Latest news with #TornadoAlley
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
As Louisiana sees more tornadoes, will parishes install sirens?
As tornadoes become increasingly common across Louisiana, the city of New Orleans is considering a siren system to help people get to safety faster if a twister is approaching. Louisiana has been hit by more than 100 twisters since 2023, many of which have occurred at night and sometimes during hurricanes. Though most of those tornadoes caused relatively little damage, two people were killed last May by high winds and severe weather across the state. The West Bank of New Orleans and the community of Arabi in St. Bernard Parish were both struck by tornadoes twice in 2022, the second of which killed one. Currently, no parish in the state has a comprehensive outdoor warning system, commonly known as a siren system, to warn people to retreat indoors if a storm is approaching or other public emergency is taking place. Siren systems are common across 'Tornado Alley' — Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and South Dakota — but in recent years, tornadoes have been shifting eastward, leading local emergency management officials to question whether it's worth installing sirens in Louisiana next. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX Collin Arnold, the director of homeland security and emergency preparedness for New Orleans, said he has been 'brought around' to the idea of installing a siren system as the technology has progressed in the last several years. 'We typically associate outdoor warning systems with just sirens or tones, but they're advanced to the point now where you can actually verbalize messages through them,' he said. In New Orleans, a siren system could also be used to alert people in situations ranging from imminent coastal flooding to active shooter threats, Arnold said. He pointed to recent natural disasters in the state, such as the Arabi tornado in 2022 — the strongest in the state's history — as well as the mass floods in Texas that killed at least 136 in early July. 'I have thought since that it is worth looking into,' he said. Arnold said he has been in talks with several national outdoor warning system manufacturers and estimates the cost of installing a comprehensive siren system across Orleans Parish to be around $10 million. Installing sirens on telephone poles or street lights, which already have a power supply connected, could minimize the cost, according to Arnold, who said he is asking potential siren contractors to look into the possibility of using existing infrastructure as a cost-saving measure. Ryan Dean is the founding partner and chief revenue officer at the outdoor warning systems company OmniWarn, one of the vendors Arnold said he contacted. Dean said the siren itself typically affects the total cost more than where it is installed. 'Sometimes we'll start with sirens at all of the parks, and then we'll put them at all the schools, and slowly expand it out like that,' he said. 'However…when I show [city officials] the price tag to do it all at once, they're pleasantly surprised with how inexpensive it is.' Dean said OmniWarn charges between $30,000 to $50,000 per siren, each of which is designed to last decades. OmniWarn recently installed 30 sirens for $1.3 million in the east Texas city of Pasadena. Whether or not the city moves forward with installing sirens, Arnold said New Orleans residents should make sure they are subscribed to NOLA Ready text message alerts to get up-to-date information on any public emergency, from tornadoes to acts of terrorism. How effective are sirens? Debra Campbell, chairperson for A Community Voice, a local nonprofit for social and economic justice, has been calling on New Orleans to install an outdoor warning system since 2017. Campbell said city officials who claim text message and social media alerts are enough of a warning fail to recognize that many people do not have access to a cell phone. Campbell's son, who has autism, would be far more likely to listen to a siren than a text alert, she said. 'My son will probably not pay attention to an alert on the phone, but if you give him a deafening siren, then he'll be aware that something is going on in the area,' she said. The city of Dallas is home to a comprehensive outdoor warning system that has been periodically expanded and updated over the years. John Patterson has managed the Dallas siren system for nearly 10 years. He called it 'just one tool in our warning toolbox, if you will.' Patterson noted that outdoor warning systems can be used for a variety of public emergencies, from hail, high winds and other extreme weather, to chemical spills involving toxic fumes. When the sirens are activated, the office also posts alerts on social media. 'If people hear it, they can't assume that it's a tornado issue,' he said. 'It could be anything else. That's why we tell people, when you hear it, go inside and turn on local radio and television news and find out what the situation is.' The sirens are tested once per month, weather permitting, to avoid confusing the public. Patterson said the city still occasionally gets calls from people who aren't sure whether the test is real. Still, sirens have their limitations, said Samantha Montano, associate professor of emergency management at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy, who began studying disaster relief after visiting New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. 'Sirens don't do as much as people think they do,' she said. 