Latest news with #TourismEconomics
Forbes
4 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Forbes Daily: European Allies Join Zelenskyy And Trump To Talk Ceasefire
A new $250 fee for visitors to the U.S. will deal a multibillion-dollar blow to the already-reeling U.S. tourism industry, industry experts say. The controversial visa integrity fee is expected to deter visitors and cost the economy $11 billion over three years, according to an analysis by Tourism Economics. The Congressional Budget Office says the fee will generate around $27 billion in revenue for the government over a decade, but their estimates don't capture the full impact—fewer tourists translates to less spending, lower tax revenue and job losses in the industry. 'I think in the minds of congressional leaders, foreign visitors don't vote, so making them pay more … wouldn't come at any political cost,' Erik Hansen of the U.S. Travel Association told Forbes . 'But the problem is it comes at a huge economic cost to American businesses.' KEVIN DIETSCH/GETTY IMAGES; ANDREW HARNIK/GETTY IMAGES Elon Musk and Sam Altman weren't always at odds—they met in the early 2010s, bonded over their shared concerns about artificial intelligence, and cofounded OpenAI in 2015 as a nonprofit with the mission of developing AI in a responsible manner. But the vibes started souring in 2023, and now the OpenAI CEO is challenging his former friend, one company at a time: Twitter, Tesla and even Neuralink are in his sights. European leaders will join Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. on Monday—setting up what appears to be crucial talks as Trump pushes for a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine, following his Friday meeting in Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin that yielded no such deal. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte will reportedly take part, as well as leaders from France, Italy, Germany, the U.K. and Finland. UnitedHealth, which operates America's largest health insurer UnitedHealthcare, has tanked nearly 40% this year, making it the Dow Jones Industrial Average's worst performer. But Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway and other high-profile investors are buying the dip: Berkshire disclosed in an SEC filing last week that it purchased over 5 million shares of UnitedHealth Group in the second quarter, briefly sending the stock market to record heights Friday. MONEY + POLITICS Washington, D.C. sued the Trump Administration on Friday over its takeover of the city's police department, arguing the president overstepped his authority as he has aimed to crack down on alleged crime and homelessness. D.C. Attorney General Brian Schwalb called the government's actions a 'brazen usurpation of the district's authority,' as the Home Rule Act, which Trump has used to justify the takeover, also gives the city the right to self-govern. In an attempt to end the state's emissions standards, the Justice Department sued California over its electric vehicle mandate, which the DOJ says is an attempt to 'undermine federal law.' The state's 'Clean Truck Partnership' requires a share of heavy-duty vehicles to be electric by 2035, part of an overall effort for all new passenger trucks, cars and SUVs sold in California to be zero-emission vehicles by that time. SPORTS + ENTERTAINMENT People may consider Rob Gronkowski to be a 'dumb jock,' but the four-time Super Bowl champion has leaned into his affability and self-described 'simple' nature to build one of the most in-demand personal brands of any retired athlete. Including his endorsements with companies such as insurer USAA, online sportsbook FanDuel and Monster Energy, along with his broadcasting gig at Fox and event appearances, Forbes estimates Gronkowski earns at least $10 million annually from his business endeavors before taxes and agents' fees. TRENDS + EXPLAINERS As news of the latest financial fraud continues to make headlines, a recent study from cybersecurity firm BioCatch aims to better understand how financial institutions are fighting fraud and financial crime, the impact of emerging technologies on the dark economy, and the level of collaboration among competing institutions, law enforcement and governments. To stop fraud, it's critical to improve technology, information sharing between institutions and communication, the report found. MORE: The FBI is cautioning about a new scam in which fraudsters pretend to be lawyers with fictitious firms, often using social media to offer their services to scam victims while claiming to have the authority to investigate recovery cases. It's critical to do your due diligence by checking for potential red flags such as references to fake government or regulatory entities or requests for payment in crypto or prepaid gift cards. DAILY COVER STORY Forget BLS. Here's How To Take The Economy's Temperature Without Using Government Data ILLUSTRATION BY MACY SINREICH FOR FORBES After a weak July jobs report and a downward revision of May and June numbers, President Donald Trump pulled a 'kill the messenger' move by firing Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. In her place, Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni, a Heritage Foundation economist, MAGA stalwart and BLS critic. Some worry that if Antoni is confirmed, the numbers coming out of BLS, which tracks the most-watched economic stats in the