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Washington Post
23-05-2025
- Business
- Washington Post
The surprising ways U.S. weather data powers everyday commerce
What to stock on the shelves. Which airport destination to choose for a freight shipment. The specifications for bridge building. Across the country, retailers make calls every day based on weather and climate data from the Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. These agencies' datasets and services — all based on an expansive network of satellites, data buoys, balloons, aircraft and weather stations that collect more than a billion environmental observations every day — play a key role in the nation's economy, research shows. 'Most of the economy is built off of [NOAA data] in some way because weather affects everything,' said climate scientist Tom Di Liberto, who worked as a public affairs specialist for the agency until he was laid off alongside hundreds of other probationary employees in March. Now, some in the private sector are worried about ongoing staff and funding cuts at the agency, as well as President Donald Trump's proposal to slash more than $1.6 billion from the agency's budget. A NOAA spokesperson said the cuts are focused on 'projects and reports that are viewed as obsolete, burdensome or unnecessary,' and that the agency would continue to serve the commercial sector and guard public safety. But interviews and reviews of agency documents show the list of proposed cuts includes services used by businesses that people depend on every day. Here are some of the sectors that most rely on NOAA — and what could happen if those resources are cut: Several years ago, managers at Honda Power Equipment noticed a strange trend in their sales data: If there had been a late-season snowstorm one winter, people were more likely to purchase snowblowers the following fall. The recent memory of shoveling by hand, the company realized, perhaps inspired customers to buy a power tool to deal with the next year's storms. The company knew this trend could help with decisions about when and where to stock snowblowers, according to a 2017 case study. So Honda turned to NOAA's Regional Snowfall Index (RSI), which ranks and maps snowstorms based on size, severity and ways people are affected. With that data, Honda can make 'recommendations to retailers to stock their merchandise in the most strategic locations to optimize sales,' the case study said. That report, produced for NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), cites several other retailers who use agency datasets to make decisions. The food company Conagra said it used NOAA's monthly state of the climate reports to show how canned tomato sales spike during cold weather — which helped the company market its goods to grocers. Foot Locker said it depends on temperature and precipitation data to budget for heating, air conditioning and other utility costs at its stores. In a budget document reviewed by The Washington Post in April, the Trump administration proposed a 25 percent cut in funding for NCEI — which produces the Regional Snow Index, monthly climate reports and other environmental datasets. 'When you impact NOAA and its partners, you're impacting the entire workflow and research and data flow process that very directly affects our economy,' said Jenny Dissen from the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies who oversees NOAA collaborations with the retail sector. In January 1994, a surprise blizzard struck Louisville, dropping nearly 16 inches of snow and bringing the entire city — including its massive UPS air hub — to a standstill. The unexpected delays proved so costly to the shipping company that UPS decided to launch its own meteorology team to ensure it was never caught off-guard again. 'Someone awaiting a package in Bangkok doesn't care if it snowed in Louisville, Kentucky,' Randy Baker, a senior meteorologist for UPS Airlines, told The Post in 2014. 'They want their stuff.' Even though UPS and other delivery companies have their own meteorology units, they still rely heavily on a NOAA service known as the 'climate disk.' The extensive dataset contains information from nearly 6,500 sites around the world, ranging from monthly climate summaries to hourly updates about temperature, precipitation, wind and other environmental factors. In a 2018 report, FedEx meteorologist Kory Gempler explained how the company depends on this data to determine the likelihood of visibility issues like fog that might prevent aircraft from being able to land on certain runways at particular airports. That information is then used to determine whether freight should be sent to a more distant airport and then transported by truck the rest of the way to its destination. A spokeswoman for FedEx said the company's 13 meteorologists still use the climate disk for their operations, but declined to comment on how the company might be affected by any cuts to NOAA's budget. NOAA also oversees fisheries for hundreds of different species of aquatic life — and gathers data that ensures harvests are sustainable. Data from commercial boats and vessel tracking systems, for example, feed into analyses known as stock assessments. Scientists determine the abundance of species such as red snapper in the Gulf of Mexico, Pacific salmon, Alaskan crab and Atlantic sea scallop to inform quotas that guide how much commercial fishing boats can harvest while also protecting vulnerable species. Those efforts supported 1.8 million jobs in the fishing and seafood industries as of 2019, according to NOAA. For some in the fishing industry, there is disagreement about how accurate NOAA's population estimates can be, said Dustin Delano, a fourth-generation Maine lobsterman and chief operating officer for the New England Fishermen's Stewardship Association. But Delano said he also worries that, if cuts to NOAA staff and budgets slow down the process of managing key commercial fisheries, it could add new layers of financial uncertainty that are putting many fishing operations out of business. 