Latest news with #TomKloza
Observer
07-08-2025
- Business
- Observer
Low global diesel supplies support crude prices despite OPEC+ boost
NEW YORK: Low diesel stockpiles worldwide are countering the downward pressure on crude oil prices from rising OPEC+ supply and setting the stage for a third consecutive year of above-normal refining profits. Diesel, the top component of global fuel demand, has been the lone bright spot in an otherwise lackluster oil market this year as refinery closures and a shortage of crude with higher diesel yields have kept inventories below historical norms, analysts said. Meanwhile, demand for the industrial and transportation fuel has been unexpectedly strong because of resilient manufacturing activity and cooling demand due to heatwaves in parts of the world. Tight stocks of diesel have also helped support global oil prices, allowing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to unwind their largest tranche of output cuts months ahead of target, and could justify further supply hikes under discussion. Global benchmark Brent crude futures have rebounded 15% to around $68 a barrel from this year's lows, hit in May when OPEC+ first began unwinding supply cuts. "Tight diesel inventories are providing a very strong floor to oil markets in the mid-$60 per barrel range in the short term," Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy for J.P. Morgan, told Reuters. US distillate fuel inventories stood at 113 million barrels by August 1, 12% below the five-year average, according to government data. At Europe's Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp trading hub, independently-held diesel stockpiles slipped under 13 million barrels for the first time since December 2023. The tight market has been something of a surprise after analysts and fuel producers earlier this year anticipated that the opening of new refineries around the world would cause a supply glut. In the latest quarters, however, top global refiners have reported stronger-than-expected profits due to resilient margins. "If I were a trader, I would be very comfortable going long diesel in the months ahead," said Tom Kloza, an analyst for consultancy firm Turner, Mason & Co. Tight stockpiles have pushed diesel refining margins higher in recent months. In the US, ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) futures briefly traded at a $40 premium over US crude futures.— Reuters
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
July 4: Gas prices to hit their lowest level since 2021
Gasoline prices are hovering at their lowest level since 2021 heading into the July Fourth holiday. On Wednesday, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $3.17 per gallon, according to AAA data. This marks a $0.33 drop compared to the same day last year. Cheaper gas is a welcome relief for the more than 61 million people expected to hit the road this weekend. "Americans will spend ~$500 million less on gasoline this July 4 weekend (Thu-Sun) vs last year," GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan wrote on X. The drop in gas prices has been largely driven by lower prices for oil (CL=F, BZ=F) following President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. That eased concerns about a potential supply shock. Read more: Is the stock market open on July Fourth? Despite relief at the pump, the next one or two months may be bumpy, according to Turner, Mason & Co. chief market analyst Tom Kloza. "We may wobble a bit higher or lower in July and August," he said. "Demand is decent and there are enough issues with US refining to keep the market supported in these peak summer months." Kloza noted a wide disparity in prices across the country. Drivers in the Southeast and Great Lakes regions may find gas for under $2.50 per gallon, while California continues to post the highest prices nationwide. The Golden State's elevated prices are due to a combination of special fuel blend requirements, higher taxes and fees aimed at curbing emissions, and an expected shutdown of two major refineries, which could send prices even higher. Still, at $4.57 per gallon, prices in California have eased about $0.22 compared to this time last year. Read more: What are the best credit cards for gas? Energy analysts see prices falling below $3 per gallon later this year as the driving season winds down and refineries switch to less expensive winter blends. However, weather remains a wild card — as does the Middle East. Hurricane season is just beginning, and any major storms in the Gulf of Mexico could send prices climbing again. "As long as tensions in the Middle East remain contained and the U.S. avoids a major hurricane, we could see the national average fall below $3 per gallon later this summer," GasBuddy's De Haan said. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Yahoo
01-07-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
July 4: Gas prices to hit their lowest level since 2021
Gasoline prices are on track to hit their lowest level since 2021 heading into the July Fourth holiday. On Tuesday, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $3.18 per gallon, according to AAA data. This marks a $0.31 drop compared to the same day last year. Cheaper gas is a welcome relief for the more than 61 million people expected to hit the road this weekend. "Americans will spend ~$500 million less on gasoline this July 4 weekend (Thu-Sun) vs last year," GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan wrote on X. The drop in gas prices has been largely driven by lower prices for oil (CL=F, BZ=F) following President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. That eased concerns about a potential supply shock. Read more: Is the stock market open on July Fourth? Despite relief at the pump, the next one or two months may be bumpy, according to Turner, Mason & Co. chief market analyst Tom Kloza. "We may wobble a bit higher or lower in July and August," he said. "Demand is decent and there are enough issues with US refining to keep the market supported in these peak summer months." Kloza noted a wide disparity in prices across the country. Drivers in the Southeast and Great Lakes regions may find gas for under $2.50 per gallon, while California continues to post the highest prices nationwide. The Golden State's elevated prices are due to a combination of special fuel blend requirements, higher taxes and fees aimed at curbing emissions, and an expected shutdown of two major refineries, which could send prices even higher. Still, at $4.58 per gallon, prices in California have eased about $0.21 compared to this time last year. Read more: What are the best credit cards for gas? Energy analysts see prices falling below $3 per gallon later this year as the driving season winds down and refineries switch to less expensive winter blends. However, weather remains a wild card — as does the Middle East. Hurricane season is just beginning, and any major storms in the Gulf of Mexico could send prices climbing again. "As long as tensions in the Middle East remain contained and the U.S. avoids a major hurricane, we could see the national average fall below $3 per gallon later this summer," GasBuddy's De Haan said. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
