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New York Times
28-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
MLB trade deadline Urgency Index 3.0: Who needs what? Who needs it the most?
Trade deadline week is finally here. And so is the third and final version of The Athletic's Urgency Index — our look at which teams need a boost the most over the next four days. It's been fascinating to see the ways this list has evolved since it first ran on June 12 and again on July 2. Each time, for instance, the team that needed a bat the most acquired one: San Francisco brought in Rafael Devers, and Seattle traded for Josh Naylor. (We have a good feeling we'll go 3-for-3 on that one.) Like each of the last two times, it's Tim Britton breaking down bats, Eno Sarris on starters and Aaron Gleeman on relievers. The void in San Diego's left field could fill, I don't know, something the size of a warehouse. The Padres rank 28th in left-field production this season, which has improved since they moved Gavin Sheets there from DH. Problem is, their DHs now rank 29th in production across the majors. The Padres have scored two runs or fewer 11 times in the past month. Advertisement The bad news is San Diego desperately needs to add a bat to that mix, and desperation isn't a great look in late July. The good news is that the bar is so low for improvement that the Padres' lineup will look much better with even a league-average bat in left. The Friars could look to upgrade behind the plate as well. If you check out the major-league leaders in offense in July, the Astros remain a Top 10 outfit. So why do they rank so highly here? The injury to Isaac Paredes might prove to be one too many maladies to overcome. Paredes joins Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers as key bats on the IL. And according to manager Joe Espada, Paredes' hamstring strain is 'pretty significant.' Houston could especially use a left-handed bat; no team in the majors has had fewer plate appearances from lefty hitters, and as Chandler Rome pointed out, that also means the Astros' right-handed hitters seldom see lefty pitching. While Houston has some flexibility with where to add, the best left-handed bat likely to move on this market, Baltimore's Ryan O'Hearn, is an imperfect fit. Tampa Bay's Brandon Lowe, Baltimore's Cedric Mullins and Miami's Jesús Sánchez are other lefty bats who could be dealt in the coming days. Way back on June 12, when we did this exercise the first time, we wrote, 'Right now, no, Detroit doesn't need another bat. In 50ish days? We wouldn't be surprised.' Surprise! The Tigers have been a bottom-two offense in July, ahead of only the Pirates in OPS. Javier Báez, now back at shortstop, has taken a step back at the same time as Trey Sweeney, and the guys now playing center in Báez's place are all slumping. One more bat capable of helping out either in center or on the left side of the infield should permit manager A.J. Hinch to field a deeper lineup on a daily basis. The Mets' main issues are at third base (24th in the majors in OPS) and center field (29th). At the moment, they're disinclined to add externally at third, believing some combination of Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio can acquit itself there. In center, Jeff McNeil's on-the-fly transition has helped, but playing McNeil in center leaves open another hole at second. Oh, both their veteran DHs have recently been on the IL. Trusting one position to that trio of young players is one thing, trusting two or three is riskier for a team with the Mets' aspirations. Adding a league-average bat who can handle center would simplify things for manager Carlos Mendoza. Shohei Ohtani is Shohei Ohtani, Andy Páges has broken out, and Will Smith is having the most overlooked monster season by a catcher in memory. (Thanks a lot, Cal Raleigh.) But those developments can't fully mitigate a seriously subpar year from Mookie Betts, a step back by Freddie Freeman and Michael Conforto's nightmare season in left. Advertisement As with some other teams on this list, the Dodgers possess enough defensive flexibility that they don't need to add at any one specific position. (It's probably easiest in the corner outfield, though.) One more bat would get this lineup back to the well-oiled machine it needed to be last year to win a championship. An ERA near three over the last month and the return of Shota Imanaga might make this situation feel less dire, but there are still some warning signs that suggest the Cubs need a starting pitcher (and maybe more than one) more urgently than any other playoff contender. That ERA, for one, has not been supported by peripherals, and their strikeout-minus-walk rate was 20th-best in the last 30 days. And though Imanaga's velocity sometimes oscillates, last time out he sat under 90 mph for the first time in his MLB career. If you look at a projection system that uses stuff under the hood, you'll see that the Cubs rotation is 25th best going forward. The team's top three starters would be worst or second worst in the playoffs no matter what projection system you use. The Cubs could use a front-end starter and maybe also a back-end arm to shore up this staff. The last month in Queens has exposed some of the worries that projections had pointed out for a while now. The Mets rotation has the 18th-best ERA over the last month, the 22nd-best strikeout-minus-walk rate, and the 20th-best WAR. David Peterson has been the only reliable option week-in and week-out. With Clay Holmes so far out in front of his past innings totals, there has to be some question there even if you like the talent. Sean Manaea coming back has been good news, but the velocity isn't all the way back. Kodai Senga also came back with reduced velo. FanGraphs' depth charts have the Mets as the 18th best going forward even with these guys, and their top three options as 16th best. New York could make an impact on its rotation with an arm of any quality, really. The Blue Jays rotation is OK. Over the last month, it has had an ERA near four with good peripherals (the fifth-best strikeout-minus-walk rate) and the 10th-best Wins Above Replacement. Going forward, FanGraphs has the group as the 16th best by WAR. There are credible veterans on this squad who know how to pitch. Advertisement But for a team that will lose some key players in the offseason, and has others who are definitively past their peaks, it's worth wondering if they should seize the opportunity they have right now. This is not a rotation with outstanding stuff – could an Edward Cabrera make sense? Lightning in a bottle? A kid with a 96 mph changeup? Boston has played its way into the playoff picture, thanks in huge part to its lineup, which has been a top-three unit over the last month. Its rotation has been OK, with the sixth-best ERA, ninth-best WAR, and 12th-best strikeout-minus-walk rate, but it still has a shaky back end. Richard Fitts has some intriguing stuff but hasn't solidified himself as a major league starter yet, and Walker Buehler is one of the most inconsistent starters in the big leagues. Its top three projects to be the fifth best in baseball, so maybe the Red Sox don't have to shop at the top of the market. But that doesn't mean there isn't any urgency to add an arm to better take advantage of this team-wide surge. Michael King is on his way back. Dylan Cease just put together his best two-start stretch this year and has been killing it all season by strikeouts and walks. Nick Pivetta gives them a fine third starter in a playoff situation. It's time to worry about Yu Darvish, who has come back with reduced stuff and a lack of command that has not produced results. Stephen Kolek did throw 140-plus innings in 2022, but there might be some worry of fatigue down the stretch for the re-converted starter. And Randy Vasquez has the widest gap between peripherals and results in baseball. A back-end starter makes sense for San Diego. New York's bullpen has collapsed in July, ranking No. 29 out of 30 teams in both ERA (7.10) and Win Probability Added (minus-1.9), including a 10-run implosion Friday that likely sent a pretty strong message to the front office that significant relief help is needed. With at most three trusted relievers in Devin Williams, Luke Weaver and Tim Hill, the Yankees could be shopping at the top of the reliever market. And with Williams and Weaver both impending free agents, the Yankees could look to target a late-inning arm under team control beyond this season. On one hand, signing 40-year-old David Robertson to a two-month, $6 million deal adds much-needed reinforcements to the Phillies' bullpen. On the other hand, that's seemingly not the type of move that will close the door on the pursuit of relief help for a team that has featured prominently on all three versions of this index. Philadelphia's bullpen ranks 22nd in ERA (4.27) and 25th in WPA (0.4), and no other contending team is 20th or worse in both categories. Dave Dombrowski has a long history of targeting meaningful bullpen upgrades at the deadline, so Robertson may simply be the start of relief moves. Detroit's bullpen ERA has gotten substantially worse each month, going from 2.90 in April and 3.87 in May to 4.44 in June and 6.10 in July. In particular, the lack of late-inning arms with bat-missing raw stuff stands out as an obvious weakness for the playoffs, as the Tigers' bullpen has the AL's lowest strikeout rate