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Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
The 5 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2026
An already active start to the 2026 cycle has kicked into overdrive in recent weeks with a major retirement announcement, the passage of a key GOP priority and moves by candidates that could further scramble the chess board. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) made waves in the lead-up to the passage of President Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' by announcing he would not be seeking a third term next year, throwing the party's push to retain the seat in flux. That was only a prelude, however, to the GOP getting its mammoth tax and spending package over the finish line by July 4, with the newly minted law set to potentially play a far-reaching role as Democrats try to tether Republicans to the Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) cuts that were included in the bill. Here's a midsummer look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year. North Carolina By far the biggest change on this list is to the top spot as Tillis's decision to retire has further opened the door to Democrats potentially flipping a seat they have long been eyeing. The seat was always considered a top-level race for both sides of the aisle, but the removal of the battle-tested incumbent from the field makes the effort more difficult for the GOP. In one clear sign of how tight the race is likely to be, the election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its rating from 'lean Republican' to 'toss up' after Tillis's announcement. Adding to the problems for Republicans is that the news seems to have pushed former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) closer to taking the plunge, potentially giving the minority party an A-level recruit and a real chance to flip the seat. Cooper, the former two-term governor, has never lost a statewide race in six attempts. On the GOP side, all eyes are on Lara Trump, the wife of Eric Trump and a Tar Heel State native. In the eyes of multiple Republican strategists, the nomination is hers if she wants it — but whether she wants it is an entirely different question. Lara Trump had a chance to run for the seat currently occupied by Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) in 2022 but passed on the opportunity. She was also floated as a possible appointee to fill the Senate seat of current Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Florida, but Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) ultimately tapped Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), an ally, instead. 'Lara Trump's very viable,' Budd recently told reporters at the Capitol, shooting down concerns that she has not lived in the state in many years. 'She's from Wilmington, she went to the same high school as Michael Jordan.' 'There's a great case to be made if she wants it. We of course would be supportive,' he added. Republicans also see an added bonus to her running: the chance to get the Trump name on the ballot, even in a midterm year. 'She has a golden last name and it's still a light red state,' one GOP operative with experience working on Senate races said. Georgia It's still early in the cycle, but Republican recruiting woes have emerged in several states, headlined by Georgia. The GOP is still in the throes of trying to figure out who will take on Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in a state where Republicans believe they have a real chance of flipping a seat that they shouldn't have lost in the first place. The GOP got its first major blow of the cycle when Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announced in May that he was sidestepping a Senate bid. Since then, it's been a real struggle for Republicans to find a top-tier candidate who could topple the incumbent Democrat. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) has already launched a campaign, but that has done little to stop top Republicans from looking elsewhere for their party's solutions. Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) indicated that he is taking a long, hard look at a bid. Some Republicans are also hoping that Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins, a former House member, gets the campaign itch once again. 'Georgia's going to be really tough. … Ossoff is not the best candidate, but he's figured out the way to make it work for himself and the state is changing. It's going to be very difficult,' said a second GOP operative who has worked on Senate races. 'You feel worse about Georgia than you do North Carolina — for sure,' the operative said. 'Who's going to emerge [in the primary]? I think Jon Ossoff's a better candidate than I think people anticipated when he first got elected.' 'Not having Brian Kemp hurts,' the operative added. In fact, Democrats see Ossoff being a real net positive in this race, especially given the uncertainty on the GOP side. Putting icing on the cake, the first-term Democrat raised more than $10 million between April and June, marking his second consecutive quarter with an eight-figure haul. He has $15.5 million in the bank. 'He's passionate. He cares. He fights for his state. … He's committed. He listens to them. He hears what their challenges are and he comes here to solve those problems,' said Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), who ran the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee when Ossoff won his race in 2020. 'That's a recipe for success in your state. Maine Sen. Susan Collins (Maine), the only Republican defending a seat in a blue state next year, has had a difficult month. First, Republicans were able to pass the 'big, beautiful bill' without her support, putting her on record opposing cuts to Medicaid that could harm rural hospitals — but on the defensive back home about the GOP bill. Most recently, she voted against a White House request to claw back funding after repeatedly warning that the Trump administration was not going into enough detail about the impact of the cuts, which largely impact foreign aid and public broadcasters. As Senate Appropriations Committee chair, she is also trying to shepherd government funding through Congress amid accusations from Democrats that Republicans are poisoning the well with the bill to claw back funds. Democrats allege Collins is intentionally making moves to appeal to both sides. 'It's not an accident that Susan Collins is failing to stop the toxic GOP agenda,' said Tommy Garcia, a spokesperson for the Maine Democratic Party, in a statement. 'It's a carefully orchestrated political ploy to keep her seat while cutting Medicaid and delivering tax giveaways to billionaires.' 'At the end of the day, Donald Trump and Washington Republicans know Susan Collins will have their back,' he added. Amid all of that, though, Collins can take solace in a few things heading into the second half of summer. A poll conducted by Pan Atlantic Research in May of 840 likely voters found her favorability rating 4 points above water in Maine. And Democrats still do not have a candidate ready to take her on. Many in the party are pinning their hopes on Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) taking the plunge, but the 77-year-old has given little oxygen to the idea of a run. Absent Mills, the options are limited. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) made clear months ago he has no plans of challenging Collins. For now, the best chance for Democrats to take Collins down is seemingly for her to opt for retirement. Senate Republicans and operatives, however, believe she will seek a sixth term and find it hard to believe she will depart only months after securing the Appropriations gavel — her dream job. They also know that without her, the seat is most likely gone. Texas The Lone Star State is the lone new inclusion on this list as questions surround the political future of Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). Cornyn finds himself down by double digits in numerous polls to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), sparking fears among the GOP that Democrats have a real opening to nab a white whale: a Senate seat in Texas. To be sure, the four-term incumbent has a long history of success, especially in general elections. He's also a prolific fundraiser. Still, Republicans are nervous about whether he can overcome his opponent, who has been a MAGA stalwart — and who they believe will be a weaker general election candidate. 'Worried,' one Senate Republican told The Hill when asked about the mood within the GOP conference about Cornyn's reelection chances, adding that members are also concerned about the amount of money it will cost to help lift him out of the polling hole. Cornyn is facing a crucial stretch as his supporters take to the airwaves in a bid to determine the path forward. A Cornyn super PAC went up on the air on Wednesday, the first of a series of expected ads that is part of an effort to improve Cornyn's numbers and damage Paxton's. According to a third GOP operative, the hope is for some clarity in the race to arrive around Labor Day. Texas notoriously has an early candidate filing deadline — Dec. 8 this year. In that time, Cornyn's team must quickly figure out a cohesive message, or messages, to wield against Paxton, who is considered a walking opposition research book among many Republicans even as he has an intense backing among some MAGA voters. The Texas attorney general was acquitted by the state Senate in 2023 after allegations of political bribery. He was also charged with securities fraud in 2015, with those charges eventually being dismissed earlier this year. Those problems were only highlighted in recent weeks when Angela Paxton, a Texas state senator and Paxton's wife, filed for divorce 'on biblical grounds,' citing 'recent discoveries.' 'The hard part of running against Ken Paxton … is there are so many things — it's hard to know which thing you have to center on,' the third GOP operative with experience working on Senate races said, arguing that chipping away at the populist Christian vote is crucial for the incumbent. This has prompted GOP leaders to prod President Trump in search of an endorsement to boost Cornyn, but even the senator has admitted that doesn't seem to be coming yet. According to the strategist, Trump has made it clear in recent weeks that if he endorses anyone, it would likely be Cornyn. Awaiting the eventual nominee will likely be former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who lost last year to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by 8.5 percentage points even with massive Democratic spending in the state. If Paxton makes it the general election, both sides of the aisle view this as a competitive race. 'Right now, it looks like Ken Paxton wins that primary, at least on paper. The other thing that same piece of paper shows is that Colin Allred beats Ken Paxton — and it can happen,' the second GOP operative said. Some are pushing back on that narrative, however. 'Even with the worst-case scenario in Texas, the fundamentals remain solidly red, just more expensive,' one national Republican strategist said. Michigan The battle to replace the retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) rounds out the list as Democrats find themselves in the midst of a nasty primary while top Republicans look to avoid one by boosting former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), their preferred candidate. Democrats are in the early stages of a three-way primary between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Stevens has opened the race as a slight favorite according to early surveys, with McMorrow and El-Sayed, who is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), trailing not far behind as they attempt to stake out their lanes and boost their name ID in quick order. When asked to handicap the race, GOP operatives largely agreed on three things: Stevens would be the toughest general election opponent, McMorrow has the biggest boom-or-bust potential in the field, and the best chance for Republicans to flip the seat involves El-Sayed becoming the nominee. 'He's going to invigorate their base. You've got to draw a stark contrast and you've got to hope you win enough independents. That's the game,' the first GOP operative said about El-Sayed. 'You need someone who's going to terrify our base.' Still, Rogers remains a question mark for some Republicans as they wonder why he could be successful this cycle after not being able to get across the finish line last year, when Trump was on the ballot and the environment was considered more favorable for Republicans. 'I don't know what changes that gives us an edge without him on the ballot,' the second strategist said. Some of Rogers's woes from the 2024 bid are also cropping up this cycle, headlined by lackluster fundraising that prompted complaints from many corners of the party during his initial Senate run. The former congressman only raised $745,000 in the second quarter and has $1.1 million in the bank. He raised an additional $779,000 for his joint fundraising account. By contrast, Stevens, McMorrow and El-Sayed posted at least $1.8 million hauls, with the congresswoman leading the way with $2.8 million — $1.5 million of which was transferred from her House account. Rogers also might be facing a primary in short order as Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) is gearing up for a challenge. Still, while it's been decades since a Republican won a Senate seat in Michigan, the national Republican strategist contended the state is trending in their direction. The strategist noted that Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who defeated Rogers in 2024, won by less than 0.5 points after having the benefit of evading a competitive primary. 'While some speculate Texas is trending blue, the data tells a different story — Michigan remains the more competitive battleground,' the strategist said. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
New York Times
2 days ago
- Politics
- New York Times
Regret, Thy Name Is Hawley. And Murkowski. And Musk.
