Latest news with #TonyDunn
Yahoo
31-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
What we know about 300ft asteroid that has a chance of crashing into Earth
A freshly spotted asteroid that is up to 300ft wide detected by an automated telescope in December has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, scientists have said. The asteroid has been designated 2024 YR4 and is believed to have a 1-in-83 chance of striking Earth. Currently 27 million miles from Earth, it's too early to know where it could strike but it has been placed top of impact priority lists and is being scanned by scientists around the world Such an impact could cause devastating damage, either in the form of an 'airburst' explosion or an explosion on impact. The asteroid was spotted on 27 December by NASA's Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). ATLAS is a warning system for asteroid impacts consisting of four telescopes. It is designed to offer a minimum of 'several weeks' of warning before the impact of a 300ft asteroid like 2024 YR4. As telescope technology has improved, the number of asteroids spotted has increased, although the number of space rocks remains the same. Recently-discovered #asteroid 2024 YR4 may make a very close approach to Earth in 8 years. It is thought to be 40-100 meters wide. Uncertainty is still high and more and more observations are needed confirm this. — Tony Dunn (@tony873004) January 28, 2025 The European Space Agency estimates that the asteroid is between 40m (131ft) and 100m (328ft). That would potentially make the space rock's width similar to the height of Big Ben in London, which is 316ft tall. The time of closest approach to Earth (when it could potentially impact) is the 22 December, 2032. According to NASA's Center of Near Earth Object studies, it should pass within 66,000 miles of our planet on that day. The range of uncertainties in the calculation means an impact is possible. As of this week, the asteroid has a 1.2% chance of hitting Earth, according to the European Space Agency. In recent history, the 'odds' of asteroids hitting Earth have tended to go down the more that astronomers observe an asteroid. The asteroid has been ranked as 'level 3' on the Torino Impact Hazard scale - but NASA says this is likely to drop. NASA describes level 3 asteroids as a "close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localised destruction." It adds: "Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away." NASA's Atlas says that an 100m asteroid has 10 times the destructive force of the 2021 Tonga volcanic eruption, which caused a large explosion and tsunamis in several countries. The damage caused by such an explosion would vary depending on where the asteroid hit. "An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region," the European Space Agency has said. NASA says that the impact could kill up to a million people, "averaged over all possible impact locations". NASA says, 'These deaths could result from a direct hit or by tsunami (tidal wave) in the event of an ocean strike.' An asteroid 'blew up' over the Russian town of Chelyabinsk in 2013. It is thought to have been around 60 feet across. During the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, 1,500 people were injured and 7,300 buildings damaged by the intense overpressure generated by the shockwave at Earth's surface. A 5-meter rock is estimated to target Earth once a year, and a 50-meter rock once every thousand years, according to NASA. Smaller rocks, like the asteroid that exploded over Chelyabinsk, will hit our planet every 10 to 100 years.
Yahoo
30-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
An asteroid is heading for Earth - but you'll have to wait a while to find out if we're gonna get hit
A massive asteroid could slam into Earth in the next seven years. Known as Asteroid 2024 YR4, the nearly 200-foot large space rock could hit just before Christmas of 2032. Discovered last Christmas by Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey, the asteroid is currently the only Near-Earth Object that has been placed at a level three on Torino impact hazard scale, giving it the highest probability of impact of any other large objects being tracked by NASA and other space agencies. The scale categorizes potential Earth impact events. This marks 'one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever,' David Rankin, from the Catalina Sky Survey, wrote on BlueSky. Although, more observation is needed to understand how close 2024 YR4 could come to Earth. 'Recently-discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 may make a very close approach to Earth in eight years,' said Tony Dunn, an amateur astronomer who shared a visualization of the asteroid on X (formerly Twitter). 'It is thought to be 40-100 meters wide. Uncertainty is still high and more observations are needed to confirm this.' Dunn's animation of the asteroid shows it skimming Earth at an altitude of 301 miles, with its trajectory altered by the planet's gravitational pull. This is less than half the distance of most low-Earth orbit satellites, suggesting that it could even be pulled into Earth's atmosphere at that altitude. The 'risk corridor' for impact stretches from South America, across central Africa, and up towards India and South-East Asia. But, this could shift as new data emerges. Just how devastating the impact would potentially be depends not only on the size of the asteroid, but also its composition. By comparison, the asteroid that ended the age of the dinosaur is estimated to be between six and nine miles wide. However, astronomers say the odds of a collision are around 1-in-83. 'We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss," Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, told The Associated Press. 'But it deserves attention.' 2024 YR4 is currently hurdling through space some 27 million miles from Earth, traveling at a velocity of 13.5 km/s, according to NASA's Eyes on Asteroid.
