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The Star
21-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
Asian investors trim US assets amid weak dollar, but full pullback ‘difficult'
Asian investors have trimmed their incremental allocations to US equities as the dollar weakened, but reducing their overall exposure to US assets remains difficult, according to a recent Morgan Stanley report. The proportion of US assets in Asia's securities portfolios fell by 0.7 percentage points, to 40.8 per cent in the first quarter from a peak of 41.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, the highest level since late 2017, the report said. The pullback was pronounced in China, where the share of US assets in portfolio investments declined by about 16 percentage points to 28 per cent in March this year from December 2017. However, the report said reducing Asia's overall stockpile of US assets was not easy given the current account surpluses of the region's economies, which were at a record high of US$1.1 trillion in the first quarter. Economies with surplus capital often invest in US financial markets, which are the world's largest and most liquid, according to the Cato Institute, a US-based think tank. 'Asia's gross international investment position [in US stocks] will continue to grow,' Morgan Stanley analysts wrote. 'The lack of large and liquid alternatives means that it would be difficult for Asia to reduce its holdings of US assets.' While China's holdings of US assets dropped to US$1.3 trillion this year from their 2013 peak of US$1.8 trillion, the rest of Asia continued to increase its exposure to US assets to a new high of US$7.2 trillion in the first quarter. The weakening of the US dollar was one reason Asian investors were reconsidering their allocations to US assets. Analysts remain bearish on the greenback, expecting further weakening amid high US fiscal deficits, a widening current account gap, and the drag from tariffs on the US economic outlook. The US dollar index, a benchmark gauging the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies, dropped to 98 on Tuesday, down nearly 6 per cent over the past 12 months, according to Trading Economics, an online financial data provider. In April, the Trump administration imposed a minimum 10 per cent tariff on imports from many countries. China was among those most affected, with Beijing's retaliatory tariffs reaching as high as 125 per cent before both sides agreed to ease tensions. In May, Beijing and Washington reached an agreement to implement a 90-day pause on tariffs on each other's goods, which was expected to end in August. Both countries' leaders were expected to re-enter tariff negotiations next month. - South China Morning Post
The Citizen
19-07-2025
- Business
- The Citizen
How can you save when you use 75% of your income to pay debts?
You would excuse South African consumers for being cynical about saving given that their money runs out before the month does. Most consumers are cynical about National Savings Month in July, asking how they can even begin to think about saving when they spend 75% of their income to repay debts which are usually the result of borrowing just to survive. According to the 2025 1Life Generational Debt Survey, only 41% of employed South Africans manage to save each month and even those who do are often not saving nearly enough to build financial security. A further 36% say they simply do not earn enough to save at all. The situation is just as concerning among middle- to higher-income earners, as DebtBusters reports that individuals earning R5 000 or less are using 75% of their income to service debt. People earning R35 000 or more are not much better off, spending 74% of their income on debt repayments. 'Too many South Africans are overwhelmed by debt and living paycheque to paycheque, but no matter your income level, there are real, practical steps you can take to regain control, build healthier money habits and start working towards long-term financial stability,' Hayley Parry, money coach and facilitator at 1Life's Truth About Money, says. ALSO READ: Savings month: How to save like a millionaire – even if you are not one yet Stop telling consumers they must save and show them how to Tando Ngibe, senior manager at Budget Insurance, says we must move beyond simply telling people to save and start showing them how. 'Budgeting does not have to be complicated. Even small changes can create breathing room and protect you from the financial shocks that so often derail progress. It is about building a new culture of money awareness and resilience.' Insights from the 2025 1Life Generational Debt Survey paint a sobering picture of the nation's financial health: 22% of respondents admit that past financial decisions have left them in debt 34% are carrying inherited debt passed on by previous generations 53% still believe they can build generational wealth, even with a modest income. Separate research from Trading Economics highlights just how strained household budgets are. South Africa's household savings rate dropped to -1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from -1.0% in the third quarter, according to Trading Economics. Parry and Ngibe agree that while the data is sobering, it is not the end of the story. ALSO READ: Savings month: Here's how to build your financial future brick by brick Stop judging consumers for not saving and equip them to Parry says they are not there to judge, but to equip. 'Financial freedom starts with knowledge and consistent action. Even if your starting point is deep in debt, there is always a way forward and platforms like 1Life's Truth About Money, which offers free courses tailored to different life stages, are designed to help South Africans take that first step. 'The choices we make today do not just affect our own futures; they have the power to break cycles of inherited debt and create lasting financial security for the next generation.' Ngibe echoes this sentiment, saying it is time to demystify money. 'Savings Month is not just about setting aside cash but about shifting mindsets, breaking generational cycles and making sure every rand works as hard as you do. With the right tools, support and commitment, financial resilience is possible.' They say this National Savings Month, the message is clear: it is never too early or too late to take back control of your money, and you do not have to do it alone.
