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Calgary Herald

Bell: 6 out of 10 Danielle Smith voters would likely vote to leave Canada

Article content The arithmetic rolls out. The devil is in the details. The fine print is where you get the meat and potatoes. Article content The latest from ThinkHQ polling. Article content Article content The question. If a provincial referendum was held tomorrow asking Albertans if they would like to remain in Canada or become an independent country, how would you most likely vote? Article content The top number is just the appetizer. Article content REMAIN. 64 per cent. LEAVE. 29 per cent. The rest are unsure. Article content Article content When the question is whether a person would consider supporting Alberta leaving Canada, the number who would consider backing an exit from Confederation goes to 36 per cent. Article content Article content That's the number you could reach if, in the words of ThinkHQ's Marc Henry, it is a 'particularly angry at Ottawa day' and there are many of those on the calendar. Article content Just so you know, in a recent nose count in Quebec on sovereignty for that province it was NO. 59 per cent. YES. 32 per cent. Article content Let's dig into the Alberta math. The main course. Red meat on the menu. Article content REMAIN. 31 per cent. LEAVE. 58 per cent. 11 per cent are unsure. Article content Think about it. Article content 'There is a healthy majority of UCP voters from the last election who would vote for an independent Alberta if they had the chance tomorrow,' says pollster Henry. Article content Article content Article content 'Yes, you should be stunned,' says Henry. Article content 'Among conservative voters in Alberta there is a level of alienation right now that is palpable.' Article content Smith did really lower the number of Albertans needed to sign a petition to get a vote on independence. The number is 177,000 signatures and organizers on the independence side say they will easily get that number. Article content 'There is a level of anger within the UCP and it's got to go somewhere and I think that's why Smith has greased the skids to facilitate a referendum if that's what people want,' says the cruncher of numbers.