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4 days ago
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Can U.S. Math Research Survive NSF Funding Cuts?
A 72 percent reduction in federal funding is devastating to math research. The American Mathematical Society is offering $1 million in backstop grants—but it's likely not enough. Mathematics research typically requires few materials. To explore the secrets of prime numbers, investigate unimaginable shapes or elucidate other fundamental mysteries of our universe, mathematicians don't usually need special labs and equipment or to pay participants in clinical trials. Instead funding for mathematicians goes toward meetings of the mind—conferences, workshops and institutes where they gather for intensive sessions to work out math's knottiest problems. Funding also supports the stipends of research fellows, postdoctoral scholars and promising early-career mathematicians. But under the Trump administration's National Science Foundation, much of this funding is being revoked or cut—which, according to experts, could be catastrophic for the present and future of the field. In one recent example, the NSF canceled funding for the Association for Women in Mathematics' research symposium in Wisconsin just four business days before the event was set to begin in May. The threat to this event catalyzed the American Mathematical Society to offer $1 million in backstop grants to support programs whose federal funding has been cut or remains in limbo. These grants are meant to provide a financial safety net that will temporarily allow math programs, researchers and departments to continue operating—but it's not a permanent solution. (Disclosure: The author of this article currently has a AAAS Mass Media Fellowship at Scientific American that is sponsored by the American Mathematical Society.) 'The funding cut is severe, and all of mathematics will be impacted,' says Raegan Higgins, president of the Association for Women in Mathematics and a mathematician at Texas Tech University. [Sign up for Today in Science, a free daily newsletter] Movies and television shows often portray mathematicians scribbling on chalkboards in seclusion, but that picture is often far from accurate. 'None of us work in isolation,' Higgins says. In fact, mathematicians rely heavily on their ability to gather and discuss ideas with their peers—perhaps even more than researchers in other fields do. For mathematicians, conferences, workshops and research talks are not just opportunities to share research and network but also crucial moments to work out tough problems together with colleagues, pose field-propelling questions and generate new ideas. 'It's a thinking science, [and] it's a communication science, so we rely on being together to share ideas and to move the needle forward,' says Darla Kremer, executive director of the Association for Women in Mathematics. According to John Meier, CEO of the American Mathematical Society, 'the ability of mathematicians to gather and talk with each other is absolutely central to the vitality of the field.' Federal dollars, largely through the NSF, are responsible for a significant portion of math funding. But a lot of that funding is disappearing under the Trump administration. In April NSF staff members were instructed to 'stop awarding all funding actions until further notice.' Over the past 10 years, on average, the NSF has awarded $113 million in grants to mathematics by May 21 of each year. This year the NSF has awarded only $32 million, representing a 72 percent reduction. By this metric, mathematics is one of the most deeply affected subjects, second only to physics, which has seen an 85 percent reduction. The administration is also canceling and freezing funding that it had previously promised to researchers. More than $14 million of funding already promised to mathematics programs was revoked earlier this year, according to an analysis by Scientific American. In response to a request for comment, the National Science Foundation told Scientific American that 'the agency has determined that termination of certain awards is necessary because they are not in alignment with current NSF priorities and/or programmatic goals.' This withdrawal of grants is eroding trust and seeding uncertainty, experts say, and it comes with long-term consequences. Even if funding gets renewed again later, it can be very difficult for halted programs to recover. 'If you have to shut down a lab and mothball it, that actually takes time and effort,' Meier says. 'You can't just walk in two weeks later, flip a switch and have everything running again. You've got to rebuild it.' Even in mathematics, that process of rebuilding is time-intensive and not always possible if the space has been reallocated or the people have moved on. American Mathematical Society leadership fears these cuts will hurt young mathematicians the most. Like in the sciences, the funding cuts are eliminating research experiences and supportive programming for undergraduates, fellowships for graduate students and positions for postdoctoral researchers. Travel funding for conferences is also disappearing, which leaves young researchers to choose between shelling out for airfare and lodging they can't really afford and forgoing major career and research building opportunities. As these opportunities disappear, young mathematicians are beginning to look elsewhere—either to more lucrative jobs in the private sector or to more supportive countries. 'We worry about diminishing opportunities in the United States and people early in their career deciding that maybe there's a more profitable venue for them to pursue mathematics in another country,' Meier says. 'We love good mathematics wherever it arises, but we'd really like to see a lot of it arising in the United States. We think that's very, very important.' The $1 million in backstop grants can't fill the hole left by the more than $14 million in promised funding that has been denied or the more than $80 million in reduced funding so far this year. But it might be enough to keep many projects afloat simply by offering guaranteed access to funds in a turbulent time. 