AllAfrica
18-07-2025
- Business
- AllAfrica
The corporate takeover of American housing
The 2025 US housing market presents a paradox. Home sales are down, and there are far more sellers than buyers, yet prices continue to hit record highs. Over the past decade, home values have surged nationwide, including in once-affordable Sunbelt cities. Policymakers appear ill-equipped to respond to the situation. In a July 2025 interview with the New York Times, 16 US mayors listed housing as one of their top concerns. During her 2024 presidential campaign, former Vice President Kamala Harris proposed tax credits for first-time buyers to alleviate the crisis, while President Donald Trump has renewed calls for interest rate cuts to help lower mortgage rates. Homeownership remains central to the American dream, and US homeownership rates have typically hovered around 65% 'from 1965 until 2025,' according to Trading Economics. But the high-water mark came in 2004 when it reached 69%, and despite a temporary Covid-19-era spike, the rate has continued to inch downward. Worryingly, even among those who own homes, equity is shrinking. Many homeowners own less than half of their property's value today, with the balance tied up in debt. Many of the pressures are structural. Construction costs have soared, labor is in short supply and tariffs have raised the price of materials. Zoning laws, tax regimes, and anti-density regulations have stifled urban growth, while sprawling development is hitting geographic and environmental limits. Mortgage rates remain high, and the national housing shortfall, now estimated to be more than 4.5 million, continues to worsen. But the crisis has opened the door for new kinds of investors. A growing cast of corporate actors is moving into residential real estate, lured by the prospect of stable returns in a tightening market. Though they still own a minority of US housing, these firms are often concentrated in key regions and markets. Increasingly capable of setting the terms of access to housing, their rising influence threatens to reverse the post-World War II surge in widespread homeownership. Large-scale corporate ownership of homes and influence over rent prices is a relatively recent development. Before 2008, most institutional investors stuck to apartment buildings and urban areas, as single-family homes were seen as too dispersed and costly to manage. That changed after the housing crash, when a wave of foreclosures flooded the market, leading to the availability of deeply discounted homes in the suburbs. 'In the decade since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, major institutional financial actors have invested heavily in US single-family housing, acquiring anywhere up to three hundred thousand houses, and then letting them out,' stated a 2021 article in Sage Journals. In 2012, government-backed mortgage giant Fannie Mae began selling thousands of foreclosed homes in bulk to investors, showing single-family housing could be bought, held, and profited from at scale. At the same time, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac expanded support for institutional buyers through favorable financing terms and lower rates. Homebuilding, meanwhile, had collapsed, and a supply shortage began to take hold. 'The crash badly hurt a variety of sectors, but it simply devastated the home construction industry, given that the crisis was directly centered there. … with a glut of foreclosures on the market and prices falling fast, America simply stopped building homes. New private home starts plummeted by almost 80% to the lowest level since 1959,' according to a 2024 article in the American Prospect. Investor interest surged as home prices recovered in the early 2010s. This era brought record-low interest rates and trillions in financial stimulus from the Federal Reserve and government, which helped stabilize the economy and flooded capital markets. With cheap borrowing and rising prices, housing became an attractive asset. The Covid-19 pandemic accelerated this trend. Remote work drove people from cities to suburbs, while eviction moratoriums pushed many small landlords to sell, opening the door for larger buyers. Digital platforms made it easier to browse, purchase, and manage properties remotely. Alongside traditional banks, a wide range of financial firms and platforms have been profiting from rising demand and