Is Senator Josh Hawley having second thoughts? Sure looks that way. Last week, a mere 14 days after the Missouri Republican did as he was told and voted for President Trump's megabill, he introduced legislation that would counter that monstrosity's cuts to Medicaid and repair the very damage he'd just endorsed. It redefines the flip-flop. And reeks of regret. So does Senator Thom Tillis's recent decision not to seek re-election. Both in and after his announcement of that, the North Carolina Republican wrestled with what Congress under Trump had become, with the president's broken promises and bad judgment, with his own indulgence of that. He told the CNN anchor Jake Tapper that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth — who ascended to that position by dint of Tillis's final-hours capitulation to Trump's bullying — was 'out of his depth.' If only that had been predictable! I salute Tillis's candor, no matter how belated. But I see it as something else, too: atonement. There's a lot of that going around, as politicians and others who submitted to Trump reckon with the toll of that obeisance. The president may well be notching legislative victory after victory as a meek Congress abdicates its responsibilities and a cowardly Supreme Court looks the other way. But I sense a countervailing current. 'What have I done?' are the words in the thought bubbles above more and more people who have grudgingly and not so grudgingly supported Trump. To judge by some polling, that includes voters; in a recent, fascinating Gallup survey, they gave him poor marks even for his handling of immigration, and that's his signature issue. They wanted a more secure border, yes. But suspending civil liberties and feeding migrants to swamp creatures? That wasn't high on their wish lists. Lowering the cost of living was, and yet, as Colby Smith recently noted in The Times, 'Inflation accelerated in June as President Trump's tariffs started to leave a bigger imprint on the economy.' Started is the key word there. 'The June data still reflects only the initial impact of Mr. Trump's global trade war,' Smith added. Of course, the conspiracy theorists who reveled in Trump's encouragement of their wildest fantasies feel jilted by his sudden command that they erase Jeffrey Epstein from their cognitive hard drives. As the tawdry twists in the Epstein tale keep coming, Trump's most obliged defenders are being driven to exhaustion. Vice President JD Vance responded to The Wall Street Journal's report that Trump had once written and doodled a special smutty, predators-in-arms birthday greeting to Epstein with a social media post that asked: 'Does anyone honestly believe this sounds like Donald Trump?' Does anyone honestly believe it doesn't? We're talking Mr. Grab-Them-By-The-You-Know-What here. And Vance is giving off more than a whiff of panic, which is kissing cousins with regret. It's the Vances and Hawleys and Tillises who interest me most. The buyer's remorse that more than a few voters feel is a common condition when politicians don't deliver; some of Trump's allies are in the grip of a different ailment. Theirs was a willed gullibility — they have always known deep down who Trump is. They wagered that they could live with that. They made a Faustian bargain, abetting him so that he didn't eviscerate them. They just didn't understand the full price they'd pay. Elon Musk miscalculated. Thought his billions and his brilliance (in his own mind) inoculated him in a way unavailable to lesser mortals. Persuaded himself that Trump, who is steadfast and disciplined about exactly nothing, was steadfast about fiscal discipline. Musk's regret is so intense he's plotting a new political party to flex it. To console and redeem themselves, Republican lawmakers are creating a whole new Kama Sutra of contortions, whereby they justify (or even nullify) yes votes with postscripts and asterisks such as Hawley's newly proposed legislation and Lisa Murkowsi's plea — after she, too, voted for Trump's big beautifulness — that the House perform major surgery on it. Sorry, Senator Murkowski, that patient was dead, and you knew it: Remorse and shame were etched on your face as you sought to explain yourself. Tillis last week imagined pulling a Hawley himself. 'I suspect we're going to find out there are some things that we're going to regret,' he said on the Senate floor in the course of joining all but two other Senate Republicans to vote for a rescissions package that allowed Trump to claw back billions of dollars that Congress had previously appropriated. 'And I suspect that when we do we'll have to come back and fix it.' So regret is now baked in? Pacify the president now, mitigate the fallout later? Unfortunately for Senator Bill Cassidy, Republican of Louisiana, there's no do-over for blessing Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s appointment as secretary of health and human services. Cassidy, a physician, grilled Kennedy during his confirmation hearing, then pronounced himself satisfied that Kennedy was trustworthy on vaccines. Oops. Kennedy went ahead and fired all 17 members of the C.D.C.'s vaccine advisory panel. Their replacements included prominent vaccine critics. And Cassidy was left to sputter on social media that the new group's first meeting 'should be delayed until the panel is fully staffed with more robust and balanced representation — as required by law — including those with more direct relevant expertise.' I'm not sure whether to be heartened that Cassidy and Tillis have snapped to (at least somewhat) or heartsick that they suffocated their better judgment in the first place. I do know that the regrets — and the ranks of the regretful — will only grow from here. For the Love of Sentences In The Autopian, Matt Hardigree explained one carmaker's advantage: 'You don't buy a Subaru so much as you ascend into your final form as an outdoorsy Subaru owner when a ray of light beams down from the nearest REI, and all your clothes vanish from your body and are replaced by Patagonia.' (Thanks to Carol Goland of Granville, Ohio, for spotting this.) In The Wall Street Journal, Rich Cohen remembered his excitement, as a boy, when the ice cream bonanza of Mister Softee jingled into his life: 'The truck was a revelation, great in the way of the bookmobile but without the pain of learning. What thrilled me was the idea that this sweet thing could turn up like a messiah amid the blast furnace of summer, that you could join a crowd of kids giving it chase, that it could redeem an otherwise aimless day.' (Henry Pinkney, Farmington Hills, Mich.) In The London Review of Books, Patricia Lockwood qualified her feelings about Sylvia Plath's husband, the poet Ted Hughes, after reading some of Plath's reflections: 'It is not that I have no sympathy for Hughes. I have immense sympathy for him when Plath describes her shrimp casseroles.' (William Wood, Edmonton, Alberta) In The Dallas Morning News, Robert Wilonsky reported on the tensions when a developer met with residents of the northwest Dallas area where he wants to put up scores of new townhouses: 'It took, like, three minutes for the town hall to devolve into