Yahoo
30-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
An asteroid is heading for Earth - but you'll have to wait a while to find out if we're gonna get hit
A massive asteroid could slam into Earth in the next seven years. Known as Asteroid 2024 YR4, the nearly 200-foot large space rock could hit just before Christmas of 2032. Discovered last Christmas by Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey, the asteroid is currently the only Near-Earth Object that has been placed at a level three on Torino impact hazard scale, giving it the highest probability of impact of any other large objects being tracked by NASA and other space agencies. The scale categorizes potential Earth impact events. This marks 'one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever,' David Rankin, from the Catalina Sky Survey, wrote on BlueSky. Although, more observation is needed to understand how close 2024 YR4 could come to Earth. 'Recently-discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 may make a very close approach to Earth in eight years,' said Tony Dunn, an amateur astronomer who shared a visualization of the asteroid on X (formerly Twitter). 'It is thought to be 40-100 meters wide. Uncertainty is still high and more observations are needed to confirm this.' Dunn's animation of the asteroid shows it skimming Earth at an altitude of 301 miles, with its trajectory altered by the planet's gravitational pull. This is less than half the distance of most low-Earth orbit satellites, suggesting that it could even be pulled into Earth's atmosphere at that altitude. The 'risk corridor' for impact stretches from South America, across central Africa, and up towards India and South-East Asia. But, this could shift as new data emerges. Just how devastating the impact would potentially be depends not only on the size of the asteroid, but also its composition. By comparison, the asteroid that ended the age of the dinosaur is estimated to be between six and nine miles wide. However, astronomers say the odds of a collision are around 1-in-83. 'We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss," Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, told The Associated Press. 'But it deserves attention.' 2024 YR4 is currently hurdling through space some 27 million miles from Earth, traveling at a velocity of 13.5 km/s, according to NASA's Eyes on Asteroid.
Yahoo
29-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Newfound 'city-killer' asteroid has chance of hitting Earth in 2032
Astronomers are closely watching a newly discovered asteroid, as it now has one of the highest impact risks of any significantly sized space rock we've found so far. On December 27, 2024, the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile, spotted a previously undiscovered asteroid. Now named 2024 YR4, this roughly 60-metre wide space rock immediately began setting off alarms, due to what could be an extremely close encounter in late 2032. According to NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), when 2024 YR4 passed by on Dec. 25, 2024, its closest approach was around 828,700 km from Earth, or a little over twice the distance to the Moon. However, on Dec. 22, 2032, it will come much closer. Based on the observations so far, it could be a very narrow miss, as the asteroid skims the top of the atmosphere. Recently-discovered #asteroid 2024 YR4 may make a very close approach to Earth in 8 years. It is thought to be 40-100 meters wide. Uncertainty is still high and more and more observations are needed confirm this. — Tony Dunn (@tony873004) January 28, 2025 DON'T MISS: However, with only a little over 30 days of observations, the uncertainties in this asteroid's orbit are still fairly large, especially when looking ahead nearly eight years into the future. On December 22, 3032, asteroid 2024 YR4 could pass by safely, coming no closer to us than 1.7 million kilometres, or over 4 times the distance to the Moon. On the other hand, there is a small, but non-zero chance that it could strike the planet instead! As of January 29, NASA's calculations give this space rock a 1.3 per cent chance of impact. That's roughly a 1 in 77 chance, which is higher than any other near-future impact probability currently listed in the agency's Sentry Risk Table. NASA's Sentry Risk Table as of January 29, 2025, with asteroid 2024 YR4 at the top (highlighted in yellow), with the highest impact risk, and only risk above zero on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. (NASA CNEOS) MORE