'I think one of the great difficulties that we're dealing with right now is the high level of uncertainty,' Meier says. Some mathematicians, for example, simply don't know whether their projects are still being funded or not. In some applications for the backstop grants, researchers 'basically talk about being ghosted,' Meier explains. 'They say, 'I can't actually verify that we no longer have funding. I can only tell you my program officer [at the NSF] isn't replying to my request for information.'' Meier hopes the grants can provide some backup for programs that aren't sure where they stand with the NSF. Without it, researchers, universities and independent organizations may find themselves facing impossible situations. Do they pay their research assistants, run their conferences and continue to fund travel out of pocket, assuming all the financial risk themselves and hoping the grants come through? Or do they halt their projects, losing valuable momentum and perhaps leaving important stakeholders unpaid for their work? Still, the backstop grants are a one-time offering—not a sustainable source of funding for an imperiled field. 'I really view them as trying to take a little bit of the sharp edges off of the sudden loss of funding, as opposed to anything that could sustain the field long-term,' Meier explains. The effects of the Trump administration's cuts to mathematics research—unlike research on, say, Alzheimer's disease, vaccines or climate change—may not be the most immediately concerning to human health and safety. But experts like Meier say that ignoring the role mathematics plays in that development is shortsighted. As a spokesperson of the NSF itself put it in response to an inquiry about the organization's changing priorities (and as the agency has said on its website), 'Mathematical sciences are crucial to everyday society and play an essential role in the innovation engine that drives the U.S. economy, strengthens national security and enhances quality of life.' And the search for the answers to math's biggest mysteries also seeds development in physics, earth science, biology, technology, and more. Any progress we make on these questions in the future, Meier says, is 'based entirely [on what] we are doing in research mathematics right now.' Solve the daily Crossword
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4 days ago
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Can You Drink Saturn's Rings?
It's certainly possible to consume water sourced from the icy rings of Saturn, but doing so safely may require extra steps In November 2024 I was interviewed for a marvelous NPR podcast called Living On Earth about my latest popular science book, Under Alien Skies. While prepping for the show, one of the producers asked me a question that was so deceptively simple, so wonderfully succinct, and came from such an odd direction that I was immediately enamored with it. Can you drink Saturn's rings? After pausing for a moment to savor the question, I replied with one of my favorite responses as a scientist and science communicator: 'I don't know. But I'll try to find out.' [Sign up for Today in Science, a free daily newsletter] So I did. And to my delight, the nuanced answer I found is another personal favorite: Yes! But no. Kinda. It depends. I love this sort of answer because it arises when the science behind a seemingly easy question is very much not so simple. So please grab a frosty glass of (locally sourced) ice water, sit back and let me explain. Saturn's rings were likely first seen by Galileo in 1610. His telescope was fairly low-quality compared with modern equipment. And through its optics, all he could see were a pair of blobs, one on each side of the planet's visible face; he referred to them as Saturn's 'ears.' It wasn't until a few decades later that astronomers realized these 'ears' were actually a planet-encircling ring. Much was still unclear, but one thing was certain: the ring couldn't be solid. The speed at which an object orbits a planet depends on its distance from that world, and Saturn's ring was so wide that the inner edge would orbit much more rapidly than its outer edge, which would shear anything solid apart. Astronomers came up with a variety of different ideas for the structure, including a series of solid ringlets or even a liquid. It wasn't until the mid-1800s that the great Scottish physicist James Clerk Maxwell proved none of these would be stable and instead proposed what we now know to be true: the structure around Saturn was made of countless small particles, which were far too tiny to be seen individually from Earth. Further, these small objects form not just one ring but several, and these major rings are designated by letters in order of their discovery. The A ring is the outermost bright ring. Just interior to it is the bright and broad B ring, which contains most of the entire ring system's mass. Interior to that is the darker C ring, which leads down to the faint D ring that extends almost to the upper atmosphere of Saturn itself. In total these rings stretch across nearly 275,000 kilometers—two thirds of the Earth-moon distance! Despite their immense sprawl, the rings are almost impossibly flat, in many places just about 10 meters thick. Seen exactly edge-on, they look like a narrow line cutting across the planet. But what are they made of? Observations over the centuries have revealed that the main constituent of the rings is startlingly simple: water ice! Good ol' frozen H2O is extremely common in the outer solar system and makes up most of many moons and other small bodies there. In fact, in situ observations performed by the Cassini spacecraft—which orbited Saturn for more than a dozen years—showed that in some places the rings were made of almost perfectly pure water ice. Even better, most of the ring bits are a few centimeters across or smaller—the size of ice cubes, so they're already conveniently packaged. Sounds great! All you need to do then is scoop up some chunks, warm them—a lot (the average temperature of the rings is about –190 degrees Celsius)—and have yourself a nice, refreshing