overall. It's possible the Tigers could pursue a high-end, team-controlled reliever to build around beyond this year, although complicating matters is that several of the most appealing targets on the market belong to the division rival Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians. Despite a bunch of recent losses, the Dodgers have the benefit of knowing they'll be headed to the playoffs, so they can pursue bullpen help looking for an October impact rather than merely depth to get through the regular season. That means big names should be in play, with plenty of money and prospect capital to work with. Even if the Dodgers are confident injured relievers Tanner Scott, Blake Treinen and Michael Kopech will be part of the playoff picture, pursuing high-end relief help is a no-brainer given the rest of the roster and the risk of letting late-inning issues ruin Los Angeles' title defense. Tampa Bay's success over the past decade-plus has largely been built on excellent bullpens, but this year is a different story. Rays relievers rank in the middle of the pack with a 3.93 ERA, but even that is their worst mark as a team since 2016. And their minus-1.8 WPA, which ranks 27th in MLB, is their worst mark since 2007. At minimum, the Rays seem likely to pursue an under-the-radar reliever, with the goal of turning him into a reliable high-leverage option. But the always creative Rays could also dip their toes in the deep end and take a bigger swing at one of the most prominent names in the reliever market. (Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Gregory Fisher / Icon Sportswire, Ishika Samant, Jasen Vinlove / Getty Images)
New York Times
23-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
MLB trade deadline Big Board 3.0: The Top 50 players who could be on the move
By Tim Britton, Aaron Gleeman, Chad Jennings and Eno Sarris There's just over one week left until the MLB trade deadline, and one week until we find out. After months of speculation, the vapor of rumor will clarify into honest-to-goodness action, as executives around the league reveal how they really feel about their teams. Advertisement It's the best week of the regular season. Welcome to the third and final version of our Trade Deadline Big Board. Since our last Big Board in the second week of July, we've seen the Red Sox rise and the Rays retreat, the Brewers billow and the Giants stumble. Nobody from the middle of the AL Central has stepped forward, and neither Atlanta nor Baltimore has made a compelling case to chase after preseason expectations. We're still largely looking at players on teams with less than a 30 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. In many instances, the question is less about whether the team will sell than the extent of that teardown. But we're also keeping an eye on teams that may thread the needle and seek to move a major-league player off its roster while adding a better fit elsewhere. So that's why there are players here on teams we still expect to be net buyers. Some bookkeeping: The player's listed age is how old he was on June 30, B/T is the classic bats/throws, the money owed is via Baseball Prospectus and covers only the days after July 31, the WARs are updated through Sunday and from FanGraphs, the likelihood of being dealt is a best-guess projection (from red as unlikely through yellow to green as likely) and the rankings are beyond reproach. Value: Team-controlled front-line starter Analysis: Minnesota isn't itching to move Ryan, who is 29 and under team control for two seasons beyond this one, but it's easy to understand why teams will be calling the Twins about him just in case. Coming off his first All-Star honor, Ryan is a proven front-line starter with a career 3.67 ERA who pounds the zone and racks up whiffs, posting MLB's seventh-best K/BB ratio since his 2021 debut. Ryan might be effectively off limits even if the Twins are in seller mode, but some contenders could try to blow them away with an offer. Among all qualified starters the past two seasons, Ryan ranks second to only Tarik Skubal in K/BB ratio (6.1/1) and is also fourth in opponents' batting average (.207) and 10th in ERA (3.15). Value: Controllable do-everything outfielder Analysis: To be clear: There's little reason for Boston to even entertain offers for Duran unless the return is substantial. His production has predictably fallen short of his 2024 breakout, but Duran remains a solidly above-average hitter with lots of speed and the ability to play center field. Perhaps most importantly, he's under team control through 2028, making him a player that teams can build around. Of course, even with a sudden influx of stud prospects joining the lineup, the Red Sox could continue to build around him, too. The Padres have already been linked to Duran and surely they won't be alone. Value: Reliable right-handed power bat Analysis: Even if the Diamondbacks don't sell all their impending free agents, moving Suárez to acquire future help while maneuvering with other deals to buttress the roster would be the kind of thing Mike Hazen has done before, most notably when he traded away Zack Greinke in 2019 but also brought in Mike Leake and Zac Gallen. Nobody on this list has hit more career homers than Suárez or more homers since the start of 2023. Rafael Devers will end up as the best bat moved this season. Suárez has a solid case for No. 2. Value: Top five (at least) closer in baseball Analysis: If you haven't checked in a while, you might remember that Clase was having a shockingly bad season. He finished the month of April with twice as many earned runs as he allowed all of last year. But that's changed. Since the beginning of May, the righty has a low-ones ERA with his customary command and stuff, and zero homers allowed. Clase is an institution in Cleveland and is signed through 2026 with $10-million club options in '27 and '28, so he'll probably stay put — but that salary still makes him more likely to move than teammate (and eventual replacement?) Cade Smith on that league minimum contract. A low-spending team like the Guardians might have to cash in while they're having a sub-.500 season. Value: Elite defender with pop Analysis: Abreu, like Duran, could become expendable in Boston thanks to the wave of young bats. But he's also young enough (26) and under team control for long enough (2029) to be part of the Red Sox's long-term plan, putting them in the driver's seat for any potential negotiations. Even if the Red Sox are open to trading Abreu, there's no rush to do so now. He's putting up very good numbers at the plate that are in line with his strong rookie showing, and he will be in the mix for a second Gold Glove Award and won't even be arbitration eligible until 2027. Value: Flame-throwing closer Analysis: Duran has three dominant pitches and the unhittable results to match, pairing a triple-digit fastball with two swing-and-miss breaking balls for a 2.40 ERA in four MLB seasons. Minnesota's closer for the past three years, Duran often overpowers hitters. And until Shohei Ohtani got to him on Tuesday night, he had gone more than 70 innings (dating back to last season) without allowing a homer. Duran is one of the league's best relievers, still cheap and under team control through 2027, so the Twins will likely ask for the moon and might be able to get it somewhere. He has the ability to transform an entire bullpen and ranks second to Devin Williams in reliever Win Probability Added since 2022. Value: Late bloomer in the rotation Analysis: Lugo had a breakout season in 2024, pitching more than 200 innings with a 3.00 ERA and finishing second in AL Cy Young Award voting. Now 35, his surface-level numbers are almost identical this year. The pitch and batted ball data suggest he's not been as good as a year ago, but Lugo has remained plenty effective. He has a player option for 2026 he's unlikely to exercise barring injury, meaning the right-hander should be considered a rental. Value: Solid mid-rotation starter Analysis: On a staff that's lost Corbin Burnes and can't find the proper versions of Zac Gallen and Eduardo Rodriguez, it's Kelly that's been the standout. He's got a deep six-pitch mix and command, and is producing numbers that don't look out of place given his upper-threes career ERA, but he doesn't quite have the stuff and strikeout numbers of a Game 1 or even a Game 2 October starter. He could be the first to go if the Diamondbacks sell, however, since he's a free agent at the close of the season. Value: Cy Young winner searching for form Analysis: Which version of Alcantara is actually on the market? The 2022 Cy Young winner excelled then by keeping the ball in the park and on the ground. But he took a step back in 2023, went under the knife for Tommy John surgery and has returned this year without the command that makes his mix work. He ditched his slider earlier this year and started to look like the Sandy of old — right up until this most recent blip, in which he's given up almost a run per inning over four starts. Since June 1, the walk rate is one-third of what it was before then, and so there's reason to believe Alcantara's worst is behind him. He isn't a pitcher who strikes out the lineup, but he is a potential playoff starter, and the supply of those is very limited this deadline. Value: Bat-missing set-up man Analysis: Jax has had an odd year as the Twins' primary set-up man, posting a mediocre ERA