Latest news with #TillSawala
The Hill
12 hours ago
- Science
- The Hill
Milky Way has 50-50 chance of colliding with neighbor galaxy
The collision of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies that scientists believed was inevitable has a much lower probability than previously thought. The Associated Press reported Monday that astronomers in Finland have determined that our galaxy has a 50-50 chance of colliding with the neighboring Andromeda within the next 10 billion years. The previous theory suggested that the two galaxies had a high probability of colliding within the next five billion years. 'Based on the best available data, the fate of our galaxy is still completely open,' the team wrote in the study, which appeared in Nature Astronomy. A team led by University of Helsinki researcher Till Sawala simulated all possible scenarios using the latest data from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia star-tracking mission. According to the simulation yielded some surprising results. 'A head-on collision is very unlikely, we found a less than 2 percent chance for that,' Sawala said. 'In most of the cases that lead to a merger, the two galaxies will indeed fly past each other at first, which will lead to a loss of orbital energy, and subsequently to a merger. 'How close they come on their first passage is very uncertain, however, and if they don't come very close, meaning if their distance is more than around 500,000 light-years, they might not merge at all,' the researcher added. Sawala said he was not prepared for what his team found. 'In short, the probability went from near-certainty to a coin flip,' Sawala noted. The study relied on newer and more precise information, and the team took into consideration a 'more complete system,' including the potential effects of the Large Magellanic Cloud. The dwarf galaxy is the Milky Way's largest satellite galaxy, reported. Ultimately, the astronomers found that the Milky Way and Andromeda would inevitably collide if the two galaxies' orbits come close enough to affect a gravitational pull on one another. If they stay well separated, the merger won't happen. While the scenarios indicated a less likely merger between the two, they found that the Milky Way is far more likely to cannibalize the Large Magellanic Cloud. The research indicates that this newly theorized merger is likely to happen over the next two billion years.
Economic Times
2 days ago
- General
- Economic Times
'Not so fast': NASA shares a big update on 'end of the world' doomsday prediction
NASA, in collaboration with the European Space Agency, has updated its long-standing prediction about a future collision between the Milky Way and the Andromeda galaxy. A new study using data from the Hubble and Gaia space telescopes suggests that the once-assumed head-on crash is no longer a certainty. Researchers ran 100,000 simulations and found there's only a 50% chance the two galaxies will collide within the next 10 billion years. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Revisiting the Future of the Milky Way How Likely Is a Collision? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Other Galaxies Add to the Complexity Still a Small Chance of a Sooner Collision A Universe of Unknowns For over a century, scientists believed that a cosmic catastrophe awaited our galaxy. In 1912, astronomers noticed that the Andromeda galaxy appeared to be on a collision course with the Milky Way. In 2012, NASA's Hubble Space Telescope confirmed that Andromeda's sideways movement was minimal, reinforcing the idea of a direct hit in about 4 to 5 billion years. But now, a new study says that might not be the case after all.A new paper published in Nature Astronomy presents a very different outlook. Using data from both NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia observatory, astronomers have re-examined the previous prediction. The updated study, led by University of Helsinki astronomer Till Sawala, suggests the future isn't as certain as once believed.'We have the most comprehensive study of this problem today that actually folds in all the observational uncertainties,' said research team, which includes scientists from Durham University, the University of Toulouse, and the University of Western Australia, ran computer simulations to understand the long-term behavior of the Milky Way and Andromeda. Their conclusion? There's about a 50% chance of a collision occurring within the next 10 billion reach this finding, astronomers considered 22 variables and ran 100,000 simulations stretching far into the future. This method, known as Monte Carlo simulation, helps model outcomes with complex variables.'Because there are so many variables that each have their errors, that accumulates to rather large uncertainty about the outcome, leading to the conclusion that the chance of a direct collision is only 50% within the next 10 billion years,' said added that while the Milky Way and Andromeda might appear destined to merge, 'they could still go past each other.'The study also took into account the influence of other nearby galaxies — Andromeda's massive satellite M33, and the Milky Way's Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Both galaxies add gravitational forces that impact the trajectory and motion of the Milky Way and Andromeda.'The extra mass of Andromeda's satellite galaxy M33 pulls the Milky Way a little bit more towards it. However, we also show that the LMC pulls the Milky Way off the orbital plane and away from Andromeda. It doesn't mean that the LMC will save us from that merger, but it makes it a bit less likely,' Sawala with the revised outlook, a head-on collision remains possible, albeit unlikely. The new data still allows for a 2% chance that the two galaxies might collide in just 4 to 5 billion years — a scenario similar to earlier Earth's habitability will be long gone by then, as scientists estimate the Sun will make the planet too hot for life within 1 billion years, and will itself burn out in about 5 billion study reflects how astronomical predictions continue to evolve as better data becomes available. 'Even using the latest and most precise observational data available, the future of the Local Group of several dozen galaxies is uncertain,' said Sawala. 'Intriguingly, we find an almost equal probability for the widely publicized merger scenario, or, conversely, an alternative one where the Milky Way and Andromeda survive unscathed.'NASA and ESA's Hubble Space Telescope, which has been operational for over 30 years, remains a cornerstone of space exploration . The ongoing collaboration between international teams continues to reshape what we know — and what we think we know — about the future of our galaxy.