sip. But not so fast. This is where it gets more complicated. The spectra of the rings also show that they aren't made of absolutely pure ice. There's other material in the rings, and even though we're typically talking about contamination of less than 1 percent by mass, it's not clear what this stuff is. Scientists' best guess is that it comes from the impacts of micrometeorites, tiny particles whizzing around the outer solar system. This material is therefore likely composed of silicates (that is, rocks) or abundant metals, namely iron. Neither of these will harm you, although the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommends no more than 0.3 milligram of iron per liter of potable water (to avoid a metallic taste). You'd better run a magnet over your ring water before you drink it—and you should probably filter out any silicate sediments while you're at it. On the other hand, the rings' spectra suggest the presence of some unknown carbon-based contaminants as well. One likely candidate would be complex organic molecules called polycyclic aromatic compounds, or PAHs, which are relatively prevalent in space; many giant stars blow out PAH-laced winds as they die. One molecule that is commonly present in PAHs is cyanonaphthalene, which is considered carcinogenic. (It's unclear, though, how much exposure poses risks to humans—or, for that matter, whether this specific molecule actually exists in the rings.) It's best to be cautious and avoid these potential contaminants by picking your rings carefully. The abundance of water ice is highest in the outer A and middle B rings, for example, whereas the C and D rings appear to be the most contaminated. So, generally speaking, it'd probably be better to opt for ice from A or B while skipping C and D entirely. There could also be other ices in the rings, too, including frozen methane and carbon dioxide. Methane should bubble out when the ice is liquefied, and of course CO2 is what makes carbonated beverages fizzy. That might actually add a fun kick to drinking from the rings! There are other rings, too, outside the major ones we've already mentioned. For example, Saturn's icy moon Enceladus boasts dozens of geysers that blast liquid water from its interior out into space. This material forms a faint, fuzzy ring (the E ring) that, again, is mostly water ice but also contains small amounts of silicates—and noxious ammonia—so I wouldn't recommend it. Still, all in all, it looks like—if carefully curated and cleaned—Saturn's rings are indeed drinkable! How much water is there in the rings, then? The total mass of the rings is about 1.5 × 1019 kilograms, which, correcting for the density of ice and the removal of contaminants, should yield about 10 quintillion liters of water—enough to keep every human on Earth well hydrated for more than a million years. Eventually, if and when humans start to ply the interplanetary space-lanes, they'll need extraterrestrial sources of water because lifting it from Earth is difficult and expensive. Saturn's rings might someday become a popular rest stop. And, oh my, what a view visitors would have as they filled up! My thanks to my friend and outer solar system giant planet astronomer Heidi Hammel for her help with this article and to El Wilson for asking me this terrific question! Solve the daily Crossword
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6 days ago
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Monster Black Hole Merger Is Most Massive Ever Seen
Physicists have detected the biggest ever merger of colliding black holes. The discovery has major implications for researchers' understanding of how such bodies grow in the Universe. 'It's super exciting,' says Priyamvada Natarajan, a theoretical astrophysicist at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut, who was not involved in the research. The merger was between black holes with masses too big for physicists to easily explain. 'We're seeing these forbidden high-mass black holes,' she says. The discovery was made by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO), a facility involving two detectors in the United States. It comes at a time when US funding for gravitational-wave detection faces devastating cuts. The results, released as a preprint on the arXiv server1, were presented at the GR-Amaldi gravitational-waves meeting in Glasgow, UK, on 14 July. [Sign up for Today in Science, a free daily newsletter] LIGO detects gravitational waves by firing lasers down long, L-shaped arms. Minuscule changes in arm length reveal the passage of gravitational waves through the planet. The waves are ripples in space-time, caused by massive bodies accelerating, such as when two inspiralling black holes or neutron stars merge. Hundreds of these mergers have been observed using gravitational waves since LIGO's first detection in 2015. But this latest detection, made in November 2023, is the biggest yet. By modelling the signal detected by LIGO, scientists have calculated that the event, dubbed GW231123, was caused by two black holes with masses of about 100 and 140 times that of the Sun merging to form a final black hole weighing in at some 225 solar masses. 'It's the most massive [merger] so far,' says Mark Hannam, a physicist at Cardiff University, UK, and part of the LVK Collaboration, a wider network of gravitational-wave detectors that encompasses LIGO, Virgo in Italy and KAGRA in Japan. It's 'about 50% more than the previous record holder', he says. Most of the events captured by LIGO involve stellar mass black holes — those ranging from a few to 100 times the mass of the Sun — which are thought to form when massive stars end their lives as supernovae. However, the two black holes involved in GW231123 fall in or near a predicted range, of 60–130 solar masses, at which this process isn't expected to work, with theories instead predicting that the stars should be blown apart. 