'They tend to be more expensive and not quite as effective as the public thinks they are.' Montano pointed out how sirens can generally only be heard when outside, and sometimes can't be heard over the loud sounds of a storm. She said focusing on more fundamental issues, such as the lack of tornado shelters across New Orleans, would be a more effective preparation tactic. A statewide question Although nuclear power plants and universities across the state have used localized outdoor warning systems over the years, Orleans Parish would be the state's first parishwide public siren system. It's up to parishes as to whether or not to invest in such a system, said Mike Steele, communications director with the Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, though the state can assist with obtaining federal funding. In the aftermath of the Arabi tornado, the state legislature put together a task force in 2023 for emergency managers across the state to discuss future tornado preparedness. There, members of the public shared their desire for the city to invest in an outdoor warning system, Arnold said. In Lafayette Parish, emergency management officials are sticking with a text message notification system as the primary tool to notify residents about tornadoes and other emergencies, given cost constraints. 'If we had all the money we wanted, yes, obviously we'd have sirens,' said Chad Sonnier, the parish's top emergency management official. 'However when you have limited funds, you try and get the most bang for your buck, and we think the system we have now is the way to go.' Last June, a tornado hit Youngsville, a city of 19,000 people located in the southern part of Lafayette Parish, damaging trees, trailers and power lines. Scott Gilbeaux, who lost his trailer home in the Youngsville twister, said he only learned about the tornado when he heard a loud sound similar to a train whistle close to midnight — a tell-tale sign of an impending tornado — and turned on the TV to see that one was on the way. 'Thank god I was awake,' Gilbeaux said. 'We don't have [sirens] back here — we're in the country.' Gilbeaux has since managed to get back on his feet with the help of family and friends. He said that with or without a siren system, at the end of the day, there is little that can be done ahead of a devastating natural disaster. 'I'm not prepared,' he said. 'What's going to happen is going to happen.' In New Orleans, a 'robust' public education program, including social media posts and coverage from news outlets, would be needed if the city were to install and periodically test an outdoor warning system, Arnold said. Regardless of the views of the public or disaster relief officials, Arnold said the decision-making power on whether or not to invest in an outdoor warning system lies elsewhere. Arnold said he has spoken to Mayor LaToya Cantrell and other city leaders about installing sirens and that the response has been positive. In a statement, the Mayor's Office said the city is looking into the 'feasibility, value and potential deployment of such a system.' 'Ultimately it will be the elected leadership of the city — the mayor and the city council — that will determine from the will of the voters what direction we want to go with this,' Arnold said. SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE This article first appeared on Verite News New Orleans and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Newsweek
10-07-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Map Shows Rising Home Insurance Costs Across 50 States
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. The cost of home insurance spiked all across the country over the past six years, according to a new analysis by LendingTree, with no state spared of premium hikes. Between 2019 and 2024, the cost of home insurance increased by a cumulative 40.4 percent, the company found, with the biggest increases concentrated in the past two to three years. From 2019 through 2021, rates were inching up at a relatively slow pace, with 2021 seeing the biggest jump at 3 percent. From then on, the surge of home insurance rates across the country accelerated significantly. In 2022, rates jumped by 5.4 percent; in 2023, by 11 percent; and in 2024, by 11.4 percent—the highest increase reported in that five-year timeframe. West Leads For Biggest Rate Hikes The national level rates have risen by an average 40.4 percent and the state that has faced the steepest increase—Colorado—reported a hike nearly twice as high, at 76.6 percent. It was followed by Nebraska (72.3 percent) and Utah (70.6 percent). Natural disasters have become more frequent and more severe in these states in recent years, increasing catastrophe exposure for insurers—the potential financial losses resulting from catastrophic events—and bringing up the cost of rebuilding at a time when the construction market is facing rising costs overall and a widespread labor shortage. Colorado homeowners face the growing threat of wildfires, hailstorms, wind and snowstorms. Nebraskans living in so-called "Tornado Alley" are particularly vulnerable to suffer property damage during storm season. And in Utah, global warming is making storms and wildfires more dangerous than ever. "Insurance companies have been raising their rates to keep up with their escalating expenses," LendingTree home insurance expert and licensed insurance agent Rob Bhatt said in the report. "The early 2020s saw an uptick in natural disasters and inflation. Insurance companies have had to rebuild more homes than normal, and the cost of rebuilding each one has become more expensive." Between 2020 and 2024, according to data by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Colorado reported 22 billion-dollar disasters estimated to have caused losses between $10 billion and $20 billion. The same numbers were reported by Nebraska in the same timeframe, while Utah faced 5 million-dollar disasters costing an estimated $250 million to $500 million. 