Latest news with #Therdsak
Bangkok Post
24-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Brokerage sees Thai equities recovering
Thai equities are expected to recover in the second half of 2025, supported by expansionary fiscal measures, a more accommodative monetary policy stance and key earnings drivers, according to Asia Plus Securities (ASPS). According to Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, ASPS's executive vice-president, the government's forthcoming fiscal stimulus -- likely to follow the approval of the 2026 annual budget -- combined with anticipated policy rate cuts, could improve market sentiment. ASPS estimates that each 25-basis-point rate cut could lift the SET Index by around 70 points. "The timing is now appropriate for a rate cut. Given the current economic conditions, we expect 1-2 policy rate reductions this year, each of which could act as a catalyst for the equity market," Mr Therdsak noted. ASPS also sees additional upside from specific corporate catalysts. These include the anticipated mid-August relisting of Thai Airways International Plc (THAI) and a major strategic transaction by Siam Cement Group (SCC). Both are expected to help push the SET's earnings per share (EPS) above 90 baht in 2025. The broader economic environment also supports policy easing. Bond yields have declined, the baht has strengthened, and traditional growth drivers -- especially exports -- have weakened. ASPS also cautioned that the risk of higher US import tariffs on Thai goods could further dampen export momentum in the latter half of 2025. Key external risks to monitor include ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East -- currently subdued -- and the Thai-Cambodian border dispute, which has de-escalated into a "social media war". Domestically, political uncertainty is unlikely to obstruct passage of the 2026 budget, and markets appear to have already priced in much of the concern over potential US trade retaliation. However, final clarity on US tariff rates for each country remains crucial. If Thailand ends up with a higher tariff burden than regional peers, it could slip into a technical recession, potentially triggering more aggressive fiscal and monetary responses. Despite these concerns, ASPS believes export-related earnings risks are manageable. In the worst-case scenario, US tariffs would reduce total revenue for four key export sectors -- agriculture, food, petrochemicals and electronics -- by 3.1% and profits by only 1.1%. According to ASPS, fears that the SET Index could plunge to a new low near 1,056 points have likely passed. Nonetheless, elevated tariffs could deter foreign direct investment. "If Thailand remains at a 36% tariff rate while Vietnam and Indonesia are at 20% and 19%, respectively, we may lose competitiveness in attracting new investment. That said, there's still a sizeable pool of Board of Investment-approved projects in the pipeline, which should sustain investment activity for some time," Mr Therdsak added. ASPS expects listed companies to post flat earnings on a quarterly basis in the second quarter of 2025, with total profits of around 262 billion baht. For the full year, earnings are projected at 1.06 trillion baht, or 86 baht per share, representing 17% year-on-year growth. Sectors likely to show sustained third-quarter momentum include electronics, healthcare, property and transportation. Investor sentiment is also improving. Thai listed companies have repurchased shares worth 24 billion baht year-to-date, matching the total recorded for the whole of 2024, signalling renewed corporate confidence. Meanwhile, margin call pressures have eased, with margin loan balances declining to pre-Covid levels, suggesting reduced risk of forced selling. Thailand's stock market has staged a strong rebound, delivering the best returns globally over the past month. This momentum increases the likelihood that MSCI and FTSE will raise Thailand's weighting in their August reviews -- potentially attracting further foreign inflows. ASPS maintains a conservative year-end SET Index target of 1,376 points, based on an EPS estimate of 86 baht and a policy rate of 1.75%. With the index currently trading in the 1,140–1,170 range, there is significant upside potential. The firm recommends a diversified investment strategy, with a focus on high-dividend-yield stocks across multiple sectors.