shouts, accusations, murmurs, boos. Three minutes for friends and neighbors to start speaking in fluent Internet Comment.' (Dorit Suffness, Dallas) In The Athletic, Jayson Stark identified the special purpose of the Philadelphia Phillies player Kyle Schwarber as 'whomping baseballs' that always threaten 'to land either in somebody's cheesesteak or in a crater on the moon — whichever gets in the way first.' (Leslie Ferreira, Studio City, Calif.) In The Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg fretted the automotive implications of an A.I. chatbot's recent Nazi-friendly meltdown (and made clever reference to an old Stephen King novel and, separately, a classic Disney movie): 'Elon Musk announced this week that all Teslas will be equipped with the new version of Grok. I don't think this means Teslas will start targeting Jews in intersections, like a souped-up Christine or Goebbels-Mode Herbie the Hate Bug, to deal with the 'problem' it sees 'every damn time.' But I do think Grok encouraged a lot of people who think that way. And some of those people drive.' (Michael Smith, Georgetown, Ky.) In The New Yorker, Hanif Abdurraqib explored the scrutiny of Zohran Mamdani: 'I tend to find Islamophobia unspectacular. That doesn't mean I don't also find it insidious and of serious consequence. I simply imagine it, like other prejudices, as a kind of ever-present static in the American psyche, tuned lower at times and then growing cacophonous with even a light touch of the volume dial.' (Hollis Rose Birnbaum, Chicago) In The Times, John McWhorter questioned evolutions of language that are driven by political correctness: 'Again and again we create new terms hoping to get past negative associations with the old ones, such as 'homeless' for 'bum.' But after a while the negative associations settle like a cloud of gnats on the new terms as well, and then it's time to find a further euphemism. With no hesitation I predict that 'unhoused person' will need replacement in about 2030.' (Wim Kimmerer, Berkeley, Calif., and Lisa O'Melia, Norwalk, Conn., among many others) Also in The Times, David Litt described the cultural and partisan divide between him and his brother-in-law: 'It was immediately clear we had nothing in common. He lifted weights to death metal; I jogged to Sondheim.' Litt recommended communication, not contempt, in the face of such differences. 'In an age when banishment backfires, keeping the door open to unlikely friendship isn't a betrayal of principles — it's an affirmation of them,' he wrote. (Kate Rosenbaum, Richmond, Va.) Alissa Wilkinson remarked that the ranting of an old man in the new movie 'Eddington' makes sense when the date is stamped onscreen — and situates him in the middle of pandemic lockdowns: 'By late May 2020, even the most unflappable among us felt one raisin short of a fruitcake.' (Phillip Schulz, Brooklyn, N.Y.) Lisa Lerer recognized the 'long and storied history of over-interpreting New York elections as barometers of the national mood.' The Democratic Party, she added, 'should spend more time thinking about the Upper Peninsula of Michigan than the Upper West Side.' (Carol Henton, San Mateo, Calif.) Finally, in The Santa Barbara Independent, Nick Welsh distilled his objection to Trump's megabill: 'It shreds the safety net for the poor in order to give added bounce to the trampolines of the wealthy.' (Tom Hinshaw, Santa Barbara, Calif.) To nominate favorite bits of recent writing from The Times or other publications to be mentioned in 'For the Love of Sentences,' please email me here and include your name and place of residence. On a Personal (By Which I Mean Regan) Note The rain is coming down with the kind of ferocity that set Noah in motion. The thunder is twice as loud. And I'm driving. Not because I'm going anywhere. Because I have a companion whose quirks, most of them delightful, include sheer terror during summer storms. Our Honda is her haven. There's no discussing meteorology with a dog, no assuring her that she's safe at home in her bed and the world isn't ending. Regan knows an apocalypse when she hears one — and she has great ears. Whenever the skies open and lightning strikes, she paces furiously. Whines at me, incessantly. Nudges me, over and over. It's painful to behold. It's impossible to ignore. Forget writing. Forget reading. She won't allow it. Her panic can last anywhere from 20 minutes to four hours, depending on the storm and on whether I've given her the sedatives that the vet prescribed. But those doggy downers work only some of the time, and I don't want to administer too many too often. I've tried squeezing her into one of those thunder shirts, to no avail. I've tried loud, clangorous music to drown out the cacophony of the weather. Doesn't work. Then, about two and a half weeks ago, when we were getting serious thunder and significant rain in my area of North Carolina on a daily or near-daily basis, I had a thought. The car! It's cavelike, so Regan might feel protected. The vibration of its movement, coupled with the hum of its engine, might somehow distract or console her. I suppose I had some buried memory of friends telling me that they'd pacified howling infants with such vehicular therapy, though I wasn't conscious at the time of the parallel. I put Regan in the back seat. I drove into the downpour. Within a minute, she was miraculously still. Magically silent. So I've repeated the trick, including last Monday evening, which I described at the start of this confession. I forgot to mention that during that Regan-shushing drive and a few before it, I listened to the audio version of the recent best seller 'This Dog Will Change Your Life,' by Elias Weiss Friedman. Seemed fitting. I'm not sure if my automotive accommodation of Regan makes me a chump or a champ, but I lack other ideas, and I can't see exiling her to some distant room in the house and thus exacerbating her grief just so I'm spared it. I've found a way, albeit somewhat kooky and cumbersome, to relieve a beloved's distress. Shouldn't I use it? I deny Regan and am stern with her in plenty of other circumstances. She doesn't need that when the heavens rage. Thank you for being a subscriber Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you're enjoying what you're reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here. Have feedback? Send me a note at bruni-newsletter@
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Medicaid cuts could define midterms
