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Turkey and Russia Hold the Keys to Libya's Future
Recent clashes between pro-government militias in Tripoli once again threatened to unravel Libya's tenuous frozen conflict. Yet beyond the headline-grabbing instability, a quieter power struggle is unfolding, one in which Turkey and Russia are emerging as the most consequential actors, with both Ankara and Moscow utilizing the country's stalemate to entrench their own influence. From a domestic perspective, the risk of that frozen conflict heating back up became clear in May, when clashes erupted between rival militias aligned with the Government of National Unity, or GNU, under Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, killing at least eight people. The fighting broke out when a militia known as the 444th Brigade turned on Dbeibah, who relies on a coalition of armed groups to stay in power. Pro-GNU security forces managed to subdue the revolt, but amid the fighting, Abdel Ghani al-Kikli—the leader of the 444th Brigade—was assassinated. Dbeibah announced a 'ceasefire' two days after the fighting began, but anti-GNU protests broke out in the capital, marking one of the largest such demonstrations since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 and further highlighting the fragility of Libya's status quo. Indeed, speculation loomed that forces loyal to Gen. Khalifa Haftar and the House of Representatives, or HoR—a rival government based in Tobruk, in eastern Libya—might also intervene, which would further destabilize the capital. Still, the political and military fault lines that divide Libya are increasingly shaped by Turkey and Russia, who have settled into what analysts characterize as a 'managed rivalry' or 'adversarial collaboration,' as previously seen in other theaters where their interests simultaneously collide and overlap, such as Syria and the South Caucasus. To get more in-depth news and expert analysis on global affairs from WPR, sign up for our free Daily Review newsletter. The two powers backed opposing sides during Libya's civil war, with Turkey supporting the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord until it was superseded by the GNU in March 2021, while Russia backed Haftar's self-styled Libyan National Army, LNA, which fought in support of the Tobruk-based government. Nevertheless, Ankara and Moscow ultimately reached a tacit agreement not to escalate the conflict, despite deepening their economic and military engagement with their respective camps. Turkey's military intervention in 2020 decisively shifted the balance in Libya's civil war, repelling an offensive on Tripoli launched by Haftar in April 2019 and setting the stage for the United Nations-brokered ceasefire that ended the fighting between the Tripoli and Tobruk governments later that year. Since then, Turkey has remained the GNU's key patron, supplying military equipment such as Turkish-made armored vehicles, drones, air defense systems and artillery. The Turkish parliament has continued to renew the military mandate for its forces in Libya, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan citing risks to Turkish interests if the GNU were to come under renewed assault. That deep level of support was almost certainly the decisive factor allowing Dbeibah and the GNU to retain the upper hand amid the recent unrest in Tripoli. While Turkey's military intervention had guaranteed it a seat at Libya's political table, Ankara has also secured oil and gas exploration deals with successive Tripoli-based administrations, beginning with a Memorandum of Understanding signed with the GNA in 2019 and later ratified by Dbeibah's government in October 2022. Although the Tripoli Court of Appeal ruled against the deal in February 2024, the GNU ultimately overrode the court's decision. That underscores how Ankara's outreach to Tripoli's powerbrokers has advanced its maritime and energy interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, even as Turkey's offshore territorial claims sparked tensions with Greece and Egypt, which said they infringed upon their own sovereignty. Moreover, Turkey's decision to side with Dbeibah in a spat with former Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha, who was previously a key Turkish ally, demonstrated Ankara's willingness to recalibrate quickly to maintain its influence. Indeed, beyond