Latest news with #TomOrlik
Bloomberg
2 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Trump's High Interest Rate Obstacle
Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg's Jamie Rush, Stephanie Flanders and Tom Orlik are out with a new book: 'The Price of Money: A Guide to the Past, Present and Future of the Natural Rate of Interest,' a collection of essays by the Bloomberg Economics team. Orlik joins Balance of Power to discuss the hurdles US President Donald Trump faces getting lower interest rates. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
New Normal for The 10 Year will be Around 4.5% Says Tom Orlik
Bloomberg's Jamie Rush, Stephanie Flanders and Tom Orlik have a new book on the future of interest rates publishing August 8th. It's called 'The Price of Money: A Guide to the Past, Present and Future of the Natural Rate of Interest', and it's a collection of essays by the Bloomberg Economics team. Tom Orlik joins to break down the future for the Fed as well as what the future for the 10 year treasury could be going forward. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg
4 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
"The Price of Money" with Bloomberg's Tom Orlik
Bloomberg's Jamie Rush, Stephanie Flanders and Tom Orlik have a new book on the future of interest rates publishing August 8th. It's called 'The Price of Money: A Guide to the Past, Present and Future of the Natural Rate of Interest', and it's a collection of essays by the Bloomberg Economics team. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg
04-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Lots More on a Massive, Historical, Stagflationary Shock
Listen to Odd Lots on Apple Podcasts Listen to Odd Lots on Spotify Subscribe to the newsletter On Wednesday, President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs against almost every country in the world. The size and scope was far beyond what anyone was anticipating, causing markets to subsequently plunge. But what's next? Could it work out for the US? Will we see a spike in inflation? Will the global trading system continue to operate? On this episode, we speak with Tom Orlik, the chief economist for Bloomberg Economics, on the historical nature of this stagflationary shock, and what happens to the US and global economies if these numbers remain in place.
Yahoo
30-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US Economy Outstripped China in 2024 for Third Year in a Row
(Bloomberg) -- The US tightened its grip on the title of world's biggest economy in 2024 as an irrepressible American consumer helped it pull away from China for a third straight year — at least by one measure. Manhattan's Morning Commute Time Drops With New Congestion Toll Trump's Federal Funding Pause Threatens State Financials Housing Aid Uncertain After Trump's Spending Freeze Memo US Students' Reading Scores Drop to Worst in More Than 20 Years Trump Paves the Way to Deputize Local Police on Immigration US gross domestic product increased 5.3% last year before adjusting for inflation, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data released Thursday. In comparison, China's nominal GDP growth clocked in at 4.2%, the country's National Bureau of Statistics reported two weeks ago. The two nations' contrasting challenges with prices in recent years help explain the widening gap between their GDP levels. The US figures are flattered by the elevated inflation rates that spurred historically aggressive Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening in 2022 and 2023. By contrast, China has been battling deflation — its so-called GDP deflator has indicated falling prices since mid-2023. Relative sizes of economies can be measured in various ways. When adjusted for inflation, China continued to expand at a faster pace, with real GDP rising 5% — compared with 2.8% for the US. But nominal figures are often viewed as more relevant for things like corporate and government revenues and trade flows. Typically, lesser-developed nations like China sustain faster economic growth rates as they catch up with their advanced rivals. China's GDP per capita was $12,614 in 2023, the latest year for which the World Bank has comparative data. In the US, it was $82,769 — showcasing the enormous catch-up potential for the world's No. 2. But Chinese policymakers have been struggling to contain a massive property-market slump, alongside depressed consumer confidence. 'China's economy is in the midst of a painful but necessary transition from cement to silicon as the main driver of growth,' said Tom Orlik, the chief economist at Bloomberg Economics and a longtime China watcher. 'The US continues to outperform, and in nominal terms its growth rate has been juiced by above-target inflation. The race for the world's top GDP spot is still on. For now, the US is extending its lead.' The US also demonstrated its continuing exceptionalism against its developed-world counterparts last year. Thursday's GDP release came hours after both France and Germany reported quarterly contractions in their economies during the final three months of 2024. Consumer spending was the biggest driver of US growth last year, fueled by wage increases and employment gains. American payrolls climbed by more than 2.2 million last year, while average hourly earnings advanced 1% in December from a year earlier after adjusting for inflation. Trade Disparity That US consumption has also pulled in an increasing volume of imports, widening the politically sensitive trade deficit. The merchandise trade deficit reached nearly $1.1 trillion for January through November last year, and preliminary figures for December released Wednesday showed an unprecedented monthly deficit of $122 billion. China has been among the beneficiaries, with US imports from its geopolitical rival up 2.2% for January through November. China's own data showed the world's biggest manufacturing nation accumulated a record trade surplus of some $992 billion in 2024. While President Xi Jinping has repeatedly vowed to ramp up his nation's imports, subdued domestic demand has made that a challenging task. How 2025 will shape up is a major question for economists and global policymakers alike, with newly installed President Donald Trump threatening to impose tariff hikes on US trading partners. Indy Pass, the Anti-Vail Seasonal Ski Ticket, Is Gaining Fans The Internet Almost Killed Barnes & Noble, Then Saved It What America's Tech Billionaires Really Bought When They Backed Donald Trump Musk Pitches New Narrative as Tesla Sales Fall Forget Factories, Small US Towns Want Buc-ee's Gas Stations ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
