U.S. relationship likely top of mind for voters this federal election, poll analyst says
Liberals and Conservatives are running neck-in-neck to win the federal election April 28, says a poll analyst, who has identified three potentially close races in New Brunswick.
Éric Grenier, who covers Canadian elections, politics and polls on TheWrit.ca, pointed to Miramichi-Grand Lake, Fredericton-Oromocto and Saint John-Kennebecasis as ridings where the campaign could be tight.
And while housing and health care are still important to voters, Grenier believes those issues could be overshadowed by the likely major issue of the campaign — the tariff threats and threats on Canadian sovereignty by U.S. President Donald Trump.
With New Brunswick bordering the state of Maine, Grenier said he thinks that will put this issue top of mind for the province's voters.
The parties led by Conservative Pierre Poilievre, left, and Liberal Mark Carney nationally. Grenier says voter perceptions of parties and party leaders are the most important factors in federal election outcomes. (Ethan Cairns/The Canadian Press)
According to the CBC Poll Tracker, the polls suggest a significant lead in Atlantic Canada for the Liberals, at around 50 per cent.
As of Sunday, when the election was called, the CBC Poll Tracker suggested a narrow lead nationally for the Liberals, with support from 37.5 per cent of those polled, over the Conservatives, with about 37.1 per cent.
"As we've seen in past elections, the two most recent ones for example, the votes and the seats don't always line up," Grenier said in an interview with CBC News on Monday.
"So despite the fact that we are looking at this pretty much tied race across the country, the Liberals are still the favourites to win the most seats."
The CBC Poll Tracker includes every poll that is being published right now, Grenier said. The tracker is an accumulation of all polls, including those from pollsters, such as Abacus, Leger and Ipsos, among others.
The shift in the polls since Justin Trudeau's resignatio as prime minister has been remarkable, Grenier said, and probably one of the biggest shifts in Canadian history.
"We're looking at this enormous swing that has transformed the landscape from an inevitable Pierre Poilievre Conservative big majority government to now, what is essentially a toss-up race, where it's really either Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre's election to lose," he said.
"It's just an incredible amount of change that we just normally do not see in Canadian politics."
Local candidates may matter in close N.B. ridings
Grenier said it's hard to predict where things will stand in the next five weeks, but if the election were held today, his personal projection would award the Liberals six seats in New Brunswick and the Conservatives four — the same outcome as the last election.
Nationally, Grenier said, voter perceptions of the parties and party leaders are the most important factors in the outcome of elections, and the importance of local candidates will differ from riding to riding.
While the name on the ballot may not be a decisive factor, it could make the difference in particularly close ridings.
"I think that is all the more the case in New Brunswick and other areas of Atlantic Canada, where the attachment to that local candidate usually and traditionally has been a lot stronger than we see in other parts of Canada," said Grenier.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Hamilton Spectator
3 hours ago
- Hamilton Spectator
Nova Scotia's ambitious ‘Wind West' offshore energy plan wins support with conditions
HALIFAX - Two leading environmental groups are giving a thumbs up to Nova Scotia's ambitious plan to dramatically expand its fledgling offshore wind energy industry. But both groups were quick to add caveats. On Monday, Premier Tim Houston said the province's plan to license enough offshore wind farms to produce five megawatts of electricity would be increased eightfold to 40 megawatts, well beyond the 2.4 megawatts Nova Scotia needs. He called on Ottawa to help cover the costs of his new Wind West project, saying the excess electricity could be used to supply 27 per cent of Canada's total demand. 'Nova Scotia is on the edge of a clean energy breakthrough,' the Progressive Conservative premier said in an online video, adding the province is poised to become an 'energy superpower.' Gretchen Fitzgerald, executive director of Sierra Club Canada, said the premier's bold plan, which includes building transmission lines across the country, represents an exciting opportunity for the province. 'It could be a game-changer for the region and for Canada,' she said in an interview from Ottawa. 'But it needs to be done correctly and with consultations.' Fitzgerald said the Nova Scotia and Canadian governments must focus on securing long-term benefits from the nascent offshore wind industry because they did a poor job on that front when dealing with the offshore oil and gas sector. 'We have to make sure that we are not selling out what is a massive resource for less benefit than communities should have,' Fitzgerald said, adding that Nova Scotia continues to suffer from a high rate of energy poverty. In May of this year, utility affordability expert Roger Colton produced a report showing that 43 per cent of Nova Scotians were struggling to pay their energy bills — the highest proportion in Canada. While Fitzgerald applauded Houston's clean energy plan, she criticized what she described as the premier's populist penchant for taking decisive action before consulting with experts and the public. 