country—including inflation, unemployment and payrolls—will be altered to support claims Trump is making about the economy. Meanwhile, many of the Trump faithful believe those numbers already were being doctored. There's long been a cottage industry of websites promoting alternative inflation figures. They almost always say it's higher than the official number. The same for unemployment—and even GDP has its skeptics who will tell you we're in a recession no matter what the Bureau of Economic Analysis says. You don't have to be a crank or mistrust the government to appreciate alternative indicators. Even economist Alan Greenspan, who chaired the Federal Reserve for 18 years, had his favorite measure, which he believed could predict a coming downturn or recovery before the official numbers: sales of men's underwear. There's no shortage of alternatives. Some are straightforward—private payroll counts, consumer price trackers. Others are quirky—skirt lengths, lipstick sales, pawn shop activity. They're imperfect and difficult to verify if you don't trust the official data. But they can serve as a gut check, especially if Antoni follows through on his suggestion to pause the monthly jobs even the most straightforward indicators need solid ground to stand on, which brings us to a tricky catch: Alternative data is only as good as the reliable standard you measure it against. WHY IT MATTERS 'President Trump's attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics, accusing the agency of rigging jobs and inflation data, has intensified long-standing public skepticism about official figures,' says Forbes senior reporter Brandon Kochkodin. 'These numbers shape Federal Reserve policies, business decisions and investor confidence. For those doubting the stats, a mix of serious and quirky alternatives—like payroll data or skirt lengths—offers a gut check on the economy's pulse. Hopefully, official data (depending on your perspective) holds or becomes firm, but tracking these alternative indicators, whether out of skepticism or just for fun, can help you cross-check future numbers.' MORE Small Business Optimism Rises In May Despite Tariff Chaos FACTS + COMMENTS A massive property has hit the market in New York's exclusive Tuxedo Park village, which has housed billionaires, socialites and business tycoons since the late 1800s. The Gilded Age estate is the largest in the historic Hudson River Valley town: $29.5 million: The list price for the 151-acre estate 14,000: The square footage in the main house Fewer than 400: The number of residents in Tuxedo Park, whose homes are listed in the National Register of Historic Places STRATEGY + SUCCESS AI is reshaping the modern career ladder, and new college graduates are already feeling the impact, with one report showing a 50% drop in new grad hiring in 2024 compared to pre-pandemic levels. Still, while AI will eventually eliminate some job categories, it will also create new opportunities—and it's important for young people to build strong professional networks and master AI tools by learning how to use them as well as how to judge, curate and refine AI output. VIDEO A nearly billion-dollar movie franchise is returning for the first time in more than a decade. Which franchise is it? A. Scary Movie B. Divergent C. Halloween D. Star Trek Check your answer. Thanks for reading! This edition of Forbes Daily was edited by Chris Dobstaff and Caroline Howard.
The Independent
6 days ago
- Business
- The Independent
Trump's ‘visa integrity fee' could cause a decline in tourism
Donald Trump signed a new $250 ' visa integrity fee' into law, which will take effect in October and applies to non-immigrant visa holders from certain countries. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) initially estimated the fee would generate over $27 billion for the US economy over a decade. However, a Tourism Economics analysis suggests the fee could cost the United States $11 billion over three years by deterring international visitors. This potential decline in tourism could lead to reduced visitor spending and job losses, particularly impacting visitors from significant markets like India and Brazil. The fee is being introduced despite the US already facing a decline in international tourism and ahead of major events such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup and 2028 Summer Olympics.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
How Trump's Travel Crackdown Is Hurting Americans at Home and Abroad
This is part of Reason's 2025 summer travel issue. Click here to read the rest of the issue. As the Trump administration began snatching college students, detaining legal European tourists, denying entry to British crust-punks, rejecting transgender passports, deporting tattooed Salvadorans, insulting the sovereignty of Canadians, and floating plans to ban visitors from 43 countries, the domestic travel and tourism industry braced itself for bad news. "Historical data underscores that trade and geopolitical tensions influence travel demand," warned the research firm Tourism Economics in late February. The group had previously estimated that inbound visits to the U.S. in 2025 would rise 8.8 percent over last year; now it was forecasting a 5.1 percent drop. What's more, inbound travel spending this year "could fall by 12.3 [percent], amounting to a $22 billion annual loss." Sure enough, the year-over-year foreign visitor