Medicaid is set to become a key issue in the battle over control of Congress in next year's midterm elections now that President Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' has passed. Congress passed the largest Medicaid cuts in the program's 60-year history through the GOP's megabill right before the July 4 holiday, a $1 trillion reduction projected to push more than 12 million low-income individuals off their health insurance over the next decade. Republicans argue the moves are necessary to address waste and fraud in the program, ensuring 'able-bodied' adults aren't taking advantage of the system. But with 1 in 5 Americans enrolled in Medicaid, Democrats hope this massive slash spells political poison for Republicans in the midterms. GOP holdouts voiced concerns along these lines leading up to the vote. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who voted against the bill and won't be seeking reelection, reportedly told Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) that the Medicaid cuts could cost Republicans control of both the House and Senate. Heading into the 2026 election cycle, Republicans will have to get ahead of Democratic messaging on health coverage. 'The key here for Republicans going into the midterms is to clearly go on offense and define the debate around Medicaid in particular today — not tomorrow, not next month, not in the fall, not next year. They need to do it in a unified and aggressive way today, because Americans' public opinion is on [the] Republican side,' Kristin Davison, partner at the GOP consulting firm Axiom Strategies, told The Hill. She pointed to polling that showed most Americans — 62 percent, according to polling from earlier this year — are in favor of measures such as adding work requirements to Medicaid. The legislation makes a wide range of changes to the program, though the Senate's parliamentarian struck some more extensive ones for being noncompliant with Senate rules. The law is set to require Medicare beneficiaries to prove for the first time they are working or in school at least 80 hours per month — equal to part-time employment — to keep their health insurance. That will take effect Dec. 31, 2026, just after the midterms. It will also require more frequent eligibility checks and Medicaid recipients living above the poverty line to pay out-of-pocket copays for most services, including doctor visits and lab tests. Throughout the bill's legislative process, Democrats have been quick to go after Republicans over the changes in Medicaid, as they have long warned that Trump and the GOP would seek to make cuts if they took power in Washington. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) gave a preview of what Democratic messaging could look like in his record-breaking House floor speech Thursday. 'Almost $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid. This runs directly contrary to what President Trump indicated in January, which was that he was going to love and cherish Medicaid. Nothing about this bill loves and cherishes Medicaid,' Jeffries said. 'It guts Medicaid in a way that it's going to hurt children, hurt families, hurt seniors, hurt people with disabilities, hurt women, hurt everyday Americans.' Senate Democrats' campaign arm rolled out an ad in May, pulling together various news clips discussing the effects of potential Medicaid cuts. House Majority Forward, a PAC that works to elect Democrats to the House, launched digital ads at the same time in 26 congressional districts led by potentially vulnerable Republicans who will be targeted next year. The ads argued the Republicans voted to increase grocery costs and cut health care. The Democratic National Committee highlighted effects of Medicaid cuts across the country in a release in late June, accusing the party of playing 'political games with Americans' lives.' The House Democrats' campaign arm said a vote for the bill would be the 'defining contrast' of the midterms and cost the GOP its majority. The organization also appears likely to hammer lawmakers for alleged hypocrisy, pointing in a memo to a letter that a dozen GOP lawmakers signed in April saying they wouldn't support big cuts to Medicaid before they eventually supported the bill Thursday. 'Let's be clear — vulnerable Republicans have admitted time and time again that even they know their bill would obliterate access to health care, raise costs, cut jobs, threaten rural hospitals, and lead to families going hungry, but they voted to pass it anyway,' Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), said in a statement. 'The DCCC will make sure every battleground voter knows how vulnerable House Republicans abandoned them by passing the most unpopular piece of legislation in modern American history, and we're going to take back the House majority because of it,' she said. Democratic consultant Martha McKenna, who previously served as political director for Senate Democrats' campaign arm, said the party must communicate to voters that the legislation will affect everyone's health care costs regardless of whether they're on Medicare. 'People who are on Medicaid will still show up in hospitals and ERs, and they're still going to get sick. It's just going to drive the cost of health care up for everyone,' she said, arguing this will ensure that Republican arguments that the moves were necessary will fail. The impacts on health coverage are likely to be immense. Roughly 40 percent of U.S. births are paid for by Medicaid, and among children under 6 years old, more than 40 percent are either covered by Medicaid or the Children's Health Insurance Program. According to estimates from the National Rural Health Association, rural hospitals will lose $70 billion over the next 10 years as a result of the law, losing 21 cents from every Medicaid dollar they receive. A June KFF poll found that 74 percent of U.S. adults viewed the legislation unfavorably when informed it would increase the number of uninsured people by 10 million, and 79 percent had the same view when informed it would decrease funding for local hospitals. Polling from The Washington Post found that roughly a third of Americans, including 42 percent of independents, had no opinion on the reconciliation package. Whichever party has the most convincing campaign message stands to claim this undecided cohort. A GOP operative acknowledged the bill gives Democrats a 'silver bullet' in the upcoming elections but argued Republicans will be able to 'neutralize' Medicaid concerns with the numerous other provisions passed in the legislation. 'If you break it down into all these provisions that we're actually pushing for with the legislation, you know, I do think it's a win for us,' the operative told The Hill. 'We can at least level the playing field, right? If that makes sense, where you can kind of neutralize the issue by talking about all those key provisions that we have.' These various Medicaid provisions, most notably the work requirements, won't take effect immediately, which will present an uphill battle for Democrats. Democrats acknowledged it may pose an extra challenge but expressed confidence they'll still be able to communicate the pending changes to voters. One Democratic strategist who works on House races cited the 2010 and 2018 midterms, during which legislation either not yet in effect or that failed dominated the cycle. They noted that many provisions of the Affordable Care Act weren't yet in effect by November 2010, but Democrats still sustained major losses because of its unpopularity at the time. And though congressional Republicans failed to repeal the law in 2018, they argued that year's cycle was still about GOP efforts to repeal it, for which the party suffered. 'There's an argument to be made here that if voters believe, and it is true that the unpopular bill is really bad for them, it doesn't matter if it's going to be bad for them tomorrow or next year,' the strategist said. 'If they believe it is bad for them, they will act on that opinion.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Democrats scramble to torpedo controversial Trump judicial nominee