'We want to make sure it's done in a strategic way so our fisheries can still operate,' Delano said. For years, engineers have eagerly anticipated the release of NOAA's Atlas 15, a gigantic new map of precipitation estimates that will indicate the kinds of rainstorms that are likely to happen in every community in the country. Dan Walker, a geologist at the American Society of Civil Engineers, said new data will be key to ensure that buildings, bridges and other infrastructure can withstand weather where they're built. For example, the amount of snow an area receives can determine whether someone constructs their home using 2-by-4s or sturdier (and more expensive) 2-by-6 studs. 'If you make the wrong choice, your roof will collapse,' said Walker, who co-chairs a joint task force with NOAA aimed at improving building codes to account for extreme weather fueled by climate change. 'But if you make the other wrong choice, you'll spend 25 percent more on your house unnecessarily.' For some places, he said NOAA's precipitation estimates have not been updated in more than 20 years. And unlike previous precipitation maps, Atlas 15 was supposed to incorporate projections for how rainfall could change over the next century as a result of human-caused warming. The research is mostly complete and is undergoing peer review. But the funding for finalizing the work and making it publicly available is in question, Walker said, as the Trump administration targets NOAA's climate programs for elimination. Already, an analysis of the technical documentation for Atlas 15 shows that references to 'global warming' were recently changed to 'global temperature.' Civil engineers — and the communities that rely on them — can't afford for Atlas 15 or other NOAA projects to be curtailed, Walker said. No other institution can match the scope, depth and reliability of the agency's data. 'If we're doing civil infrastructure, the American public needs to be able to understand where is the data coming from, how are the calculations being done,' he added. 'And to date, the only place we can do that is NOAA.' John Muyskens contributed to this report.
Yahoo
03-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
La Niña is dead — what that means for this year's hurricanes and weather
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. After one of the strongest El Niños on record ended in 2024, meteorologists predicted La Niña — the counterpart to this climate pattern — would follow. Signals of a slowly developing and "unusual" La Niña strengthened over the winter, but began to falter in recent months. By March it was dead. So what happened — and how might that impact this summer's weather and the coming Atlantic hurricane season? El Niño is a seasonal shift in Pacific Ocean temperatures that can suppress hurricanes, change rainfall patterns and bend the jet stream. Its cold-water counterpart, La Niña, tends to do the opposite: feed Atlantic hurricanes and elevate wildfire risk in the West. Together, they form the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO refers to seasonal climate shifts rooted in Pacific Ocean surface temperature changes. Changes in wind patterns and currents can draw cold water from the deep ocean, where it interacts with the atmosphere in complex ways. Even small deviations in sea surface temperatures can tilt global weather over the coming months toward hot and dry — or rainy and cool — depending on the region. "It's an incredibly powerful system," said Emily Becker, a University of Miami research professor and co-author of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) ENSO blog. "El Niño and La Niña conditions affect rainfall, snow, temperature, the hurricane season, and tornado formation. They've been tied to fluctuations in the financial markets, crop yields, and all kinds of things.' "Scientifically, we care about it because it's really cool," she told Live Science. "But practically, we care because it gives us this early idea about the next six to 12 months." Scientists monitor a narrow strip in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. A 0.9-degree-Fahrenheit (0.5-degree Celsius) rise or fall in average surface temperature there, sustained for five overlapping three-month periods, can signal the onset of El Niño or La Niña, respectively. However, the "average" is a moving target, based on a 30-year baseline, from 1991 to 2020, which is becoming outdated as the climate warms. "We're always playing catch-up," Tom Di Liberto, a former NOAA meteorologist and ENSO blog