Latest news with #TimQuinlan
Yahoo
17-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The Tariff Wave Hits Main Street
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) just admitted that tariff pain is finally showing up in our grocery bills and online carts. After some rosy early estimates, it turns out real personal spending barely budged in Q1 and people actually cut back on non?essentials by almost one percent. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 6 Warning Sign with WFC. Shoppers had stocked up ahead of the levies, so the worst of the price hikes was hidden for a while. Now that those shelves are running low, the higher costs on appliances, cars and other big?ticket items are hitting home. Even eating out isn't booming like beforerestaurants saw only a tiny bump in trafficwhile splurges like air travel and ride?sharing are taking a real hit. Folks are clearly tightening their belts. According to Wells Fargo's Tim Quinlan, the real shock is coming once all those pre?tariff inventories are gone. Until then, we got lucky. Going forward, though, every tag at the checkout could feel a lot heavier. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Boston Globe
17-06-2025
- Business
- Boston Globe
Americans pull back from restaurants by most since 2023
'It would be difficult to identify a better example of discretionary spending than going out to eat, but perhaps because it is an affordable luxury it had been holding up,' Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein said in a note. 'After posting the largest overall increase in last month's report, May saw some slowing in sales activity.' Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up President Donald Trump's tariffs haven't yet led to higher US inflation, but they've prompted many Americans to rethink their spending. Some restaurants, particularly those that attract lower-income diners such as McDonald's Corp., have warned that consumer sentiment is shaky. Household finances have also worsened because of high interest rates and a persistent rise in the cost of living. Advertisement Consumers regained some of their faith in the economy in May given modest inflation relief, but sentiment remains 'fragile,' according to Abigail Gilmartin, a retail analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. Red Lobster Chief Executive Officer Damola Adamolekun highlighted the concerns in an interview Monday, before the retail sales figures were released. Advertisement 'If sentiment drops, will it affect the restaurant business? Absolutely,' he said. There's some optimism that potential tax cuts, which are part of a bill winding its way through Congress, could lift restaurant sales in the second half, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Yahoo
29-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Falling Consumer Confidence Has Tripped This Recession Alarm
Consumer confidence fell for the fifth month as tariffs continue to stoke economic concerns. The drop comes from a sharp decline in consumer expectations, which fell to their lowest levels since 2011 and dropped well below the threshold that indicates a recession. The survey showed consumer worries over inflation now spread to their expectations of business conditions, employment opportunities, and income been more than a decade since consumers have predicted an economic future this bleak, and it's ringing a recession alarm bell. Tuesday's consumer confidence survey showed expectations over near-term business conditions, employment prospects, and future income declined sharply in April. Consumer confidence dropped for the fifth month to pandemic-era lows amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariff policies. The Expectations Index dropped 12.5 points in April to 54.4. That's the lowest reading in the Conference Board survey since October 2011 and well below the threshold of 80, which historically has indicated a recession is on the horizon. 'Consumers are growing more and more anxious about their financial situation,' wrote Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan, Shannon Grein and Jeremiah Kohl. 'Talk around tariffs has spooked consumers into believing inflation will be higher in the future, and it's depressed their expectations around the economy generally.' The survey results are just the latest to show increasing consumer pessimism over U.S. tariff policy. Recent declines in similar consumer sentiment surveys have been tied to worries over increased inflation. However, Tuesday's report showed that tariff jitters are spilling over to the labor market. Only 31.7% of respondents said jobs were plentiful, down from 33.6% in the month prior. 'The markedly deteriorating readings in the labor market are most concerning since these indicators have a good relationship with current and future employment trends,' said Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic. The report also showed that consumers' expectations for their future income turned negative for the first time in five years. 'Concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations,' said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board. Read the original article on Investopedia
The National
28-02-2025
- Business
- The National
Key US inflation metric slows as Fed signals hold on interest rate cuts
The US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric slowed last month, as officials suggest they are content to keep interest rates steady amid policy uncertainty. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3 per cent in January, data from the Commerce Department showed on Friday. Prices rose 2.5 per cent on an annual basis, slightly lower than the 2.6 per cent rate the previous month. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3 per cent on a monthly basis and 2.6 per cent year-on-year, down from 2.8 per cent in December. All figures were in line with the FactSet consensus estimate. Fed officials prefer to monitor PCE inflation as opposed to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it reflects changes in consumer spending, which CPI inflation does not. The stock market is on track for its biggest monthly decline since April 2024. Market jitters have largely been triggered by tariff concerns, as US President Donald Trump this week confirmed levies on Canada and Mexico will begin on Tuesday. He also said Chinese goods will face an additional 10 per cent tariff that same day. 