Latest news with #TradeDataMonitor
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Aluminium premium for US buyers soars after Trump doubles tariffs
By Polina Devitt LONDON (Reuters) -Premiums for consumers buying aluminium on the physical market in the United States soared on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he planned to increase tariffs on imported steel and aluminium to 50% from 25%. The U.S. is heavily reliant on aluminium imports. About half of all aluminium used in the country for transport, packaging and construction is delivered from elsewhere, with the vast majority coming from Canada. The new tariffs are due to take effect on June 4. Buyers on the physical market usually pay the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark aluminium price plus a premium covering taxes, transport and handling costs. The U.S. Midwest duty-paid aluminium premium reached $0.58 per lb, or $1,279 a metric ton, on Monday. That was a 54% jump from Friday and 164% growth since the start of 2025. Part of Monday's growth was amplified by June 2 being the first trading day of the new month, when regional premiums often make a strong move. Goldman Sachs said the premium would need to rise to between $0.68 and $0.70 per lb to fully reflect the 50% import tariff. LME benchmark aluminium was last up 0.4% at $2,453.5 a ton. The higher premium could weigh on U.S. spot market purchases if consumers wait to see if there is a reversal or any exemptions, Morgan Stanley said in a note. Aluminium production depends heavily on the competitively priced and secure power supply source. It has been forty-five years since anyone built a primary aluminium smelter in the U.S. Emirates Global Aluminium said in May it would invest $4 billion in construction of an aluminium plant in the U.S. with first metal expected by the end of the decade. The plant would have an annual production capacity of 600,000 metric tons. For comparison, the U.S. imported 2.7 million tons of unwrought aluminium from Canada last year, according to the Trade Data Monitor. Steel and aluminium tariffs were among the earliest put into effect by Trump when he returned to office in January. The tariffs of 25% on most steel and aluminium imported to the U.S. went into effect in March. The 25% tariff prompted some producers to divert aluminium to Europe, leading to a 45%-fall in the European aluminium premium since the start of 2025 and inflating an outflow of aluminium scrap from the EU to the U.S.
Express Tribune
11-05-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
China buys wheat over crop damage risk
Listen to article Chinese buyers bought between 400,000 and 500,000 metric tons of wheat from Australia and Canada in recent weeks, traders said, as heat threatens to damage crops in China's agricultural heartlands. China is the world's top wheat grower and also imports large amounts of grain when domestic supply falls short of demand. Earlier this week, Henan province, which grows about a third of China's crop, issued a risk warning as hot, dry weather threatened the wheat growing in its fields. Chinese buyers have purchased four or five 55,000-ton shipments of wheat from Australia for delivery in July or August and around 200,000 tons from Canada, sources at two major trading firms in Australia said. The wheat is of milling quality. The bookings from Australia were the first made by China from the country since last year, said one of the traders. Cofco, the state-owned Chinese firm that handles most of the country's wheat imports, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. China has in recent years been one of the world's biggest wheat importers, buying in around 11 million tons worth $3.5 billion in 2024. Australia and Canada are typically its biggest suppliers. But shipments slowed sharply after China reaped large wheat and corn harvests last year and have since remained low. China delayed or redirected shipments from Australia earlier this year and imported less than a million tons of wheat in the seven months to March 31, Chinese customs data accessed through Trade Data Monitor show. One of the sources said their company had lowered its forecast of Chinese 2025 wheat production by around 5 million tons but there was no guarantee that more purchases would follow because China has large wheat inventories. "China is well self-sufficient in feed grains this crop year with heavy stocks," said Rod Baker, an analyst at Australian Crop Forecasters in Perth, adding that faltering economic growth in China was also depressing demand for grains. Talk of Canadian wheat sales to China has echoed around agricultural business circles in Winnipeg, Canada's grain industry capital, according to traders. Few concrete details on the sales have emerged. Chinese buyers would have avoided buying US wheat due to tariffs and the trade war between Washington and Beijing, one trader said. China in the past has been a top destination for US wheat sales. The drop-off in Chinese imports earlier in the current 