tightening supply. Blackstone, one of the world's largest private equity firms, became a pioneer in large-scale housing acquisitions after 2008. In 2012, it helped launch Invitation Homes, now the largest owner of single-family rentals in the US. Though Blackstone sold its stake in 2019, it reentered the market by acquiring Canadian real estate firm Tricon Residential in 2024, and sold 3,000 homes that year to UK's largest pension fund for approximately US$550 million, showcasing its global influence in housing. Other major firms have followed suit. Progress Residential, backed by Pretium Partners, has come under fire for evictions, maintenance failures, and excessive fees. Amherst Holdings was profiled in Fortune in 2019 for using early predictive algorithms to identify and acquire homes, and advances in AI have only made this process more efficient. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS), originally designed in the 1960s to give everyday investors access to real estate profits, are now largely dominated by major institutional firms like BlackRock, Vanguard and private equity funds. Invitation Homes agreed to pay $48 million to the Federal Trade Commission in 2024 for junk fees, unfairly holding security deposits, failing to inspect homes, and using improper eviction tactics. Professor Desiree Fields, in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in 2021, meanwhile, singled out Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent as 'particularly vocal about the use of extraneous fees to increase total revenue,' stated a 2022 article in the Charlotte Observer. Corporate homebuying continues to climb. Institutional investors bought 15% of US homes for sale in the first quarter of 2021, which climbed to nearly 27% by early 2025. In some markets, the footprint is even larger: during the third quarter of 2024, investors accounted for 44% of all home flips. Some firms, like Rise48 Equity, focus on acquiring and renovating large multifamily buildings to raise rental income and property value. Others, like Amherst Holdings, are beginning to enter the rent-flipping space as part of a larger expansion policy. Unlike smaller flippers who tend to cash out quickly, these companies renovate and hold properties long term. A growing number of companies are focusing on build-to-rent subdivisions, with entire neighborhoods constructed specifically for rentals. No single company dominates nationally, but corporate influence is unmistakable in certain cities. In Atlanta, private equity owns more than 30% of single-family rental properties, with corporate ownership disproportionately affecting Black neighborhoods, intensifying housing insecurity and displacement. Large firms enjoy several structural advantages. They access cheaper institutional financing, often pay in cash, and benefit from early access to listings and local policy influence. Firms can use creative financing tools, like combining many homes into a single investment package and using the expected rent payments as collateral to borrow more money. Bulk purchases allow them to cut costs on repairs, insurance, and maintenance, while builders are more inclined to sell homes in large blocks at a discount rather than wait for individual buyers, helping firms to avoid bidding wars. Unlike individual homeowners who often sell for financial reasons, institutional landlords can hold assets for years and sell only when market conditions are favorable. Tax policies further tilt the scales. While individual sellers pay capital gains taxes on home sales, corporate buyers can use the 1031 exchange to defer taxes by reinvesting profits into like-kind properties, pushing tax burdens into the future. Rental property owners also get tax depreciation benefits, which allow them to deduct part of the building's value each year, reducing their taxes, which compound over time. Big Tech, with similar vast financial resources, has also become essential to the expansion of corporate housing. It enables investors to scale up, manage properties remotely, and influence markets and consumers to their advantage. One of the most influential tools is YieldStar, a rent pricing software developed by RealPage, purchased by private equity firm Thoma Bravo in 2021. RealPage gathers extensive rental data from participating landlords and uses algorithms to recommend optimal prices. Landlords who don't use the technology