'So they probably didn't form by this normal mechanism,' says Hannam. Instead, the two black holes probably formed from earlier merger events — hierarchical mergers of massive bodies that led to the event detected by LIGO, which is estimated to have happened 0.7 to 4.1 billion parsecs away (2.3—13.4 billion light years). It's like 'four grandparents merging into two parents merging into one baby black hole', says Alan Weinstein, a physicist at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena and also part of the LVK Collaboration. Models of the black holes also suggest that they were spinning exceedingly fast — about 40 times per second, which is near the limit of what Einstein's general theory of relativity predicts black holes can reach while remaining stable. 'They're spinning very close to the maximal spin allowable,' says Weinstein. Both the spin and the mass could provide clues to how black holes grow in the Universe. One of the biggest questions in astronomy is how the largest black holes, the supermassive black holes found at the centres of galaxies such as the Milky Way, grew in the early cosmos. Although there is plenty of evidence for the existence of stellar mass black holes and supermassive black holes — those of more than a million solar masses — intermediate mass black holes in the range of 100 to 100,000 solar masses have been harder to find. 'We don't see them,' says Natarajan. The latest detection might tell us that 'these intermediate-mass black holes of several hundred solar masses play a role in the evolution of galaxies', says Hannam, perhaps through hierarchical mergers, which could increase the spin speed, as well as the mass, of the resulting black holes. 'Little by little, we're building up a list of the kind of black holes that are out there,' he says. That growth in knowledge could be hampered by the administration of US President Donald Trump and its proposed cuts to the US National Science Foundation, which runs LIGO. Under the proposal, one of LIGO's two gravitational-wave observatories would be shut down. At the time of this detection in November 2023, Virgo and KAGRA were not operational. Without two detectors, scientists would not have been sure that they had made a real detection of two merging black holes, says Hannam. 'Because we had two detectors, we saw the same blip at the same time,' he says. The closure of one of the observatories would be 'catastrophic', says Natarajan. 'This discovery would not be possible if one arm was turned off.' Planned upgrades to LIGO in the coming years, and the addition of new detectors around the world, including one in India, could greatly increase physicists' capabilities in gravitational-wave research, an area of astronomy that is still in its infancy. 'We're going to be seeing thousands of black holes in the next few years,' says Hannam. 'There's this huge investment that's been done, and it's only just beginning to pay off.' This article is reproduced with permission and was first published on July 15, 2025.
Yahoo
14-07-2025
- Health
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Vibrio Bacteria in Beach Water Can Make You Seriously Ill
On a small, gently rocking research boat anchored just offshore in Chesapeake Bay, I lowered a sterile plastic bottle into the water to collect a sample for studying aquatic microbes. Workers nearby dredged oysters from the shallows, and families played in the low waves. To them, it was a perfect summer day. But hidden in the seemingly tranquil waters were Vibrio bacteria, members of a group that exists naturally in coastal environments around the world. Some cause diarrhea, cramping and nausea, and some can produce severe flesh-eating infections and even lead to death. Vibrio live freely in the water, concentrate in sediment and on plastics, and colonize the surfaces and guts of shellfish, fish and zooplankton. For those organisms, the bacteria can often be harmless or even beneficial. The bacteria also recycle nutrients such as carbon and nitrogen by breaking down organic material. They are found in both saltwater and freshwater bodies, and they thrive in warm water. That's why for many years Vibrio infections—called vibriosis—generally occurred along the hottest U.S. coastlines, particularly the Gulf Coast. But climate change is warming once cool waters, and vibriosis cases have been relentlessly spreading northward. Today they are reported across the Eastern Seaboard, along the Baltic Sea in northern Europe, and even as far north as Alaska and Finland. Not only is the bacteria's favorable habitat expanding, but higher water temperatures can allow some Vibrio species to multiply more rapidly. That's especially true when storms and heavy rainfall increase the nutrients and alter salinity in coastal waters, creating ideal conditions for their growth. These perfect circumstances raise the likelihood that someone who steps into the surf with a scraped knee or who accidentally swallows a bit of the water could succumb to serious illness. [Sign up for Today in Science, a free daily newsletter] Over the past decade the research team I'm part of has tracked the northward advance of environmental conditions favorable for pathogenic Vibrio, as well as an associated rise in severe illnesses—most alarming, species that infect open wounds, potentially leading to life-threatening conditions such as necrotizing fasciitis (flesh-eating disease) or blood poisoning. Now we are trying to forecast risk by developing predictive computer models that use environmental data—such as temperature and salinity—gathered from satellites and monitoring stations, along with analyses of microorganisms in water samples when possible. Our goal is to devise a Vibrio alert system, much like the 'red flag' system municipalities use to warn swimmers of dangerous surf. As summers grow hotter and storms more intense, we are trying to design and roll out models that can keep up with a shifting environment and to help coastal communities recognize the increasing risks washing up on their shores. Scientists have described more than 100 Vibrio species. The comma- or bullet-shaped bacteria have evolved to thrive across a wide range of aquatic environments, from shallow coastal bays to deep-sea hydrothermal vents that present some of the most challenging living conditions on Earth. Many speciesform close symbiotic relationships with their host creatures. For