The silver rally has lagged gold's run. That could change soon.
Gold prices have been on a tear, leaving silver far behind. As the gold rally slows, it could be silver's chance to shine.
It's been a great time for gold investors. A slew of factors, including inflation worries, demand from central banks, and uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's trade war have combined to send the metal up 23% so far this year to nearly $3,232 an ounce, for near-month contracts on Comex, according to Dow Jones Markets Data.
Silver, also historically as a safe haven whose price tends to track that of gold, has rallied too, but nearly dramatically. Silver prices have gained about 10% this year to just under $2 an ounce.
The difference has investors talking. Gold's big rally means its now trading roughly 100 times the price of silver, a premium it has achieved only a handful of times in the past, most recently in March 2020, the early days of the Covid pandemic.
More typically gold trades in a range of 40 to 60 times the price of silver, according to Tom Essaye, author of the Sevens Report, a markets newsletter. That means silver has room to catch up. 'If history is a guide, the next phase of the precious-metals rally could belong to silver, not gold," he wrote last month.
Market dynamics may be shifting in silver's favor. Gold was a big beneficiary of uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's trade war launched on April 2, dubbed 'Liberation Day." In the past few weeks President Donald Trump has walked back some proposals, while investors have had time to digest the news. Last week, the S&P 500, which recently completed a nine-day win streak, mostly recouped its post-April 2 losses. That's led investors to sell gold, which has declined about 2.3% in the past two weeks.
Silver, meanwhile, has a wider range of industrial uses than gold. These could turn into price catalysts in coming months. There is a hitch to this thesis—many economists see growth slowing. During the first three months of 2025, the U.S. experienced its first quarter of negative GDP growth since 2022.
But any potential weakness is already baked into silver's price, giving the metal plenty of potential room to rally, according to Ned Davis Research.
'On April 7, the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll for Silver dropped to its lowest level in nearly a decade," wrote NDR commodity strategist Matt Bauer last month. 'Extreme pessimism coincided with rising concerns over global growth following announcements of prohibitively high tariffs. Sentiment has since started to rebound though it has not yet cleared the neutral hurdle. A return to neutral would open the door to additional advances."
Long-term demand for silver, a key ingredient in solar panels and other clean-energy gear, remains strong too, argues asset manager WisdomTree. That's thanks in large part to China's push toward renewable energy. Last month China said its wind and solar energy capacity exceeded its thermal capacity, which is mostly from coal, for the first time.
'Despite overall industrial weakness, silver-specific demand is expected to remain resilient," wrote Nitesh Shah, head of commodities and macroeconomic research at WisdomTree Europe, last month. 'This is largely due to strong photovoltaic demand, as China intensifies its energy transition efforts to stimulate domestic growth."
Write to Ian Salisbury at
ian.salisbury@barrons.com
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