2024: Bad Year For Insurers In 2024 alone, Montana and Nebraska were the states facing the highest home insurance rate hikes in the country, both at 22.1 percent. They were followed by Washington at 19.5 percent. Some of the states that have taken the brunt of the country's home insurance crisis, on the other hand, reported the smallest increases in the country. In Florida, rates went up by 1.7 percent in 2024 and in Texas 3.4 percent. That is probably because, in these two states, insurers have already significantly increased their rates or dropped out of the most at-risk areas to avoid higher costs. In other words, they were more prepared for what was coming—hurricanes, storms and flooding—than insurers in less vulnerable states might have been. "Home insurance companies had significant expenses in 2023," Bhatt said. "In seven states, they paid out more in claims than they earned in premiums. Like companies in other industries, they need to earn more than they spend to remain solvent. Unfortunately, they often have to raise their rates to accomplish this goal." Rates Are High—And Likely To Continue Rising Homeownership has become more expensive in recent years for Americans, as prices skyrocketed during the pandemic homebuying frenzy and mortgage rates have hovered around the 7 percent mark for the past three years. Rising home insurance rates are coming on top of these existing challenges, putting an additional burden on homeowners. As of 2025, the average cost of home insurance in the country is $2,801 per year, according to LendingTree. In every state, however, homeowners pay a different rate. Oklahomans currently pay the highest home insurance rates in the country, at $6,133 per year—more than double the national average—followed by Nebraskans ($5,912) and Kansans ($5,412). "For new homebuyers, rising home insurance costs can reduce the amount they can borrow, which, in turn, can make it more difficult to find an affordable home," Bhatt said. "If you already own your home, rising insurance costs cut into your budget for other household essentials." Several experts expect the cost of home insurance to continue rising this year as President Donald Trump's tariffs on U.S. trading partners increase the cost of crucial material used to rebuild homes damaged by natural disasters. Insurify expects rates to jump by 11 percent across the country by the end of the year.
Yahoo
06-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Severe weather hits the US hard as key forecast offices reel from Trump cuts
A brutal stretch of severe weather has taxed communities on the eastern fringes of tornado alley this spring and early summer, while harsh staffing cuts and budget restrictions have forced federal meteorologists to attempt to forecast the carnage with less data. As of 30 June, there have already been more than 1,200 tornadoes nationwide. More than 60 people have died due to this year's tornadoes, most of which have centered on the Mississippi River valley – about 500 miles east of the traditional heart of 'tornado alley' of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. That unusual eastward shift may also be making tornado outbreaks more dangerous, bringing them in closer proximity to more people than the relatively sparsely populated plains states. Related: Week of sweltering US heat – is this the new normal in a warming world? In addition to the tornadoes, it's also been a burdensome year for flash flooding. On 14 June, more than three inches of rain fell in just half an hour in West Virginia, washing away a young boy and prompting frantic emergency rescues across two counties in the northern part of the state. According to National Weather Service statistics, rainfall that intense could only be expected to happen about once every thousand years in a stable climate. As the weather has worsened, there have been fewer federal scientists to alert the public of it. Cuts to the weather service by Trump and the so-called 'department of government efficiency' (Doge) have left NWS local forecast offices critically understaffed throughout this year's heightened severe weather. In April, an internal document reportedly described how cuts could create a situation of 'degraded' operations – shutting down core services one by one until it reaches an equilibrium that doesn't overtax its remaining employees. The changing climate is also making simultaneous weather disasters more likely, such as overlapping tornadoes and flash floods – creating emergency preparedness difficulties and compounding the effects of funding cuts. Deadly storms earlier this spring in Kentucky and Missouri featured torrential rains during an ongoing tornado outbreak, a nightmare scenario that demands close attention by emergency managers to avoid people seeking shelter in flood zones. At the NWS office in Jackson, Kentucky, however, a staffing shortage meant there was no on-duty forecaster for the overnight shift when the storms were at their peak. This year marks the first time that local NWS forecast offices have stopped round-the-clock operations in the agency's modern history. Now, additional meteorologists are being remanded from research roles – where they would normally be working to improve techniques and make advances for future years – into the forecasting frontlines in an attempt to fill the staffing gaps. 