6 days ago
80 years after Hiroshima, the threat of nuclear weapons has not receded
During World War Two the US created a weapon no other nation had.
It's first target was Hiroshima in Japan. Narrator: 'Beneath that sinister pall of smoke, the world's most destructive force on earth has been unleashed.' The US had spent three years buildings these nuclear weapons in secret, but the global dynamic had shifted after August 6th 1945. Associate Professor Tilman Ruff is the co-founder of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.
"The cat was out of the bag once Hiroshima was used."
Dr James Dwyer, a strategic studies lecturer from the University of Tasmania, says that as the Cold War began, so did the global race to develop nuclear bombs, and fast. "We saw weapons arsenals increase from a handful to multiple thousands of weapons." Nine countries are now believed to have nuclear weapons; they are the US, Russia, China, France, the UK, North Korea, Israel, India and Pakistan. There are just over 12,000 warheads in the global stockpile, and US and Russia own about 90 per cent of them. Only one nation, Israel, refuses to disclose if they have any and maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity. "It's a strategic play by Israel. They can hold the threat of of nuclear weapons over potential adversaries without formally declaring themselves as a nuclear state which could invite sanctions."
Another signatory to the treaty, Iran, which the UN's watchdog believes stockpiled uranium, enriched just beneath the level needed to make a nuclear bomb.
That production ramped up following US President Donald Trump's withdrawal of the nuclear deal made with Iran in 2018. Israel and the US attempted to destroy Iran's nuclear program in June, despite Iran long insisting it was purely for civilian use. It's still unclear what damage was caused, but analysts widely believe the uranium had been moved already, and could increase the chances of Iran being able to build a nuclear weapon. "They're more likely to build nuclear capabilities in secret now than before these attacks, I think is a profound risk that these attacks have aggravated." "From the Iranian perspective, the only thing now that could probably guarantee the long-term survival of the regime is a nuclear capability, is nuclear deterrence. Whether this is to deter Iran, I am suspicious and I don't think it would have in fact, I think it would have gone the other way."
Since the 1960s, multiple treaties have been set up aimed at limiting the spread of nuclear weapons.
The most significant was the non-proliferation treaty, or the NPT, officially brought into force by 1970 and which has since been signed by 191 states. "Essentially the deal was the then 5 nuclear-armed states, France, US, UK, Soviet Union would disarm their weapons in exchange for the rest of the world not acquiring nuclear weapons."
Research published last month found China is stockpiling nuclear weapons at the fastest rate in the world.
It HAD been lagging behind other powerful nations, but now has 600 nuclear warheads, 100 of them added to their arsenal in just the last two years.
If Beijing continues at this rate, by 2035, it could have 1,500 nukes, which is nearly as many as Russia and the US currently have ready for use at short notice. "We're seeing escalating investments in the modernisation of nuclear weapons, not the disarmament that we've been promised for decades, but developing new stealthier longer range, faster, more accurate, more flexible nuclear weapons. This is not the sign of governments that are that are going to get serious about those disarmament obligations anytime soon." Efforts to disarm have stalled, and China's emergence as a key nuclear power has also complicated negotiations towards a new treaty next year. "I do think where significant risk of seeing greater nuclear proliferation moving forward if tensions continue between China and others in the Asia Pacific. If we see the US continue to act somewhat erratically and or allies lose faith in the US's ability to to offer coverage with their nuclear umbrella." It's now feared the US announcement of an ambitious new defence system, which would include elements in space, will in turn accelerate the race further.