instance, Aliivibrio fischeri organisms colonize the light-emitting organ of Hawaiian bobtail squid, helping the animals emit bioluminescence. Others attach to corals, fishes, oysters, and the exoskeletons of shrimp and copepods—tiny marine crustaceans that are fundamental to the food web and are major reservoirs for Vibrio. A single copepod can carry more than 10,000 Vibrio cells, so swallowing even a small amount of seawater can be enough to cause disease. These bacteria also concentrate in filter-feeding shellfish such as oysters, which continuously draw in and process large volumes of water, capturing suspended particles—including microbes—in their gills and tissues. Vibrio love this environment and can multiply inside oysters after harvest if the shellfish are stored or transported without proper refrigeration, raising the risk of infection for anyone who consumes them raw. Temperature is the main prerequisite for Vibrio growth. Like many pathogenic bacteria, Vibrio species flourish in temperatures near that of the human body—around 37 degrees Celsius (98.6 degrees Fahrenheit)—making warm waters especially favorable. Higher temperatures accelerate their metabolism and reproduction and can trigger the expression of genes involved in infection. Salinity is another key factor; Vibrio typically need the sodium ions of salty or brackish water to maintain their cellular function. They are remarkably adaptable, however, and can live in freshwater lakes or ponds. When not living in or on a host, many Vibrio species survive in the water column, attached to particles of organic matter such as detritus, algae or plankton, which provide both nutrients and protection. They have flagella that allow them to swim toward beneficial conditions and colonize nutrient-rich surfaces. They can also persist when resources are scarce, then rapidly multiply when nutrients become abundant, such as after heavy rainfall or algal blooms. Humans can get sick from Vibrio by eating infected seafood such as oysters, unwittingly swallowing a mouthful of ocean water or exposing an open wound to the sea. Illnesses fall into two categories: cholera and noncholera vibriosis. Cholera is an acute diarrheal disease caused by consuming food or water contaminated with Vibrio cholerae. In severe cases, cholera can set in and be fatal within hours as a result of rapid fluid and electrolyte loss, leading to hypovolemic shock and multiple-organ failure if not promptly treated. Access to safe drinking water and medical care has essentially eliminated the disease in developed countries—the U.S. sees fewer than 20 cases a year—but it remains endemic in many parts of the world. Noncholera Vibrio infections lead to an estimated 80,000 illnesses and about 100 deaths annually in the U.S. Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a leading culprit in illnesses contracted from eating contaminated seafood, although cases of foodborne illness caused by Vibrio vulnificus are on the rise. V. vulnificus is one of the deadliest waterborne pathogens—a well-known cause of necrotizing fasciitis and bloodstream infections—with fatality rates exceeding 50 percent in severe cases. V. vulnificus is now responsible for about 95 percent of all seafood-derived deaths related to Vibrio in the U.S. Other species, including Vibrio alginolyticus and Vibrio fluvialis, can cause infections of the skin, eyes, ears and gastrointestinal tract and are increasingly reported as emerging pathogens in coastal areas. Vibriosis has long followed a distinct seasonal rhythm, with infections peaking along the U.S. Gulf Coast during the warmer months. The same elevated water temperatures and nutrient levels responsible for this trend strongly influence how readily the bacteria are transmitted to people. Climate change is extending summer seasons, encouraging more recreational water use and thus raising the risk of exposure. Increased global travel, aquaculture trade, maritime shipping and populations along coastlines can help spread these bacteria, too. Between 1990 and 2019 the range of several vibriosis illnesses expanded northward by up to 70 kilometers a year. For instance, V. vulnificus infections rarely occurred north of Georgia in the late 1980s, but by 2018 they were reported as far north as Philadelphia. This movement accelerated in 2023 and 2024, when deaths linked to V. vulnificus occurred in major cities in New York State, Rhode Island and Connecticut—a striking advance. V. alginolyticus illnesses first appeared outside the Gulf Coast region in 1999, in North Carolina, and were reported as far north as Maine by the end of 2004. Similarly, V. fluvialis and V. parahaemolyticus infections emerged along the mid-Atlantic coast in the late 1990s and reached Maine by the early 2000s. In Europe, Vibrio infections were reported in Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Norway by 2014. Although data from the Southern Hemisphere remain limited, warming in coastal waters suggests comparable expansions may be underway. Scientists project that the economic burden in the U.S. from Vibrio outbreaks will climb from approximately $2.6 billion annually to as high as $8.6 billion by the end of this century. Among the most troubling climatic phenomena are powerful hurricanes, whose storm surges and flooding generate ideal conditions for Vibrio growth. In early October 2016 Hurricane Matthew unleashed heavy rains across Haiti's southwestern coast, overwhelming sewers, latrines, drinking water systems, and other sanitation infrastructure just as temperatures soared. The conditions triggered one of the largest cholera outbreaks in modern history, ultimately resulting in more than 600,000 reported cases in the two years following the hurricane. In September 2022, when Hurricane Ian, a Category 5 storm, devastated Florida's Gulf Coast, the storm surge stirred up coastal sediments and organic matter in the warm waters, creating optimal conditions for pathogenic Vibrio species to thrive. In the month after the storm, 11 people died from vibriosis, according to state health officials. In late 2024 back-to-back hurricanes Helene and Milton inundated the same region, mixing