despite 14.2 strikeouts per nine innings and just four homers allowed. It stems largely from an unsustainably high .379 BABIP, aside from which he's been a high-end reliever for the fourth straight season. Trading away Jax would signal full-on sell mode for the Twins, because he's under team control through 2027 and every bit as essential to their bullpen as Jhoan Duran. Weird innings seem to always find Jax at bad times, but he has a 3.19 ERA with 308 strikeouts in 251 frames since becoming a full-time reliever. Value: Rising star fulfilling potential Analysis: Nobody on this list is pitching better right now than Cabrera, whose ERA is just above two since the final week of May. There's good reason to believe this is a real transformation: Cabrera dropped his arm slot, added a sinker, and moved to the curve over the slider. He's not walking nearly as many hitters as he used to. All this makes it both harder to trade the right-hander, who's under team control through 2028, and more tantalizing to do so for a higher-quality return. Value: Dependable starter signed through 2028 Analysis: Drafted in 2014 and signed to an extension 10 years later, Keller is a homegrown Pirates starter who made an All-Star team in 2023 and has finished with an ERA between 3.90 and 4.25 in each of the past four seasons. He's not an ace, but he's a dependable arm with team control through his early 30s (his extension goes through 2028). The Pirates have enough young pitching to consider moving one of their more established starters, and Keller has a blend of consistency and contractual control that teams covet. Value: Proven starter having down season Analysis: Gallen's inconsistent season has mirrored Arizona's on the whole. Each time he looks like his old self, he follows it up with a string of pedestrian outings. The stuff has really regressed, and the peripheral numbers support an ERA that lives in the mid-to-high fours. So an acquiring team here is really betting on the track record of a 29-year-old who, until this season, had always been good. Gallen is a free agent at the end of the season. Value: Power bat from the middle infield Analysis: Few teams have seen their playoff odds fluctuate as much as Tampa Bay over the last two months. The Rays are one of the clear in-between teams at this deadline, and that's a status they seized on just last year (albeit with worse playoff odds than currently). The market is similarly bereft of impact bats, and Lowe would provide a jolt for a contender. Lowe is on pace to hit 30 homers for the first time since 2021. He's still better suited to sit against lefties, and advanced metrics are very down on his second-base defense this season. Healthy through the first three months of the season, Lowe has required a pair of IL stints in July for oblique tightness and ankle tendinitis. His current absence is not expected to last long into August, if at all. Value: Contact maestro and Gold Glover Analysis: A Guardians team in desperate need of offensive production, especially from the outfield, dealing Kwan would qualify as a significant surprise. However, there have been enough conversations around Kwan — and the market is so lacking of offensive production — that perhaps Cleveland gets a deal it can't turn down for the All-Star. Kwan's contact skills make him unique in the sport; he almost never swings and misses, let alone strikes out. However, his overall offense has taken a step back from last season, thanks in part to a wrist injury he's been nursing since May. He's been just over 5 percent better than the league average. While he's a Gold Glover in left field, Kwan's lack of power would probably be more acceptable to an acquiring team if he could play center more often. Value: Lefty hitter in career year Analysis: Whatever has gone wrong in Baltimore this season, it has not been O'Hearn's fault. In 2025, the pending free agent has been as good a hitter as anyone on this list, putting together a career year at an opportune time. He's maintained most of the drop in strikeout rate he displayed last season, he's added to what was then a doubling of his previous walk rate, and he's performed well enough that his expected numbers align with his improvement across the board. While he's seen more at-bats against left-handed pitching this season, he's still much better suited to being the long half of a platoon at first or DH. Value: Solid middle-of-the-order contributor Analysis: Traded last winter to Arizona after making his first All-Star team, Naylor is in the midst of perhaps his best season. His average is up around .300 thanks to some better batted-ball luck and his strikeout rate is way down. Only a dozen qualified hitters strike out less often than Naylor, and among them only Mookie Betts and his old teammate José Ramírez hit with his kind of power. (That's never bad company to keep.) Value: Long-term fix at catcher Analysis:When the Braves traded for and immediately extended Murphy in December 2022, it would have been hard to imagine they'd consider trading him less than three years later. But Atlanta's 2025 chances keep getting slimmer, and the homegrown Drake Baldwin has emerged as a worthy replacement behind the plate. All of that makes Murphy an exceedingly rare commodity: an everyday catcher who was recently an All-Star and is in the midst of another strong season. At a position of scarcity, Murphy could be a short-term solution with long-term impact. Value: All-Star reliever returning to form Analysis: Optioned to Triple A on the first day of April, Bednar rebounded to be named the NL's Reliever of the Month in June. His ERA since returning to the majors in mid-April is under two, and the right-hander has made 2024's rough campaign look like an aberration. He's striking out more than a third of opposing hitters and is showcasing the best walk rate of his career. Value: All-around center fielder Analysis: Mullins doesn't hit for high averages, but he has 20-homer power and 30-steal speed, and few center fielders have a more impressive highlight reel of jaw-dropping catches. As a 30-year-old impending free agent, he might not be part of Baltimore's plans any longer. Legit center fielders with above-average bats are typically very hard to find at the deadline. But the Orioles could opt to keep Mullins and take their chances with draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer. Either way, they won't have much motivation to move Mullins for a marginal return. Value: Slumping former All-Star Analysis: Perhaps the season has gone south enough for Atlanta and for Albies that a player with notoriously inexpensive team control through 2027 becomes available. Albies is in the midst of his worst big-league season by far, and since 2022, he's posted a league-average OPS while missing significant time with injuries. There's still value in the talent and the contract for an acquiring team, and Atlanta's farm system could use a kickstart. Value: Right-handed power hitter Analysis: Seemingly an annual candidate to be moved at the deadline, Ward is a good right-handed power bat whose late-blooming career path has him under team control through 2026 despite already being 31. Ward has 25-homer power, generally crushing left-handers and holding his own against right-handers while posting an above-average OPS+ for the fifth straight season. But will the Angels finally decide to move him? Value: Elite bat for hire Analysis: As an impending free agent who slugged 79 homers the last two years, Ozuna's the most obvious piece for disappointing Atlanta to move. However, outside of a significant jump in walk rate, everything else is down this season. He's on pace for barely 20 homers as a strict DH, and his OPS has steadily declined since early June. He's been sitting of late. Ozuna also has 10-and-5 rights, allowing him to veto any trade. Value: High-end super-utility player Analysis: Castro can play anywhere, making at least 50 career starts at seven positions, and he's a switch hitter with good speed and an above-average bat, posting a 111 wRC+ in three years with the Twins. That makes him a smooth fit in just about any lineup as either a high-end utility player or a solid regular. Value: High-stuff young starter with potential Analysis: Teams don't usually trade 24-year-old righties that sit 96 and have struck out over a quarter of the batters they've seen while starting for a team in the AL East, but the Rays aren't normal like that. The Rays will also know that Bradley has poor command that isn't improving, that he hasn't developed an elite out pitch yet, that his stuff is declining already, and that his strikeout rate has started to look pedestrian. Then again, so will the other teams. Value: Closer with strong track record Analysis: Helsley figured to be one of the big fish available at the deadline — at least until the Cardinals perched themselves firmly in the postseason picture early in the season. St. Louis said recently it doesn't intend to deal from its bullpen, but it will re-assess throughout July — and their playoff odds have been steadily dropping throughout the month. A closer who's received down-ballot Cy Young votes in two of the last three seasons, Helsley hasn't been as sharp in 2025, with five blown saves. Unlike some other Cardinals, he'd be a pure rental. Value: Steady late-inning reliever Analysis: A mainstay of the Rays bullpen since 2019, Fairbanks has risen from middle-inning