numbers in March were brutal. Down a jaw-dropping 18.4 percent, they were led by a sharp drop-off from America's No. 1 supplier: Canada. Then came President Donald Trump's 11th week in office. On April 2, the populist president capped a lifelong enthusiasm for tariffs ("the most beautiful word in the dictionary," he has said on multiple occasions) by announcing import taxes that averaged 22 percent, the largest ratchet in U.S. history. The move came as a triple whammy to America's globe-leading $200 billion travel and tourism industry. First, as the luxury travel agent Kate Sullivan told TravelPulse, "the cost of hard goods will increase for hotels, airlines, and other industry sectors, who will likely need to increase rates and fares to cover the increases." Second, the disruptions to the global trading system will hit especially hard some of the fastest-growing sources of U.S. visitation—China, India, and Japan. And finally, the concomitant souring of overseas public opinion, particularly in regions (Scandinavia, Southeast Asia, North America) singled out for criticism by the Trump administration, is already depressing numbers. "The U.S. is not perceived as a welcoming destination," travel agency owner Marco Jahn told the Associated Press after the tariffs were announced. Americans whose incomes are not tethered to the enthusiasms of overseas visitors may have the impression that such industry turmoil will leave their own travel plans unscathed. Alas, they are mistaken. For starters, domestic hoteliers are heavily reliant on imports for furniture, especially from high-tariffed China and Vietnam. Trump's own hotels are filled with foreign-made dishware, chandeliers, and even American flags. Making goods more expensive immediately reduces Americans' discretionary spending, which is the bucket from which travel budgets are drawn. Recessions decrease vacations, sometimes sharply; after Trump's tariffs, most of the major economic forecasting agencies (Moody's, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morningstar) jacked up their expectations for an economic downturn. Consumer confidence also tracks closely with travel planning; the former was at a four-year low even before "Liberation Day" tariffs. Further losses in the stock market—as of press time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 3 percent since Inauguration Day—would also depress demand. It gets worse for the American traveler. Over the decades, the dollar has been propped up by Washington's leadership role in global tariff reduction; now that those tables have been turned, the greenback will be less desirable as the world's backstop currency, placing downward pressure on its value (particularly if America's heretofore world-beating economy begins to sputter). The dollar in Trump's first four months slid 7 percent against the euro. American bookings to the now-more-expensive overseas were already down 13 percent this year before Trump's tariffs. It's not just cost: A mid-March Travel Weekly survey of 400 agents found that 59 percent had heard customer concern about anti-American sentiment abroad, with 22 percent reporting resultant cancellations. A YouGov poll in early March showed that not a single European country surveyed had a net positive view of the U.S., with favorability plummeting between 6 and 28 percentage points over the previous quarter. "In Great Britain, Denmark, Sweden, Spain and Italy, these are the lowest figures…since we began tracking this question," the pollster wrote. So Americans will be traveling domestically, right? Not so fast. Starting on May 7, a whole 17 years after it was originally supposed to happen, Americans are no longer allowed to board a commercial flight unless using a REAL ID. Except Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem said, "If it's not compliant, they may be diverted to a different line, have an extra step, but people will be allowed to fly." As of April, the Transportation Security Administration was reporting that 19 percent of current travelers were passing through checkpoints without Real ID–compliant documents. That's one "papers, please" hassle; another has the potential to affect citizens who don't even board a plane. Amid his Day 1 blizzard of executive orders, Trump signed the ominous-sounding Protecting the American People Against Invasion executive order, requiring foreigners of all nationalities to register with and get fingerprinted by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) within 30 days of being in the country, unless they are exempted by a preexisting visa. Aimed at (and interpreted as) cracking down on resident illegal aliens, the order also affects the millions of Canadians who until now have been allowed to travel visa-free into the U.S. for up to six months. What does this have to do with U.S. citizens? Enforcement. As of April 11, according to the DHS' final rule, "An alien's willful failure or refusal to apply to register or to be fingerprinted is punishable by a fine of up to $5,000 or imprisonment for up to six months, or both." Registered aliens "must at all times carry and have in their personal possession any certificate of alien registration or alien registration receipt card," or else face a $5,000 fine or 30 days in jail. How does law enforcement determine that a human who either does not have or refuses to show identification is actually an alien? This will surely be