SPACE NEWS: Also, given the size of this asteroid, and the potential damage it could cause in an impact, it is the only object on that risk table that currently has a Torino scale rank above zero. With an estimated diameter of between 40-100 metres, and travelling at a speed of 13.5 kilometres per second, 2024 YR4 could cause significant local damage if it were to hit Earth. These types of asteroids are often called 'city killers'. The Chelyabinsk impact, on February 15, 2013, released the equivalent energy of about 440,000 tonnes of TNT. The air-burst explosion from that asteroid shattered windows across the area, caused minor damage to some buildings, and resulted in around 1,500 injuries. An impact by 2024 YR4 would be around 15-20 times more powerful. As such, it is currently rated as a 3 on the Torino scale. The ten rankings of the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. Note that this scale not only takes into account the chance of impact, but also the potential consequences of such an impact. Thus, a tiny, 1-metre asteroid with a 100 per cent chance of impact could still rank as zero (0) on the Torino scale because it would cause no damage during the impact event. (NASA CNEOS) It should be noted that a 1.3 per cent chance of impact is also a 98.7 per cent chance of a miss. Thus, it is far more likely that 2024 YR4 will miss us than hit us. So, there is nothing to worry about at this time. Plus, other asteroids have also ranked reasonably high on the Torino scale, but when more observations came in, astronomers were able to completely rule out any threat from them. 99942 Apophis is an excellent example of this. After its discovery in 2004, Apophis made it all the way up to rank 4 on the Torino scale. As astronomers carefully watched it, though, and gathered more information on its exact path around the Sun, they were able to refine their calculations of its orbit and completely rule it out as a threat. The asteroid was even removed from NASA's Sentry Risk Table as of February 21, 2021. In all likelihood, the same thing will happen with 2024 YR4. It may have a high risk now, but further observations will give us a better idea of what its orbit looks like, and we will probably see that risk go down, if not entirely disappear. Click here to view the video
The Independent
29-01-2025
- Science
- The Independent
Asteroid the size of a 20-story building headed for Earth in 2032, astronomers warn
Astronomers have discovered a potentially hazardous asteroid that has a chance of smashing into Earth in 2032. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is 44 million kilometres (27m miles) from Earth, travelling at a velocity of 13.5 km/s, according to Nasa's Eyes on Asteroid. Measuring roughly 60-metres across, the space rock is currently the only Near-Earth Object (NEO) that has been placed at a level three on the Torino impact scale, which gives it the highest probability of impact of any other large objects being tracked by Nasa and other space agencies. Discovered on Christmas Day by the Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona, the potential impact date is scheduled for 22 December 2032, however astronomers say the odds of a collision are around 1-in-83. David Rankin from the Catalina Sky Survey said the current offs are 'one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever'. This figure is only a rough estimation, with more observations needed to give a better idea of how close it will actually come. 'Recently-discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 may make a very close approach to Earth in eight years,' said Tony Dunn, an amateur astronomer who shared a visualisation of the asteroid on X (formerly Twitter). 'It is thought to be 40-100 metres wide. Uncertainty is still high and more observations are needed to confirm this.' Dunn's animation of the asteroid shows it skimming Earth at an altitude of 458km, with its trajectory altered by the planet's gravitational pull. This is less than half the distance of most low-Earth orbit satellites, suggesting that it could even be pulled into Earth's atmosphere at that altitude. The 'risk corridor' for impact stretches from South America, across central Africa and up towards India and South-East this could shift as new data emerges. How devastating the impact will potentially be will depend not only on the size of the asteroid, but also its composition. By comparison, the asteroid that ended the age of the dinosaur is estimated to be between 10 and 15 kilometres wide.