depth to late-inning stopper to go-to closer. His strikeout rate is down slightly, but Fairbanks still has good fastball velocity and an effective slider, and he's been consistent the past two seasons. He's never allowed many home runs, and didn't allow his first one this season until July 11. Acquiring teams could see him as a closer or as a veteran setup man, and his contract includes a $7 million team option to 2026. Value: Excellent defender at the hot corner Analysis: So we're gonna go out on a limb and suggest maybe, maybe, the Rockies should sell at this deadline. Part of Colorado's current malaise owes to front office inactivity at prior deadlines, and McMahon might be its best piece to dangle this time around. By now, McMahon is who he is as a hitter, striking out too much and producing at a level just below league average. But he's an outstanding defender and the kind of complementary piece that could help a contender into October. Value: High-end fourth outfielder Analysis: Laureano is having a terrific season at the plate. What's puzzling is the way he's doing it. The past two years established him as a platoon fourth outfielder to play against lefties, but this season he's hit far better against righties (still solid against lefties, but he's crushing right-handers). He's become more of a corner outfielder but can still play center, making him a strong fourth outfielder or second-tier regular with upside (if he can maintain these numbers against righties). Value: Top defensive outfielder with some pop Analysis: This trade market could be thin on outfielders, especially right-handed-hitting outfielders. Bader could help fill that void. He remains a very strong defender, capable of playing left, right or center, and he's been a slightly above-league-average hitter with enough power to be dangerous. He also can still run a little bit. The total package is a solid outfield regular. Value: Versatile veteran arm Analysis: Martinez won't wow you with stuff — his vulcan changeup is the only pitch that's above average in that regard — but he throws six pitches with good command of each. Despite his poor strikeout rate, he's been able to limit the walk rate and keep hitters guessing enough that they don't do lots of damage when they connect. While this year hasn't gone as well as the end of last season did for Martinez, he returned from a brief stint in the bullpen by taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning in his last start of June. He has a lot of experience as a starter and as a reliever in the same season, and his versatility makes him a great pickup for a team that just needs an arm to help it get to October. Value: Emerging force in bullpen Analysis: The primary results have caught up to the peripheral ones for Detmers, who carried a 22-inning stretch without allowing an earned run for nearly two months. The lefty has above-average Stuff+ on three different deliveries as well as above-average Location+. His strikeout rate during his outstanding June was just under 40 percent. An under-the-radar candidate in June, Detmers now may be too good for the Angels to move. Value: Versatile arm seeking consistency Analysis: Soroka was an under-the-radar target for a lot of teams last winter, thanks to the outstanding second half he'd put together as a reliever for the White Sox. Moved back to the rotation in Washington, he's dealt with another injury (a biceps strain this time) and some inconsistency. Despite a pedestrian ERA, Soroka still excels at a lot of things teams really value today: He owns good strikeout, walk, and ground-ball rates, and he keeps the ball off the barrel. Plus, his experience last season makes Soroka a flexible fit: He can fill out your rotation in the short term and then slide to the bullpen later in the year. Value: Low-walk, low-strikeout starting pitcher Analysis: In a 12-year professional career, Littell has been traded twice, sold once, and claimed off waivers. He's also been a free agent two times. But if he changes teams again at the deadline, it will finally be a transaction you actually notice. That's because Littell has emerged from obscurity to become yet another productive Rays starter. He's given up a lot of home runs this year, and doesn't strike out many batters, but doesn't walk many either, and he's consistently minimized damage through two-plus seasons in the Rays rotation. The Rays are very much in the playoff hunt, but they also have some Triple-A rotation depth in Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour, and ace Shane McClanahan could return from the IL sometime after the deadline. The team's roster-churning style could lead them to deal Littell before he becomes a free agent at season's end. Value: Back-end rotation stability Analysis: A once-touted prospect who quietly became a two-time All-Star in his 30s, Anderson is a dependable back-end starter for a contender in need of rotation stability. He has roughly league-average numbers (100 ERA+), but he's also tied for the second-most starts in the majors, and he's allowed more than four runs only three times. Anderson is rarely dominant but typically steady, which has value as teams worry about workload and depth down the stretch. His contract expires at the end of the year, which surely increases the motivation for the Angels — who are vaguely in contention — to consider moving him. Value: Right-handed power hitter Analysis: García is a below-average hitter for the second straight season, and at 32 it's possible his middle-of-the-order days are over. But the two-time All-Star still has big power and remains an excellent defensive outfielder with a great arm. Memories of his amazing 2023 postseason run could convince some teams to bet on there being gas left in the tank. And if García gets back on track in the second half, his new club would have him under 2026 control via arbitration. Value: Resurgent veteran starter Analysis: The curveball never left him, but Charlie Morton's fastball seemed like it was gone for good in the early goings this year. He was sent to the pen for a bit, and he pulled his fastball velocity back up to the nintey-fours and -fives again, where it stayed when he returned to the rotation. Since that day, he's sporting a 3.69 ERA with the peripherals to support it. Interested teams will also note, however, that the velocity has been dipping again in the last two starts and may have had something to do with a bad outing against the Rays. Value: Closer for hire Analysis: Top five saves since 2023, Estévez is a proven closer who's remained effective despite losing a mph off his fastball this season. His strikeouts are down, and batted ball data suggests he's been a bit lucky in run prevention, but he's done a good enough job limiting base runners to be an All-Star for the second time in his career. Estévez is signed through next season with a team option for 2027, so an acquiring team would be banking on him remaining effective at last one more season. Value: Left-handed platoon bat Analysis: Overall, Sánchez is a slightly above-average hitter, but he has one superpower: He hits right-handers especially well. The past three seasons, Sánchez's wRC+ against righties is on par with Eugenio Suárez, Julio Rodríguez and Steven Kwan. He's maintained strong splits against righties this year. Sánchez doesn't hit lefties — he's been especially bad against them this year — but he's a decent corner outfielder with a good arm, and he's plenty productive in a platoon. He also has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, meaning teams can acquire him as more than a short-term rental. Value:Injured former All-Star center fielder Analysis: Robert has struggled since being a first-time All-Star in 2023, batting in the low .200s with a sub-.650 OPS and 32 percent strikeout rate. That makes his deadline value tricky to assess in the final guaranteed season of his contract, but the White Sox should be motivated to get whatever value they can. It's getting harder to imagine any contender viewing his $20 million team options for 2026 and 2027 as valuable. His defense and speed still shine at 27, and Robert still has plenty of raw power, but his strike-zone control going from bad to worse makes him a deadline wild card. Value: Light-hitting center fielder Analysis: Thomas' middling bat and Arizona's strong outfield depth could create the right conditions for trading the former Top 100 prospect. He may always be a bottom-of-the-order hitter, but teams that view Thomas as a legit glove in center field will be just fine to fill the position with someone under team control through 2028. Value: Left-handed platoon bat Analysis: Larnach isn't much of a fielder in either corner spot and doesn't hit lefties, but his .785 OPS versus righties the past two seasons would boost plenty of lineups with a mix of power and patience. He's under team control through 2027, but the Twins might be ready to move on from the 2018 first-round pick after years of average-ish hitting. Value: Veteran mid-rotation starter Analysis: The Orioles have probably dug too far a hole and have too much long-term work to do on their pitching staff for the organization to hold expiring deals for a slim playoff chance at the deadline. With Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton all finishing their deals at the end of the season, it behooves Baltimore to get whatever prospect arms it can, preferably on