Latest news with #TomSimons
Yahoo
17-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Spending on groceries vs restaurants: What the data shows
The latest retail sales report showed that consumers are still going out to eat. That's a good sign about the health of the US consumer, as Market Domination Anchor Julie Hyman explains in the video above. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here. Well, investors and economists watch these retail sales numbers closely, of course, because they provide a barometer, a window into consumer spending. But there's something more specific that Tom Simons, the chief US economist over at Jeffries watches, and that's the relationship between grocery store shopping, or food at home, as many economists call it, and buying in restaurants. And the trend that we have seen since the pandemic, in particular, is that grocery store sales have sort of flattened out, and we can continue to see restaurants trend higher. He said, if consumers were worried, right, they would be trading down, they would be trying to save money by eating more at home and spending more at grocery stores, and not going out as much. And even though last month we saw both of those numbers tick down very slightly, the longer term relationship, he says, does remain intact and suggests that, when coupled with things like OpenTable reservation data, shows that consumers are still willing to spend. On the flip side, we also talked to Chris Hodge. He's the chief US economist over at Nat Texas CIB, CIB Americas. And he said, yes, we have seen that, but he noted that there has been something of a flattening in overall discretionary categories. So, he looks at restaurants, but he also couples it with what he considers to also be discretionary, things like sporting goods, for example. And there he sees a little bit more of a flattening. So, as always, there's a lot of data to look at and a lot of ways to interpret it. At least for Tom Simons of Jeffries, this chart gives him some reason for optimism, Josh. All right. Thank you, Julie. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
05-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US economy shows signs of 'paralysis' as new data reveals hiring slowdown, activity contraction in May
For months, US economic data has shown resilience, with layoffs remaining low and business activity staying steady despite fears over policy uncertainty. But the tide may be shifting. Multiple data points this week have shown signs of slowing as a wide swath of tariffs has been in effect. On Thursday, weekly filings for unemployment benefits hit their highest level since October 2024, adding to a slew of data showing a cooling economy leading into the Friday morning release of the May jobs report. Earlier in the week, the Institute for Supply Management's Services PMI registered a reading of 49.9 in May, below the 51.6 seen in April. Readings above 50 for this index indicate an expansion in activity, while readings below 50 indicate contraction. May's data marked just the fourth time the services sector has fallen into contraction in the past five years. Jefferies US economist Tom Simons wrote in a note to clients that the ISM services data likely reflects "more signs of a pause in activity rather than a steep contraction." "A broad pause is not a good thing, and the uncertainty that precipitated this pause has not shown any signs of lifting," Simons wrote. And it's not just one sector pressing pause as tariffs take hold. On Monday, the ISM's manufacturing PMI also showed contraction in May as imports hit their lowest level since 2009, with a wide swath of President Trump's tariffs taking hold. Economists have reasoned that it's not just the tariffs themselves causing businesses to slow activity. It's the uncertainty of where policy — and eventually the broader economy — is headed in 2025. That includes the labor market: In May, the private sector added 37,000 jobs, the lowest monthly total in more than two years, per ADP data released Wednesday. "When it comes to hiring, there's a hesitancy because of a wide level of uncertainty," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told Yahoo Finance during a call with reporters. "We're in a situation now where businesses are facing a level of paralysis," RBC Capital Markets economist Carrie Freestone told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday. "Nobody is wanting to ramp up hiring when they don't know what's going to happen down the line." The slowdown in hiring has likely led to an increasing number of workers staying unemployed for longer. Data from the Department of Labor released Thursday morning showed 1.904 million workers filed for continuing unemployment benefits in the week ending May 24. The data is hovering near its highest level since November 2021. ADP's Richardson said the challenge facing corporates is akin to driving through fog. Usually, the driver keeps moving forward but drives slower and more carefully. Whether the fog gets worse or clears in time for the labor market rebound remains key to the economic story as the summer approaches and investors receive more data showing how tariffs are impacting the outlook. "I do think that once the uncertainty clears a bit, you'll see more activity in the labor market," Richardson said. But other economists have pointed out that the data shows a clear sign that the labor market is on thin ice. "We're getting close to some soft employment numbers," Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note following Thursday's unemployment benefits release. "The broader story here is that with the hiring rate still quite low, it would not take much in the way of layoffs to generate some weak payroll prints." Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