Time of India
2 days ago
- General
- Time of India
'Not so fast': NASA shares a big update on 'end of the world' doomsday prediction
NASA, in collaboration with the European Space Agency, has updated its long-standing prediction about a future collision between the Milky Way and the Andromeda galaxy. A new study using data from the Hubble and Gaia space telescopes suggests that the once-assumed head-on crash is no longer a certainty. Researchers ran 100,000 simulations and found there's only a 50% chance the two galaxies will collide within the next 10 billion years. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Revisiting the Future of the Milky Way How Likely Is a Collision? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Other Galaxies Add to the Complexity Still a Small Chance of a Sooner Collision A Universe of Unknowns For over a century, scientists believed that a cosmic catastrophe awaited our galaxy. In 1912, astronomers noticed that the Andromeda galaxy appeared to be on a collision course with the Milky Way. In 2012, NASA's Hubble Space Telescope confirmed that Andromeda's sideways movement was minimal, reinforcing the idea of a direct hit in about 4 to 5 billion years. But now, a new study says that might not be the case after all.A new paper published in Nature Astronomy presents a very different outlook. Using data from both NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia observatory, astronomers have re-examined the previous prediction. The updated study, led by University of Helsinki astronomer Till Sawala, suggests the future isn't as certain as once believed.'We have the most comprehensive study of this problem today that actually folds in all the observational uncertainties,' said research team, which includes scientists from Durham University, the University of Toulouse, and the University of Western Australia, ran computer simulations to understand the long-term behavior of the Milky Way and Andromeda. Their conclusion? There's about a 50% chance of a collision occurring within the next 10 billion reach this finding, astronomers considered 22 variables and ran 100,000 simulations stretching far into the future. This method, known as Monte Carlo simulation, helps model outcomes with complex variables.'Because there are so many variables that each have their errors, that accumulates to rather large uncertainty about the outcome, leading to the conclusion that the chance of a direct collision is only 50% within the next 10 billion years,' said added that while the Milky Way and Andromeda might appear destined to merge, 'they could still go past each other.'The study also took into account the influence of other nearby galaxies — Andromeda's massive satellite M33, and the Milky Way's Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Both galaxies add gravitational forces that impact the trajectory and motion of the Milky Way and Andromeda.'The extra mass of Andromeda's satellite galaxy M33 pulls the Milky Way a little bit more towards it. However, we also show that the LMC pulls the Milky Way off the orbital plane and away from Andromeda. It doesn't mean that the LMC will save us from that merger, but it makes it a bit less likely,' Sawala with the revised outlook, a head-on collision remains possible, albeit unlikely. The new data still allows for a 2% chance that the two galaxies might collide in just 4 to 5 billion years — a scenario similar to earlier Earth's habitability will be long gone by then, as scientists estimate the Sun will make the planet too hot for life within 1 billion years, and will itself burn out in about 5 billion study reflects how astronomical predictions continue to evolve as better data becomes available. 'Even using the latest and most precise observational data available, the future of the Local Group of several dozen galaxies is uncertain,' said Sawala. 'Intriguingly, we find an almost equal probability for the widely publicized merger scenario, or, conversely, an alternative one where the Milky Way and Andromeda survive unscathed.'NASA and ESA's Hubble Space Telescope, which has been operational for over 30 years, remains a cornerstone of space exploration . The ongoing collaboration between international teams continues to reshape what we know — and what we think we know — about the future of our galaxy.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- General
- Yahoo
Is this the end of the world? How a galactic pile-up could bring Earth's violent finish: Cosmic ‘coin flip'
Forget killer asteroids and nuclear annihilation — Earth's ultimate fate may hinge on a cosmic coin toss. Astronomers have revealed that our Milky Way galaxy has a 50/50 chance of colliding with its massive neighbor, the Andromeda galaxy, sometime in the next 10 billion years — an intergalactic smash-up that could fling our solar system into deep space or swallow Earth whole. Cue the sci-fi panic — or not. 'It used to appear destined to merge with Andromeda forming a colossal 'Milkomeda,'' said Professor Alis Deason, a computational cosmologist at Durham University, per The Daily Mail. 'Now, there is a chance that we could avoid this fate entirely.' In other words: The end of the world may not be as inevitable as we thought — at least not from the galaxy next door. The new study, published in 'Nature Astronomy,' analyzed 100,000 simulations of the Milky Way's future. The findings — thanks to refined data from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia mission — dramatically downshifted previous predictions of a guaranteed galactic pile-up in just 5 billion years. 