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'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' Threatens America's Trucking Future
Before your food gets to the fridge, it likely travels long distances—on a diesel truck. From apples to iPhones, trucks move 72% of goods sold in America's stores, and freight costs shape what consumers pay, with those costs dictated by the volatile price of diesel fuel.
Now, a quiet revolution is underway: Electric heavy-duty trucks are taking over the roads, and they could drive down consumer costs by cutting what it costs to ship the goods we buy. Global sales jumped 80% in 2024 compared to the year before—a surge that signals the shift is accelerating.
San Pedro, CA - December 17: The first two zero-emissions electric trucks, from an order of 100 ... More vehicles, delivered from the Nikola Corporation to Total Transportation Services at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro on Friday, December 17, 2021. (Photo by Brittany Murray/MediaNews Group/Long Beach Press-Telegram via Getty Images)
While the shift is most visible abroad, Energy Innovation's new report Delivering Affordability shows the same economic forces are taking hold across the United States. Battery-electric trucks will soon be cheaper than diesel trucks based on total cost of ownership across most vehicle types by 2030—even without subsidies. The potential payoffs for the American economy are significant: lower freight costs, lower consumer costs, expanded domestic manufacturing, and stronger global competitiveness.
But that potential is at risk. The fate of federal clean energy tax credits in 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' being debated by Congress will dictate whether the U.S. stays in the race or falls behind just as momentum builds. States are stepping up—but the version of the bill passed by one vote in the House of Representatives threatens to derail this transition. The question now is whether federal policy will steady the course or undermine it.
The Cost Case for Electric Heavy-Duty Vehicles
Energy Innovation's rigorous TCO analysis captures five-year ownership costs for battery-electric trucks—including vehicle purchase, fuel, maintenance, and charging infrastructure. The findings exclude federal and state purchase incentives.
The results are striking. Across all categories, including Class 8 long-haul tractors, battery-electric trucks are projected to beat diesel by decade's end. And by 2035, electric truck TCO savings are estimated at $20,000 for Class 4–7 models, and more than $50,000 for Class 8 tractors.
Still, today's sticker prices may raise questions. Globally, electric truck prices are falling, but the U.S. is a stubborn outlier. While costs fall in Europe and China, U.S. prices have risen.
Two factors stand out: lack of new vehicle purchase price transparency and limited manufacturer competition. Reforms that address both would help align U.S. prices with global trends.
What's at Stake: Affordability, Manufacturing, and Global Competitiveness
Lower trucking costs ripple through supply chains, easing consumer price pressure. As inflation remains a top concern, electric HDVs offer a long-term deflationary lever hiding in plain sight.
But the stakes go further. Since 2021, the U.S. has become the world's top destination for electric vehicle and battery manufacturing. Companies have committed $209 billion to U.S. EV projects, supporting an estimated 240,000 quality jobs. Mississippi officials described one such project, a commercial vehicle battery factory, as the largest payroll commitment in state history.
The battery waits to be installed on the frame of Ford Motor Co. battery powered F-150 Lightning ... More trucks under production at their Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, Michigan on September 20, 2022. - Construction crews are back at Dearborn, remaking Ford's century-old industrial complex once again, this time for a post-petroleum era that is finally beginning to feel possible. The manufacturing operation's prime mission in recent times has been to assemble the best-selling F-150, a gasoline-powered vehicle (Photo by JEFF KOWALSKY / AFP) (Photo by JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images)
Vehicle electrification is also a national competitiveness imperative. The International Energy Agency projects EVs (including plug-in hybrids) will make up 25% of global car sales in 2025, up from just 4% in 2020. Trucks are following suit: electric truck sales rose 80% globally in 2024. The message is clear—the market is moving. If the U.S. retreats, it won't stop the transition. It will just watch from the sidelines.
States Can Stay In The Fast Lane Despite Federal Repeals
Amid federal uncertainty, states have emerged as key actors. But even their leadership is under pressure as Congress recently voted to repeal California's vehicle pollution standards, which has also been adopted by many other states.
Some states have signaled they will mount legal challenges, but this has introduced new uncertainty. To keep momentum, they should prioritize purchase incentives, accelerate charger deployment and prioritize affordable electricity rates.
States can fast-track infrastructure by coordinating corridor plans, aligning funding, and adopting shared standards. Multi-state collaboration can ensure chargers are built where fleets need them most.
Prioritizing affordable electricity rates, especially in states where wildfire-related costs are driving rates up. Energy Innovation's clean industrial rate design work points to a solution: lower rates for flexible demand. HDV charging is power-intensive enough to qualify as industrial use, with more flexibility than most industrial loads.
The Fork in the Road
Congress' effort to repeal California's standards is part of a broader push to dismantle the policies that sparked America's clean manufacturing surge. Federal rollbacks won't halt the global EV shift, but they could stall U.S. progress at a critical moment. They risk eroding investor confidence, slowing adoption, and jeopardizing billions in supply chain investment. This momentum isn't an engine that can be thrown in reverse.
Manufacturing investments slowing in the United States over time
The 'One Big Beautiful Bill' presents a pivotal choice. Preserving existing federal clean energy tax credits would send a powerful signal of continuity and commitment. Undermining them would reverse the very progress that made electric trucks viable in the first place, and now increasingly superior.
The path to lower freight costs, expanded manufacturing, and stronger competitiveness is still within reach—but only if federal policy holds and states keep leading.
