the importance of local candidates will differ from riding to riding. While the name on the ballot may not be a decisive factor, it could make the difference in particularly close ridings. "I think that is all the more the case in New Brunswick and other areas of Atlantic Canada, where the attachment to that local candidate usually and traditionally has been a lot stronger than we see in other parts of Canada," said Grenier.
CBC
24-03-2025
- Politics
- CBC
U.S. relationship likely top of mind for voters this federal election, poll analyst says
CBC Poll Tracker suggests tight race between Liberals, Conservatives Liberals and Conservatives are running neck-in-neck to win the federal election April 28, says a poll analyst, who has identified three potentially close races in New Brunswick. Éric Grenier, who covers Canadian elections, politics and polls on pointed to Miramichi-Grand Lake, Fredericton-Oromocto and Saint John-Kennebecasis as ridings where the campaign could be tight. And while housing and health care are still important to voters, Grenier believes those issues could be overshadowed by the likely major issue of the campaign — the tariff threats and threats on Canadian sovereignty by U.S. President Donald Trump. With New Brunswick bordering the state of Maine, Grenier said he thinks that will put this issue top of mind for the province's voters. According to the CBC Poll Tracker, the polls suggest a significant lead in Atlantic Canada for the Liberals, at around 50 per cent. As of Sunday, when the election was called, the CBC Poll Tracker suggested a narrow lead nationally for the Liberals, with support from 37.5 per cent of those polled, over the Conservatives, with about 37.1 per cent. "As we've seen in past elections, the two most recent ones for example, the votes and the seats don't always line up," Grenier said in an interview with CBC News on Monday. "So despite the fact that we are looking at this pretty much tied race across the country, the Liberals are still the favourites to win the most seats." Embed | How seat projections have changed over time Open Full Embed in New Tab Loading external pages may require significantly more data usage than loading CBC Lite story pages. The CBC Poll Tracker includes every poll that is being published right now, Grenier said. The tracker is an accumulation of all polls, including those from pollsters, such as Abacus, Leger and Ipsos, among others. The shift in the polls since Justin Trudeau's resignatio as prime minister has been remarkable, Grenier said, and probably one of the biggest shifts in Canadian history. "We're looking at this enormous swing that has transformed the landscape from an inevitable Pierre Poilievre Conservative big majority government to now, what is essentially a toss-up race, where it's really either Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre's election to lose," he said. "It's just an incredible amount of change that we just normally do not see in Canadian politics." Local candidates may matter in close N.B. ridings Grenier said it's hard to predict where things will stand in the next five weeks, but if the election were held today, his personal projection would award the Liberals six seats in New Brunswick and the Conservatives four — the same outcome as the last election. Nationally, Grenier said, voter perceptions of the parties and party leaders are the most important factors in the outcome of elections, and the importance of local candidates will differ from riding to riding. While the name on the ballot may not be a decisive factor, it could make the difference in particularly close ridings. "I think that is all the more the case in New Brunswick and other areas of Atlantic Canada, where the attachment to that local candidate usually and traditionally has been a lot stronger than we see in other parts of Canada," said Grenier.