'The world's example for weather services is being destroyed,' wrote Chris Vagasky, a meteorologist at the University of Wisconsin, on social media earlier this spring after a round of major changes were announced. In May, the main computer system that distributes NWS weather alerts to local partners for emergency broadcast suffered a lengthy outage. By the time the system was back online hours later, at least one flash flood warning, near Albuquerque, New Mexico and at least one tornado warning, near Columbia, South Carolina, never made it to the public. The decision to collect a bedrock source of data for forecasters – weather balloons – has been deferred to local offices, essentially making twice-daily launches optional for understaffed forecast centers. In June, offices that missed balloon launches serve New York City, Atlanta, Portland, and more than 10 sites in the midwest. Of the 91 launch sites, just over 70 sites were consistently launching balloons during peak tornado season in May – a loss of one-quarter of this critical data source. First used in 1896, weather balloon launches are still the single-most important type of data that meteorologists use. Weather balloons are the only way meteorologists have of taking direct measurements of air pressure, winds, temperature and humidity throughout the atmosphere simultaneously at about 1,000 locations across the world – this data forms the basis for all computer-derived weather forecasts that appear on weather apps. Since upper atmospheric winds generally blow from west to east in the US, the persistent data loss has tended to affect weather forecasts in the eastern half of the country the most – exactly where tornadoes are happening more frequently. The entire process to launch a weather balloon takes an NWS employee about three hours. Since the balloon launches are time-consuming and difficult to automate, they are being phased out at NWS offices with staffing shortages – even though they collect essential data. 'At the expense of weather balloons, we would rather focus our energy on looking at other data that will allow us to be able to give you the advance prediction that a tornado will occur,' Suzanne Fortin, meteorologist in charge at the Omaha NWS said in a March press conference shortly after the cuts were announced. 'That's the reason we're suspending, so we can focus on those life-saving warnings that can keep people safe.' In May, every living former director of the NWS signed on to an open letter with a warning that, if continued, Trump's cuts to federal weather forecasting would create 'needless loss of life'. Despite bipartisan congressional pushback for a restoration in staffing and funding to the NWS, sharp budget cuts remain on pace in projections for the 2026 budget for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the parent organization of the NWS. On Monday, in its annual budget request to Congress, Noaa proposed a slight budget increase for the NWS for fiscal year 2026 while maintaining deep cuts to its research budget that provides tools to forecasters. 'Noaa leadership is taking steps to address those who took a voluntary early retirement option,' Erica Grow Cei, an NWS spokesperson, said in a statement to the Guardian when asked about staffing. 'NWS continues to conduct short-term Temporary Duty assignments (TDYs), and is in the process of conducting a series of Reassignment Opportunity Notices (RONs) to fill roles at NWS field locations with the greatest operational need. 'Additionally, a targeted number of permanent, mission-critical field positions will soon be advertised under an exception to the Department-wide hiring freeze to further stabilize frontline operations.' In a 5 June hearing on Capitol Hill, the commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, whose role includes overseeing Noaa, and by extension the NWS, defended the administration's approach, claiming agencies were 'full staffed' and were 'transforming how we track storms and forecast weather with cutting-edge technology'. 'Under no circumstances am I going to let public safety or public forecasting be touched,' he said. Studies over the past decade have shown that global heating may be acting to both intensify tornado outbreaks and shift the tornado season eastward and earlier in the year. Warmer air can also hold more water vapor, making extreme rains even more intense. Five of the past six seasons have had a higher-than-average death toll. This year's tornado season is the second-busiest on record, and last year's was the third-busiest. Weather experts generally agree that this surge in tornado activity is due in part to unusually warm temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico that have helped supply the eastern US with the necessary ingredients for tornado formation. At the same time, new studies suggest that unusual summertime warming is concentrating activity into fewer days. The NWS anticipated some of these changes and had been planning to consolidate and modernize its forecast systems to be more responsive to complex weather emergencies. But what was supposed to be a multi-year transition to a 'mutual aid' concept has instead taken place haphazardly over the past several weeks. According to climate scientists and public safety experts, all of this adds up to more deaths in disasters. As peak hurricane season approaches, this is a big concern. Eric Holthaus is a meteorologist and climate journalist based in Minnesota