Senate Judiciary Democrats are scrambling to make their case as the panel weighs the controversial judicial nomination of a Trump official accused of proposing the Justice Department (DOJ) defy court orders. Emil Bove, the principal deputy attorney general, has been nominated for a lifetime appointment to a bench of the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals. Democrats made a last-ditch effort Tuesday to call a hearing with the whistleblower who said he heard Bove suggest the Trump administration should consider ignoring potential court rulings on their plans to send migrants to foreign prisons, with Bove saying they may tell the courts, 'F‑‑‑ you.' But Bove looks poised to proceed, as the one Senate Judiciary Republican who has opposed the nominee, Sen. Thom Tillis (N.C.) has signaled he would back his confirmation, which would bring a vote before the full Senate. Bove is expected to have the votes to win confirmation on the Senate floor, where Republicans have a 53-47 seat majority. Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said the committee must hear from the whistleblower behind the accusations: Erez Reuveni, who was fired after a disclosure he made in a related case, telling a judge that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported in error. 'I don't think we should move forward with this vote until we've given the whistleblower an opportunity under oath before the committee to tell us what happened, what we have here. Mr. Bove was in a position where he was encouraging members of the Department of Justice to mislead the judge on the case. That is just unacceptable, unprofessional conduct,' Durbin said Tuesday on CNN referencing the planned Thursday vote. 'This gentleman is prepared to go under oath and to speak to the committee about what he saw and what Mr. Bove did. We should get that done before there's any vote in the committee on his nomination.' Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), however, says the vote will go forward as planned. Bove, previously a member of Trump's personal criminal defense team, currently serves in the No. 3 spot in the DOJ. Should his nomination advance Thursday, he would be launched to a sphere of the judiciary from which Supreme Court justices are often chosen. Numerous groups have also objected to Bove's nomination. Seventy-five formal federal judges signed on to a letter opposing his nomination, calling his dismissal of prosecutors, involvement in killing the bribery prosecution of New York Mayor Eric Adams (D), and nods to defying court orders 'disqualifying.' Last week, the committee released substantial documentation from Reuveni showing other DOJ employees present for a March 14 meeting referencing the expletive, as well as floating the directive to defy the courts as President Trump pushed ahead with plans to ignite the Alien Enemies Act and fly some 200 Venezuelan men to a Salvadoran prison. According to a complaint on file with the inspector general, Bove 'made a remark concerning the possibility that a court order would enjoin those removals before they could be effectuated. Bove stated thatthe DOJ would need to consider telling the courts 'f‑‑‑ you' and ignore any such court order. Mr. Reuveni perceived that others in the room looked stunned, and he observed awkward, nervous glances among people in the room.' 'Mr. Reuveni was in disbelief, because, on the contrary, the Department of Justice consistently advises its clients of their obligation to follow court orders, not to ignore them. Mr. Reuveni knew that it was absurd and unlawful to do otherwise,' the whistleblower relayed in his disclosure. The documents released by Durbin provide greater details about an episode that prompted the judge overseeing a challenge to the flights to conclude there was probable cause for criminal contempt, finding Trump administration willfully defied his order to halt or turn around the planes of migrants. In an exchange with colleagues, Reuveni can be seen discussing Bove's remarks with coworkers, saying they were reaching 'a decision point on f‑‑‑ you.' Bove said he couldn't recall whether he used the expletive but sidestepped questions about whether he ordered defiance of the courts. 'I've certainly said things encouraging litigators at the department to fight hard for valid positions that we have to take,' Bove said at his confirmation hearing. 'I certainly conveyed the importance of the upcoming operation,' he added about the Alien Enemies Act flights. Democrats have grilled Bove about his stance on the Jan. 6, 2021, riot, as the DOJ official was involved with dismissing prosecutors who worked on the cases of rioters and also demanded a list of FBI personnel who helped investigate the cases. They had hoped Tillis might side with them, given his statement in a recent CNN interview after announcing his retirement that those who 'excused' Jan. 6 would not get his backing. Bove, in written questions for the record, said he could not recall where he was as rioters stormed the Capitol but otherwise said he does not see his skepticism of Jan. 6 prosecutions as being at odds with his stance of opposing violence against law enforcement. 'As a former prosecutor with almost a decade of experience enforcing criminal laws, I condemn all forms of illegal activity. That is especially true with respect to acts of violence against law enforcement,' Bove wrote in documents obtained by The Hill. 'At the same time, based on a variety of professional experiences, I find overreach and heavy-handed tactics by prosecutors and law enforcement to be equally unacceptable.' Tillis previously opposed the nomination of another Justice Department nominee, Ed Martin, who had said Jan. 6 rioters were unfairly prosecuted. 'It was just disqualifying. I mean — he literally was excusing some of the behavior of people who entered the building,' Tillis said of Martin. 'The president should know, if there is anyone coming up for a nomination through any committee of my jurisdiction that excused January the 6th, that they're not going to get confirmed in my remaining tenure in the U.S. Senate.' But speaking with The Hill on Tuesday, Tillis reiterated his plans to follow the staff recommendation on the Bove nomination. 'Right now, the staff has a yes recommendation. I don't see any reason to oppose them,' he said. 'Anybody who excuses that behavior has a problem with me,' Tillis said about Jan. 6, but said he hadn't seen that from Bove. 'But I haven't seen that yet, and Dick Durbin didn't add any to the conversation last week,' Tillis added. For his part, Grassley also pushed back on Reuveni's allegations, saying the documents released by Durbin didn't directly show wrongdoing by Bove. 'I do not believe that they substantiate any misconduct by Mr. Bove,' Grassley wrote in a Tuesday letter to Durbin. 'Almost none of the additional documents you published include, reference, or even cite Mr. Bove. Most of the communications merely reflect Administration attorneys internally debating or discussing litigation strategy and the scope of court orders. Debate about the scope of court orders is fundamentally inconsistent with an intention to ignore them.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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The 5 Senate seats most likely to flip