warm salt water and fresh water into pools teeming with these pathogens. Florida reported a sharp surge in V. vulnificus infections in the month following the storms, including severe cases of necrotizing fasciitis. Officials urgently warned residents to avoid contact with floodwaters and to protect open wounds. As hurricanes grow stronger and more frequent, public health emergencies involving Vibrio may increase. Scientists have been exploring the hidden relations between environmental conditions and the spread of pathogens since the 1960s. In 1996 Rita Colwell, a microbiologist and distinguished professor emerita at the University of Maryland, was the first to propose using satellite remote sensing to predict cholera outbreaks, linking the potential for an epidemic to environmental signals such as sea-surface temperature, heavy rainfall and chlorophyll levels; chlorophyll indicates the abundance of phytoplankton, a food source for zooplankton that serve as vectors for Vibrio. Today these insights form the foundation of cholera-prediction models used in several countries across Southeast Asia and Africa. When outbreaks are forecast weeks before they occur, public health authorities can rapidly mobilize health personnel and resources to vulnerable communities and significantly reduce the number of cholera-related deaths. Teams set up temporary health centers, distribute safe drinking water and sanitation supplies, launch vaccination campaigns, and educate people about hygiene—all to limit transmission before outbreaks can escalate. In 2017, inspired by this work, I joined Colwell's research group to help expand predictive capabilities to other pathogenic Vibrio species threatening the Chesapeake Bay, where the team has been collecting samples. Continuous surveillance showed that when water temperatures reached approximately 15 degrees C (59 degrees F), the numbers of V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus began to climb steadily. Once the temperatures warmed beyond 25 degrees C (77 degrees F), growth soared. That's a serious concern given that coastal waters from Florida to the Chesapeake Bay now routinely exceed that level in summer. We also identified specific ranges of salinity that were strongly associated with higher Vibrio abundance. These ranges are far less salty than open ocean water and are typical of brackish conditions found where rivers meet bays. In addition, we found that chlorophyll concentrations typical during modest to large phytoplankton blooms were linked to greater Vibrio numbers, most likely reflecting the presence of abundant nutrients and zooplankton. What alarmed us most was clear evidence of a long-term increase in Vibrio abundance throughout the Chesapeake Bay between 2009 and 2022. The pathogens are not only growing more abundant; they are active for much longer periods each year. Historically, the number of Vibrio rose in late spring, remained elevated through the summer, then receded in early autumn. Now the bacteria population stays high well into the winter months. Our team and colleagues at the University of Maryland School of Public Health have found that in Maryland, the annual rate of vibriosis cases between 2013 and 2019 was roughly 40 percent higher than that in the period from 2006 to 2012. Hospitalizations increased by approximately 60 percent. The highest hospitalization rates were in coastal and rural counties of southern and eastern Maryland—particularly near the lower Chesapeake Bay. As climate change transforms coastal ecosystems, Vibrio health risks will last longer, affect a broader geographic range and impact more people every year. When detected early and treated promptly, most Vibrio infections, especially those causing gastrointestinal illness, can be managed with oral or intravenous rehydration. More severe cases, particularly wound infections such as necrotizing fasciitis or sepsis, require antibiotics and sometimes emergency surgery. Yet these treatments are becoming less reliable as antibiotic-resistant strains of Vibrio become increasingly common. Approved vaccines exist only for V. cholerae, but they typically provide protection for only a few years. No approved human vaccines are yet available for noncholera species, although a few are being developed for the fish and shrimp aquaculture industries. Given these factors, public health officials are emphasizing awareness to lessen exposure. Building on nearly six decades of cholera research in the Chesapeake Bay, our team has demonstrated that predictive-risk models can help forecast and reduce outbreaks of waterborne disease. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science also developed a probability model to estimate the likelihood of finding V. vulnificus in the Chesapeake Bay. Using temperature and salinity data, NOAA provides a daily average prediction for the previous six days, the current day and the next day. The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control created the Vibrio map viewer to predict hotspots across the Baltic Sea. These models, however, are highly location-specific. Environmental factors that heighten Vibrio risk in the Chesapeake Bay will not necessarily raise the same concerns along Florida's Gulf Coast, where salinity is much higher and seasonal patterns differ. Because each Vibrio species can respond differently to various conditions, the models must be tailored to specific ecosystems. Accurate prediction also requires long-term, site-specific environmental and microbiological data—datasets that are limited in many regions. With Colwell, Anwar Huq of the University of Maryland, and Antar Jutla and Bailey Magers, both at the University of Florida, we are using machine learning to refine risk models. They include not only local environmental conditions but also human behavior patterns such as recreational water use and seafood consumption. Demographics are key because certain populations—such as older adults and people with liver disease or weakened immune systems—are more susceptible to severe Vibrio infections. By incorporating these factors, we can better predict vibriosis risk. Since 2022 we have been