'Moving from a couple hundred turbines to thousands in the next decade needs to be done in a staged way so we learn how to do this right,' she said, adding Houston appears to have adopted a ''move-fast-and-break-things mentality.' '(That) can lead to unacceptable harm to sensitive ocean life,' she said. 'From a community benefits and acceptance point of view, breaking trust can be the biggest barrier to getting to good climate solutions.' In October 2023, the Public Policy Forum released a study saying Sable Island Bank, an ocean area about 180 kilometres south of Nova Scotia, is among the world's best locations for wind energy generation. 'It and several other similarly endowed areas off the coast of Atlantic Canada hold the potential to place the region among the leading global hubs of offshore wind-powered energy development,' says the report from the independent non-profit think tank. It goes on to say that as the world shifts from a dependence on fossil fuels to forms of energy that do not emit climate-changing greenhouse gases, Atlantic Canada is facing 'a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity ... to recover an economic vitality comparable to the Age of Sail — fittingly built again on the power of wind at sea.' The report says the installation of 15 gigawatts of offshore wind generation would create about 30,000 direct jobs annually. Despite the hype, the industry must also earn acceptance from Nova Scotia's fishing industry, which in 2023 contributed $2.5 billion to the province's economy and employed 19,000 people. In Halifax, a spokesman for the Ecology Action Centre called on the provincial government to build public trust, especially with coastal communities. 'There really needs to be a priority on stakeholder engagement for all ocean users,' said senior energy co-ordinator Thomas Arnason McNeil. 'We're going to need to prioritize ecological safeguards and preserve the existing livelihoods that we have. That includes the fishing industry. That's half the economy in Nova Scotia.' Still, he said the province's big push for clean energy is on the right track, especially when it comes to building out its electricity grid to better connect with the rest of the country. If done right, the payoff would be enormous, Arnason McNeil said. 'We're talking serious job creation here and a lot of revenue potentially,' he said. 'The bottom line is that you have to do this right. (But) the prize at the end of the road is monumental in terms of the benefits.' A call for bids to build enough offshore turbines to generate five gigawatts of electricity is expected as early as this year. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 8, 2025. Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
Yahoo
16 hours ago
- Yahoo
EDITORIAL: Jobless numbers spell trouble
The need to grow the Canadian economy in the face of tough economic times was underscored by the release of the latest unemployment numbers by Statistics Canada on Friday. The unemployment rate in May rose to 7.0%. That's the highest it has been since September 2016, excluding the 2020 and 2021 pandemic years, and a 12.9% increase from 6.2% a year ago in May. The Canadian economy generated a net increase of just 8,800 jobs in May, far short of the roughly 30,000 per month needed to keep pace with population growth. A total of 1.6 million Canadians were unemployed in May, an increase of 191,000, or 13.8%, compared to May 2024. A smaller share of people who were unemployed in April found jobs in May (22.6%), compared to a year ago (24.0%), and spent an average of 21.8 weeks searching for work, compared to 18.4 weeks in May 2024. Unemployment in Ontario (7.9%); Alberta (7.4%); Newfoundland and Labrador (9.7%); Prince Edward Island (8.2%); and Nunavut (9.0%) were all above the national average, as was the case in a number of cities, including Windsor (10.8%); Oshawa (9.1%); Toronto (8.8%); Calgary (7.8%); and Edmonton (7.3%). Canada recorded its largest merchandise trade deficit of $7.1 billion in April, the first full month of the tariff war with U.S. President Donald Trump, compared to $2.3 billion in March. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development last week projected meagre 1% economic growth for Canada this year and 1.1% in 2026, noting Trump's global tariff war is expected to hit the economies of Canada, Mexico, China and the U.S. hardest. Prime Minister Mark Carney proposed measures to bolster the economy on Friday, including eliminating federal barriers to interprovincial trade, increasing labour mobility and shortening the process for approving major infrastructure projects. Those are worthy long-term goals, since internal impediments to trade cost our economy $200 billion annually, raise consumer prices up to 14.5% and reduce economic growth as measured by gross domestic product up to 8% annually. But they are also long-term solutions, underscoring the importance of Carney's government producing a budget as soon as possible to reveal the Liberals' specific plans to boost the economy. For better or worse, Carney decided to delay releasing the budget until fall.
Epoch Times
19 hours ago
- Epoch Times
US Ambassador Pete Hoekstra Says Canada's Economic Hopes Align With Trump's Goals
U.S. President Donald Trump's goal of enhancing American power aligns with Prime Minister Mark Carney's aim of making Canada's economy the fastest-growing in the G7, Trump's envoy to Canada said Friday. 'It's going to continue to be a very strong and friendly relationship,' Ambassador Pete Hoekstra told The Canadian Press in an interview Friday, adding the two leaders are in frequent contact.