are often left at a disadvantage. Many property managers adopt these recommendations automatically, often under performance monitoring that discourages underpricing or offering tenant concessions. In cities like Seattle, where a handful of property managers control large shares of the market, RealPage's pricing influence can be especially powerful. A ProPublica investigation found that in one neighborhood, 70% of apartments were handled by 10 firms, all using RealPage software. Recommendations by the software included accepting lower occupancy rates if it leads to higher overall rent revenue. Critics argue that RealPage enables coordinated 'rent-setting,' effectively encouraging landlords to behave like a cartel. The US Justice Department opened a lawsuit against the company in 2024 for causing harm to American renters by using its 'algorithmic pricing software.' The investigation remains ongoing. At the same time, short-term rental platforms like Airbnb have also reshaped housing. With vast reach and deep legal resources, Airbnb has helped normalize rental conversions and contributed to higher rents in many cities. In 2025, the New York Post reported that the company funded $1 million to alleged grassroots groups, such as Communities for Homeowner Choice, to oppose a New York City law requiring hosts to be present during guest stays. It has also backed tax battles and filed lawsuits across the US, challenging occupancy taxes and other local regulations, costing cities millions in legal fees. In both long- and short-term markets, tech platforms have made large-scale rental operations possible. Through pricing tools, political lobbying, and data leverage, housing is emerging as a more managed commodity. As corporate consolidation deepens and larger landlords become more integrated with tech platforms, these companies, and increasingly the property owners themselves, will exert even greater control over rent markets with less transparency or oversight. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, including the US, now have some of the lowest home ownership rates in the world, and the rise of institutional landlords will drive those numbers lower. The core problem remains supply, with Wall Street firms targeting homes precisely because there's a shortage—something they openly acknowledge and tout to investors as a profit opportunity. The city of Austin is a rare success story. After peaking at $550,000 in May 2022, median home prices fell to $409,000 by January 2025, and indicators point to a continual downward trend. The key difference has been that Austin has built more affordable housing, providing incentives to ease zoning laws. Homeownership remains most common in rural areas, while urban centers have been hardest hit by rising investor activity and housing scarcity. Public involvement is critical to reducing the problem. Landlord interests, represented by groups like the National Multifamily Housing Council, carry enormous influence, while tenants rely on thinner support networks like the National Low Income Housing Coalition. Federal agencies like the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Federal Housing Finance Agency play a role, but lag behind corporate influence. In comparison, Blackstone has faced greater resistance in European countries with stronger tenant protections and better-organized renters' movements. Policies like taxing the unimproved value of land could encourage development and discourage speculation on vacant or underused properties. Without effective measures, the concentration of land in private hands will only grow, whether through corporate landlords, billionaires like Bill Gates (who owns 250,000 acres spread out over 17 states), or creeping attempts to privatize public land. At stake is not just affordability but also whether the public retains any real claim to land and housing or surrenders it entirely to private capital. John P Ruehl is an Australian-American journalist living in Washington, DC, and a world affairs correspondent for the Independent Media Institute . He is a contributor to several foreign affairs publications, and his book 'Budget Superpower: How Russia Challenges the West With an Economy Smaller Than Texas'' was published in December 2022. This article was produced by Economy for All , a project of the Independent Media Institute, and is republished with kind permission.