sampling regions of the Gulf Coast that were severely affected by hurricanes and have recently reported spikes in Vibrio infections, such as Lee County and Tampa Bay in Florida. And we have been collecting water and oyster samples from numerous Gulf sites. By combining these real-world data with environmental variables sensed by satellites, we are developing real-time early-warning systems that reflect the unique ecological dynamics of each region. To protect coastal communities around the world, we need more environmental monitoring, standardized reporting of human infections, and long-term datasets to help train models—not only for Vibrio but for a broader range of waterborne pathogens. Ideally, early-warning systems for vibriosis would operate much like air-quality or rip-current alerts: when conditions become favorable for Vibrio growth, automated messages could notify beachgoers, marine workers and aquaculture fisheries through cell-phone alerts and social media or public advisories. This real-time information could prompt simple but potentially lifesaving behavior changes and practices such as covering any cuts or scrapes with waterproof bandages, avoiding water altogether for people who have open wounds, and abstaining from eating raw shellfish unless it is sourced from monitored waters. Public health messaging must also counter outdated beliefs such as the myth that salty seawater 'cleans' wounds. It doesn't; exposing open wounds to seawater can significantly increase the risk of severe infection. These strategies could be extended to freshwater areas as well. As Vibrio threats evolve, science must, too. An intriguing feature of Vibrio is their ability to withstand harsh conditions by entering a state known as viable but nonculturable (VBNC), first described by Colwell and her students at the University of Maryland, College Park. In the VBNC state, bacteria remain alive but become inactive. As a result, they cannot be grown using standard laboratory techniques that are widely employed to monitor environmental pathogens. Despite their dormancy, VBNC cells can quickly revert to an active, infectious state once conditions improve—exactly the case in the warm, nutrient-rich environment of the human gut. For years it was hard for researchers to detect cells in the elusive VBNC state. Advances in molecular analysis have significantly improved our ability to find them in the environment, including the polymerase chain reaction technique, which can amplify trace amounts of DNA to detectable levels, and high-throughput sequencing, which provides the order of DNA bases across millions of fragments simultaneously—allowing us to identify which species and even what genes are present. In my research, I use DNA-based techniques known as metagenomics to profile all microorganisms in a sample—including bacteria, viruses, fungi, and protists (organisms that fall between the other taxonomic rankings)—and to identify pathogens and detect antibiotic-resistance genes. My colleagues and I also apply RNA-based methods to assess gene expression in suspect microbes, which gives us a clearer picture of not just 'who' is there but also 'what' they are doing. These approaches are especially valuable because they can circumvent issues associated with detecting microorganisms in the VBNC state. Using these tools, we have discovered a much broader diversity of Vibrio in coastal waters than previously recognized. In one sample from Florida's Gulf Coast, we identified more than 80 distinct Vibrio species, including strains that are known to cause disease in humans and many that carry genes for antibiotic resistance. These high-resolution datasets enable us to predict not just when V. vulnificus or V. parahaemolyticus might be present but when the bacteria are likely to become more active or dangerous. This information also allows us to account for complex ecological interactions—for example, how blooms of algae or shifts in salinity can enhance or suppress certain Vibrio populations. Using these techniques to improve predictive models and warnings requires frequent water sampling at specific locations. Researchers must analyze the samples quickly and share results with teams running the models, updating them in near-real time. Right now this type of analysis takes days to weeks and is expensive, although costs are declining. To make it more feasible, we are developing field-ready aids such as portable sequencing devices like biotechnology company Oxford Nanopore's MinION, which local agencies or shellfish harvesters could use soon after satellite alerts flag potential risks. We are adapting these tools to track other enteric pathogens such as Salmonella,Escherichia coli and Cryptosporidium, using the molecular techniques that we employed during the COVID pandemic to track community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus through wastewater surveillance. As we deepen our understanding of Vibrio genetics, new concerns emerge. The bacteria are remarkably adaptable, frequently acquiring new traits through mutation and horizontal gene transfer—the direct exchange of genetic material—which allows them to rapidly evolve in response to changing environmental pressures. Indeed, V. cholerae originally gained its capacity to produce cholera toxin from a bacteriophage, a virus that infects bacteria. Some V. vulnificus strains have recently evolved greater heat tolerance, letting them persist longer in warm waters. Certain V. parahaemolyticus strains have acquired genes that improve their ability to infect hosts. These adaptations not only make infections potentially more severe and harder to treat, especially when antibiotic-resistance genes are involved, but also complicate the design of early-warning systems. A predictive-risk model may fail to account for newly evolved strains or those in a VBNC state. That's why long-term environmental surveillance is so essential to providing a powerful public health tool. If we identify when and where the risk of Vibrio exposure is high, we can issue timely alerts to the public, support coordinated responses, guide resource allocation and inform health policy decisions.