An already active start to the 2026 cycle has kicked into overdrive in recent weeks with a major retirement announcement, the passage of a key GOP priority and moves by candidates that could further scramble the chess board. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) made waves in the lead-up to the passage of President Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' by announcing he would not be seeking a third term next year, throwing the party's push of retaining the seat in flux. That was only a prelude, however, to the GOP getting its mammoth tax and spending package over the finish line by July 4, with the newly minted law set to potentially play a far-reaching role as Democrats try to tether Republicans to the Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) cuts that were included. Here's a mid-summer look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year. North Carolina By far the biggest change on this list is to the top spot as Tillis's decision to retire has further opened the door to Democrats being able to flip a seat they have long been eyeing. The seat was always considered a top-level race for both sides of the aisle, but the removal of the battle-tested incumbent from the field makes the effort more difficult for the GOP. In one clear sign of how tight the race is likely to be, the election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its rating from 'lean Republican' to 'toss up' after Tillis's announcement. Adding to the problems for Republicans is that the news seems to have pushed former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) closer to taking the plunge, potentially giving the minority party an A-level recruit and a real chance to flip the seat. Cooper, the former two-term governor, has never lost a statewide race in six attempts. On the GOP side, all eyes are on Lara Trump, the wife of Eric Trump and a Tar Heel State native. In the eyes of multiple Republican strategists, the nomination is hers if she wants it — but whether she wants it is an entirely different question. Lara Trump had a chance to run for the seat currently occupied by Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) in 2022, but passed on the opportunity. She was also floated as a possible appointee to fill the Senate seat of current Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Florida, but Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) ultimately tapped Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), an ally, instead. 'Lara Trump's very viable,' Budd recently told reporters at the Capitol, shooting down concerns that she has not lived in the state in many years. 'She's from Wilmington, she went to the same high school as Michael Jordan.' 'There's a great case to be made if she wants it. We of course would be supportive,' he added. Republicans also see an added bonus to her running: the chance to get the Trump name on the ballot, even in a midterm year. 'She has a golden last name and it's still a light red state,' one GOP operative with experience working on Senate races said. Georgia It's still early in the cycle, but Republican recruiting woes have emerged in several states, headlined by Georgia. The GOP is still in the throes of trying to figure out who will take on Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in a state where Republicans believe they have a real chance of flipping a seat that they shouldn't have lost in the first place. The GOP got its first major blow of the cycle when Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announced in May that he was sidestepping a Senate bid. Since then, it's been a real struggle for Republicans to find a top-tier candidate who could topple the incumbent Democrat. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) has already launched a campaign, but that has done little to stop top Republicans from looking elsewhere for their party's solutions. Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) indicated that he is taking a long, hard look at a bid. Some Republicans are also hoping that Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins, a former House member, gets the campaign itch once again. 'Georgia's going to be really tough. … Ossoff is not the best candidate, but he's figured out the way to make it work for himself and the state is changing. It's going to be very difficult,' said a second GOP operative who has worked on Senate races. 'You feel worse about Georgia than you do North Carolina — for sure,' the operative said 'Who's going to emerge [in the primary]? I think Jon Ossoff's a better candidate than I think people anticipated when he first got elected.' 'Not having Brian Kemp hurts,' the operative added. In fact, Democrats see Ossoff being a real net-positive in this race, especially given the uncertainty on the GOP side. Putting icing on the cake, the first-term Democrat raised more than $10 million between April and June, marking his second consecutive quarter with an eight-figure haul. He has $15.5 million in the bank. 'He's passionate. He cares. He fights for his state. … 'He's committed. He listens to them. He hears what their challenges are and he comes here to solve those problems,' said Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), who ran the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) when Ossoff won his race in 2020. 'That's a recipe for success in your state. Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), the only Republican defending a seat in a blue state next year, has had a difficult month. First, Republicans were able to pass the 'big, beautiful bill' without her support, putting her on record opposing cuts to Medicaid that could harm rural hospitals — but on the defensive back home about the GOP bill. Most recently, she voted against a White House request to claw back funding after repeatedly warning that the Trump administration was not going into enough detail about the impact of the cuts, which largely impact foreign aid and public broadcasters. As Senate Appropriations Committee chair, she is also trying to shepherd government funding through Congress amid accusations from Democrats that Republicans are poisoning the well with the bill to claw back funds. Democrats allege Collins is intentionally making moves to appeal to both sides. 'It's not an accident that Susan Collins is failing to stop the toxic GOP agenda,' said Tommy Garcia, a spokesperson for the Maine Democratic Party, in a statement. 'It's a carefully orchestrated political ploy to keep her seat while cutting Medicaid and delivering tax giveaways to billionaires. 