Latest news with #TomEssaye
CNBC
15-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
S&P 500 is up 18% in 25 trading days — what typically happens next
Stocks could be primed for large gains. The S & P 500 has soared more than 18% since hitting a closing low on April 8. That marks only the fifth time since 1970 that the broad market index has surged that much over just 25 trading days. The latest move higher comes as global trade tensions ease, with the U.S. temporarily pausing or cutting steep tariffs on imported goods. This week, China and the U.S. agreed to lower levies for 90 days as both countries work to hammer out a broader trade agreement. If history is any guide, stocks should now see sizable gains over the coming year. The S & P 500 on average has risen about 30% in the 250 trading days that followed such a strong 25-trading-day run. That includes two instances when the benchmark popped more than 40%. Week to date, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are up 4% and 6.8%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has also advanced nearly 2%. This week's rally puts the S & P 500 just 4.2% below its February all-time high. "What a switch, even for this market," wrote Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report. "A month ago (and even much later than that) the outlook for the economy was stagflation and the outlook for stocks was bordering on a 'lost decade' similar to what was witnessed in the 1970s and 2001-2009. But, oh how things have changed." But Essaye urged clients to stay cautious. "There is a lot of uncertainty to dismiss."
Mint
06-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
The silver rally has lagged gold's run. That could change soon.
Gold prices have been on a tear, leaving silver far behind. As the gold rally slows, it could be silver's chance to shine. It's been a great time for gold investors. A slew of factors, including inflation worries, demand from central banks, and uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's trade war have combined to send the metal up 23% so far this year to nearly $3,232 an ounce, for near-month contracts on Comex, according to Dow Jones Markets Data. Silver, also historically as a safe haven whose price tends to track that of gold, has rallied too, but nearly dramatically. Silver prices have gained about 10% this year to just under $2 an ounce. The difference has investors talking. Gold's big rally means its now trading roughly 100 times the price of silver, a premium it has achieved only a handful of times in the past, most recently in March 2020, the early days of the Covid pandemic. More typically gold trades in a range of 40 to 60 times the price of silver, according to Tom Essaye, author of the Sevens Report, a markets newsletter. That means silver has room to catch up. 'If history is a guide, the next phase of the precious-metals rally could belong to silver, not gold," he wrote last month. Market dynamics may be shifting in silver's favor. Gold was a big beneficiary of uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's trade war launched on April 2, dubbed 'Liberation Day." In the past few weeks President Donald Trump has walked back some proposals, while investors have had time to digest the news. Last week, the S&P 500, which recently completed a nine-day win streak, mostly recouped its post-April 2 losses. That's led investors to sell gold, which has declined about 2.3% in the past two weeks. Silver, meanwhile, has a wider range of industrial uses than gold. These could turn into price catalysts in coming months. There is a hitch to this thesis—many economists see growth slowing. During the first three months of 2025, the U.S. experienced its first quarter of negative GDP growth since 2022. But any potential weakness is already baked into silver's price, giving the metal plenty of potential room to rally, according to Ned Davis Research. 'On April 7, the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll for Silver dropped to its lowest level in nearly a decade," wrote NDR commodity strategist Matt Bauer last month. 'Extreme pessimism coincided with rising concerns over global growth following announcements of prohibitively high tariffs. Sentiment has since started to rebound though it has not yet cleared the neutral hurdle. A return to neutral would open the door to additional advances." Long-term demand for silver, a key ingredient in solar panels and other clean-energy gear, remains strong too, argues asset manager WisdomTree. That's thanks in large part to China's push toward renewable energy. Last month China said its wind and solar energy capacity exceeded its thermal capacity, which is mostly from coal, for the first time. 'Despite overall industrial weakness, silver-specific demand is expected to remain resilient," wrote Nitesh Shah, head of commodities and macroeconomic research at WisdomTree Europe, last month. 'This is largely due to strong photovoltaic demand, as China intensifies its energy transition efforts to stimulate domestic growth." Write to Ian Salisbury at