25-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why gasoline prices aren't tumbling along with sinking oil
Oil futures tumbled again Tuesday on hopes that the shaky ceasefire between Israel and Iran would reduce if not eliminate the risk any significant disruption to global energy markets. Gasoline futures fell, too. So when will you notice prices falling at the pump? It may be a while. Because gas prices didn't shoot significantly higher over the past two weeks after Israel and Iran began their recent hostilities, you probably won't notice any big savings anytime soon. The national average gasoline price stood at $3.12 on June 10 according to AAA, just before oil and gasoline prices started their climb on rising concerns about a conflict in the days before the fighting started between Israel and Iran. The so-called New York harbor prices for gasoline futures closed at a wholesale price of only $2.09. A barrel of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil closed at $66.60 that day. Both wholesale gasoline and oil futures stared rising steadily June 11 and continued to climb through the early hours of trading this past Sunday night, after the US bombing of nuclear sites in Iran raised fears of a broader conflict. Brent Crude futures briefly topped $80 a barrel late Sunday. But throughout the day Monday as those fears of a wider conflict retreated and hopes for a cease fire increased, the price of oil started falling sharply. Oil Monday closed down 7% at $70.65 a barrel, while a so-called New York harbor prices for gasoline futures fell about 5% to a wholesale price of $2.22 a gallon. And the wholesale prices fell another 5% in midday trading Tuesday to a $2.09 price, essentially matching the price before the recent run-up. The AAA average retail price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood Monday at $3.22, based on a survey of gas stations conducted on Sunday, and it remains there in Tuesday's reading. But that means there was only a 3% rise in pump prices from June 10 to today's level, so there's not a lot of room for prices to fall to go back to pre-conflict levels. Tom Kloza, an independent oil and gasoline price expert, said he could see prices starting to decline a little bit in the coming days as stations take deliveries of cheaper wholesale gas. The seasonal pick-up in summer driving will stop prices from falling significantly in the coming weeks, he believes. But he does think that a glut of oil on global markets and strong US refining capacity could send prices down sharply through the rest of this year once the peak July demand wanes. 'It looks like we're well supplied, and that's bearish for prices,' he said. The strong supply has little to do with President Donald Trump's 'drill, baby, drill' call to increase production. Overall US production is roughly unchanged from this time last year and it's not likely to increase significantly at the current prices, Kloza said, especially with 50% tariffs on imported steel raising the cost of the pipes used in oil exploration. The price of oil futures did not spike as high as during some past global incidents, such as Russia's attack on Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions on Russia by western nations that followed. In that case Brent prices soared 44% from early January 2022 through early March of that year. But Kloza said there isn't as much speculative money in oil futures markets as there used to driving up prices in reaction to external events. 'That money is much more likely to go into crypto and to go into big tech today,' he said. 'There's only so much money to go around.' Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Time of India
25-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Israel-Iran conflict: No huge oil price spike - how the market outmanoeuvred worst-case scenarios
This is an AI-generated image, used for representational purposes only. Oil markets swiftly reversed initial panic after Israel's June 13 strike on Iran, with Brent crude falling back below $70 per barrel as traders sensed the conflict would not escalate further. Despite a brief $10 spike, the muted response from Tehran, including a symbolic missile attack that caused no damage, signalled de-escalation, calming fears of supply disruptions and showing how the global oil system proved more resilient than expected, as per ET. Before the Israeli strikes, Brent was already trading at around $69. Though US involvement over the weekend rattled markets, Iran's symbolic missile attack on a US base in Qatar, which caused no damage, calmed fears. Traders viewed the move as largely domestic posturing, suggesting Iran wanted to signal resolve without provoking a wider conflict. 'This rivals some of the historic selloffs,' said Tom Kloza, chief market strategist at Turner Mason & Co, after Brent tumbled on Monday. He added, 'When the response comes and it is muted, oil drops,' as quoted by the news agency AP. The ceasefire announced Tuesday further eased concerns of supply disruption. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like เทรด CFDs ด้วยเทคโนโลยีเทรดสุดล้ำ และ รวดเร็วกว่า IC Markets สมัคร Undo The threat of Iran shutting the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supply passes, loomed large, but analysts and US officials saw that scenario as unlikely. US Vice President JD Vance called the idea 'suicidal,' reported AP. Tehran itself exports 1.5 million barrels a day through the strait, and closing it would have harmed its already fragile economy. According to ET, traders pointed to a recurring pattern in Iran's military actions, strikes designed to appease domestic audiences rather than inflict serious damage. The broader context has also shifted as today's oil market is better insulated from shocks, with the US now producing about 13 million barrels a day, outpacing both Saudi Arabia and Russia. Meanwhile, OPEC+ production hikes since May have helped keep markets well-supplied. 'The price of oil today, closer to $68 per barrel compared to $84 a year ago, reflects this cushion'. Strategic reserves, particularly in the US, offer additional buffers. Iran's cautious behaviour stems from multiple pressures. Israeli strikes have weakened its military capability, and years of US sanctions have left its economy reliant on discounted oil sales to China. A prolonged war would jeopardise what little economic leverage remains. Regional dynamics have also shifted. With Hamas and Hezbollah weakened and Russia distracted in Ukraine, Iran's traditional support base has eroded. Even China, though critical of Western aggression, has been reluctant to deepen its commitment to Tehran. Oil markets remain alert, but many believe Tehran is unlikely to provoke a larger crisis. 'History suggests Iran won't disrupt its own oil flow,' said Houston-based analyst Andy Lipow. However, he added, 'countries, like people, don't always act in their economic interests,' reported AP. For now, the market is betting that cooler heads will prevail, at least until the next flare-up. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