securing Tripoli, Ankara has also set its sights on improving its position in eastern Libya. After Storm Daniel and the collapse of Derna's dams in September 2023—described as 'Libya's 9/11'—Turkey provided swift humanitarian assistance, opening channels of communication with authorities in the East. In April, too, Turkey hosted Saddam Haftar—the son of Khalifa Haftar—for meetings with the Turkish defense minister and other military officials in Ankara, where they discussed supplying equipment and providing training to LNA forces. This marked a striking shift, considering that only a few years earlier, Khalifa Haftar denounced Turkish involvement in western Libya as an 'occupation.' Yet, with Khalifa Haftar now 81, Ankara appears to be hedging its bets by cultivating ties with Saddam, who has positioned himself as his father's successor. Evidently, Turkey is complementing its military power in the West with soft power and defense ties in the East, which would mean that any future political solution to Libya's divisions would almost certainly necessitate Turkish engagement. Russia's engagement in Libya has also been consequential, but was previously subtler. Moscow had initially maintained a modest military presence in the form of Wagner mercenaries and Syrian fighters aligned with Haftar's LNA. Since the October 2020 ceasefire, Russia has deepened its footprint, while cementing considerable influence in Libya's South and East. Moscow has become more open in its ties to Haftar, particularly following the fall of former dictator Bashar Al-Assad's regime in Syria. In May, both Khalifa and Saddam Haftar traveled to Moscow for Russia's World War II Victory Day celebrations, where they met senior officials and discussed expanding military cooperation, for which the elder Haftar expressed his gratitude. The deepening relationship comes at a time when Moscow is looking to reassert its Mediterranean presence following its loss of influence in Syria, which had guaranteed it an Eastern Mediterranean naval base in Tartus. In February, satellite imagery showed Russia's development of the Maaten Al Sarra airbase in southern Libya, where it had shipped S-300 and S-400 air defense systems. Around 1,000 Russian military personnel have also relocated to Libya from Syria. The added forces complement the former Wagner mercenaries—officially incorporated into Russia's military as the Africa Corps following Yevgeny Prighozin's death in 2023—who are already embedded within the LNA. Moreover, Russia reportedly seeks a naval base in Libya, with Tobruk itself cited as a potential location. Russia's growing influence with the LNA would likely make approval for building a naval base easier. Haftar's forces depend on Russia for their logistical networks and reportedly even require Russian approval to use certain military installations, indicating how much leverage Moscow has established over him. Yet rather than being an unconditional ally, Russia arguably views Haftar as a means to an end, a tool to maintain influence in Libya and extend its reach into Africa. Still, the fact Haftar and his son have engaged with Ankara, too, shows that the family is willing to leverage the competing powers to gain recognition. Thus, Russia and Haftar's ties can be deemed a 'marriage of convenience.' Indeed, like Turkey, Russia has also looked to the rival camp to hedge its bets. Moscow's outreach to Tripoli has gained momentum over the past two years, with a delegation traveling to Tripoli to meet with GNU officials—including Dbeibah—as recently as April. Beyond potentially allowing Moscow to use western Libya as a launchpad for power projection deeper into Africa, this balancing act advances Russia's energy interests, as Russian firms are now in talks with the Tripoli-based Presidential Council, which is aligned with the GNU, for exploration deals. Russia's entrenched role serves as a geopolitical bargaining chip, compelling European powers to engage with Moscow and advancing President Vladimir Putin's stated vision of a multipolar world order. There is also a potential risk of Russia of weaponizing Libya's energy sector; Haftar has previously blockaded oil facilities to pressure Tripoli, a tactic Moscow could exploit to disrupt or manipulate European energy supplies. Even short of active sabotage, a future Russian naval base in Libya would almost certainly raise alarm in European