Latest news with #TropicalWeatherOutlook
Yahoo
21-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
National Hurricane Center watching stormy area in Atlantic, Florida under heat advisory
The odds of an area of disorganized weather developing in the Atlantic increased slightly moving into July 21, but forecasters say environmental conditions will slow any further development by midweek. Floridians should probably worry more about the heat dome threatening to break heat records across the South. "Environmental conditions are marginally conducive, and any development should be slow to occur while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph." the National Hurricane Center said in their Tropical Weather Outlook, which currently gives the area a 20% chance of development over the next week. The NHC is also tracking two tropical waves in the Caribbean. ➤Florida flips from watching tropics to trying to stay cool. Heat advisory issued ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Dexter. Historically, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives Aug. 15. The last two named storms of the season — Barry and Chantal — developed earlier than normal. Heat index alert: Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida Meanwhile the blazing heat continues in the Sunshine State, with an expanding heat dome spreading across the Deep South to the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, National Weather Service forecasters said. As of July 21, the entire state is under a heat advisory and roughly two-thirds of Florida from the Panhandle down into Central and Southwest regions may be facing major heat risks. There's a heat advisory for North Florida and the Panhandle (and parts of southeast Alabama and southern Georgia) running from 11 a.m. ET through 7 p.m. with heat index values up to 112 expected. Advisories for Central, Southwest and South Florida are scheduled for noon through 6 p.m., with heat index values up to 112 possible. Be careful going outside If you have to, and stay hydrated. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 21: NOAA Hurricane Center tracks tropical disturbance in Atlantic A tropical wave is located about 900 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low pressure located about 900 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles have increased some during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are generally favorable for some additional development over the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By the middle of this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Formation chance through 48 hours: Low, 20 percent Formation chance through 7 days: Low, 20 percent What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean? The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome. The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high. The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception. "If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said. Florida weather radar for July 21, 2025 National Weather Service Florida forecast for July 21 : A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 105. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tallahassee, central Panhandle: A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3 p.m. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97. Heat index values as high as 110. Northwest wind around 5 mph. : Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3 p.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 107. West wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. : Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2 p m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 108. West wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. : A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Heat index values as high as 100. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%. : A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 4 p.m and 5 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 108. Light and variable wind becoming west northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. ➤ How to set up emergency cellphone notifications for flash flood warnings and safety tips ➤ Excessive rainfall forecast What else is happening in the tropics? The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical waves. Tropical wave 1: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 30W from 05N to 18N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm w of the wave axis from 10N to 12N and within 150 nm east of the wave axis from 12N to 14N. Tropical wave 2: A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W from 03N to 17N, part of the area of disturbance mentioned above. Environmental conditions are generally favorable for some additional development of this system over the next day or so while it moves west- northwestward, however, by the middle of this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. AccuWeather said there's also a potential for tropical development off the central coast of the U.S. July 22-25. 2025 hurricane season so far An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Here's when this year's named storms have developed, compared to historical averages: Tropical Storm Andrea: formed June 24. Average start date: June 20 Tropical Storm Barry: formed June 29. Average start date: July 17 Tropical Storm Chantal: formed July 5. Average start date: Aug. 3. Next up, Dexter: Average state date: Aug. 15, with the average first hurricane forming Aug. 11. Hurricane names for 2025 season Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them: Andrea (June 24) Barry (June 29) Chantal (July 5) Dexter: DEHK-ster Erin: AIR-rin Fernand: fair-NAHN Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah Jerry: JEHR-ee Karen: KAIR-ren Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh Melissa: meh-LIH-suh Nestor: NES-tor Olga: OAL-guh Pablo: PAHB-lo Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en Tanya: TAHN-yuh Van: van Wendy: WEN-dee When is the Atlantic hurricane season? The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. When is the peak of hurricane season? National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Why does NHC say 'tropical cyclone' on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm? Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text What's next? We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Hurricane Center increases chances storm development
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Keeping an eye on the tropics this July 4th: National Hurricane Center tracking disturbance
As Georgia gears up for fireworks, backyard barbecues, and beach getaways this Fourth of July, there's also potential tropical trouble brewing just offshore. While the state isn't under immediate threat from a named storm, meteorologists are keeping a close eye on a developing weather system stretching across Florida from the gulf and into the Atlantic, brushing close to Georgia's coast. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given this slow-moving system a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm over the next week. For now, Georgia isn't looking at a direct hit or hurricane conditions. "Towards the end of this week into next weekend, an area of low pressure could develop from a remnant frontal boundary near or along the southeastern U.S. Atlantic and or Gulf coasts," the Tropical Weather Outlook from 8 a.m. June 29 states. "Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as it drifts slowly just off the U.S. coastline." Farther west in the Gulf of Mexico is Tropical Storm Barry, the season's second named storm. Though Barry is not expected to impact Georgia directly, it's a reminder that hurricane season is heating up. Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them: Andrea: AN-dree uh Barry: BAIR-ree Chantal: shahn-TAHL Dexter: DEHK-ster Erin: AIR-rin Fernand: fair-NAHN Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah Jerry: JEHR-ee Karen: KAIR-ren Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh Melissa: meh-LIH-suh Nestor: NES-tor Olga: OAL-guh Pablo: PAHB-lo Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en Tanya: TAHN-yuh Van: van Wendy: WEN-dee Vanessa Countryman is the Trending Topics Reporter for the the Deep South Connect Team Georgia. Email her at Vcountryman@ This article originally appeared on Savannah Morning News: Will a tropical storm impact July 4 celebrations in Georgia?