The Guardian
01-07-2025
- Climate
- The Guardian
Severe weather hits the US hard as key forecast offices reel from Trump cuts
A brutal stretch of severe weather has taxed communities on the eastern fringes of tornado alley this spring and early summer, while harsh staffing cuts and budget restrictions have forced federal meteorologists to attempt to forecast the carnage with less data. As of 30 June, there have already been more than 1,200 tornadoes nationwide. More than 60 people have died due to this year's tornadoes, most of which have centered on the Mississippi River valley – about 500 miles east of the traditional heart of 'tornado alley' of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. That unusual eastward shift may also be making tornado outbreaks more dangerous, bringing them in closer proximity to more people than the relatively sparsely populated plains states. In addition to the tornadoes, it's also been a burdensome year for flash flooding. On 14 June, more than three inches of rain fell in just half an hour in West Virginia, washing away a young boy and prompting frantic emergency rescues across two counties in the northern part of the state. According to National Weather Service statistics, rainfall that intense could only be expected to happen about once every thousand years in a stable climate. As the weather has worsened, there have been fewer federal scientists to alert the public of it. Cuts to the weather service by Trump and the so-called 'department of government efficiency' (Doge) have left NWS local forecast offices critically understaffed throughout this year's heightened severe weather. In April, an internal document reportedly described how cuts could create a situation of 'degraded' operations – shutting down core services one by one until it reaches an equilibrium that doesn't overtax its remaining employees. The changing climate is also making simultaneous weather disasters more likely, such as overlapping tornadoes and flash floods – creating emergency preparedness difficulties and compounding the effects of funding cuts. Deadly storms earlier this spring in Kentucky and Missouri featured torrential rains during an ongoing tornado outbreak, a nightmare scenario that demands close attention by emergency managers to avoid people seeking shelter in flood zones. At the NWS office in Jackson, Kentucky, however, a staffing shortage meant there was no on-duty forecaster for the overnight shift when the storms were at their peak. This year marks the first time that local NWS forecast offices have stopped round-the-clock operations in the agency's modern history. Now, additional meteorologists are being remanded from research roles – where they'd normally be working to improve techniques and make advances for future years – into the forecasting frontlines in an attempt to fill the staffing gaps. 'The world's example for weather services is being destroyed,' wrote Chris Vagasky, a meteorologist at the University of Wisconsin, on social media earlier this spring after a round of major changes were announced. In May, the main computer system that distributes NWS weather alerts to local partners for emergency broadcast suffered a lengthy outage. By the time the system was back online hours later, at least one flash flood warning, near Albuquerque, New Mexico and at least one tornado warning, near Columbia, South Carolina, never made it to the public. The decision to collect a bedrock source of data for forecasters – weather balloons – has been deferred to local offices, essentially making twice-daily launches optional for understaffed forecast centers. In June, offices that missed balloon launches serve New York City, Atlanta, Portland, and more than 10 sites in the midwest. Of the 91 launch sites, just over 70 sites were consistently launching balloons during peak tornado season in May – a loss of one-quarter of this critical data source. First used in 1896, weather balloon launches are still the single-most important type of data that meteorologists use. Weather balloons are the only way meteorologists have of taking direct measurements of air pressure, winds, temperature, and humidity throughout the atmosphere simultaneously at about 1,000 locations across the world – this data forms the basis for all computer-derived weather forecasts that appear on weather apps. Since upper atmospheric winds generally blow from west to east in the US, the persistent data loss has tended to affect weather forecasts in the eastern half of the country the most – exactly where tornadoes are happening more frequently. The entire process to launch a weather balloon takes a NWS employee about three hours. Since the balloon launches are time-consuming and difficult to automate, they're being phased out at NWS offices with staffing shortages – even though they collect essential data. 'At the expense of weather balloons, we would rather focus our energy on looking at other data that will allow us to be able to give you the advance prediction that a tornado will occur,' Suzanne Fortin, meteorologist in charge at the Omaha NWS said in a March press conference shortly after the cuts were announced. 