capitals. Yet all of this would likely be consolidated within a frozen conflict, one increasingly sustained by competing Russian and Turkish involvement. Still, the balance is increasingly tilting in Ankara's favor. That's showcased by how European states, which have remained reactive to events in Libya, have shifted their approach toward Turkey, especially in light of U.S. President Donald Trump's shaky support for NATO and Ukraine. While France was long a vocal critic of Turkish influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, it has softened its criticism of Ankara's foreign policy moves in recent years. Moreover, under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Italy has deepened engagement with Turkey, viewing Ankara as indispensable to securing its goals in Libya of stemming migration and securing energy contracts. This was highlighted in Meloni's meeting with Erdogan on April 30, which also saw the two sides strengthen defense ties. Meanwhile, Washington has largely disengaged from Libya's conflict, aside from recent inflammatory suggestions that it would relocate migrants and even displaced Palestinians from Gaza to Libya. Both proposals were swiftly condemned, in part due to the country's lack of security and high risk of human trafficking. With Western involvement waning, any U.N.-backed efforts to unify the rival administrations under a single government, push for domestic reform or hold elections will almost certainly require Turkish buy-in. Persuading Moscow to scale back support for Haftar and relinquish its strategic foothold in the Mediterranean and Africa, will prove far more difficult. One pragmatic antidote to the stalemate could be deeper Western coordination with Turkey on Libya, aimed at forging a political solution. Yet with European Union member states showing varying appetites for engaging with Ankara, combined with Washington's continued detachment, Turkey is likely to maintain its 'adversarial collaboration' with Moscow. Turkey and Russia will likely continue their delicate balancing act and avoid risking direct confrontation. After all, the May 26 meeting in Moscow between President Putin and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan underscored their shared interest in maintaining communication, particularly over Ukraine and Black Sea stability, and avoiding a deeper rupture in ties. As for Libya, a continued stalemate risks entrenching the country's divisions rather than resolving them. If so, May's clashes, like last year's tensions in Tripoli that rattled oil markets and threatened Libya's banking system, may end up being a preview of even worse instability ahead. Jonathan Fenton-Harvey is a British analyst and journalist whose work has focused largely on Gulf Cooperation Council affairs, as well as geopolitical and economic issues pertaining to the wider Middle East and Indo-Pacific. He has worked with or written for a wide range of think tanks and publications based in the U.S., the U.K. and the Middle East. The post Turkey and Russia Hold the Keys to Libya's Future appeared first on World Politics Review.
Observer
24-05-2025
- Politics
- Observer
African Union urges permanent ceasefire in Libya
ADDIS ABABA: The African Union called for a permanent ceasefire in Libya on Saturday after deadly clashes in the capital earlier this month and demonstrations demanding the prime minister's resignation. The latest fighting in the conflict-torn North African country pitted an armed group aligned with the Tripoli-based government against factions it has sought to dismantle, resulting in at least eight dead, according to the United Nations. Despite a lack of a formal ceasefire, the clashes mostly ended last week, with the Libya Defence Ministry saying this week that efforts towards a truce were "ongoing". On Saturday, the AU's Peace and Security Council condemned the recent violence, calling for an "unconditional and permanent ceasefire". In a statement on X, the council urged "inclusive, Libyan-led reconciliation", adding that it "appeals for no external interference". Libya is split between the UN-recognised government in Tripoli, led by Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah, and a rival administration in the east. The country has remained deeply divided since the 2011 Nato-backed revolt. The clashes were sparked by the killing of an armed faction leader by a group aligned with Dbeibah's government — the 444 Brigade, which later fought a third group, the Radaa force that controls parts of eastern Tripoli and the city's airport. It came after Dbeibah announced a string of executive orders seeking to dismantle Radaa and dissolve other Tripoli-based armed groups but excluding the 444 Brigade. — AFP