contributor, told Live Science. ENSO-neutral patterns occur when surface temperatures hover near the long-term norm. But neutral doesn't mean benign — it may just mean the forecast is trickier. Instead of asking why La Niña was short-lived, the better question might be whether it happened at all. While ocean surface temperatures this winter dipped below average, they didn't stay that way long enough: By mid-April, NOAA forecasters revealed that a full-fledged La Niña event had failed to develop. Why not? "Trade winds play a big role," Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, a climate scientist at Columbia Climate School's Center for Climate Systems Research, told Live Science. He explained that weakening trade winds in the eastern Pacific likely kept cold water from rising to the surface — a key step in forming a robust La Niña. But the story may not be over. When the 30-year temperature baseline is revised to include more recent, warmer years, future analysts might reclassify this winter's La Niña in the historical record, even if it didn't qualify in real time. Without El Niño or La Niña tipping the scale, forecasting gets harder. These patterns sharpen the blur of seasonal predictions, adding crucial information about how the weather might drift from the usual script. Without them, when ENSO is neutral, they're left squinting into the future with little more than historical averages and climate trends. "Without an El Niño or a La Niña, a range of other factors drive seasonal weather," James Done, a project scientist at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, told Live Science. "These are less well understood, and the strength of the relationships is weaker. It's very complex." Still, forecasters generally agree that this summer will likely be hotter than normal. "Surprise, surprise," Done said, "we have a background warming trend." El Niño usually suppresses hurricanes, whereas La Niña and neutral conditions let them run wild. With a warm Atlantic and ENSO expected to stay neutral, that could mean a busy season. "El Niño tends to increase vertical wind shear, and vertical wind shear tears apart hurricanes," Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist and hurricane forecast expert at Colorado State University, told Live Science via email. "Consequently, [without El Niño], we anticipate relatively hurricane-favorable wind shear patterns this summer and fall." Others offered optimism. Ehsan said a cooling trend in the Atlantic from February to March could signal a quieter Atlantic hurricane season. However, scientists say old rules of thumb become less reliable as background conditions change. "Last year was a weird one," Di Liberto said, referring to La Niña. "All signs pointed toward a horrible hurricane season, but it wasn't the worst-case scenario it could have been." 2023 didn't follow the script either. "We had an El Niño in 2023 but still saw more storms than usual," Done said. "So, there's a big debate: Does El Niño still kill off hurricanes, or are oceans now so warm that it changes the relationship? It's an open question." In an April 10 statement, NOAA representatives wrote that El Niño or La Niña conditions likely won't turn up this summer and that ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to last through October. As summer fades to fall and winter, the chances for La Niña rise, but the most likely scenario is still ENSO-neutral. That said, scientists caution against putting too much stock into springtime ENSO forecasts. "Spring is a messy time for forecasting," Di Liberto said. That's because ENSO conditions primarily form during winter and fade into the spring, offering fewer reliable signals. "June is usually when things get more confident," he added. No one knows how climate change will affect ENSO patterns, but scientists are concerned about the warming oceans and atmosphere. "Warmer air holds more water. It's fundamental," Becker said. "That's a factor in why we're seeing some hurricanes deposit unbelievable amounts of rain — it's partly due to the higher moisture capacity of the atmosphere." RELATED STORIES —How strong can hurricanes get? —Here's why storm surge during hurricanes can be so catastrophic —Birth of a hurricane: What meteorologists look for as they hunt for early signs of a tropical cyclone forming Warm waters can extend a hurricane season or fuel storms farther north. Once envisioned as coastal threats, storms are increasingly driving inland. For example, Hurricane Helene devastated Appalachian communities hundreds of miles from the sea in 2024. "You're making a better and bigger sponge, and it gets wrung out somewhere," Di Liberto said. "And communities have to deal with incomprehensible amounts of rainfall and flooding." However, our understanding of hurricanes is incomplete, Done said. Our observational record extends back less than 160 years — just a blink of geologic time. Scientists who have studied the geologic record of ancient cyclones have found evidence of stronger hurricanes making landfall in the distant past, often tied to periods of climate change. If the present is the key to the past, the past nods back: Earth has seen worse — and with oceans warming fast, scientists warn it may only be a matter of time before historically unprecedented storms strike again.