05-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US economy shows signs of 'paralysis' as new data reveals hiring slowdown, activity contraction in May
For months US economic data has shown resilience, with layoffs remaining low and business activity staying steady despite fears over policy uncertainty. But the tide may be shifting. Multiple data points this week have shown signs of slowing as a wide swath of tariffs have been in effect. On Thursday, weekly filings for unemployment benefits hit their highest level since October 2024, adding to a slew of data that's showed cooling in the economy leading into the release of the May jobs report on Friday morning. Earlier in the week, the Institute for Supply Management's Services PMI registered a reading of 49.9 in May, below the 51.6 seen in April. Readings above 50 for this index indicate an expansion in activity, while readings below 50 indicate contraction. May's data marked just the fourth time the services sector has fallen into contraction in the past five years. Jefferies US economist Tom Simons wrote in a note to clients the ISM services data likely reflect "more signs of a pause in activity rather than a steep contraction." "A broad pause is not a good thing, and the uncertainty that precipitated this pause has not shown any signs of lifting," Simons wrote. And it's not just one sector pressing pause as tariffs take hold either. On Monday the ISM's manufacturing PMI also showed contraction in May as imports hit their lowest level since 2009, with a wide swath of President Trump's tariffs taking hold. Economists have reasoned that it's not just the tariffs themselves causing businesses to slow activity. It's the uncertainty of where policy —and eventually the broader economy — is headed in 2025. That includes the labor market: In May, the private sector added 37,000 jobs, the lowest monthly total in more than two years, per ADP data released Wednesday. "When it comes to hiring, there's a hesitancy because of a wide level of uncertainty," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told Yahoo Finance during a call with reporters. "We're in a situation now where businesses are facing a level of paralysis," RBC Capital Markets economist Carrie Freestone told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday. "Nobody is wanting to ramp up hiring when they don't know what's going to happen down the line." The slowdown in hiring has likely led to an increasing number of workers staying unemployed for longer. Data from the Department of Labor released Thursday morning showed 1.904 million workers filed for continuing unemployment benefits in the week ending May 24. The data is hovering near its highest level since November 2021. ADP's Richardson said the challenge facing corporates is akin to driving through fog. Usually the driver keeps moving forward but drives slower and more carefully. Whether the fog gets worse, or clears in time for the labor market rebound remains key to the economic story as the summer approaches and investors receive more data showing how tariffs are impacting the outlook. "I do think that once the uncertainty clears a bit, you'll see more activity in the labor market," Richardson said. But other economists have pointed out that the data shows a clear sign that the labor market is on thin ice. "We're getting close to some soft employment numbers," Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note following Thursday's unemployment benefits release. "The broader story here is that with the hiring rate still quite low, it would not take much in the way of layoffs to generate some weak payroll prints." Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
Yahoo
05-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The US economy just got a reality check
For months US economic data has shown resilience, with layoffs remaining low and business activity staying steady despite fears over policy uncertainty. But the tide may be shifting. Multiple data points this week have shown signs of slowing as a wide swath of tariffs have been in effect. On Thursday, weekly filings for unemployment benefits hit their highest level since October 2024, adding to a slew of data that's showed cooling in the economy leading into the release of the May jobs report on Friday morning. Earlier in the week, the Institute for Supply Management's Services PMI registered a reading of 49.9 in May, below the 51.6 seen in April. Readings above 50 for this index indicate an expansion in activity, while readings below 50 indicate contraction. May's data marked just the fourth time the services sector has fallen into contraction in the past five years. Jefferies US economist Tom Simons wrote in a note to clients the ISM services data likely reflect "more signs of a pause in activity rather than a steep contraction." "A broad pause is not a good thing, and the uncertainty that precipitated this pause has not shown any signs of lifting," Simons wrote. And it's not just one sector pressing pause as tariffs take hold either. On Monday the ISM's manufacturing PMI also showed contraction in May as imports hit their lowest level since 2009, with a wide swath of President Trump's tariffs taking hold. Economists have reasoned that