Epoch Times
20-05-2025
- Politics
- Epoch Times
Dozens of Corpses Found in Libyan Hospital After Clashes Between Rival Militias
At least 58 unidentified bodies have been found in a Tripoli hospital after recent clashes between rival militias in western Libya, according to local authorities. Libya's interior ministry said investigations were underway to determine the identities of the bodies, 23 of which have so far been examined. 'All necessary legal procedures have been taken, including documenting data and collecting samples,' the ministry said in a statement. The bodies were found on May 19 in a hospital controlled by a local militia whose leader was killed last week in an attack by a rival armed faction. According to the interior ministry, the bodies were found in the Abu Salim Hospital, which is located in Tripoli's densely populated Abu Salim district. Two days earlier, nine other unidentified bodies were found at the Al-Khadra Hospital in the same district, authorities said. Related Stories 4/24/2024 5/17/2025 Until recently, the Abu Salim district was largely controlled by an armed faction known as the Stabilization Support Apparatus (SSA). On May 12, SSA leader Abdulghani Kikli, popularly known as Ghaniwa, was killed in Tripoli by a rival armed faction known as the 444th Brigade. Simultaneously, SSA units elsewhere in western Libya were attacked and defeated by armed factions aligned with Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, leader of Libya's Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU). The following day, fierce clashes erupted in Tripoli between local militias aligned with al-Dbeibah and the self-styled Special Deterrence Force, or 'Rada,' an armed faction opposed to the prime minister. According to the United Nations, at least eight civilians were killed in the fighting. After two days of clashes, Libya's defense ministry said that 'regular forces in coordination with the relevant security authorities' were taking 'the necessary measures to ensure calm, including the deployment of neutral units.' The neutralization of the SSA appeared to consolidate the power of al-Dbeibah, Libya's internationally recognized prime minister and an ally of Turkey. Like the GNU, the SSA had operated within the framework of a Presidential Council that came to power in 2021 through a political process backed by the U.N. In the same year, scheduled elections failed to take place due to ongoing differences between rival factions, allowing al-Dbeibah to remain in power. Libyan protesters gather in Martyrs' Square to call for the resignation of the national unity government, in Tripoli, Libya, on May 16, 2025. AFP via Getty Images Calls for Prime Minister to Resign On May 16, three GNU ministers abruptly resigned after hundreds of protesters gathered in Tripoli's Martyrs' Square to demand al-Dbeibah's resignation and fresh elections. Demonstrators accused al-Dbeibah of failing to restore calm to the capital and curtail the power and influence of armed factions. On the same day, the U.N.'s Mission in Libya expressed concern about ongoing violence, urging all parties to ensure the safety of Tripoli's civilian population. In a televised address on May 17, al-Dbeibah said the elimination of armed groups operating outside state control was an 'ongoing project.' 'We will not spare anyone who continues to engage in corruption or extortion,' he said. 'Our goal is to create a Libya free of militias and corruption.' In a statement released on May 18, al-Dbeibah's office reiterated that the GNU sought to 'eliminate armed formations outside the police and army institutions.' Libya has remained in a state of relative turmoil since 2011, when a NATO-backed uprising led to the ouster and death of longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi. In 2014, the country was divided between two rival political forces, with the Tripoli-based GNU ruling western Libya—despite internal divisions—and veteran army commander Khalifa Haftar holding sway in the country's east. Reuters contributed to this report.