'In short, the probability went from near-certainty to a coin flip,' lead author Dr. Till Sawala, of the University of Helsinki, revealed to The findings factor in the gravitational tug of neighboring galaxies — most notably the Large Magellanic Cloud, a much smaller satellite galaxy whose pull may be yanking the Milky Way off a crash course. 'The main difference between our research and previous studies is that we benefited from newer and more precise data, and that we considered a more complete system,' Sawala said to the site. While a 220,000 mph galaxy-on-galaxy collision sounds catastrophic, astronomers say a head-on impact is 'very unlikely.' In fact, only 2% of simulations showed a direct hit within 5 billion years. Most scenarios had the galaxies swirling toward each other, possibly merging much later — or not at all. Still, if they do collide, it could be a literal star show. 'We see external galaxies often colliding and merging with other galaxies, sometimes producing the equivalent of cosmic fireworks,' said Durham cosmologist Professor Carlos Frenk, via The Daily Mail. 'Until now, we thought this was the fate that awaited our Milky Way galaxy. We now know that there is a very good chance that we may avoid that scary destiny.' But even if Earth sidesteps this stellar shakedown, don't get too comfortable. As The Post previously reported, our sun is expected to become a bloated red giant in about 5 billion years — likely boiling away Earth's oceans or swallowing the planet entirely. So, yeah. Pick your apocalypse. 'If [the Milky Way-Andromeda collision] happens, it might take place after the Earth and the sun no longer exist,' Sawala told The Daily Mail. 'Even if it happens before that, it's very unlikely that something would happen to Earth in this case.' Translation: By the time the universe gets around to smashing the Milky Way, we'll probably already be toast. Still, some experts say galactic fate is more than just an astronomer's obsession. 'The fate of our Milky Way galaxy is a subject of broad interest — not just to astronomers,' Raja GuhaThakurta of the University of California, Santa Cruz, told the Associated Press. And while the galaxy might survive — barely — we may not. As Sawala put it: 'Of course, there is also a very significant chance that humanity will bring an end to itself still much before that, without any need for astrophysical help.' Talk about a stellar self-own.
The Hindu
3 days ago
- General
- The Hindu
Looming clash between Milky Way, Andromeda may not happen after all
It turns out that looming collision between our Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies might not happen after all. Astronomers reported Monday that the probability of the two spiral galaxies colliding is less than previously thought, with a 50-50 chance within the next 10 billion years. That's essentially a coin flip, but still better odds than previous estimates and farther out in time. 'As it stands, proclamations of the impending demise of our galaxy seem greatly exaggerated,' the Finnish-led team wrote in a study appearing in Nature Astronomy. While good news for the Milky Way galaxy, the latest forecast may be moot for humanity. 'We likely won't live to see the benefit," lead author Till Sawala of the University of Helsinki said in an email. Already more than 4.5 billion years old, the sun is on course to run out of energy and die in another 5 billion years or so, but not before becoming so big it will engulf Mercury, Venus, and possibly the earth. Even if it doesn't swallow the earth, the home planet will be left a burnt ball, its oceans long since boiled away. Sawala's international team relied on the latest observations by NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia star-surveying spacecraft to simulate the possible scenarios facing the Milky Way and next-door neighbour Andromeda. Both already collided with other galaxies in their ancient past and, according to many, seemed destined for a head-on crash. Past theories put a collision between the two — resulting in a new elliptical galaxy dubbed Milkomeda — as probable if not inevitable. Some predictions had that happening within 5 billion years, if not sooner. For this new study, the scientists relied on updated galaxy measurements to factor in the gravitational pull on the Milky Way's movement through the universe. They found that the effects of the neighbouring Triangulum galaxy increased the likelihood of a merger between the Milky Way and Andromeda, while the Large Magellanic Cloud decreased those chances. Despite lingering uncertainty over the position, motion and mass of all these galaxies, the scientists ended up with 50-50 odds of a collision within the next 10 billion years. 'The fate of our Milky Way galaxy is a subject of broad interest — not just to astronomers,' said Raja GuhaThakurta of the University of California, Santa Cruz, who was not involved in the study. A full-on collision, he noted, would transform our home galaxy from a disk of stars seen as a milky band of diffuse light across the sky into a milky blob. A harmless flyby of the two galaxies could leave this stellar disk largely undisturbed, thus preserving our galaxy's name. More work is needed before the Milky Way's fate can be predicted with accuracy, according to the researchers. Further insight should help scientists better understand what's happening among galaxies even deeper in the cosmos. While our galaxy's fate remains highly uncertain, the sun's future is 'pretty much sealed," according to Sawala. 'Of course, there is also a very significant chance that humanity will bring an end to itself still much before that, without any need for astrophysical help."