Scoop
12-07-2025
- Business
- Scoop
The Corporate Takeover Of Housing
The 2025 U.S. housing market presents a paradox. Home sales are down, and there are far more sellers than buyers, yet prices continue to hit record highs. Over the past decade, home values have surged nationwide, including in once-affordable Sunbelt cities. Policymakers appear ill-equipped to respond to the situation. In a July 2025 interview with the New York Times, 16 U.S. mayors listed housing as one of their top concerns. During her 2024 presidential campaign, former Vice President Kamala Harris proposed tax credits for first-time buyers to alleviate the crisis, while President Donald Trump has renewed calls for interest rate cuts to help lower mortgage rates. Homeownership remains central to the American dream, and U.S. homeownership rates have typically hovered around 65 percent 'from 1965 until 2025,' according to Trading Economics. But the high-water mark came in 2004 when it reached 69 percent, and despite a temporary COVID-19-era spike, the rate has continued to inch downward. Worryingly, even among those who own homes, equity is shrinking. Many homeowners own less than half of their property's value today, with the balance tied up in debt. Many of the pressures are structural. Construction costs have soared, labor is in short supply, and tariffs have raised the price of materials. Zoning laws, tax regimes, and anti-density regulations have stifled urban growth, while sprawling development is hitting geographic and environmental limits. Mortgage rates remain high, and the national housing shortfall, now estimated to be more than 4.5 million, continues to worsen. But the crisis has opened the door for new kinds of investors. A growing cast of corporate actors is moving into residential real estate, lured by the prospect of stable returns in a tightening market. Though they still own a minority of U.S. housing, these firms are often concentrated in key regions and markets. Increasingly capable of setting the terms of access to housing, their rising influence threatens to reverse the post-World War II surge in widespread homeownership. Buildup Large-scale corporate ownership of homes and influence over rent prices is a relatively recent development. Before 2008, most institutional investors stuck to apartment buildings and urban areas, as single-family homes were seen as too dispersed and costly to manage. That changed after the housing crash, when a wave of foreclosures flooded the market, leading to the availability of deeply discounted homes in the suburbs. 'In the decade since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, major institutional financial actors have invested heavily in U.S. single-family housing, acquiring anywhere up to three hundred thousand houses, and then letting them out,' stated a 2021 article in Sage Journals. In 2012, government-backed mortgage giant Fannie Mae began selling thousands of foreclosed homes in bulk to investors, showing single-family housing could be bought, held, and profited from at scale. At the same time, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac expanded support for institutional buyers through favorable financing terms and lower rates. Homebuilding, meanwhile, had collapsed, and a supply shortage began to take hold. 'The crash badly hurt a variety of sectors, but it simply devastated the home construction industry, given that the crisis was directly centered there. … with a glut of foreclosures on the market and prices falling fast, America simply stopped building homes. New private home starts plummeted by almost 80 percent to the lowest level since 1959,' according to a 2024 article in the American Prospect. Investor interest surged as home prices recovered in the early 2010s. This era brought record-low interest rates and trillions in financial stimulus from the Federal Reserve and government, which helped stabilise the economy and flooded capital markets. With cheap borrowing and rising prices, housing became an attractive asset. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this trend. Remote work drove people from cities to suburbs, while eviction moratoriums pushed many small landlords to sell, opening the door for larger buyers. Digital platforms made it easier to browse, purchase, and manage properties remotely. Alongside traditional banks, a wide range of financial firms and platforms have been profiting from rising demand and tightening supply. Wall Street Landlords Blackstone, one of the world's largest private equity firms, became a pioneer in large-scale housing acquisitions after 2008. In 2012, it helped launch Invitation Homes, now the largest owner of single-family rentals in the U.S. Though Blackstone sold its stake in 2019, it reentered the market by acquiring Canadian real estate firm Tricon Residential in 2024, and sold 3,000 homes that year to UK's largest pension fund for approximately $550 million, showcasing its global influence in housing. Other major firms have followed suit. Progress Residential, backed by Pretium Partners, has come under fire for evictions, maintenance failures, and excessive fees. Amherst Holdings was profiled in Fortune in 2019 for using early predictive algorithms to identify and acquire homes, and advances in AI have only made this process more efficient. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS), originally designed in the 1960s to give everyday investors access to real estate profits, are now largely dominated by major institutional firms like BlackRock, Vanguard, and private equity funds. Invitation Homes agreed to pay $48 million to the Federal Trade Commission in 2024 for junk fees, unfairly holding security deposits, failing to inspect homes, and using improper eviction tactics. Professor Desiree Fields, in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in 2021, meanwhile, singled out Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent as 'particularly vocal about the use of extraneous fees to increase total revenue,' stated a 2022 article in the Charlotte Observer. Corporate homebuying continues to climb. Institutional investors bought 15 percent of U.S. homes for sale in the first quarter of 2021, which climbed to nearly 27 percent by early 2025. In some markets, the footprint is even larger: during the third quarter of 2024, investors accounted for 44 percent of all home flips. Some firms, like Rise48 Equity, focus on acquiring and renovating large multifamily buildings to raise rental income and property value. Others, like Amherst Holdings, are beginning to enter the rent-flipping space as part of a larger expansion policy. Unlike smaller flippers who tend to cash out quickly, these companies renovate and hold properties long term. A growing number of companies are focusing on build-to-rent subdivisions, with entire neighborhoods constructed specifically for rentals. No single company dominates nationally, but corporate influence is unmistakable in certain cities. In Atlanta, private equity owns more than 30 percent of single-family rental properties, with corporate ownership disproportionately affecting Black neighborhoods, intensifying housing insecurity and displacement. Large firms enjoy several structural advantages. They access cheaper institutional financing, often pay in cash, and benefit from early access to listings and local policy influence. Firms can use creative financing tools, like combining many homes into a single investment package and using the expected rent payments as collateral to borrow more money. Bulk purchases allow them to cut costs on repairs, insurance, and maintenance, while builders are more inclined to sell homes in large blocks at a discount rather than wait for individual buyers, helping firms to avoid bidding wars. Unlike individual homeowners who often sell for financial reasons, institutional landlords can hold assets for years and sell only when market conditions are favorable. Tax policies further tilt the scales. While individual sellers pay capital gains taxes on home sales, corporate buyers can use the 1031 exchange to defer taxes by reinvesting profits into like-kind properties, pushing tax burdens into the future. Rental property owners also get tax depreciation benefits, which allow them to deduct part of the building's value each year, reducing their taxes, which compound over time. Tech Big Tech, with similar vast financial resources, has also become essential to the expansion of corporate housing. It enables investors to scale up, manage properties remotely, and influence markets and consumers to their advantage. One of the most influential tools is YieldStar, a rent pricing software developed by RealPage, purchased by private equity firm Thoma Bravo in 2021. RealPage gathers extensive rental data from participating landlords and uses algorithms to recommend optimal prices. Landlords who don't use the technology are often left at a disadvantage. Many property managers adopt these recommendations automatically, often under performance monitoring that discourages underpricing or offering tenant concessions. In cities like Seattle, where a handful of property managers control large shares of the market, RealPage's pricing influence can be especially powerful. A ProPublica investigation found that in one neighborhood, 70 percent of apartments were handled by 10 firms, all using RealPage software. Recommendations by the software included accepting lower occupancy rates if it leads to higher overall rent revenue. Critics argue that RealPage enables coordinated 'rent-setting,' effectively encouraging landlords to behave like a cartel. The U.S. Justice Department opened a lawsuit against the company in 2024 for causing harm to American renters by using its 'algorithmic pricing software.' The investigation remains ongoing. At the same time, short-term rental platforms like Airbnb have also reshaped housing. With vast reach and deep legal resources, Airbnb has helped normalize rental conversions and contributed to higher rents in many cities. In 2025, the New York Post reported that the company funded $1 million to alleged grassroots groups, such as Communities for Homeowner Choice, to oppose a New York City law requiring hosts to be present during guest stays. It has also backed tax battles and filed lawsuits across the U.S., challenging occupancy taxes and other local regulations, costing cities millions in legal fees. In both long- and short-term markets, tech platforms have made large-scale rental operations possible. Through pricing tools, political lobbying, and data leverage, housing is emerging as a more managed commodity. As corporate consolidation deepens and larger landlords become more integrated with tech platforms, these companies, and increasingly the property owners themselves, will exert even greater control over rent markets with less transparency or oversight. Addressing the Issue Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, including the U.S., now have some of the lowest home