2024/25 season had contributed to subdued international wheat prices, with benchmark futures in Chicago still near a four-year low touched last July. Along with weather risks to China's upcoming harvest, attractive prices may have lured Chinese importers back into the market as the 2025-26 season approaches, traders said. Chinese importers also booked a large amount of barley, according to traders. Some said that six panamax bulk carriers carrying around 360,000 tons of French or Ukrainian new-crop barley had been sold for delivery in July or August, with others putting the volume much higher at around 1 million tons, also for shipment this summer. Deflation deepens Meanwhile, China's factory-gate prices posted the steepest drop in six months in April while consumer prices fell for a third month, underlining the need for more stimulus as policymakers grapple with the economic toll from a trade war with the United States. A prolonged housing market downturn, high household debt and job insecurity have hampered investment and consumer spending, keeping deflationary pressures alive. Now, the economy is also facing increasing external risks from trade barriers. However, there are hopes for a de-escalation of tensions as US-China trade talks begin in Switzerland on Saturday. The Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 2.7% in April year-on-year, worse than a 2.5% decline in March but was less than economists' forecast for a 2.8% fall, National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Saturday. "China still faces persistent deflationary pressure," said Zhiwei Zhang, Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. "The pressure may rise in coming months as exports will likely weaken." "Even if China and the US can make progress and cut tariffs in trade negotiations, tariffs are unlikely to go back to the level before April," Zhang added. "More proactive fiscal policy is necessary to boost domestic demand and address the deflation problem."
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Exclusive-China buys Canadian, Australian wheat as heat hits crop, traders say
By Michael Hogan, Peter Hobson and Gus Trompiz HAMBURG/CANBERRA/PARIS (Reuters) -Chinese buyers bought between 400,000 and 500,000 metric tons of wheat from Australia and Canada in recent weeks, traders said, as heat threatens to damage crops in China's agricultural heartlands. China is the world's top wheat grower and also imports large amounts of grain when domestic supply falls short of demand. Earlier this week, Henan province, which grows about a third of China's crop, issued a risk warning as hot, dry weather threatened the wheat growing in its fields. Chinese buyers have purchased four or five 55,000-ton shipments of wheat from Australia for delivery in July or August and around 200,000 tons from Canada, sources at two major trading firms in Australia said. The wheat is of milling quality. The bookings from Australia were the first made by China from the country since last year, said one of the traders. COFCO, the state-owned Chinese firm that handles most of the country's wheat imports, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. China has in recent years been one of the world's biggest wheat importers, buying in around 11 million tons worth $3.5 billion in 2024. Australia and Canada are typically its biggest suppliers. But shipments slowed sharply after China reaped large wheat and corn harvests last year and have since remained low. China delayed or redirected shipments from Australia earlier this year and imported less than a million tons of wheat in the seven months to March 31, Chinese customs data accessed through Trade Data Monitor show. One of the sources said their company had lowered its forecast of Chinese 2025 wheat production by around 5 million tons but there was no guarantee that more purchases would follow because China has large wheat inventories. "China is well self-sufficient in feed grains this crop year with heavy stocks," said Rod Baker, an analyst at Australian Crop Forecasters in Perth, adding that faltering economic growth in China was also depressing demand for grains. Talk of Canadian wheat sales to China has echoed around agricultural business circles in Winnipeg, Canada's grain industry capital, according to traders. Few concrete details on the sales have emerged. Chinese buyers would have avoided buying U.S. wheat due to tariffs and the trade war between Washington and Beijing, one trader said. China in the past has been a top destination for U.S. wheat sales. The drop-off in Chinese imports earlier in the current 2024/25 season had contributed to subdued international wheat prices, with benchmark futures in Chicago still near a four-year low touched last July. Along with weather risks to China's upcoming harvest, attractive prices may have lured Chinese importers back into the market as the 2025/26 season approaches, traders said. BARLEY Chinese importers also booked a large amount of barley, according to traders. Some said that six panamax bulk carriers carrying around 360,000 tons of French or Ukrainian new-crop barley had been sold for delivery in July or August, with others putting the volume much higher at around 1 million tons, also for shipment this summer. "Chinese wheat and barley import buying has been very quiet in the past year and these are the first major deals I have seen in many months," a German trader said. Feed barley purchases with optional origin were from Ukraine or France. The deals were done at a price of around $250-$254 a tonne delivered to China, one trader said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Times