the higher-upside, lower-floor spectrum of things. Unfortunately for Eflin, a brutal three-start stretch at the end of June led to an IL stint for back discomfort, which is why a starter with his track record has a ranking this low. Value: Young lefty starter with an extra year of control Analysis: The good news is that Trevor Rogers got back the tick that he lost last year on his fastball, isn't even due a million bucks over the rest of the season, and also comes with an extra year of team control. The bad news is that his current results aren't really supported by his peripherals. His strikeout minus walk rate is almost exactly average, as is his fastball velocity (even when compared solely to lefty starters). Other than the addition of a sweeper — which is usually a pitch you avoid throwing to opposite-handed hitters — his arsenal is unchanged from the one that has produced an exactly league average park-adjusted ERA over his entire career. But, hey, league average. For cheap. Value: Reliever excelling for bad team Analysis: It's too bad the rest of the roster is what it is, because Colorado's bullpen isn't half-bad. And Bird's been the best of that group, with a strikeout rate near 30 percent and a ground-ball rate just under 50 percent. His park-adjusted FIP is in line with that of Emmanuel Clase. Bird's slider against righties and curveball against lefties are each effective, rendering him platoon-neutral. He's not even in arbitration yet, so an acquiring team would control him through 2028. Value: Soft-tossing lefty starter Analysis: Patrick Corbin. Andrew Heaney. Jeffrey Springs. Take your pick if you want a lefty starter who can help you get to the postseason before turning into a matchups play or long reliever in October. There's not that much difference in terms of stuff, predictive process numbers, or projections between the three. Springs has had the best recent season of the group, but he's also lost a lot of velocity and isn't quite the same guy he was when he was so good in 2022. Value: High chase rate out of bullpen Analysis: After bouncing through four other organizations in a four-year span, Santana has unlocked something with Pittsburgh. Since being claimed by the Pirates last June, he's exchanged his sinker for a four-seamer, thrown his slider more than any other pitch, and become a top-10 reliever in the sport with an ERA in line with those of Edwin Díaz and Jason Adam. He makes up for an average strikeout rate by not handing out free passes. Most appealing might be the way he's become a menace to left-handed batters, who are hitting below .100 against him this season without an extra-base hit. Value: Batting champ in down season Analysis: We should be clear: We expect the Padres to be buyers. But we can envision a scenario in which San Diego looks to move money off its current roster to add it elsewhere, and Arraez, with his larger salary and imperfect defensive fit, makes the most sense for that kind of move. (That's why Dylan Cease and Robert Suarez aren't on this list.) Arraez is a throwback, a no-true-outcomes player who puts the ball in play in more than 90 percent of his plate appearances. A batting champion in each of the last three seasons, he's ridden those contact skills to above-average offensive production each year of his career. Until this one, so far, where he's hitting below .300 for the first time since 2021. Arraez has also slipped down the defensive spectrum to where he's a first baseman now, where the offensive bar is much higher to clear. Value: Switch-hitter with a long contract Analysis: Reynolds is three years into the largest contract in team history, so any acquiring team would have to be cool with the $76 million he's owed over the five seasons after this one. That's not necessarily a bad rate for a switch-hitter who was 20 percent better than the league average with 25 homers per year from 2022 through 2024. This year has been worse, largely because of a hideous 2-for-45 stretch in early May. Since then, his OPS is over .800. Value: Oft-injured veteran starter Analysis: An impending free agent two seasons removed from his second Tommy John surgery, Paddack shows flashes of front-line upside but hasn't posted an ERA better than league average or surpassed 110 innings since 2019. He's not part of the Twins' future plans and can fill out the back of a contender's rotation. Dropped from the previous Big Board: Alex Bregman (2), Aroldis Chapman (19), Ramón Urías (34), Chris Martin (35), Lucas Giolito (36) (Illustration of Eugenio Suárez, Joe Ryan and Zac Gallen: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Images: Christian Petersen, Matt Krohnx / Getty Images, Houston Astros)
New York Times
17-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
What we got wrong: Looking back at our MLB trade grades from the 2024 deadline
By Tim Britton, Andy McCullough and Stephen J. Nesbitt We live in an era of instant feedback. When a trade happens, readers want to know what it means. Is this player going to make a difference for a contender? Is this prospect going to be worth tracking for years to come? Here at The Athletic, we have you covered. Last summer, we offered grades on more than 40 deadline deals, and we'll be back to do it again before this year's deadline. Advertisement We try our best to analyze these moves. But we don't always get them right. As any executive will tell you, it often takes years to get an accurate grade on any deal. Take the Chicago Cubs acquiring infielder Isaac Paredes last season. He did not play particularly well during his time in the Windy City, but he did help the club acquire outfielder Kyle Tucker during the winter. We couldn't have known that last July. Time tends to add more perspective. With that in mind, three of our graders from last summer's feverish deadline looked back at trades we got wrong and tried to explain why. Tampa Bay Rays get: RHP Dylan Lesko, OF Homer Bush Jr., C J.D. Gonzalez. San Diego Padres get: RHP Jason Adam Original grades: Padres: B Rays: A Andy McCullough: More than a decade ago, the writer Sam Miller — now a co-host of The Athletic's hit podcast The Roundtable — crystallized an era of transactional analysis with this gem: LOVE this trade for the Rays. Who'd they give up? And who'd they get? — Sam Miller (@SamMillerBB) January 22, 2014 We may have fallen into this trap when analyzing last year's deal that sent reliever Jason Adam to San Diego. All three of our writers felt the Padres did well in acquiring Adam, who has been excellent and is still under team control next season. But we LOVED this trade for the Rays. Whoops. Tampa Bay received three players for Adam: pitcher Dylan Lesko, outfielder Homer Bush Jr. and catcher J.D. Gonzalez. Lesko headlined the group. He had torn his ulnar collateral ligament in his senior year in high school, but San Diego still chose him with the 15th pick in the 2022 draft. Upon his return, he did not pitch well. In 16 outings for Class-A Fort Wayne last season, Lesko posted a 6.46 ERA and walked 6.7 batters per nine innings. Even so, to receive a recent first-round pick in exchange for a reliever felt like a coup for the Rays, an organization that excels at manufacturing relievers. Advertisement Well, it looks like Lesko's struggles last year were a harbinger rather than a blip. He appeared in four games for Class-A Bowling Green in April before being shut down for several months. Working as a reliever, he had lost the ability to find the plate. In his final outing for the Hot Rods, he faced eight batters, walked four and permitted three hits. He threw 30 pitches. Nine were strikes. That was on April 19. He did not appear in a game again until Tuesday, when he threw a scoreless inning for Tampa Bay's Florida Complex League affiliate. Lesko had worked with Rays officials in the intervening months to fix his delivery. In retrospect, I was too enamored with Lesko's past prospect status rather than his struggles in the present. Yes, he was once considered by some to be the best amateur arm in 2022. But after two years in the San Diego organization, he wasn't performing and the club was willing to move him. The Philadelphia Phillies, as a counter-example, kept 2021 first-round Andrew Painter off the table in trade discussions last summer, even as Painter recovered from elbow reconstruction. Lesko is still only 21. The Rays do not need to rush him. They took the time necessary to repair his delivery. They will see if Lesko can recapture the promise he displayed before he hurt his elbow in high school. But it hasn't been going well. It's a good reminder that the overwhelming majority of prospects flame out. As for the other players in the trade: Bush, 23, has been getting on base at a decent rate for Double-A Montgomery, but has not displayed much power. Gonzalez, 19, looked overmatched at the plate for Class-A Charleston before getting hurt. If I had to do it over again, I would not give the Rays a failing grade for this trade. This is the way of the world when it comes to acquiring young talent. But suggesting Tampa Bay aced the exam, as we did last summer, now looks silly. Revised grades: Padres: B Rays: A Los Angeles Dodgers get: UTIL Amed Rosario Tampa Bay Rays get: RHP Michael Flynn Original grades: Dodgers: B Rays: C Tim Britton: Did I spend the final two months of last regular season regretting that I wasn't even harsher than a C on the Guardians for deciding Lane Thomas was