it's not just the tariffs themselves causing businesses to slow activity. It's the uncertainty of where policy —and eventually the broader economy — is headed in 2025. That includes the labor market: In May, the private sector added 37,000 jobs, the lowest monthly total in more than two years, per ADP data released Wednesday. "When it comes to hiring, there's a hesitancy because of a wide level of uncertainty," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told Yahoo Finance during a call with reporters. "We're in a situation now where businesses are facing a level of paralysis," RBC Capital Markets economist Carrie Freestone told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday. "Nobody is wanting to ramp up hiring when they don't know what's going to happen down the line." The slowdown in hiring has likely led to an increasing number of workers staying unemployed for longer. Data from the Department of Labor released Thursday morning showed 1.904 million workers filed for continuing unemployment benefits in the week ending May 24. The data is hovering near its highest level since November 2021. ADP's Richardson said the challenge facing corporates is akin to driving through fog. Usually the driver keeps moving forward but drives slower and more carefully. Whether the fog gets worse, or clears in time for the labor market rebound remains key to the economic story as the summer approaches and investors receive more data showing how tariffs are impacting the outlook. "I do think that once the uncertainty clears a bit, you'll see more activity in the labor market," Richardson said. But other economists have pointed out that the data shows a clear sign that the labor market is on thin ice. "We're getting close to some soft employment numbers," Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note following Thursday's unemployment benefits release. "The broader story here is that with the hiring rate still quite low, it would not take much in the way of layoffs to generate some weak payroll prints." Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
The Star
04-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
U.S. stocks close mixed on weak hiring data in private sector
NEW YORK, June 4 (Xinhua) -- U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday as investors digested weaker-than-expected private-sector hiring data and remained cautious amid fresh U.S.-China trade tensions, following the implementation of a steep steel and aluminum tariff hike. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 91.90 points, or 0.22 percent, ending the session at 42,427.74, while the S&P 500 inched up 0.44 points, or 0.01 percent, to 5,970.81. The Nasdaq Composite gained 61.53 points, or 0.32 percent, to close at 19,460.49. Sector performance was split, with six of the S&P 500's 11 major groups finishing higher. Communication services and materials led the way, rising 1.36 percent and 0.35 percent, respectively. On the downside, energy and utilities were the weakest performers, falling 1.89 percent and 1.70 percent. Investor sentiment was dampened by the ADP National Employment Report, which showed private-sector hiring slowed significantly in May. Only 37,000 jobs were added, the weakest figure in over two years and far short of analyst expectation of 110,000 ones. Further economic data reflected softening conditions. The Institute for Supply Management's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.9 in May, slipping into contraction territory for just the fourth time in five years. The reading came in below April's 51.6 and missed economist forecasts for an increase to 52, suggesting service sector growth is losing steam. Jefferies economist Tom Simons wrote in a note to clients that the data likely reflect "more signs of a pause in activity rather than a steep contraction." "A broad pause is not a good thing, and the uncertainty that precipitated this pause has not shown any signs of lifting," he said. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell on social media again, calling for immediate rate cuts. Adding to market jitters, Trump's order to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50 percent took effect Wednesday, with only the United Kingdom exempted. The deadline also arrived for U.S. trading partners to submit "best offers" to avoid a broader wave of retaliatory tariffs slated for July. Barclays' Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Venu Krishna said that recent market movement reflects a "broad realization" that the extreme tariff rhetoric may not fully materialize, though it continues to create uncertainty for investors. "The bottom line is that while uncertainty remains high around the eventual tariff outcome, the rate of change on policy headwinds has become much less onerous." Wilson said. "This has reduced recession risk and is giving corporates and consumers more confidence in the forward looking outlook." The S&P 500 index will peak in the second quarter and then correct to the range of 5,250 points to 5,500 points in the second half of 2025, according to a presentation by Stifel on Tuesday. Major technology companies showed mixed performance on Wednesday. Meta Platforms advanced 3.16 percent, while chipmaker Broadcom, set to release earnings on Thursday, gained 1.65 percent. Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet posted modest increases. In contrast, electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla dropped 3.55 percent, and Apple edged down slightly.