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Commerce refires probationary employees as court order lifts
The Commerce Department and its National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are already refiring probationary employees after a temporary court restraining order was lifted. The Trump administration first attempted to get rid of the employees, who were recently hired or promoted, en masse earlier this year, but it was halted by a temporary court restraining order, and employees were brought back to the government on administrative leave. That restraining order was lifted last week, and the Commerce Department began to fire them again. It's not clear whether other federal departments also moved to refire their probationary workers after the court order expired. The Commerce Department appears to be carrying out some of the administration's most aggressive efforts to cut federal workers as it moves to slash the civil service workforce and government spending. The Commerce Department did not respond to The Hill's request for comment. 'It's ridiculous. They're playing with us,' said Tom Di Liberto, a climate scientist and public affairs specialist at NOAA who was fired, rehired and fired again last week. 'You're treating us like we're enemies of the state,' Di Liberto said. 'It's just very, very, very frustrating, especially knowing that the court cases are still ongoing, so we still might get reinstated again. We have no idea. And these are people's lives. They rely on this money.' NOAA, an agency that researches weather, climate and oceans, appears to be a particular target of cuts from the administration's Department of Government Efficiency. A proposal that leaked last week called for a 27 percent cut to the agency and the elimination of its Oceanic and Atmospheric Research office. 'What's happening is unnecessary, cruel, and deeply life-altering. I know, because I'm one of you and I'm feeling the same heartbreak and uncertainty,' Rachel Brittin, another NOAA worker who was let go, said in a post on LinkedIn. However, the refirings stretch well beyond the oceans and weather agency. Two employees with the International Trade Administration told The Hill that they too were refired after the restraining order expired. They asked to remain anonymous to prevent limitations on their future job prospects. One of the employees said they were a single parent who relied on the income from their job to remain afloat — income that's now gone in light of the government's actions. 'I tried to apply for Medicaid here; we were denied,' the person said, adding they were able to get emergency access to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). 'I had to go to a pantry to get food.' 'A lot of us live paycheck-to-paycheck,' the person said. The other employee moved from the Washington, D.C., area to another state for their job. This person worked for the federal government helping to promote exports coming from the Republican-led state where they were stationed. 'A business in [this state] could essentially walk into my office and have the entire world at their disposal just by me reaching out to my counterparts in Chile, in Australia, in Brazil,' the person said. 'I absolutely think our work helps the economy,' they said. Last month, a court ruling forced the Commerce Department and other agencies to reinstate federal workers. Many workers received a notice saying they would be reinstated but would be put on 'paid, non-duty status' — essentially being paid not to work. However, at least one Commerce employee told The Hill that even while the restraining order was in place, their reinstatement had been rescinded. Ashley Smith, who trained patent officers in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, shared an email with The Hill from March that said her reinstatement 'will not proceed as previously communicated' despite the court order. Smith, a mother of two and Air Force veteran, said she was not given an explanation of why she was not given the pay that was temporarily awarded to others in her cohort. 'It's really causing a problem,' Smith told The Hill. 'I still have bills. I still have rent to pay … I'm a single parent of two.' The patent office declined to comment when reached by The Hill at the time. Meanwhile, what will ultimately happen to the temporary workers is not clear, as the court cases surrounding their employment are still ongoing. Various government agencies are also still considering large-scale firings of employees across the board. Julia Shapero contributed. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
16-04-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Commerce refires probationary employees as court order lifts
The Commerce Department and its National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are already refiring probationary employees after a temporary court restraining order was lifted. The Trump administration first attempted to get rid of the employees, who were recently hired or promoted, en masse earlier this year, but it was halted by a temporary court restraining order, and employees were brought back to the government on administrative leave. That restraining order was lifted last week, and the Commerce Department began to fire them again. It's not clear whether other federal departments also moved to refire their probationary workers after the court order expired. The Commerce Department appears to be carrying out some of the administration's most aggressive efforts to cut federal workers as it moves to slash the civil service workforce and government spending. The Commerce Department did not respond to The Hill's request for comment. 'It's ridiculous. They're playing with us,' said Tom Di Liberto, a climate scientist and public affairs specialist at NOAA who was fired, rehired and fired again last week. 'You're treating us like we're enemies of the state,' Di Liberto said. 'It's just very, very, very frustrating, especially knowing that the court cases are still ongoing, so we still might get reinstated again. We have no idea. And these are people's lives. They rely on this money.' NOAA, an agency that researches weather, climate and oceans, appears to be a particular target of cuts from the administration's Department of Government Efficiency. A proposal that leaked last week called for a 27 percent cut to the agency and the elimination of its Oceanic and Atmospheric Research office. 