Kuwait Times
19-05-2025
- Politics
- Kuwait Times
Libya's Tripoli premier calls on armed groups to align with state
TRIPOLI: Libya's UN-backed premier Saturday called on armed groups to align themselves with 'state institutions' after days of deadly clashes in Tripoli and protests demanding his resignation. 'We will welcome all those who choose to stand with the state,' said Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah in a televised address. 'We will sideline those who resort to blackmail and corruption. Our goal is a Libya free of militias and corruption.' Days of clashes in the capital have pitted an armed group aligned with the Tripoli-based government against groups it has been seeking to dismantle. Libya is split between the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, led by Dbeibah, and a rival administration in the east controlled by the family of military strongman Khalifa Haftar. The North African country has remained deeply divided since the 2011 NATO-backed revolt that toppled and killed longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi. The recent fights have killed at least eight people, said the UN, while the authorities have yet to release an official tally. The clashes had been triggered by the killing of Abdelghani Al-Kikli, head of the Support and Stability Apparatus (SSA) faction, by the Dbeibah-aligned 444 Brigade. A second wave of clashes pitted the 444 Brigade against another group, the Radaa force, which controls parts of eastern Tripoli and several key state institutions. And a string of executive orders had sought to dismantle Radaa and dissolve other Tripoli-based armed groups, excluding the 444 Brigade. Dbeibah's latest address mainly concerned Radaa, a group controlling parts of eastern Tripoli. 'Trying to sow discord between us and Souq al-Joumaa (a Radaa stronghold) is bound to fail,' Dbeibah said, acknowledging 'a shared mistake' when speaking of the 'clashes in the heart of Tripoli in neighborhoods full of civilians'. He said certain militias 'had grown excessively, to the point of controlling the entire political, financial, economic, and even social landscape'. He said an SSA associate 'took control of six banks, and those who dared to oppose him disappeared', citing abuses by among others Kikli's nephew, who 'coldly executed 10 people recently'. Another SSA associate, Ousama Al Masri Nejim, is wanted by the International Criminal Court for acts of torture and the rape of a young girl, Dbeibah noted. 'For the first time, I can tell you that you can hope to get rid of the militias,' Dbeibah said, vowing to remove 'those who prioritize blackmail and corruption'. Yet Tripoli residents have taken to the streets for two consecutive days, demanding Dbeibah's resignation after the deadly fighting. Some 500 people protested on Saturday after thousands of other anti-government demonstrators had gathered at Martyrs' Square in central Tripoli on Friday before marching on the premier's office. The Friday rally had been followed by one police officer being shot dead by unknown attackers when he was 'targeted while securing' Dbeibah's office, according to the government. Tripoli saw signs of normalcy on Friday, with flights resuming, shops reopening and people returning to work. But despite that, the capital's political situation remained volatile. Local media reported late Friday that six ministers and deputy ministers from Dbeibah's cabinet had resigned. Only two confirmed their departure. Several municipal councils in western Tripoli voiced support for the protests demanding that Dbeibah quit. Khaled Al-Mishri, head of the High Council of State in the capital, said he had begun talks with the eastern-based parliament to 'choose a national figure to form a new government'. Dbeibah, meanwhile, met tribal elders in the capital on Saturday and said his government was 'trying to respond quickly' to the recent developments in the city. - AFP
Japan Today
18-05-2025
- Politics
- Japan Today
U.S. embassy in Tripoli denies report of planned relocation of Palestinians to Libya
Palestinians make their way with belongings as they fled their homes, after Israeli air strikes, in the northern Gaza Strip May 16, 2025. REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa/File Photo The U.S. embassy in Libya denied on Sunday a report that the U.S. government was working on a plan to relocate Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Libya. On Thursday, NBC News said the Trump administration is working on a plan to permanently relocate as many as one million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Libya. NBC News cited five people with knowledge of the matter, including two people with direct knowledge and a former U.S. official. "The report of alleged plans to relocate Gazans to Libya is untrue," the U.S. embassy said on the X platform. The Tripoli-based internationally-recognized Government of National Unity was not available for immediate comment. Trump has previously said he would like the United States to take over the Gaza Strip and its Palestinian population resettled elsewhere. Palestinians vehemently reject any plan involving them leaving Gaza, comparing such ideas to the 1948 "Nakba," or "catastrophe," when hundreds of thousands were dispossessed of their homes in the war that led to the creation of Israel. When Trump first floated his idea after taking the presidency, he said he wanted U.S. allies Egypt and Jordan to take in people from Gaza. Both states rejected the idea, which drew global condemnation, with Palestinians, Arab nations and the U.N. saying it would amount to ethnic cleansing. In April, Trump said Palestinians could be moved "around to different countries, and you have plenty of countries that will do that". During a visit to Qatar this week, Trump reiterated his desire to take over the territory, saying he wanted to see it become a "freedom zone" and that there was nothing left to save. Trump has previously said he wants to turn Gaza into the "Riviera of the Middle East." © Thomson Reuters 2025.