tested in court. Not being fully free to move about the country is, regrettably, a condition that most Americans have already been living with, in the form of Immigration and Customs Enforcement roadside checkpoints within 100 miles of international borders (a zone that covers two-thirds of the population). And for 99 percent of us, coughing up documentation we were already carrying is a low-impact inconvenience. But millions of Americans this year will still travel in foreign lands, where they are likely to run into an iron rule of international relations: What we do to foreigners, foreigners are eventually going to do to us. Right now, U.S. passport holders can visit most of the world's countries without a visa or with a visa on arrival for up to 90 days. If the DHS gets into the habit of detaining and fingerprinting Europeans after their 30th day of vacation, you can expect that liberalism to constrict. There is precedent. In 2009, as a result of the 9/11 terror attacks, the U.S. created the Electronic System for Travel Authorization, requiring extra fees, wait times, probing questions, and machine-readable passports of visitors even from the now-43 countries in the Visa Waiver Program. The European Union responded with the European Travel Information and Authorization System, which would have been instituted years ago had Eurocrats developed technological competence in the meantime. (Current D-Day estimates are for the end of 2026.) The era of permissionless and comparatively anonymous travel is over. Trade wars are making international exchange more expensive and less fun. And even those of us who choose America and stay off planes may find ourselves asked to prove our legal status to a man with a gun. The past was another country indeed, one that many of us wish we could still visit. The post How Trump's Travel Crackdown Is Hurting Americans at Home and Abroad appeared first on Solve the daily Crossword
Forbes
6 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
New $250 Visa Integrity Fee Will Cost US $11 Billion, Say Tourism Officials
Topline U.S. tourism officials say Congress's controversial $250 visa integrity fee will deter international visitors and cost the country nearly $11 billion in lost visitor spending and tax revenue over the next three years. Key Facts The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the new $250 visa integrity fee will bring in around $27 billion over a decade—or $2.7 billion per year—to U.S. government coffers and reduce the national debt. But a U.S. tourism official told Forbes the fee will instead cost the U.S. economy $11 billion over three years, including $9.4 billion in lost visitor spending and $1.3 billion in lost tax revenue—or about $3.6 billion per year, according to an analysis by Tourism Economics. In addition, the lost revenue will lead to losing 15,000 U.S. travel jobs, according to U.S. tourism industry estimates. How Will The $250 Fee Impact Tourism To The U.s.? The CBO based its estimate solely on the potential revenue generated by the fee itself, while the U.S. tourism industry looked at the macroeconomic impact of implementing the fee, hence the wildly different estimates. The CBO estimated that charging roughly 11 million annual visa applicants $250 apiece would rake in roughly $2.7 billion per year for the State Department. Tourism officials say Congress wrongly assumed the pricey fee would have little impact on the volume of visitation. Tourism Economics, a division of Oxford Economics, estimated that the $250-per-person fee is onerous enough to deter 5.4% of international visitors from coming to the U.S., which would translate to a drop of nearly 1 million fewer visits annually. Fewer visitors translate to less visitor spending, and in turn to lower tax revenue and job losses in the tourism industry, sending a negative ripple effect throughout the national economy. 'By longstanding tradition, the Congressional Budget Office does not incorporate macroeconomic feedback effects into its traditional cost estimates,' a CBO spokesperson told Forbes. 'We didn't specifically do a dynamic analysis of this provision.' In other words, the CBO did not factor in the potential negative economic impact from lower visitor spending, tax revenue and subsequent job cuts—key metrics used by the U.S. tourism industry and the U.S. Commerce Department to evaluate the overall value of tourism to the U.S. economy. 'I think in the minds of congressional leaders, foreign visitors don't vote, so making them pay more to help fund the [Big Beautiful] Bill wouldn't come at any political cost,' Erik Hansen, senior vice president of government relations at the U.S. Travel Association, told Forbes. 'But the problem is it comes at a huge economic cost to American businesses.' What Else Do U.s. Tourism Experts Say Congress Got Wrong? 'Congress made the mistake of assuming that this worldwide visa integrity fee would not have a big impact on visitors from countries like India or Brazil,' Hansen told Forbes. 'This is the exact type of armchair public policymaking that is going to get us into a big mess.' India, in particular, is a 'bright spot' for inbound international travel because visitation numbers have surpassed where they were in 2019, he said, while most other countries are lagging behind their pre-pandemic volume. In 2024, Indian tourists spent roughly $13.3 billion in the U.S., according to the National Travel and Tourism Office, part of the U.S. Commerce Department. 