Yahoo
14-07-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
DeepMind's AlphaGenome Uses AI to Decipher Noncoding DNA for Research, Personalized Medicine
The puzzle seems impossible: take a three-billion-letter code and predict what happens if you swap a single letter. The code we're talking about—the human genome—stores most of its instructions in genetic 'dark matter,' the 98 percent of DNA that doesn't make proteins. AlphaGenome, an artificial intelligence system just released by Google DeepMind in London, aims to show how even tiny changes in those noncoding sections affect gene expression. DeepMind's newly released technology could transform how we treat genetic diseases. Though scientists long dismissed noncoding DNA as 'junk,' we now know this so-called dark matter controls when and how genes turn on or off. AlphaGenome shows promise in predicting how mutations in these regions cause diseases—from certain cancers to rare disorders where crucial proteins never get made. By revealing these hidden control switches, AlphaGenome could help researchers design therapies that target genetic conditions, potentially aiding millions of people. But to understand the complexity of the task for which AlphaGenome was created, one must consider how the definition of a 'gene' has evolved. The term, coined in 1909 to describe invisible units of heredity (as proposed by Gregor Mendel in 1865) initially carried no molecular baggage. But by the 1940s, the 'one gene, one enzyme' idea took hold. And by the 1960s, textbooks taught that for a stretch of DNA to be properly called a gene, it had to code for a specific protein. [Sign up for Today in Science, a free daily newsletter] Over the past two decades, the definition has broadened with the discoveries of genes that code for the numerous types of RNAs that don't get translated into proteins. Today a gene is considered to be any DNA segment whose RNA or protein product performs a biological function. This conceptual shift underscores the genome's real estate map: Only about 1 to 2 percent of human DNA directly codes for proteins. But with the broader definition, roughly 40 percent is gene territory. What remains unaccounted for is significant: more than a billion units of code that can determine how and how often genes get activated. Because relevant clues lie far apart and play out through complex cycles of gene regulation, decoding them has been among biology's hardest challenges. AlphaGenome's goal is to understand how these regions affect gene expression—and how even tiny changes can tilt the entire body's balance between health and disease. To do so, the AI system uses a DNA sequence with a length of up to one million letters as input—and 'predicts thousands of molecular properties characterising its regulatory activity,' according to a statement issued by DeepMind. Already, AlphaGenome has replicated results from genetics labs. In a June 2025 preprint study (which has yet to be peer-reviewed), AlphaGenome's team described using the model to run a simulation that mirrored known DNA interactions: mutations that act like rogue light switches by cranking a gene into overdrive in a certain type of leukemia. When AlphaGenome simulated interactions on a stretch of DNA containing both the gene and the mutation, it predicted the same complex chain of events that were already observed in lab experiments. Though AlphaGenome is currently available only for noncommercial testing, responses in the scientific community have been enthusiastic so far, with both biotech start-ups and university researchers publicly expressing excitement about the system's potential to accelerate research. Limits remain. AlphaGenome struggles to capture interactions that are more than 100,000 DNA letters away, can miss some tissue-specific nuances and is not designed to predict traits from a complete personal genome. Complex diseases that depend on development or environment also lie outside its direct scope. The system does suggest wide-ranging uses, however: By tracing how minute changes ripple through gene regulation, it could pinpoint the roots of genetic disorders. It could help in the design of synthetic DNA. And above all, it could offer a faster way to chart the genome's complex regulatory circuitry.