'At the end of the day, Donald Trump and Washington Republicans know Susan Collins will have their back,' he added. Amid all of that, though, Collins can take solace at a few things heading into the second half of summer. A poll conducted by Pan Atlantic Research in May of 840 likely voters found her favorability rating four points above water in Maine And Democrats still do not have a candidate ready to take her on. Many in the party are pinning their hopes on Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) taking the plunge, but the 77-year-old has given little oxygen to the idea of a run. Absent Mills, the options are limited. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) made clear months ago he has no plans of challenging Collins. For now, the best chance for Democrats to take Collins down is seemingly for her to opt for retirement. Senate Republicans and operatives, however, believe she will seek a sixth term and find it hard to believe she will depart only months after securing the Appropriations gavel — her dream job. They also know that without her, the seat is most likely gone. Texas The Lone Star State is the lone new inclusion on the list as questions surround the political future of Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). Cornyn finds himself down by double digits in numerous polls to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), sparking fears among the GOP that Democrats have a real opening to nab a white whale: a Senate seat in Texas. To be sure, the four-term incumbent has a long history of success, especially in general elections. He's also a prolific fundraiser. Still, Republicans are nervous about whether he can overcome his opponent, who has been a MAGA stalwart — and who they believe will be a weaker general election candidate. 'Worried,' one Senate Republican told The Hill when asked about the mood within the GOP conference about Cornyn's reelection chances, adding that members are also concerned about the amount of money it will cost to help lift him out of the polling hole. Cornyn is facing a crucial stretch as his supporters go to the airwaves in a bid to determine the path forward. A Cornyn super PAC went up on the air on Wednesday, the first of a series of expected ads that is part of an effort to improve Cornyn's numbers and damage Paxton's. According to a third GOP operative, the hope is for some clarity in the race to arrive around Labor Day. Texas notoriously has an early candidate filing deadline — Dec. 8 this year. In that time, Cornyn's team must quickly figure out a cohesive message (or messages) to wield against Paxton, who is considered a walking opposition-research book among many Republicans even as he has an intense backing amongst some MAGA voters. The Texas AG was acquitted by the state Senate in 2023 after allegations of political bribery. He was also charged with securities fraud in 2015, with those eventually being dismissed earlier this year. Those problems were only highlighted in recent weeks when Angela Paxton, a Texas state senator and Paxton's wife, filed for divorce 'on biblical grounds,' citing 'recent discoveries.' 'The hard part of running against Ken Paxton … is there are so many things — it's hard to know which thing you have to center on,' the third GOP operative with experience working on Senate races said, arguing that chipping away at the populist Christian vote is crucial for the incumbent. This has prompted GOP leaders to prod Trump in search of an endorsement to boost Cornyn, but even the senator has admitted that doesn't seem to be coming yet. According to the strategist, Trump has made it clear in recent weeks that if he endorses anyone, it would likely be Cornyn. Awaiting the eventual nominee will likely be former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who lost last year to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by 8.5 percentage points even with massive Democratic spending in the state. If Paxton emerges to the general election, both sides of the aisle view this as a competitive race. 'Right now, it looks like Ken Paxton wins that primary, at least on paper. The other thing that same piece of paper shows is that Colin Allred beats Ken Paxton — and it can happen,' the second GOP operative said. Some are pushing back on that narrative, however. 'Even with the worst case scenario in Texas, the fundamentals remain solidly red just more expensive,' one national Republican strategist said. Michigan The battle to replace the retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) rounds out the list as Democrats find themselves in the midst of a nasty primary while top Republicans look to avoid one by boosting former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), their preferred candidate. Democrats are in the early stages of a three-way primary between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Stevens has opened the race as a slight favorite according to early surveys, with McMorrow and El-Sayed, who is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), trailing not far behind as they attempt to stake out their lanes and boost their name-ID in quick order. When asked to handicap the race, GOP operatives largely agreed on three things: that Stevens would be the toughest general election opponent, McMorrow has the biggest boom-or-bust potential in the field and that the best chance for Republicans to flip the seat involves El-Sayed becoming the nominee. 'He's going to invigorate their base. You've got to draw a stark contrast and you've got to hope you win enough independents. That's the game,' the first GOP operative said about El-Sayed. 'You need someone who's going to terrify our base.' Still, Rogers remains a question mark for some Republicans as they wonder why he could be successful this cycle after not being able to get across the finish line last year, when Trump was on the ballot and the environment was considered more favorable for Republicans. 'I don't know what changes that gives us an edge without him on the ballot,' the second strategist said. Some of Rogers' woes from the 2024 bid are also cropping up this cycle, headlined by lackluster fundraising that prompted complaints from many corners of the party during his initial Senate run. The former congressman only raised $745,000 in the second quarter and has $1.1 million in the bank. He raised an additional $779,000 for his joint fundraising account. By contrast, Stevens, McMorrow and El Sayed posted at least $1.8 million hauls, with the congresswoman leading the way with $2.8 million — $1.5 million of which was transferred from her House account. Rogers also might be facing a primary in short order as Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) is gearing up for a challenge. Still, while it's been decades since a Republican won a Senate seat in Michigan, the national Republican strategist contended the state is trending in their direction. The strategist noted that Sen. Elise Slotkin (D-Mich.), who defeated Rogers in 2024, won by less than 0.5 points after having the benefit of evading a competitive primary. 'While some speculate Texas is trending blue, the data tells a different story—Michigan remains the more competitive battleground,' the strategist said. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