enough of an offensive upgrade in the outfield? Did I flip-flop entirely when Thomas hit his grand slam off Tarik Skubal to help send Cleveland to the ALCS, wondering if one swing alone turned that trade into an A+? Have I periodically checked Thomas' ugly numbers this season to further confuse myself? Will I ultimately settle back on C being the right grade? In the words of Molly Bloom, yes I said yes I will yes. Advertisement So I have to look elsewhere. And here's a little lesson on historical revisionism: When you want to tell people you were wrong but maintain that you still know better than them, you decide that the trade you were too positive on was one made by the team that won the World Series anyway. But seriously, I cannot in good conscience sit here and stand by the B I gave the Dodgers for acquiring Amed Rosario when the Dodgers themselves got rid of Rosario after all of 12 plate appearances. I understand, in principle, what Los Angeles was doing. It acquired a familiar player in Rosario to bridge the gap until some of its infielders, specifically Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and Tommy Edman, returned to the lineup. But Rosario received just those 12 at-bats over a two-week stretch. He started only three games, stuck behind Kiké Hernández and Nick Ahmed on the depth chart. There are very few concrete rules in trade analysis. We embrace nuance and context and the understanding that trade evaluations evolve. But here's one hard-and-fast rule I live by: If you cut the guy you traded for after 12 plate appearances, you get a D. Revised grades: Dodgers: D Rays: C Orioles get: LHP Trevor Rogers Marlins get: OF Kyle Stowers and IF Connor Norby Original grades: Marlins: A Orioles: C Stephen J. Nesbitt: While I came to regret dunking on Ryne Stanek to the Mets when he was pitching important innings last postseason, the trade grade I now see I missed on was for the trade that sent Stowers and Norby to Miami for Rogers. In the immediate aftermath, I loved the deal for the Marlins (A) but didn't dig it for the Orioles (C). We were all out on the O's half of the trade. Brittany Ghiroli handed out a C+. Sam Blum gave them a D. Rogers, a former All-Star and Rookie of the Year runner-up, had a 5.09 ERA from 2022-24. Why was this the guy who'd finally persuaded Baltimore to part with a couple prized position player prospects? Well, after pitching poorly for the Orioles late last season, Rogers is back to missing barrels and punching tickets and going deep into games. Advertisement He has rebounded from an offseason knee injury to turn in a 1.53 ERA through six starts. He's under club control through next season, and, as we often repeat, controllable starting pitching is an incredibly costly asset. For that reason, I graded the O's too harshly for this trade. They deserved something more like a B. And the Marlins deserved an A+++. Oh baby! After seeing little more than a cup of coffee with the Orioles in 2022, 2023 and 2024, Stowers has broken out with an All-Star first half with the Marlins, batting .293 and slugging 19 home runs. The Fish, looking to trade from their stash of starting pitching to improve the lineup, turned two-plus years of Rogers into two major-league-ready hitters who were blocked in Baltimore. Even if Stowers' swing-and-miss issues increase and Norby amounts to nothing more than a fringe big leaguer, it's a coup in return for a pitcher the Marlins were eager to move. Revised grades: Marlins: A+++ Orioles: B (Top photo of Stowers: Mitchell Layton / Getty Images)
Yahoo
09-07-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Baltimore Orioles Still Behind in MLB Power Rankings
Baltimore Orioles Still Behind in MLB Power Rankings originally appeared on Athlon Sports. While the Baltimore Orioles are still playing catch-up from their awful start this MLB season, the team has shown signs of improvement recently. Advertisement Don't expect to see the same team taking the field, though, later this season. Baltimore looks like it's going to be sellers at the MLB Trade Deadline later this month. The Orioles remain stuck in No. 24 in the most recent MLB Power Rankings, according to The Athletic. It will take a Herculean effort over the final weeks this season to even get Baltimore in any type of postseason play discussion. "Thanks to a weekend sweep of Atlanta, the O's are 21-13 since their low point in late May, and they're playing the kind of baseball that was expected of them at the start of the season," Tim Britton of The Athletic wrote. Ryan O'Hearn continues to set offensive pace for Orioles "An optimist can squint and chart a path from 13th in the AL to October, past the mediocre middle of the AL Central and the .500 laggards in the AL West, by Boston in the division to where they only need the (Seattle) Mariners, (Toronto) Blue Jays or (Tampa Bay) Rays to falter to give them a legit chance," Britton wrote. "A pessimist notes that yeah, that sounds like it has a 4.1 percent chance of happening, and that's why Baltimore is still poised to sell impending free agents like Cedric Mullins and Ryan O'Hearn at this month's trade deadline." In 76 games this season, O'Hearn is hitting .287 with 11 home runs, 30 RBI, 74 hits and 36 runs scored, according to StatMuse. Mullins is hitting a paltry .213 with 13 homers and 41 RBI in 73 games for Baltimore. Advertisement Starting pitcher Charlie Morton has shown signs of coming around for the Orioles. But Baltimore needs a lot more help than simply getting mound production from Morton himself. The 10-day injured list hasn't been good for the Orioles with four catchers among those on it. Look for Baltimore to be active sellers when trades start picking up. The O's probably are looking ahead to next season already. This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 8, 2025, where it first appeared.
New York Times
08-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
MLB Power Rankings: Blue Jays, Red Sox climbing; Playoff odds then and now
By Tim Britton, Johnny Flores Jr. and Andy McCullough Every week, we ask a selected group of our baseball writers — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results. If there's one thing that baseball is great at reminding us, it's that no matter how well-researched and data-backed projections are, they're just that … projections. Through the first 90 or so games of this year's campaign, we've seen the Braves go from 93.4 percent playoff odds to 6.3 percent, and that actually might be pretty generous considering the state of the team. Advertisement The hosts of the 2025 All-Star Game aren't the only ones who've been confronted with the cruel reality that is baseball. Of course, one team's misery is another team's benefit, and that's been the case for the Brewers, who've seen their odds of playing in October nearly double since the spring. If it wasn't already clear, for this week, we're looking back at each team's preseason playoff odds (according to FanGraphs) compared to their current odds entering play on July 7. Record: 56-36 Last Power Ranking: 1 Preseason playoff odds: 98.0 percent Current playoff odds: 99.7 percent It turns out that winning 120 games in a regular season isn't easy to do. Who knew? Despite a comfortable lead in the National League West, the Dodgers are dealing with a variety of issues. Mookie Betts is scuffling. The Astros just came to Chavez Ravine and trounced them. And the injuries. My goodness, the injuries. Blake Snell has pitched just twice. Blake Treinen hasn't pitched since April 13. Tyler Glasnow has been out since April 27. Roki Sasaki was a mess before he went down with a shoulder injury. Even the celebration of Clayton Kershaw's 3,000th strikeout was marred by Max Muncy's knee sprain. So the Dodgers will spend the second half in a familiar position, wondering which of their injured crew will be available for October. — Andy McCullough Record: 58-34 Last Power Ranking: 2 Preseason playoff odds: 46 percent Current playoff odds: 99.6 percent Coming off a late October push in 2024, the Tigers figured to at least be competitive relative to the AL Central. Instead, they near the second half with the best record in baseball. Sure, it helps to have a bona fide ace in Tarik Skubal pitching every fifth day, but the Tigers have seen massive contributions from up and down the roster all season. Take Sunday's 7-2 victory over the Guardians, which saw Trey Sweeney, who had been optioned just a week prior and had never homered against a fastball in 356 plate appearances, do just that … homer against a fastball to help open the offensive floodgates against a division rival. Throw in Javier Baéz's Comeback Player of the Year campaign and Casey Mize's breakout season, among other developments, and you have the makings of baseball's most dangerous team. — Johnny Flores Jr. Advertisement Record: 53-38 Last Power Ranking: 4 Preseason playoff odds: 72.4 percent Current playoff odds: 95.8 percent Some days, the Phillies look like a collection of concerns. The bullpen is still unsettled, the outfield is a bit of a mess, and the lineup just isn't as potent as you'd think given the names within it. Other days, usually when Zack Wheeler takes the mound, none of that matters, and Philadelphia looks unbeatable. Wheeler is on an extended heater since the start of June, and he's yielded all of two earned runs in 34 innings over his last five starts (with 47 strikeouts). He's given up 11 