'That's the reason we're suspending, so we can focus on those life-saving warnings that can keep people safe.' In May, every living former director of the NWS signed on to an open letter with a warning that, if continued, Trump's cuts to federal weather forecasting would create 'needless loss of life'. Despite bipartisan congressional pushback for a restoration in staffing and funding to the NWS, sharp budget cuts remain on pace in projections for the 2026 budget for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the parent organization of the NWS. On Monday, in its annual budget request to Congress, Noaa proposed a slight budget increase for the NWS for fiscal year 2026 while maintaining deep cuts to its research budget that provides tools to forecasters. 'Noaa leadership is taking steps to address those who took a voluntary early retirement option,' Erica Grow Cei, an NWS spokesperson, said in a statement to the Guardian when asked about staffing. 'NWS continues to conduct short-term Temporary Duty assignments (TDYs), and is in the process of conducting a series of Reassignment Opportunity Notices (RONs) to fill roles at NWS field locations with the greatest operational need. 'Additionally, a targeted number of permanent, mission-critical field positions will soon be advertised under an exception to the Department-wide hiring freeze to further stabilize frontline operations.' In a 5 June hearing on Capitol Hill, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, whose role includes overseeing Noaa, and by extension the NWS, defended the administration's approach claiming agencies were 'full staffed' and were 'transforming how we track storms and forecast weather with cutting-edge technology'. 'Under no circumstances am I going to let public safety or public forecasting be touched,' he said. . Studies over the past decade have shown that global heating may be acting to both intensify tornado outbreaks and shift the tornado season eastward and earlier in the year. Warmer air can also hold more water vapor, making extreme rains even more intense. Five of the past six seasons have had a higher-than-average death toll. This year's tornado season is the second-busiest on record, and last year's was the third-busiest. Weather experts generally agree that this surge in tornado activity is due in part to unusually warm temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico that have helped supply the eastern US with the necessary ingredients for tornado formation. At the same time, new studies suggest that unusual summertime warming is concentrating activity into fewer days. The NWS anticipated some of these changes and had been planning to consolidate and modernize its forecast systems to be more responsive to complex weather emergencies. But what was supposed to be a multi-year transition to a 'mutual aid' concept has instead taken place haphazardly over the past several weeks. According to climate scientists and public safety experts, all of this adds up to more deaths in disasters. As peak hurricane season approaches, this is a big concern. Eric Holthaus is a meteorologist and climate journalist based in Minnesota
The Guardian
01-07-2025
- Climate
- The Guardian
Severe weather hits the US hard as key forecast offices reel from Trump cuts
A brutal stretch of severe weather has taxed communities on the eastern fringes of tornado alley this spring and early summer, while harsh staffing cuts and budget restrictions have forced federal meteorologists to attempt to forecast the carnage with less data. As of 30 June, there have already been more than 1,200 tornadoes nationwide. More than 60 people have died due to this year's tornadoes, most of which have centered on the Mississippi River valley – about 500 miles east of the traditional heart of 'tornado alley' of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. That unusual eastward shift may also be making tornado outbreaks more dangerous, bringing them in closer proximity to more people than the relatively sparsely populated plains states. In addition to the tornadoes, it's also been a burdensome year for flash flooding. On 14 June, more than three inches of rain fell in just half an hour in West Virginia, washing away a young boy and prompting frantic emergency rescues across two counties in the northern part of the state. According to National Weather Service statistics, rainfall that intense could only be expected to happen about once every thousand years in a stable climate. As the weather has worsened, there have been fewer federal scientists to alert the public of it. Cuts to the weather service by Trump and the so-called 'department of government efficiency' (Doge) have left NWS local forecast offices critically understaffed throughout this year's heightened severe weather. In April, an internal document reportedly described how cuts could create a situation of 'degraded' operations – shutting down core services one by one until it reaches an equilibrium that doesn't overtax its remaining employees. The changing climate is also making simultaneous weather disasters more likely, such as overlapping tornadoes and flash floods – creating emergency preparedness difficulties and compounding the effects of funding cuts. Deadly storms earlier this spring in Kentucky and Missouri featured torrential rains during an ongoing tornado outbreak, a nightmare scenario that demands close attention by emergency managers to avoid people seeking shelter in flood zones. At the NWS office in Jackson, Kentucky, however, a staffing shortage meant there was no on-duty forecaster for the overnight shift when the storms were at their peak. This year marks the first time that local NWS forecast offices have stopped round-the-clock operations in the agency's modern history. Now, additional meteorologists are being remanded from research roles – where they'd normally be working to improve techniques and make advances for future years – into the forecasting frontlines in an attempt to fill the staffing gaps. 