Bell: 6 out of 10 Danielle Smith voters would likely vote to leave Canada
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The arithmetic rolls out. The devil is in the details. The fine print is where you get the meat and potatoes.
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The latest from ThinkHQ polling.
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The question. If a provincial referendum was held tomorrow asking Albertans if they would like to remain in Canada or become an independent country, how would you most likely vote?
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The top number is just the appetizer.
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REMAIN. 64 per cent. LEAVE. 29 per cent. The rest are unsure.
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When the question is whether a person would consider supporting Alberta leaving Canada, the number who would consider backing an exit from Confederation goes to 36 per cent.
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That's the number you could reach if, in the words of ThinkHQ's Marc Henry, it is a 'particularly angry at Ottawa day' and there are many of those on the calendar.
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Just so you know, in a recent nose count in Quebec on sovereignty for that province it was NO. 59 per cent. YES. 32 per cent.
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Let's dig into the Alberta math. The main course. Red meat on the menu.
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REMAIN. 31 per cent. LEAVE. 58 per cent. 11 per cent are unsure.
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Think about it.
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'There is a healthy majority of UCP voters from the last election who would vote for an independent Alberta if they had the chance tomorrow,' says pollster Henry.
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'Yes, you should be stunned,' says Henry.
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'Among conservative voters in Alberta there is a level of alienation right now that is palpable.'
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Smith did really lower the number of Albertans needed to sign a petition to get a vote on independence. The number is 177,000 signatures and organizers on the independence side say they will easily get that number.
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'There is a level of anger within the UCP and it's got to go somewhere and I think that's why Smith has greased the skids to facilitate a referendum if that's what people want,' says the cruncher of numbers.
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