'Applying a $250 fee to a country where travel is growing is mindboggling. It will absolutely deter travel—that's what our research has found,' Hansen said. What Do International Visitors Need To Know About The Visa Integrity Fee? The fee is not actually as 'refundable' as Congress has billed it to be. As written, the Big Beautiful Bill says the State Department 'may reimburse' the fee after the visitor's visa expires, provided that the visa holder has complied with all conditions of the visa. But most visitor visas are valid for 10 years, Hansen pointed out. 'The idea that you're going to give the government money and then wait around 10 years and remember to ask for it back, even if you followed the rules, is just absolutely crazy,' he said. Indeed, to arrive at its projection, the CBO reasoned in its estimate that 'a large number of nonimmigrants would not be eligible to seek reimbursement until several years after paying the fee' so consequently only 'a small number of people would seek reimbursement.' In other words, said Hansen, 'there's a very good understanding that the refund process itself is not going to be easy, and even if it is easy, that a lot of people aren't going to seek that refund after a decade.' Another red flag: The $250 fee was inserted into the Big Beautiful Bill without a plan for processing refunds. In its analysis, the CBO wrote that 'the Department of State would need several years to implement a process for providing reimbursements.' Why Are So Many International Travelers Avoiding The U.s. This Year? In June, a World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) analysis of the economic impact of tourism in 184 countries revealed the U.S. was the only country forecast to see international visitor spending decline in 2025, which by some estimates is as much as $29 billion. The root causes of this decline, multiple studies have found, are a combination of President Trump's tariffs, travel bans, inflammatory rhetoric and harsher immigration policies, all which have created a chilling effect on visitors. 'While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the 'closed' sign,' Julia Simpson, president and CEO of WTTC, said in a statement. 'Given we're halfway through the year and we've seen these impacts, we don't know when the stiffest headwind is, but I think it does stay sustained,' Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, told Forbes last month. 'We're generally assuming that this persists for a while and that some of it is going to persist throughout the end of the administration.' Simpson characterized the WTTC study as a 'wake-up call for the U.S. government,' adding that 'without urgent action to restore international traveler confidence, it could take several years for the U.S. just to return to pre-pandemic levels of international visitor spend.' Tangent Trump's signature spending bill contains another blow to U.S. tourism. A Senate committee led by Senator Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) slashed the budget of Brand USA, the country's public-private destination marketing organization, from $100 million to $20 million. 'This is another error that Congress has made,' Hansen said, noting that the Trump administration recommended full funding for the organization in its fiscal year 2026 budget. 'We have a big misperception problem among international visitors right now, but Congress cut funding for the one organization that's in charge of setting perceptions and sending a welcoming message about travel to the United States.'
Zawya
12-08-2025
- Business
- Zawya
AI is becoming key tool for potential travelers to Middle East: Report
Mubasher: AI is becoming a key tool for travelers planning trips to the Middle East, with nearly six in 10 have used AI for travel planning and with 21% using it before their most recent trip, according to a recent report by Tourism Economics on behalf of Arabian Travel Market (ATM). With the growth of AI adoption, it is expected to play an increasing role in delivering personalized recommendations and booking experiences for tech-savvy travelers. Moreover, travel firms are harnessing AI to enhance customer service and drive economic impact. The report further indicated that 60% of travelers in the UAE trust AI to plan every aspect of their trips, compared to 48% of travelers in other countries, with this figure predicted to rise as technology becomes more embedded into consumer habits. On the other hand, the rise of AI in the business events (MICE) sector is delivering significant gains in efficiency and insight, with the global meetings and events industry set to reach $945 billion in 2025 and projected to exceed $2.30 trillion by 2032, the need for scalable, intelligent tools has never been greater. Data-led personalization is now critical to driving attendee engagement and loyalty, with AI helping to automate sourcing, translate content in real time, and generate tailored event experiences. Exhibition Director ME, Arabian Travel Market, Danielle Curtis, said: 'When it comes to travel and tourism innovations, the most effective technologies are those that amplify human interactions, improve efficiency and respond directly to customer needs.' Curtis concluded: 'The industry has a shared commitment to responsible innovation by placing people at the centre of every technology solution.'