'The world's example for weather services is being destroyed,' wrote Chris Vagasky, a meteorologist at the University of Wisconsin, on social media earlier this spring after a round of major changes were announced. In May, the main computer system that distributes NWS weather alerts to local partners for emergency broadcast suffered a lengthy outage. By the time the system was back online hours later, at least one flash flood warning, near Albuquerque, New Mexico and at least one tornado warning, near Columbia, South Carolina, never made it to the public. The decision to collect a bedrock source of data for forecasters – weather balloons – has been deferred to local offices, essentially making twice-daily launches optional for understaffed forecast centers. In June, offices that missed balloon launches serve New York City, Atlanta, Portland, and more than 10 sites in the midwest. Of the 91 launch sites, just over 70 sites were consistently launching balloons during peak tornado season in May – a loss of one-quarter of this critical data source. First used in 1896, weather balloon launches are still the single-most important type of data that meteorologists use. Weather balloons are the only way meteorologists have of taking direct measurements of air pressure, winds, temperature, and humidity throughout the atmosphere simultaneously at about 1,000 locations across the world – this data forms the basis for all computer-derived weather forecasts that appear on weather apps. Since upper atmospheric winds generally blow from west to east in the US, the persistent data loss has tended to affect weather forecasts in the eastern half of the country the most – exactly where tornadoes are happening more frequently. The entire process to launch a weather balloon takes a NWS employee about three hours. Since the balloon launches are time-consuming and difficult to automate, they're being phased out at NWS offices with staffing shortages – even though they collect essential data. 'At the expense of weather balloons, we would rather focus our energy on looking at other data that will allow us to be able to give you the advance prediction that a tornado will occur,' Suzanne Fortin, meteorologist in charge at the Omaha NWS said in a March press conference shortly after the cuts were announced. 'That's the reason we're suspending, so we can focus on those life-saving warnings that can keep people safe.' In May, every living former director of the NWS signed on to an open letter with a warning that, if continued, Trump's cuts to federal weather forecasting would create 'needless loss of life'. Despite bipartisan congressional pushback for a restoration in staffing and funding to the NWS, sharp budget cuts remain on pace in projections for the 2026 budget for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the parent organization of the NWS. On Monday, in its annual budget request to Congress, Noaa proposed a slight budget increase for the NWS for fiscal year 2026 while maintaining deep cuts to its research budget that provides tools to forecasters. 'Noaa leadership is taking steps to address those who took a voluntary early retirement option,' Erica Grow Cei, an NWS spokesperson, said in a statement to the Guardian when asked about staffing. 'NWS continues to conduct short-term Temporary Duty assignments (TDYs), and is in the process of conducting a series of Reassignment Opportunity Notices (RONs) to fill roles at NWS field locations with the greatest operational need. 'Additionally, a targeted number of permanent, mission-critical field positions will soon be advertised under an exception to the Department-wide hiring freeze to further stabilize frontline operations.' In a 5 June hearing on Capitol Hill, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, whose role includes overseeing Noaa, and by extension the NWS, defended the administration's approach claiming agencies were 'full staffed' and were 'transforming how we track storms and forecast weather with cutting-edge technology'. 'Under no circumstances am I going to let public safety or public forecasting be touched,' he said. . Studies over the past decade have shown that global heating may be acting to both intensify tornado outbreaks and shift the tornado season eastward and earlier in the year. Warmer air can also hold more water vapor, making extreme rains even more intense. Five of the past six seasons have had a higher-than-average death toll. This year's tornado season is the second-busiest on record, and last year's was the third-busiest. Weather experts generally agree that this surge in tornado activity is due in part to unusually warm temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico that have helped supply the eastern US with the necessary ingredients for tornado formation. At the same time, new studies suggest that unusual summertime warming is concentrating activity into fewer days. The NWS anticipated some of these changes and had been planning to consolidate and modernize its forecast systems to be more responsive to complex weather emergencies. But what was supposed to be a multi-year transition to a 'mutual aid' concept has instead taken place haphazardly over the past several weeks. According to climate scientists and public safety experts, all of this adds up to more deaths in disasters. As peak hurricane season approaches, this is a big concern. Eric Holthaus is a meteorologist and climate journalist based in Minnesota
