Latest news with #TorinoHazardImpactScale
Yahoo
24-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Chances of asteroid impact change: what it means
(INTERNATIONAL) — We've been following reports of an asteroid that scientists said was going to make impact with Earth in 2032. But the news has now changed for the better. In January, asteroid 2024 YR4 was reported to have a one in 88 chance of impacting the Earth. Then, on Feb. 17, the chance of impact almost doubled to a one in 32 chance. This was notable because not only did the chances almost double, but according to NASA, the asteroid became the most risky asteroid in the history of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies Sentry Risk Table. However, NASA now says they took more data and measurements recently, and as of Saturday, Feb. 22, the chance of impact has been lowered to one in 360, or a 0.28% chance. This brings 2024 YR4 down from a three on the Torino Hazard Impact Scale, where it would merit attention, to a one, meaning no threat at this time. In addition, the report indicated that this chance could actually go down to zero by the end of February as more orbital data comes in. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
31-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Interception Plans Underway For Large Asteroid That Could Hit Earth In 2032
It's like something out of a movie script. A planetary defense response is underway after an asteroid discovered at the end of 2024 was found to have a small chance of colliding with earth in the coming years. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 98.7% chance of passing right by Earth in 2032, but that leaves a 1.3% chance that it could smack right into us. That's a 1-in-83 chance, New Scientist reports. It rates a 3 on the Torino Hazard Impact Scale, and only one other asteroid has been rated higher since the scale's inception in 1999. That was Apophis in 2004, which was initially rated a 4, but was later downgraded after further observation. (MORE: Asteroid Holds The Key Building Blocks To Life) The asteroid now sits at the top of the European Space Agency's asteroid risk list. 2024 YR4 is about the size of a building, which would inflict localized destruction if it did strike Earth. Two UN-endorsed global asteroid response groups have been activated since the asteroid's discovery. The International Asteroid Warning Network is working to more accurately determine the asteroid's orbit and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group is working on a plan to intervene with the asteroid if necessary. This plan could involve intervention via spacecraft to deflect the asteroid off course, according to The Guardian. According to the European Space Agency, it's common for an asteroid's impact probability to rise before quickly being assessed as zero after additional observations. 'Most likely this one will pass by harmlessly,' Colin Snodgrass, professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, told The Guardian. 'It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that. The longer we follow its orbit, the more accurate our future predictions of its trajectory become.'