ownership rates in the world, and the rise of institutional landlords will drive those numbers lower. The core problem remains supply, with Wall Street firms targeting homes precisely because there's a shortage—something they openly acknowledge and tout to investors as a profit opportunity. The city of Austin is a rare success story. After peaking at $550,000 in May 2022, median home prices fell to $409,000 by January 2025, and indicators point to a continual downward trend. The key difference has been that Austin has built more affordable housing, providing incentives to ease zoning laws. Homeownership remains most common in rural areas, while urban centers have been hardest hit by rising investor activity and housing scarcity. Public involvement is critical to reducing the problem. Landlord interests, represented by groups like the National Multifamily Housing Council, carry enormous influence, while tenants rely on thinner support networks like the National Low Income Housing Coalition. Federal agencies like the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Federal Housing Finance Agency play a role, but lag behind corporate influence. In comparison, Blackstone has faced greater resistance in European countries with stronger tenant protections and better-organised renters' movements. Policies like taxing the unimproved value of land could encourage development and discourage speculation on vacant or underused properties. Without effective measures, the concentration of land in private hands will only grow, whether through corporate landlords, billionaires like Bill Gates (who owns 250,000 acres spread out over 17 states), or creeping attempts to privatize public land. At stake is not just affordability but also whether the public retains any real claim to land and housing or surrenders it entirely to private capital.
Yahoo
07-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Should I lock in a 5.38% yield for 30 years of passive income?
UK 30-year government bonds currently come with a 5.38% yield. With the FTSE 100 offering a dividend yield of 3.36%, that could be interesting for investors looking for long-term passive income. While bonds are relatively low-risk investments (the chances of the UK government not paying its debts are pretty remote) there's a catch. The annual return can't go up over time – and that's a concern. At today's prices, a £10,000 investment in 30-year UK government bonds is set to return £538 per year. For context, this is around eight times what investors could have earned five years ago. Source: Trading Economics One issue with bonds, however, is inflation. And there are a couple of reasons why this is important. The first is that rising prices typically result in higher interest rates, which cause the value of long-term bonds to fall. So if rates rise, today's 30-year bond might be worth less in the future. From an income perspective, this is the smaller issue. Whatever happens in the markets, the bond matures after 30 years and – barring something extreme – investors get their money back. The bigger issue is the effect on real returns. Over the last three decades, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) has increased by 145.7%, which implies an inflation rate of just over 3% per year. If that continues, it could seriously cut into real returns over the next 30 years. Put simply, getting £538 in 2055 would be like getting £219 today – and that's an issue for passive income investors. An alternative approach to passive income involves the stock market. That allows investors to buy ownership stakes in companies and receive a share of the profits in the form of dividends. The obvious risk with this is that earnings are much more likely to go down than bonds. But with the best businesses, there's also a chance their net income rises faster than inflation. Unilever (LSE:ULVR) is a good example. Over the last decade, the firm's dividend growth has outpaced the CPI, leading to better results for investors, even accounting for inflation. There is, however, no guarantee of this continuing. One of the risks with Unilever is that it's easy for people to change to other products, meaning a constant battle to stay ahead of competitors. The company, however, has two key strengths when it comes to meeting this challenge. The first is its brand portfolio, which customers recognise and trust. The second is the firm's vast scale, which allows it to negotiate preferential terms with suppliers and retailers. Together, these make a powerful long-term combination. Unusually high bond yields offer an unusually high passive income return that's very unlikely to disappear in the next three decades. But investors should be careful about locking this in. With a return that can't go up, inflation is a big risk over the long term. By contrast, businesses can – when things go well – increase their dividends over time to offset this threat. Unilever shares have a 3.5% dividend, which is below the 30-year bond. But with scope to grow as inflation cuts into gilt returns, I think investors should consider the stock over the bond. The post Should I lock in a 5.38% yield for 30 years of passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK. More reading 5 Stocks For Trying To Build Wealth After 50 One Top Growth Stock from the Motley Fool Stephen Wright has positions in Unilever. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Unilever. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Motley Fool UK 2025