Yahoo
30-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Keeping an eye on the tropics this July 4th: National Hurricane Center tracking disturbance
As Georgia gears up for fireworks, backyard barbecues, and beach getaways this Fourth of July, there's also potential tropical trouble brewing just offshore. While the state isn't under immediate threat from a named storm, meteorologists are keeping a close eye on a developing weather system stretching across Florida from the gulf and into the Atlantic, brushing close to Georgia's coast. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given this slow-moving system a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm over the next week. For now, Georgia isn't looking at a direct hit or hurricane conditions. "Towards the end of this week into next weekend, an area of low pressure could develop from a remnant frontal boundary near or along the southeastern U.S. Atlantic and or Gulf coasts," the Tropical Weather Outlook from 8 a.m. June 29 states. "Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as it drifts slowly just off the U.S. coastline." Farther west in the Gulf of Mexico is Tropical Storm Barry, the season's second named storm. Though Barry is not expected to impact Georgia directly, it's a reminder that hurricane season is heating up. Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them: Andrea: AN-dree uh Barry: BAIR-ree Chantal: shahn-TAHL Dexter: DEHK-ster Erin: AIR-rin Fernand: fair-NAHN Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah Jerry: JEHR-ee Karen: KAIR-ren Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh Melissa: meh-LIH-suh Nestor: NES-tor Olga: OAL-guh Pablo: PAHB-lo Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en Tanya: TAHN-yuh Van: van Wendy: WEN-dee Vanessa Countryman is the Trending Topics Reporter for the the Deep South Connect Team Georgia. Email her at Vcountryman@ This article originally appeared on Savannah Morning News: Will a tropical storm impact July 4 celebrations in Georgia?
USA Today
29-06-2025
- Climate
- USA Today
July 4th weather: National Hurricane Center tracks disturbance over Florida
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a disturbance over Florida that stretches most of the Gulf coast across the state and into the Atlantic Ocean as far north as off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts that could have an effect on the Fourth of July weekend. "Towards the end of this week into next weekend, an area of low pressure could develop from a remnant frontal boundary near or along the southeastern U.S. Atlantic and or Gulf coasts," the Tropical Weather Outlook from 8 a.m. June 29 states. "Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as it drifts slowly just off the U.S. coastline." The chance of development remained low, at 20 percent over the next seven days, forecasters said. However, rain chances are increasing along Florida's Gulf Coast, with some areas expected to see rainfall totals that could reach double digits over the next seven days, according to the National Weather Service. The heaviest rain is expected Thursday, July 3 as the monitored system moves over the state, the National Weather Service office in Ruskin/Tampa Bay said Sunday morning. In the western Gulf of America, heavy rains were beginning Sunday morning as Tropical Depression Two caused the National Hurricane Center to issue a tropical storm warning for the eastern coast of Mexico. In an 11 a.m. advisory, The National Hurricane Center announced that aircraft data has indicated that the depression turned into Tropical Storm Barry. The National Hurricane Center was also watching four tropical waves. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location There's been only one named storm in the Atlantic basin so far this season. While in the short term no tropical development is expected by forecasters in the short term − partly due to a wall of Saharan dust blowing by Florida − that could change soon. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m., June 29. Heavy rainfall expected on Florida's Gulf Coast over next seven days Rain chances are increasing along Florida's Gulf Coast for the next several days, with heavy rainfall contributing to flash flooding at times, according to the National Weather Service regional forecast offices. Throughout the weather service's Tallahassee region, daily rain chances are over 85 percent through Wednesday, July 2. Predicted rainfall totals further south on the coast creep up into the double digits through the next seven days, with the heaviest rain expected Thursday, July 3 as the system the National Hurricane Center is watching moves over the state, the weather service office in Ruskin/Tampa Bay said Sunday morning. Will tropical weather impact Florida and Palm Beach County? National Hurricane Center forecasters said Sunday, June 29, that looking forward to the Fourth of July week, and weekend, an area of low pressure could develop near or along the southeastern U.S. Atlantic and or Gulf coasts. Formation chance through 48 hours, low: near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days, low: 20 percent. What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean? The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome. The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high. The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception. "If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said. Is there a hurricane coming to Florida or Palm Beach County? There's no tropical system threatening Florida at this time. However, AccuWeather forecasters are warning there is a potential for tropical development in the Gulf or off the southeast coast of the U.S. in early July, the holiday weekend. 'The potential is definitely there off the Southeast Coast or in the Gulf," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert via email. "The water temperatures are warm enough to support tropical development in that area and the wind shear looks to be fairly low overall in that area.' 