'What's happening is unnecessary, cruel, and deeply life-altering. I know, because I'm one of you and I'm feeling the same heartbreak and uncertainty,' Rachel Brittin, another NOAA worker who was let go, said in a post on LinkedIn. However, the refirings stretch well beyond the oceans and weather agency. Two employees with the International Trade Administration told The Hill that they too were refired after the restraining order expired. They asked to remain anonymous to prevent limitations on their future job prospects. One of the employees said they were a single parent who relied on the income from their job to remain afloat — income that's now gone in light of the government's actions. 'I tried to apply for Medicaid here; we were denied,' the person said, adding they were able to get emergency access to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). 'I had to go to a pantry to get food.' 'A lot of us live paycheck-to-paycheck,' the person said. The other employee moved from the Washington, D.C., area to another state for their job. This person worked for the federal government helping to promote exports coming from the Republican-led state where they were stationed. 'A business in [this state] could essentially walk into my office and have the entire world at their disposal just by me reaching out to my counterparts in Chile, in Australia, in Brazil,' the person said. 'I absolutely think our work helps the economy,' they said. Last month, a court ruling forced the Commerce Department and other agencies to reinstate federal workers. Many workers received a notice saying they would be reinstated but would be put on 'paid, non-duty status' — essentially being paid not to work. However, at least one Commerce employee told The Hill that even while the restraining order was in place, their reinstatement had been rescinded. Ashley Smith, who trained patent officers in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, shared an email with The Hill from March that said her reinstatement 'will not proceed as previously communicated' despite the court order. Smith, a mother of two and Air Force veteran, said she was not given an explanation of why she was not given the pay that was temporarily awarded to others in her cohort. 'It's really causing a problem,' Smith told The Hill. 'I still have bills. I still have rent to pay … I'm a single parent of two.' The patent office declined to comment when reached by The Hill at the time. Meanwhile, what will ultimately happen to the temporary workers is not clear, as the court cases surrounding their employment are still ongoing. Various government agencies are also still considering large-scale firings of employees across the board.
Yahoo
11-03-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
NOAA to layoff 1,000 more workers at already depleted weather agency: ‘There's going to be pain and a lot of it'
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is bracing for even more devastating cuts to its workforce - with another 1,000 workers set to be let go, officials confirmed to The Independent. The latest firings would affect 10 percent of the agency's remaining workforce, though it's unclear which departments would be hit in the new round after 1,2000 were let go late last month. "NOAA was already understaffed for the mission that is congressionally mandated. And to sustain this initial round of cuts, much less further cuts, much less the fiscal cuts that are in the continuing resolution, there's going to be pain and a lot of it,' an unnamed official who left during the Biden-Trump transition told The Independent. The first layoffs hit the agency at the end of last month, as officials warned about the impacts on the weather forecasting agency. 'Until NOAA's response is provided we won't know which personnel and which offices will be affected, but a cut of that size (1,029 staff) on top of the almost 1,200 already either terminated or issued deferred resignations will have significant impact on NOAA's mission,' former administrator Dr. Richard Spinrad told The Independent in a statement. He repeated the message that even before terminations, retirements or reduction in force that 'NOAA was already understaffed.' Since then, the effects have threatened critical and local forecasting facilities, commercial fisheries and canceled internships. 'Everything that's happened is just making the U.S. less safe and really making the world less safe,' Tom DiLiberto, a climate scientist who had worked at NOAA since 2010, previously told The Independent. '...This affects everybody, no matter where you live.' The former official, who called terminations "capricious, malicious, ill-informed" and "poorly executed,' said they had heard through the grapevine that the Boston, Boise, Idaho, and at least one forecasting center in the middle of the country had been so decimated by buy-outs and terminations that it was unclear if they would be able to sustain staffing of the offices 24/7. The staff were doing their best to provide services with the workers they had. "So it is, like, cutting off your nose to spite your face. Which seems a bit counterintuitive if your goal is really to serve the American people,' said the official. Since the first cuts, there have been reports of some reinstatements at the National Weather Service. The official said they felt like the outcry over the impacts had been successful. "But, it's not just the weather forecasters on the ground. It's the technicians that keep all of the computer power running. It's the folks that operate the satellites, that are also part of NOAA. It's our ocean data buoy network. Our tide and gauge network, NOAA is a great example of how the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. And, you need all of those parts in order to effectively provide the data services and products that the American public has come to expect,' the official said. The official said that if today is meant to be a time when the American public gets more for less, that might not work at NOAA. 'Especially when the elements of Project 2025 have the weather service being privatized. That means you're going to pay for data you get for essential six cents a day now,' the official said. 'And, you're going to pay a whole lot more than six cents a day to get it from the private weather companies." The six cents is how much each American pays to fund NOAA's entire operation per day. "I think that there's a lot of oops-ing going on. And, that may be the way you do it in corporate America,' the official added, 'But, when you're breaking things that are public services, you can't necessarily easily repair or maybe ever repair the things that you have broken.'
