6 days ago
- Politics
- Irish Independent
‘Putin wants us to panic.' How Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine
Russian president Vladimir Putin's forces have launched 5,402 drones and missiles against Ukraine so far this month, with the pace of attacks surging sharply in recent weeks, according to figures from Ukraine's air force.
The deadliest single day came on July 9, when Moscow fired 741 drones and missiles. This was followed by other intense barrages, including 623 on July 12 and 550 on July 4.
While the number of strikes dipped mid-month with just 35 reported on July 18 and 64 on July 17, the pace has picked up again over the past week, with 330 weapons fired on Saturday and a further 450 on Sunday.
In June alone, there were five instances where Russia sent over 400 drones and missiles in a night.
Federico Borsari, a Fellow with the Transatlantic Defence and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), has said that the Russian army is likely to have been planning an increase in strikes for at least a year.
'There were already signs that Russia was trying to increase its output in terms of assets and platforms that they could launch against Ukraine in 2024,' he said, adding that the increase in drones is an attempt to make air raids more effective.
'Russia is trying to diversify its strike packages to make them more cost-effective and achieve a scale of destruction sufficient to destroy key military targets such as airfields.'
He added that, for more than three years, Russia was not 'very effective' when it came to 'diminishing the production capacity of Ukraine at the industrial level'. The Russian army had also failed to 'create a sense of panic and fear among the population in order to discredit the government and create the conditions for less efficacy on the front line,' he said.
Mr Borsari continued that Russia had been forced to be more tactical in its aims to increase damage against critical Ukrainian infrastructure.
'Russia is now also trying to focus on more strategic targets such as military enlistment offices,' he said. 'The attempt here is not just to destroy energy plants or other infrastructure, but also to create a sense of panic among the population.
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'So, increasing the psychological effects of this war on the Ukrainian population and at the same time discouraging people from basically going to enlistment offices.'
He said the psychological effects of the strikes could 'diminish the ability of the Ukrainian forces to recruit'.
Earlier this month, the city of Lutsk, in Ukraine's north west, was hit by a Russian drone strike. Lutsk is home to airfields used by the Ukrainian army, with cargo planes and fighter jets routinely flying over it.
Analysis shows that while Moscow is increasing its drone output and ramping up the intensity of its attacks, it does not follow a consistent pattern. On July 8, Russia fired 52 drones at Ukraine, followed by a record 550 the day after. The following day, it fired 322.
Marcel Plichta, a former US Department of Defense analyst, suggested that Russia was staggering its large attacks with an 'on and off days' approach.
'The on day you would have a really big and increasingly a record-breaking attack and then on the off day you would have... like 100 drones or 61 drones,' he explained. 'The benefit to the large attack is, in addition to the fact that it grabs headlines, it's more likely to overwhelm Ukrainian air defence and damage the morale of the Ukrainian population.
'It's worse to try and shoot down 500 drones at once than it is 200 drones over two nights because you suddenly have to prioritise. You have to figure out where they all are and you need to respond to them. That's a much more challenging situation.'
Both analysts added that the escalating aerial strikes indicated a ceasefire wasn't on the cards anytime soon, three years after Mr Putin launched his brutal invasion of the country.
'Russia has demonstrated that they're all in on the Shahed as a platform. Fundamentally they are all in on this idea of mass drone attacks to accompany their missiles,' Mr Plichta said. 'Basically from now until the end of the conflict, you're going to see a growth in the number of Shaheds being used'. He added: 'Ultimately the thing that stops Shaheds is a political end to the conflict, not necessarily a magic weapon that can shoot down interception rate.'
Mr Borsari added: 'It's clear that Russia is not interested in achieving a ceasefire, at least based on the conditions that the US and Ukraine were hoping for.'