30-04-2025
- Business
- Business Times
South-east Asia's chip and solar exports to US plunge – the worst may be yet to come
[SINGAPORE] The US has slashed its semiconductor imports from South-east Asia, with shipments from Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia plunging over the past year amid a widening crackdown on trade circumvention, based on three-year trade data up to February 2025. Shipments are expected to slump further with the recently unveiled tariffs of up to 3,521 per cent on solar imports, threatening to further squeeze the four South-east Asian countries – once among the United States' top suppliers. The best-case scenario for the Asean countries would be exporting more to the European Union as Europe builds up its technology ecosystem. They could also increase flows to China as demand for chips to power the artificial intelligence (AI) boom continues to grow. Meanwhile, with details of the tariffs on chips yet to be announced as US probes semiconductor imports, analysts warn that the region must intensify efforts to diversify its markets. Up to February Between March 2024 and February 2025, US imports of semiconductor products, including solar panels and cells, fell by 51 per cent from Cambodia, 39 per cent from Thailand, 22 per cent from Malaysia, and 8 per cent from Vietnam, based on US import data from Trade Data Monitor, seen by The Business Times. Vietnam – long the US' largest supplier – retains its top spot with a 24 per cent market share. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam supplied more than 80 per cent of US solar photovoltaic imports in the first half of 2024. This fell significantly after the Biden administration allowed a two-year waiver on duties for some solar components to expire in June 2024, while concurrently promoting US' domestic solar manufacturing capabilities. This, in addition to the preliminary levels of tariffs on the four countries that have been in force since last October, has deterred US imports. A longstanding concern of US solar manufacturers has been the excessively cheap solar imports from Chinese-owned manufacturers in South-east Asia that circumvented the US tariffs imposed on Chinese-made solar components, highlighted OCBC's environmental, social and governance analyst Ong Shu Yi in a note last Thursday (Apr 24). The Trump administration finalised new anti-dumping duty and countervailing duty (CVD) rates in April on most solar imports from the four major suppliers in Asean, setting CVD rates as high as 3,403.96 per cent for solar imports from Cambodia. Indonesia and Laos buck the decline but their advantage may not last Amid the slump in Asean, only Indonesia and Laos bucked the trend, recording increases in US demand for semiconductor and solar-related components from the region. This reflected 'additional capacity' which US importers were able to tap on to meet orders that were originally slated for the four tariffed countries, noted Sheana Yue, economist at Oxford Economics. It could be led by Chinese-owned solar manufacturers that want to export to the US relocating to Indonesia and Laos, which are among the countries not currently subject to the duties. However, as the US government continues scrutinising the manufacturers to see if they originate in China, this approach might not be a long-term solution, warned market watchers. 'For any other country that sees an uptick in exports to the US in solar panels, Washington will suspect transhipment,' said Alexander Capri, senior lecturer at the National University of Singapore (NUS) Business School. 'Washington will continue to scrutinise them for 'Made-by-China' operations, meaning China has shifted assembly but all core components and value are of China-origin, and, thus, they will be at risk for escalating tariffs,' Capri added. Continued chilling effect on Asean exports The anti-dumping investigation and subsequent tariffs highlight Washington's push to raise domestic semiconductor output and curb reliance on foreign supplies. Overall, US imports of semiconductor-related goods from all trading partners dropped 21 per cent year on year between March 2024 and February 2025, based on the data from Trade Data Monitor. Even Singapore – though not a key supplier of electronic materials – was not spared, with its exports to the US falling by 60 per cent over the same period. The newly implemented tariffs on solar components will continue to have a chilling effect on exports from Asean countries, noted Capri. What's next for Asean? South-east Asia has benefited from supply-chain diversification in recent years, such as amid businesses' China-plus-one strategy. However, the Asean countries, as the China-plus-one destinations, are subject to higher duty rates if they are seen as proxy export-platforms for Chinese-made products. 