'We're forecasting a low chance that anything develops at this point, but this time of the year, this is where we would typically see tropical activity spin up in late June and early July, If anything develops over the next two weeks, it will happen close to home. "There's nothing unusual here. We would typically look close to home for possible tropical development early in the season. If anything develops, it's likely that rainfall would be the primary concern. 'A cold front during the first couple of days of July will come off the southeast coast and stall. The tail of the front will essentially extend across Florida and into the Gulf. If that frontal boundary stalls for a couple of days and we see any convection, that's how we could end up with tropical development next week." Where is Tropical Storm Barry? At 2 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 96.6 West. The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph, with the motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to make landfall and then move inland over eastern Mexico later this afternoon or tonight. Location: About 50 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico and about 130 miles southeast of Tampico, Mexico Moving: Northwest or 315 degrees at 12 mph Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph with higher gusts NOAA Hurricane Center's forecast on what to expect from Tropical Storm Barry Some slight intensification is possible before the system reaches the coast of eastern Mexico by this evening but rapid weakening is expected after the system moves inland. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Barry is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning shortly. WATER: Seas have increased to 8 to 11 feet and will likely build further through today. Tropical waves Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Barry. See expected path Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. Don't be caught off guard. Tropical activity expected to pick up 'We expect tropical activity to pick up later on in the hurricane season. This very well could be a back-half loaded season," DaSilva said. Right now, dry air and wind shear are helping keep tropical storms from developing, which isn't unusual for early in the hurricane season, which started June 1. "The second named storm in the Atlantic basin typically doesn't develop until mid to late July. We are on pace with the historical average. Records show that the first hurricane of the season typically doesn't develop until Aug. 11," DaSilva said. Predictions issued by NOAA, AccuWeather and Colorado State University all forecast an above-normal hurricane season. 2025 hurricane names Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them: Showers, thunderstorms could affect Fourth of July plans "We're forecasting a wet pattern across the Southeast in early July, regardless of any tropical development," DaSilva said. 'Much of Florida and the Southeast will see plenty of showers and thunderstorms during early July, and that could impact outdoor plans for the Fourth of July. 'Northern Florida and the Panhandle will see more rainfall than South Florida in early July.' Is any Saharan dust approaching Florida? 'There is a big plume of dust coming across the Atlantic right now. We expect more Saharan dust to reach portions of the southern U.S. from South Florida to Texas. 'We could have some Saharan dust high in the sky for the Fourth of July, especially across South Florida.' 'We could see some dirty rain across Florida that can make a mess on your car and other surfaces outside, thanks to the Saharan dust.' Florida weather radar for June 29, 2025 Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida When is hurricane season in Florida? The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. When is the peak of hurricane season? The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Why does NHC say 'tropical cyclone' on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm? Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text What's next? We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Tropical Storm Alvin brewing in the eastern Pacific Ocean, hurricane forecasters say
The tropics have awakened from their winter slumber, and Tropical Storm Alvin may soon be upon us. In the eastern Pacific Ocean near Central America, meteorologists say the atmosphere is becoming more favorable for tropical development. "Satellite imagery shows showers and thunderstorms becoming better organized near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico," the National Hurricane Center said in a Tropical Weather Outlook from May 27. "While the system still lacks a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions are favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form tonight or on Wednesday as the low moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph," the hurricane center said midafternoon on May 27. The center gives the system a 100% chance of development. If it becomes a named system, it would be called Alvin – the first named tropical cyclone anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere this year. As a refresher, a tropical depression becomes a named storm when its sustained wind speed reaches 39 mph. The average date for the first tropical storm of the eastern Pacific season is June 10, according to the National Hurricane Center. "If a storm forms soon, it would be well ahead of the historical pace – and much earlier than last year's first storm. In 2024, Aletta didn't form until July 4, marking the latest start to an eastern Pacific hurricane season in the satellite era," said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in a seasonal hurricane forecast released May 22, said that a below-average eastern Pacific hurricane season is most likely. An average season sees 15 named storms. Eastern Pacific storms and hurricanes primarily stay out to sea and seldom affect the U.S. mainland, although some storms do hit the west coast of Mexico and remnant moisture from the storms can affect the U.S. Southwest. (This story has been updated to add new information.) This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tropical Storm Alvin brewing in the eastern Pacific Ocean