'Tariffs are the most obvious threat to the pricing environment and the last few tenths to the Fed's 2 per cent target remain in the crosshair,' Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein wrote to clients. Meanwhile, an 8.5 per cent drop in Nvidia shares on Thursday following its earnings report also dragged down Wall Street's major indices. Friday's report was not expected to have a major impact on the Fed's next interest rate decision, slated for March 19. 'I believe that monetary policy has the luxury of being patient as we assess the path forward, and this will likely mean holding the federal funds rate steady for some time,' Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, a voting member on the Fed's rate-setting committee this year, said on Thursday. Ms Hammack and other Fed officials have argued that they are in a good position to keep rates steady while inflation remains above their 2 per cent target. The Fed left rates unchanged at roughly 4.33 per cent when it met last month. The latest inflation report also follows a stronger-than-expected CPI reading for March, with headline inflation above estimates at 3 per cent annually. 'Now is not the time to let down our guard,' Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, another voting member this year, said on Thursday. Further complicating the outlook are Mr Trump's policies. Economists have generally argued that his plans to implement tariffs, deport immigrants and offer a lighter regulatory touch for businesses could rekindle inflation. He also requested the Commerce Department earlier this week to investigate if copper imports pose a threat to US national security. That move follows his plans to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all steel and aluminium imports. Minutes from the Fed's January meeting showed that officials were concerned such policies carry risks to the upside (higher inflation) and the downside (a weaker labour market). 'A couple of participants remarked that, in the period ahead, it might be especially difficult to distinguish between relatively persistent changes in inflation and more temporary changes that might be associated with the introduction of new government policies,' the minutes read. Traders will get a clearer picture on the Fed's thinking with a slate of officials due to speak next week, including New York Fed Chair John Williams on Monday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell on March 7.
The National
28-02-2025
- Business
- The National
Key inflation metric slows as Fed signals hold on interest rate cuts
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric slowed last month, as officials suggest they are content to keep interest rates steady amid policy uncertainty. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3 per cent in January, data from the Commerce Department showed on Friday. Prices rose 2.5 per cent on an annual basis, slightly lower than the 2.6 per cent rate last month. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3 per cent on a monthly basis and 2.6 per cent year-on-year, down from 2.8 per cent in December. All figures were in line with the Factset consensus estimate. Fed officials prefer to monitor PCE inflation as opposed to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it reflects changes in consumer spending, which CPI inflation does not. The stock market is on track for its biggest monthly decline since April 2024. Market jitters have largely been triggered by tariff concerns, as US President Donald Trump this week confirmed levies on Canada and Mexico will begin on Monday. He also said Chinese goods will face an additional 10 per cent tariff that same day. 'Tariffs are the most obvious threat to the pricing environment and the last few tenths to the Fed's 2 per cent target remain in the crosshair,' Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein wrote to clients. Meanwhile, an 8.5 per cent drop in Nvidia shares on Thursday following its earnings report also dragged down Wall Street's major indices. Friday's report was not expected to have a major impact on the Fed's next interest rate decision, slated for March 19. 'I believe that monetary policy has the luxury of being patient as we assess the path forward, and this will likely mean holding the federal funds rate steady for some time,' Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, a voting member on the Fed's rate-setting committee this year, said on Thursday. Ms Hammack and other Fed officials have argued that they are in a good position to keep rates steady while inflation remains above their 2 per cent target. The Fed left rates unchanged at roughly 4.33 per cent when it met last month. The latest inflation report also follows a stronger-than-expected CPI reading for March, with headline inflation above estimates at 3 per cent annually. 'Now is not the time to let down our guard,' Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, another voting member this year, said on Thursday. Further complicating the outlook are Mr Trump's policies. Economists have generally argued that his plans to implement tariffs, deport immigrants and offer a lighter regulatory touch for businesses could rekindle inflation. He also requested the Commerce Department earlier this week to investigate if copper imports pose a threat to US national security. That move follows his plans to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all steel and aluminium imports. Minutes from the Fed's January meeting showed that officials were concerned such policies carry risks to the upside (higher inflation) and the downside (a weaker labour market). 'A couple of participants remarked that, in the period ahead, it might be especially difficult to distinguish between relatively persistent changes in inflation and more temporary changes that might be associated with the introduction of new government policies,' the minutes read. Traders will get a clearer picture on the Fed's thinking with a slate of officials due to speak next week, including New York Fed Chair John Williams on Monday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell on March 7.