earned runs in two starts against Atlanta this season — and 17 earned runs the other 16 times he's taken the ball. — Tim Britton Record: 54-36 Last Power Ranking: 6 Preseason playoff odds: 48.3 percent Current playoff odds: 94.8 percent Call it the PCA effect or the brilliance of Kyle Tucker, but the fact of the matter remains the same — the Cubs have nearly doubled their playoff odds and could even challenge for the best record in the National League. That they've been able to do this without Justin Steele and only 10 starts of Shota Imanaga is all the more noteworthy. The offense, which has the third-best OPS in baseball, has done a lot of the heavy lifting, but the emergence of Matthew Boyd (2.52 ERA in 18 starts), plus a bullpen that ranks fourth in all of baseball by ERA (3.26) has also gone a long way in solidifying the Cubs as one of baseball's best teams. — Flores Record: 55-36 Last Power Ranking: 5 Preseason playoff odds: 52.3 percent Current playoff odds: 98.1 percent Well, well, well. Look who is back. These Astros bear a passing resemblance to the club that has ruled the American League for nearly a decade. The uniforms are still the same. The bullpen is still electric. Jose Altuve is still around, although he plays left field now. Yes, the Astros have adapted well after an offseason of upheaval. The Kyle Tucker deal netted Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith, who have added energy and enthusiasm to the lineup. The group has opened up a sizable lead in the American League West. And over the weekend, Houston demonstrated its effectiveness against an old rival. In a matchup that could be a World Series preview, the Astros swept the Dodgers, outscoring their hosts, 29-6. Houston looks dangerous, especially when Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña get healthy. — McCullough Record: 52-39 Last Power Ranking: 7 Preseason playoff odds: 62.4 percent Current playoff odds: 86.6 percent The Mets' odds dipped, though never cratered, during their recent 3-14 stretch. They've snapped out of it with four wins in the last five, and it appears they've survived the shakiest stretch for their pitching staff. Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea could both be back this weekend, limiting how often New York requires an opener or spot starts — both employed in the series win over the Yankees over the weekend. The lineup has helped pick up the slack, with Juan Soto turning himself into a genuine All-Star snub since the start of June and Brandon Nimmo, who hit two grand slams last week, now on pace for more than 30 homers. — Britton Record: 49-41 Last Power Ranking: 3 Preseason playoff odds: 63.9 percent Current playoff odds: 85.6 percent While the Yankees' playoff odds remain sturdy, their odds of winning the division have dropped considerably of late, from a peak above 90 percent in late May to just over 36 percent entering Monday. New York is just 7-16 since mid-June, and a lot of that damage has been done in the division. The Yankees lost five of six to Boston and were swept in four in Toronto. Overall, since the start of May, they're just 4-12 in the AL East, with half those wins coming against last-place Baltimore. — Britton Advertisement Record: 53-38 Last Power Ranking: 13 Preseason playoff odds: 43.6 percent Current playoff odds: 87.7 percent The Jays' four-game sweep of the Yankees, part of an eight-game winning streak they carried into Monday, vaulted them into first in the AL East. Toronto started the season 26-28 and has gone 26-10 since heading into this week's series on the South Side of Chicago. The interesting thing about the Blue Jays' improvement is, as Mitch Bannon pointed out, it's coming from many of the same guys who were part of a disappointing 2024. Alejandro Kirk is an All-Star again, George Springer is raking, and Bo Bichette is closer to his old form than whatever he was last year. — Britton Record: 49-42 Last Power Ranking: 8 Preseason playoff odds: 37.7 percent Current playoff odds: 68.8 percent This is a big week for Tampa Bay, which has hit a snag with three straight series losses to teams under .500 in the Orioles, Athletics and Twins. That's why it was Toronto who leapfrogged the Yankees into first, rather than these Rays. The schedule gets tougher now, with trips this week to Detroit (for three) and Boston (for four). The good news is Tampa Bay just welcomed Ha-Seong Kim back, which should provide some stability in the middle infield and allow some other versatile pieces to move around. — Britton Record: 51-40 Last Power Ranking: T-11 Preseason playoff odds: 35.4 percent Current playoff odds: 60.9 percent At 50-40 entering Monday, the Brewers are firmly in possession of the National League's second Wild Card spot, largely thanks to a 16-9 run in June, marks only bested by the Astros and Blue Jays. While the offense continues to be middle-of-the-pack, the pitching is, in typical Milwaukee fashion, as stout as ever. Freddy Peralta, who earned his second career All-Star nomination on Sunday, boasts a 2.91 ERA, while Quinn Priester, who was acquired in a throwaway trade with the Red Sox, put up a 1.98 ERA over five games (four starts). Meanwhile, the bullpen just saw the return of DL Hall and Aaron Ashby. — Flores Record: 48-42 Last Power Ranking: 10 Preseason playoff odds: 32.9 percent Current playoff odds: 44.7 percent San Diego went 13-15 in June, which allowed the Dodgers to pull well ahead in the National League West. The team still has a good chance to capture a Wild Card spot and punch another ticket to October. Yu Darvish returned to action on Monday, which should help a starting rotation that has sorely missed him and also Michael King, who has been out since late May with a shoulder injury. With the trade deadline approaching, the Padres have continued to monitor the availability of Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran. A deal like that sounds unfathomable until you remember A.J. Preller is involved. We'll see what happens. — McCullough Record: 50-42 Last Power Ranking: 9 Preseason playoff odds: 26.2 percent Current playoff odds: 46.6 percent Rafael Devers has gotten off to a slow start as a Giant, but have no fear: He's under contract for another eight seasons after this one. Like San Diego, San Francisco cooled off in May and June, with the Dodgers surging ahead in the division. The Giants will be jockeying with the Padres, Brewers, Cardinals, Reds and possibly the Diamondbacks for Wild Card positioning. It is an excellent outcome for a club that looked more likely to finish in fourth place when the season began. Another excellent three-man race will be the chase for the National League Cy Young award, as Logan Webb tries to outclass Philadelphia ace Zack Wheeler and Pittsburgh wunderkind Paul Skenes. All in all, it's been a fun summer so far in San Francisco, which is an upgrade over previous years. — McCullough Record: 48-42 Last Power Ranking: 15 Preseason playoff odds: 60.4 percent Current playoff odds: 73.3 percent The Mariners took care of business this past weekend by sweeping the lowly Pirates. After playing sub-.500 baseball in May and June, the sweep was important for Seattle as it embarks on what could be a taxing road trip to face the Yankees and the Tigers. George Kirby logged 6 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball against Pittsburgh on Sunday, continuing a recent stretch of solid pitching as he gets more comfortable coming back from shoulder inflammation. Cal Raleigh swatted two homers on Friday night to extend his lead over Yankees slugger Aaron Judge. The Mariners are in good position in the Wild Card race. — McCullough Record: 47-45 Last Power Ranking: 19 Preseason playoff odds: 55.0 percent Current playoff odds: 25.7 percent The Red Sox have rebounded from their six-game losing streak last month, cruising to a weekend sweep over woeful Washington to get back over. 500 entering a home series with cataclysmic Colorado. We get it: trading your franchise cornerstone in large part because of a failure of organizational communication has a way of sucking the oxygen out of a team. But have you noticed what Ceddanne Rafaela has done? Since May 27, he's hit nine homers with an OPS over .950. The only players with more wins above replacement since then? Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh (which, of course, because they're 1-2 for basically any time period this season). Alex Bregman could be back this week. Those playoff odds feel low. — Britton Advertisement Record: 48-43 Last Power Ranking: T-11 Preseason playoff odds: 23.4 percent Current playoff odds: 32.3 percent Even after getting routed 11-0 by the Cubs on Sunday, two days after giving up a franchise-record eight homers on the 4th of July, also to the Cubs, the Cardinals remain in the thick of the NL Wild Card race, sitting just one game back of the third and final spot. How the rest of July plays out will dictate what St. Louis and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak do at the trade deadline. If the team continues to spiral, selling seems inevitable, while a dominant July could mean adding reinforcements. Which is to say, set a reminder for 6 p.m. EST on July 31 to see where those odds finally land. — Flores Record: 45-46 Last Power Ranking: 17 Preseason playoff odds: 60.4 percent Current playoff odds: 18.8 percent The offense is one of the best in baseball. The pitching staff has been one of the worst. And so the Diamondbacks are approaching the deadline still unsure how to act. Should the club trade pending free agents like starter Zac Gallen and third baseman Eugenio Suárez? Or should the group hold tight and push for October? The front office would certainly prefer the latter. Arizona entered 2025 expecting to contend. But a major investment in free-agent starter Corbin Burnes has already curdled, and general manager Mike Hazen could recoup a good bit of talent in a seller's market this month. It's a real dilemma. — McCullough Record: 44-47 Last Power Ranking: 18 Preseason playoff odds: 51.5 percent Current playoff odds: 18.1 percent Both participants in the 2023 World Series have been confounded by their performances in 2025. The Rangers are the mirror image of the Diamondbacks: Texas' pitching has been excellent, but their offense has been horrid. The Rangers entered Monday's games with the best ERA in baseball, a mark supported by the combined excellence of starters Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle. But Mahle is hurt, and the lineup just cannot find a rhythm. Texas hoped to contend for the American League West this season. They'll be lucky if they can sneak into a Wild Card spot now. — McCullough Record: 46-45 Last Power Ranking: 14 Preseason playoff odds: 20.2 percent Current playoff odds: 12.8 percent At 46-44, a Wild Card berth is still in play for Cincinnati, and those odds could look even sharper if the rival Cardinals spiral out and become sellers at the deadline. With Hunter Greene potentially set to begin a rehab assignment soon, the Reds could soon see All-Star snub Andrew Abbott and Greene serving as a 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. A turnaround in health and fortune could also go a long way for Terry Francona's ballclub. — Flores Record: 43-47 Last Power Ranking: 20 Preseason playoff odds: 55.5 percent Current playoff odds: 19.9 percent Right now, the margin for error in Minnesota is razor-thin. Sitting 14 games back of the Tigers in the AL Central, the division is essentially out of reach, barring a collapse of epic proportions. Which means the Twins will need to secure one of the AL's three Wild Card spots, a proposition that is easier said than done, considering the competitiveness of the AL East and back-and-forth battle in the West. Still, the fact that the club was able to take two of three against the Rays should provide enough confidence that a Wild Card berth is possible. To get there, they'll need Carlos Correa and his 'clutch' pedigree to show up. Time is starting to run out, though. — Flores Record: 39-50 Last Power Ranking: 16 Preseason playoff odds: 93.4 percent Current playoff odds: 6.3 percent Can we finally, conclusively, permanently bury the 2025 Braves? They've lost nine of 11, they've fallen behind the Marlins in the NL East, and they've lost Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach for extended time. What hope is there? Look, while we've got shovels in our hands, it is worth pointing out that although 6.3 percent is low, it is not nothing. The 2021 Cardinals were at 1.3 percent in August and 2.8 percent in September; they made the playoffs. The 2015 Rangers were at 3.0 percent in late July; they won the division. And most notably, in 2021, Atlanta was only at 7.0 percent to make the postseason in the final week of July; it won the World Series. —Britton Advertisement Record: 44-48 Last Power Ranking: 22 Preseason playoff odds: 42.5 percent Current playoff odds: 9.8 percent Much like the Twins, the margin for error in Kansas City is non-existent. At 5 games back of the AL's third and final Wild Card spot, the Royals will need to start stacking up wins and fast. Going 4-3 against the Diamondbacks and Mariners over the last week is a step in that direction, but the team will need to take advantage of six games against the Pirates and Marlins, plus another six at home against the Guardians and Braves, to push those playoff odds closer to reality. — Flores Record: 41-48 Last Power Ranking: 21 Preseason playoff odds: 24.9 percent Current playoff odds: 5.8 percent Entering the 2025 season, the offensively starved Guardians were always going to face an uphill battle in what figured to be a competitive AL Central, particularly after trading away Josh Naylor in favor of signing 39-year-old Carlos Santana. That said, the Guardians are currently marred in their worst offensive season by OPS since 1972. Take away All-Stars José Ramírez and Steven Kwan, and the rest of the lineup is producing a .610 OPS. Having just escaped a 10-game losing streak, the Guardians would need a turnaround of epic proportions to join the October conversation. — Flores Record: 44-46 Last Power Ranking: 23 Preseason playoff odds: 9.5 percent Current playoff odds: 3.6 percent It's funny, but even though the team's odds look worse now than they did in March, the Angels have experienced small pockets of success this year. The latest involves outfielder Jo Adell, a former top prospect who has spent half a decade unable to find his footing in the majors. During a 32-game stretch since June 1, Adell posted a 1.014 OPS with 12 homers and 28 RBIs. More encouraging, he produced a .379 on-base percentage during that period. It's a small sample size for a player who has thrilled fans in small sample sizes before. But what else do Angels fans have to hang onto these days? You have to take hope where you can find it. — McCullough Record: 40-49 Last Power Ranking: 24 Preseason playoff odds: 45.0 percent Current playoff odds: 4.1 percent Thanks to a weekend sweep of Atlanta, the O's are 21-13 since their low point in late May, and they're playing the kind of baseball that was expected of them at the start of the season. An optimist can squint and chart a path from 13th in the AL to October, past the mediocre middle of the AL Central and the .500 laggards in the AL West, by Boston in the division to where they only need the Mariners, Blue Jays or Rays to falter to give them a legit chance. A pessimist notes that yeah, that sounds like it has a 4.1 percent chance of happening, and that's why Baltimore is still poised to sell impending free agents like Cedric Mullins and Ryan O'Hearn at this month's trade deadline. — Britton Record: 41-48 Last Power Ranking: 26 Preseason playoff odds: 1.3 percent Current playoff odds: 0.3 percent No, the Marlins are not going to make the playoffs in 2025. However, Miami has been a lot better than most anyone — including those staring back in the mirror — expected them to be at the start of the season. Since reaching a low point of 16 games below .500 in mid-June, the Marlins are 15-7. They came into Monday night's game in Cincinnati riding a nine-game road winning streak, which included sweeps of good teams in the Giants and Diamondbacks. The rebuild Peter Bendix launched after a postseason appearance in 2023 may have looked aimless to outsiders — again, looking in the mirror here — but it's on surer footing than the more conventional one stagnating in Washington. — Britton Record: 38-54 Last Power Ranking: 25 Preseason playoff odds: 20.3 percent Current playoff odds: 0.1 percent After a 1-0 loss to the Mariners on Sunday, a game in which Paul Skenes struck out a season-high 10 batters, the 2025 Pirates became the first team in MLB history to win three straight shutouts and then lose three straight, also by shutout. Entering Monday, the team hadn't scored in 28 straight innings, and the offense as a whole ranks at or near the bottom in nearly every major category. Given Skenes' continued brilliance, it's easy to see why there was even the faintest projection of an October appearance. Given the offense's continued struggles, it's also easy to see why those odds vanished. — Flores Record: 37-55 Last Power Ranking: 28 Preseason playoff odds: 12.1 percent Current playoff odds: 0.1 percent A collapse in mid-May shifted the narrative around this season from 'spunky upstarts with intriguing position-player core' to 'intriguing group handcuffed by poor infrastructure.' Yes, the Athletics are struggling at Sutter Health Park. The team entered Monday with a 16-29 record at home. Only the Rockies play worse in their own park, and they might be the worst baseball team of all time. Unlike the Rays, who could return to Tropicana Field next season, the Athletics will have to play at least two more seasons in Sacramento. The opening act has not been pretty. — McCullough Advertisement Record: 37-53 Last Power Ranking: 27 Preseason playoff odds: 2.9 percent Current playoff odds: 0.1 percent Imagine making one of the great prospect trades in baseball history and getting fired the day two of those lottery tickets formally make the All-Star team. Mike Rizzo and Dave Martinez are out, and Washington's rebuild is on the cusp of requiring deeper excavation. What exactly is the plan and the timeline here now? The Nationals have done nothing around the core of James Wood, C.J. Abrams and MacKenzie Gore — literally, the rest of the roster is barely above replacement level — and now might be starting over again. — Britton Record: 30-61 Last Power Ranking: 29 Preseason playoff odds: 0.1 percent Current playoff odds: 0.0 percent Yeah, but at least we're not the Rockies. — Some White Sox fan somewhere — Flores Record: 21-70 Last Power Ranking: 30 Preseason playoff odds: 0.1 percent Current playoff odds: 0.0 percent There's always next year. — McCullough