'To escape this tariff trap, Asean countries would need to source more inputs such as materials and components locally,' said NUS' Capri, adding that Asean value chains could partake in supply-chain decoupling from China to India. '(The Asean countries) could also see increased flows to the EU, as Europe looks to kickstart its own regional technology ecosystem,' he noted. Atul Chandna, EY Asia-Pacific supply chain leader, said that companies should look at adopting multi-country sourcing strategies within the region, combining operations across markets to manage future disruptions and de-risk their supply chains. He highlighted that South-east Asia, while facing challenges in scaling up high-end semiconductor fabrication capacity, would risk losing future investments in high-value semiconductor, data centre, and clean energy projects, as industry players seek out more tariff-stable operating environments. 'The window for South-east Asia to reposition itself as an innovation and advanced manufacturing hub is narrow, and those who delay transformation and investment in localised capabilities risk being left behind in the next wave of global supply chain shifts,' he added. Oxford Economic's Yue, shared the notion that semiconductor companies may choose to set up new facilities in the US or 'safer' economies in Latin America. 'This would erode Asean's share in the global market in the long term,' she said, forecasting a slowdown in investment growth in Asean from 5 per cent in 2024 to 3.7 per cent in 2025 amid trade tensions. However, for the high-end semiconductor facilities, especially those producing AI chips in the region, the future is not as bleak. Yue noted that such facilities could continue to operate for sales to China where demand for AI chips is also growing. Additionally, she said, Asean's role in the global semiconductor supply chain will not be quickly replaced, given that a sizeable share of AI chip imports to the US are still produced within the region. 'These would typically require high-end and expensive equipment and facilities which are not easily or cheaply relocated between geographies and will take several years to build.'
Yahoo
29-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Australia's surge in wine exports to China begins to slow
By Peter Hobson CANBERRA (Reuters) -Australia's wine export boom to China that followed an improvement in relations between the two countries is showing signs of slowing, amid a broader global decline in the number of bottles headed to the world's second-largest economy. China is the Australian wine industry's most lucrative overseas market but its consumption of wine is falling sharply, amid a more gradual decline worldwide. Beijing's lifting of tariffs on March 29 last year triggered a surge in exports. Australia shipped just over A$1 billion ($640 million) of wine to China in the 12 months to March 31 this year, data from industry body Wine Australia show. That amount is just short of the record A$1.15 billion exported in the year to March 31, 2020 and follows a period of more than three years during which trade restrictions were in place and Australia shipped negligible amounts of wine to China. However, exports have slowed after the initial rush, totalling A$126 million in the first three months of 2025, the least for any January-to-March quarter since 2016. The influx of bottles from Australia in 2024 led to the first annual increase in China's wine imports since 2018, Chinese customs figures accessed using Trade Data Monitor show. China's imports from other nations such as France, Chile and Italy have more than halved since 2018 and continue to trend lower. "Australia has performed exceptionally well to get to a billion dollars," said Peter Bailey, market insights manager at Wine Australia. "There definitely has been a growth for Australia is not assured." China's trade barriers – imposed during a political spat between Beijing and Canberra in November 2020 – worsened Australia's wine glut, leading to huge inventories, a plunge in grape prices and a purge of vineyards. Wine Australia said China will not solve the oversupply problem as it is importing a smaller number of pricier bottles than before. Adding to those problems, Australia's wine exports to the rest of the world fell in the 12 months to March 31, it said. Bailey said Australia could benefit from Chinese tariffs on the United States, which will likely halt U.S. wine exports to China worth around $50 million a year, and from Canada's shift away from U.S. wine, but it was too early to know for sure. ($1 = 1.5601 Australian dollars)
