Latest news with #TnoteYields
Yahoo
22-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Weakens and Gold Rallies as T-note Yields Slide
The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.12%. The dollar is under pressure today from lower T-note yields. Losses in the dollar accelerated after the US July Richmond Fed manufacturing survey current conditions index unexpectedly fell to an 11-month low. Losses in the dollar are limited by comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent, who said 'he sees no reason for Fed Chair Powell to step down right now.' The dollar has been under pressure due to concerns President Trump would try to fire Powell, which could prompt foreign investors to shun dollar assets over questions of the Fed's independence. More News from Barchart Dollar Falls as Stocks Rally and T-note Yields Decline Dollar Slips Due to Strength in Stocks and Lower T-note Yields Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! The US July Richmond Fed manufacturing survey current conditions index unexpectedly fell -12 to an 11-month low of -20, weaker than expectations of an increase to -2. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 5% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on September 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is up by +0.05%. The euro is slightly higher today due to weakness in the dollar. The euro also has support on expectations that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged at Thursday's policy meeting. Gains in the euro are limited after today's quarterly Bank Lending Survey from the ECB said that loan demand remained weak, a dovish factor for ECB policy and negative for the euro. The euro is also under pressure on concerns that President Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of 15%-20% in any trade deal with the European Union (EU), as Mr. Trump has remained unmoved by the latest EU offer to reduce car tariffs. Higher tariff rates on EU goods could undercut the Eurozone economy, a bearish factor for the euro. The ECB's quarterly Bank Lending Survey stated that 'Loan demand was supported by declining interest rates, but dampened by global uncertainty and trade tensions, and while lenders saw a slight net increase in loan demand in Q2, the uptake remained weak overall.' Swaps are pricing in a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at Thursday's policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is down by -0.51%. The yen recovered from overnight losses and climbed to a 1-week high against the dollar today after T-note yields fell when Treasury Secretary Bessent said 'he sees no reason for Fed Chair Powell to step down right now.' The yen initially moved lower today after Bloomberg reported that BOJ policymakers will likely keep the policy rate at 0.5% at next week's BOJ meeting. The upside in the yen in the near term may be limited due to concerns that the LDP's loss of its majority in Japan's upper house in Sunday's elections may lead to fiscal deterioration in Japan's government finances, as the government boosts spending and implements tax cuts. A report from Bloomberg said that Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials see little need to shift their policy stance of gradually raising interest rates after Prime Minister Ishiba's election setback and that policymakers will likely keep the policy rate at 0.5% at next week's BOJ meeting. Policymakers also want to see how any trade deal between Japan and the US affects the inflation trend and the economy going forward before raising rates again. August gold (GCQ25) today is up +27.60 (+0.81%), and September silver (SIU25) is down -0.019 (-0.05%). Precious metals are mixed today, with gold climbing to a 5-week high. Today's dollar weakness and lower T-note yields are bullish for precious metals. Also, precious metals garnered support from today's ECB quarterly Bank Lending Survey, which said loan demand remained weak in Q2, a dovish factor for ECB policy. Finally, precious metals have safe-haven support from global trade tensions, following President Trump's announcement last Wednesday that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. Fund buying of gold continues to support prices after gold holdings in ETFs rose to a nearly 2-year high Monday. Silver prices fell from a 1-week high today and turned slightly lower after the US July Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to an 11-month low, a negative factor for industrial metals demand. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
21-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Falls as Stocks Rally and T-note Yields Decline
The dollar index (DXY00) Monday fell by -0.65% and posted a 1-week low. The dollar retreated on Monday as a rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high has reduced liquidity demand for the dollar. Lower T-note yields on Monday also pressured the dollar. US June leading economic indicators fell 0.3% m/m, right on expectations. More News from Barchart Dollar Slips Due to Strength in Stocks and Lower T-note Yields Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on September 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Monday rose by +0.58%. The euro rose on Monday due to the dollar's weakness. Also, expectations that the ECB is closer to the end of its easing cycle than the Federal Reserve are boosting the euro as the ECB has cut interest rates four times this year while the Fed has not cut rates yet this year. Additionally, US trade policies are prompting foreign investors to shift away from dollar-denominated assets and into euro-denominated assets. Gains in the euro are limited due to concerns that President Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of 15%-20% in any trade deal with the European Union (EU), as Mr. Trump has remained unmoved by the latest EU offer to reduce car tariffs. Higher tariff rates on EU goods could undercut the Eurozone economy, a bearish factor for the euro. Swaps are pricing in a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at Thursday's policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Monday fell by -0.99%. The yen rallied against the dollar on Monday after Prime Minister Ishiba said he would carry on as leader despite his ruling LDP coalition losing its majority after Sunday's upper house elections. Monday's moves in the yen may be excessive due to below-average trading, as Japanese markets were closed for the Marine Day holiday. The upside in the yen in the near term may be limited due to concerns that the LDP's loss of its majority in Japan's upper house may lead to fiscal deterioration in Japan's government finances, as the government boosts spending and implements tax cuts. Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its majority in the upper house after Sunday's elections, with the LDP party winning only 47 seats, below the 50 it needed to win to maintain control. August gold (GCQ25) Monday closed up +48.10 (+1.43%), and September silver (SIU25) closed up +0.870 (+2.26%). Precious metals settled sharply higher on Monday, with gold reaching a 4-week high. Monday's dollar weakness and lower global government bond yields were bullish for precious metals. Also, precious metals have carryover support from last Friday when Fed Governor Waller expressed support for a Fed interest rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. In addition, precious metals have safe-haven support from global trade tensions, following President Trump's announcement last Wednesday that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