Bangkok Post
23-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
ASPS sees Thai equities recovering
Thai equities are expected to recover in the second half of 2025, supported by expansionary fiscal measures, a more accommodative monetary policy stance and key earnings drivers, according to Asia Plus Securities (ASPS). According to Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, ASPS's executive vice-president, the government's forthcoming fiscal stimulus -- likely to follow the approval of the 2026 annual budget -- combined with anticipated policy rate cuts, could improve market sentiment. ASPS estimates that each 25-basis-point rate cut could lift the SET Index by around 70 points. "The timing is now appropriate for a rate cut. Given the current economic conditions, we expect 1-2 policy rate reductions this year, each of which could act as a catalyst for the equity market," Mr Therdsak noted. ASPS also sees additional upside from specific corporate catalysts. These include the anticipated mid-August relisting of Thai Airways International Plc (THAI) and a major strategic transaction by Siam Cement Group (SCC). Both are expected to help push the SET's earnings per share (EPS) above 90 baht in 2025. The broader economic environment also supports policy easing. Bond yields have declined, the baht has strengthened, and traditional growth drivers -- especially exports -- have weakened. ASPS also cautioned that the risk of higher US import tariffs on Thai goods could further dampen export momentum in the latter half of 2025. Key external risks to monitor include ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East -- currently subdued -- and the Thai-Cambodian border dispute, which has de-escalated into a "social media war". Domestically, political uncertainty is unlikely to obstruct passage of the 2026 budget, and markets appear to have already priced in much of the concern over potential US trade retaliation. However, final clarity on US tariff rates for each country remains crucial. If Thailand ends up with a higher tariff burden than regional peers, it could slip into a technical recession, potentially triggering more aggressive fiscal and monetary responses. Despite these concerns, ASPS believes export-related earnings risks are manageable. In the worst-case scenario, US tariffs would reduce total revenue for four key export sectors -- agriculture, food, petrochemicals and electronics -- by 3.1% and profits by only 1.1%. According to ASPS, fears that the SET Index could plunge to a new low near 1,056 points have likely passed. Nonetheless, elevated tariffs could deter foreign direct investment. "If Thailand remains at a 36% tariff rate while Vietnam and Indonesia are at 20% and 19%, respectively, we may lose competitiveness in attracting new investment. That said, there's still a sizeable pool of Board of Investment-approved projects in the pipeline, which should sustain investment activity for some time," Mr Therdsak added. ASPS expects listed companies to post flat earnings on a quarterly basis in the second quarter of 2025, with total profits of around 262 billion baht. For the full year, earnings are projected at 1.06 trillion baht, or 86 baht per share, representing 17% year-on-year growth. Sectors likely to show sustained third-quarter momentum include electronics, healthcare, property and transportation. Investor sentiment is also improving. Thai listed companies have repurchased shares worth 24 billion baht year-to-date, matching the total recorded for the whole of 2024, signalling renewed corporate confidence. Meanwhile, margin call pressures have eased, with margin loan balances declining to pre-Covid levels, suggesting reduced risk of forced selling. Thailand's stock market has staged a strong rebound, delivering the best returns globally over the past month. This momentum increases the likelihood that MSCI and FTSE will raise Thailand's weighting in their August reviews -- potentially attracting further foreign inflows. ASPS maintains a conservative year-end SET Index target of 1,376 points, based on an EPS estimate of 86 baht and a policy rate of 1.75%. With the index currently trading in the 1,140–1,170 range, there is significant upside potential. The firm recommends a diversified investment strategy, with a focus on high-dividend-yield stocks across multiple sectors.
Bangkok Post
08-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Analysts warn of 'tariff shock' if talks fail
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index could fall below 1,000 points and the country's GDP growth to less than 1% if the Thai negotiating team led by Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira cannot convince the US to lower its reciprocal tariff from 36%, analysts said on Tuesday. Bualuang Securities (BLS) said the worst-case scenario would be a 36% tariff on US imports of Thai shipments, which would cause Thai GDP growth to plunge to 0.9%, while the SET index could fall to 980 points. It was 1,115.65 at the close on Tuesday. In such a scenario, every major Southeast Asian nation would gain a competitive advantage over Thailand, the BLS note said. Based on current information, the Thai tariff rate would exceed that of Indonesia at 32%, Malaysia at 25% and Vietnam at 20%. 'This scenario would cause a severe economic impact,' said Piriyapon Kongvanich, strategist at BLS. Veeravat Virochpoka, head of research at FSS International Investment Advisory Securities, said the proposed US tariff on Thai goods also exceeds that on major Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Export-oriented industries, particularly electronics, food and agricultural products, could be damaged by a high US tariff on Thai goods, FSS noted. Electronics companies ship an average 20-30% of their exports to the US. 'We remain hopeful that the Thai government can convince Washington over the next three weeks to lower the reciprocal tariff on Thai exports. The highest rate the market expects is 18%,' said Mr Veeravat. Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, executive vice-president of the research division at Asia Plus Securities, also said the high US tariff carries downside risks for Thai GDP growth, pressuring the 2025 estimate to 1.3% and 1.5-1.6% for next year. 'Thailand may face tariff shock, especially with additional tariffs on exports of automobiles and parts, steel and aluminium,' said Mr Therdsak. However, he said, in the worst-case scenario the SET index should not fall below its previous low of 1,056-1,060 points, the level recorded when US President Donald Trump first announced the reciprocal tariffs. 'If the government submits a really good proposal that prompts Trump to change his mind, we can expect some upside,' said Mr Therdsak. He said the Thai negotiating team should take into account the possible adverse impacts of the proposed low tariffs on agricultural products imported from the US. "A high proportion of the Thai economy and population is involved in the farming sector. If the tariffs on US imports are too low, both the social and economic impacts would be too high,' said Mr Therdsak. "The Bank of Thailand should lower interest rates to revitalise the economy."
